PBP: 2020 House and Senate Elections (Maybe even State level)

Discussion in 'Elections' started by ceezmad, May 16, 2019.

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Will Congress stay divided after the 2020 election

Poll closed Nov 6, 2020.
  1. Yes, different parties will control each chamber.

    17 vote(s)
    45.9%
  2. No, Republicans will keep the Senate and retake the House of Reps.

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. No, Democrats will keep the House of Reps and retake the Senate.

    18 vote(s)
    48.6%
  4. No, a great 3rd party take over of Congrees will happen.

    2 vote(s)
    5.4%
  1. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    #351 xtomx, Mar 18, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2020
    Actually, it was his dad who was around forever.
    Bill Lipinski held he seat from 1983 until he stepped aside in 2005.

    Here is the bullcrap story. Bill Lipinski won the 2004 Primary and then decided to "retire" and convinced party bosses to name his son as the nominee for the general election (Well, the "Lipinski" signs were already printed).

    Dan Lipinski won, despite about half the people not realizing they were not voting the "original" Lipinski.

    Dan Lipinski has had it since.

    But, yes, he is a useless wanker.

    That should have been his campaign slogan:
    Useless Wanker 2020!

    (I would say that is a "slogan I could get behind" but that would sound really weird)
     
    sitruc and charlie15 repped this.
  2. Funkfoot

    Funkfoot Member+

    May 18, 2002
    New Orleans, LA
    That's pretty slick. I guess it's a safe dem seat, since these guys kept getting reelected?
     
    xtomx repped this.
  3. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Extremely safe.
     
  4. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Almost all my wife's childhood friends live in that district, being white flighters from the city's Southwest Side. We know those people well. I would not have predicted that they would choose a progressive over a machine Democrat. There really must be something to Illinois's blue flu.
     
    xtomx repped this.
  5. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Not to mention that Dan Lipinski is:

    Useless Wanker 2020!

    Still hard to believe, though.
     
  6. charlie15

    charlie15 Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    Bethesda, Md
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I am just fine with challenging guys like Lipinski. This dude is an embarrassment.
    Good he is out.
     
    Chris M. and xtomx repped this.
  7. xtomx

    xtomx Member+

    Chicago Fire
    Sep 6, 2001
    Northern Wisconsin, but not far from civilization
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    I am fine with a challenge to any Congressional seat, even those I like.
    It is a democracy and no member of Congress has a "right" to their seat.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  8. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Amen. I was in the minority when people were complaining about Al Franken. Whether he got a raw deal or not, we are talking about a state of 5 million people. Find someone who didn't forcibly stick their tongue down someone's throat. [Ducks].
     
  9. Q*bert Jones III

    Q*bert Jones III The People's Poet

    Feb 12, 2005
    Woodstock, NY
    Club:
    DC United
    Did Franken do that? I thought he was hounded out of office because of that dumb joke picture where he pretended to touch some Republican broad's boobs but didn't.

    We know that Franken struggled with, and ultimately defeated, alcohol. I've no idea of the timing but does it change our thinking if he was an alcoholic when he pretended to grope the Republican lady?

    I just don't understand why Republicans can say, "Well I found Jesus so we get to ignore my rape of a child and the theft of their cookie jar to pay for my coke bender." Yet every Democrat has to be, and always have been, 100% perfect.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  10. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Franken was a bad boy on that trip. He wrote a skit with the woman in which he kissed her. During a practice session, he slipped her the tongue “as a joke”. There was also a member of his staff that alleged he tried to kiss her without consent and a number of women that said he grabbed their butts during campaign stops.
     
    Chris M. and Q*bert Jones III repped this.
  11. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Yep. I don’t give any of them a pass. It is beyond disgraceful that Trump is President. But back to the post I was commenting on, none of these people are entitled to their positions. Same with Supreme Court justices. I could have given Trump 5 conservative women (who I don’t agree with ideologically) that would have been infinitely better candidates then Kavanaugh. Is it fair that Democrats go down for things that Republicans don’t? No, but I don’t shed any tears for any of them.
     
  12. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    I’m researching my candidates. “Berniecrats” are automatic votes for me down-ballot
     
  13. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #363 EvanJ, Mar 19, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2020
    I read that Lipinski is against abortion and might be a Democrat in name only. IOW Lipinski is farther to the right than Biden and the rest of the moderate Democrat presidential candidates (including moderates who dropped out). I voted for one Republican out of five in 2019 and one Republican out of seven in 2018. There are many judges to choose from, and I don't vote for them. Many things Democrats care about are things that I'm not interested in. It's not that I disagree with Democrats about them. It's just that they're not reasons why I vote for Democrats. I think a public option should be tried before M4A. I don't support M4A now, but if income and insurance inequality remains the same or gets bigger, I might support M4A at some point. I feel similarly about the minimum wage. The federal minimum wage hasn't increased in a long time, so it has decreased relative to inflation. The minimum wage should be increased. However, a sudden minimum wage of $15 per hour would make businesses lay off workers and/or increase prices. The top people could afford to increase wages, leave prices alone, and make less money, but they won't do that.

    FiveThirtyEight's polls have Jones losing and the Democrats gaining Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. The most recent poll in Michigan has Democratic incumbent Peters down 1, but FiveThirtyEight gives that pollster a grade of C/D, and the pollster before that who's rated B+ had Peters up 6. In 2016, every state voted the same for president and senator. If the Republicans win both in Michigan, Trump will probably win and the Republicans will probably keep the Senate. Michigan is the most populated swing state that has a Senate election in 2020 as none of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania have one. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_elections#Pre-election_predictions doesn't think the Democrats have as good a chance as the most recent polls do. They have Gardner as the only Republican incumbent who is a tossup or Lean D from all five sources. All five sources have Arizona as a tossup, and all five have Maine and North Carolina as tossup or Lean R (Inside Elections has Maine as Tilt R which is a category that other sites don't use).

    In New Hampshire, they have Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen up 3 on Governor Chris Sununu and up 5 on former senator Kelly Ayotte, who had the other seat for one term and lost 48.0%-47.8% to Maggie Hassan (who was governor then) in 2016. According to Wikipedia, Sununu said he won't run, and Ayotte has not declared. The filing deadline is June 12. Shaheen is up 19, 21, and 24 on the three Republicans who have declared so far, so the Republicans should hope Ayotte runs or Sununu changes his mind. New Hampshire governors have two years terms rather than four. They don't have any polls from Montana since Bullock entered. Also important is that the most recent poll has McConnell tied with Amy McGrath, and the poll before that had McConnell up 3. According to Wikipedia, five Republicans and nine Democrats are running. The fourteen candidates is the second most of any seat behind the twenty candidate for Georgia's special election with appointee Kelly Loeffler. Kentucky's primaries are May 19. Georgia will have many candidates on Election Day with a runoff on January 5, so it's possible that runoff will determine control of the Senate, in which case a lot of advertising money could be spent on it in December. The other state that could have a Senate runoff after Election Day is Louisiana on December 5, but it would be shocking if the Democrats gained that seat.
     
    ceezmad repped this.
  14. Boandlkramer

    Boandlkramer Member+

    Apr 9, 2009
    Samma Weltmeister!
    Club:
    FC Bayern München
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
  15. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    @EvanJ I don't know if NC is a swing state, but it's more populous than Michigan.
     
  16. EvanJ

    EvanJ Member+

    Manchester United
    United States
    Mar 30, 2004
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I go by the amount of House members each state has, which is what matters in the Electoral College even if how the states rank has changed since the 2010 Census. NC has 13 House members and MI has 14.
     
  17. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The news about Kelly Loeffler's stock transactions have to give the Dem a shot in that race.

    Psychologically, many people don't like voting a straight ticket. Hell, I don't like and used to actively search for a Republican or 3 to vote for. I can see a decisive portion of conservative leaning GA voters saying, I'll vote for the Dem in that race. It makes voting straight party in all the other races better for your psyche.
     
    charlie15 repped this.
  18. American Brummie

    Jun 19, 2009
    There Be Dragons Here
    Club:
    Birmingham City FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The oncoming global depression is going to give Democrats across the country a shot in every race.

    Revisit my post in August and tell me I'm wrong.
     
    Boandlkramer and charlie15 repped this.
  19. Dr. Wankler

    Dr. Wankler Member+

    May 2, 2001
    The Electric City
    Club:
    Chicago Fire

    same here. But like you say, one party in particular has made that harder and harder to do over the course of my adult life. Damn shame, because my first vote was for a member of that party in the presidential primary of 1980.
     
  20. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    Yep, my first ever vote was for that same guy, that same year.
     
  21. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    American Brummie repped this.
  22. superdave

    superdave Member+

    Jul 14, 1999
    VB, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Remember that travel stock Loeffler sold?

    She had bought it just a few days before. It was when Trump did a tour of the CDC and regurgitated a bunch of happy talk.

    That's a bad, bad, bad look. If you're explaining, you're losing, and I see aLOT of explaining in her future.
     
  23. JohnR

    JohnR Member+

    Jun 23, 2000
    Chicago, IL
    I expect her to lose in November, if she faces a good candidate. Red won't be a popular color in November, and she is a bad red.
     
  24. Yoshou

    Yoshou Fan of the CCL Champ

    May 12, 2009
    Seattle
    Club:
    Seattle Sounders
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And don't forget, if more people vote, then Republicans can't win and we'll probably all be voting by mail in November.
     
  25. dapip

    dapip Member+

    Sep 5, 2003
    South Florida
    Club:
    Millonarios Bogota
    Nat'l Team:
    Colombia
    Why so optimistic?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...s-cancel-in-person-voting-tuesdays-elections/

    The filing escalated the chaos surrounding Wisconsin’s elections, which local and state administrators have been scrambling to prepare for as they also contend with mass shortages of poll workers and sanitizing supplies.

    Officials across Wisconsin said they would have to shutter hundreds of voting locations to contend with the worker shortage and struggled through the weekend to distribute sanitizing supplies to city and town election administrators. Earlier in the week, state election administrators said 111 cities and towns would not have enough poll workers on hand to operate a single voting location. Other localities consolidated dramatically; in Milwaukee, officials said just five polling places would open Tuesday, compared with the usual 180.

    As the threat of chaos and infection grew, Evers issued his surprise reversal Friday, urging state lawmakers to cancel in-person voting Tuesday and convened the special session. He called on the legislature to send mail-in ballots to every registered voter by May 19 and extend the receipt deadline for completed ballots to May 26.

    -----------------------------------------------

    The state’s Republican leadership was quick to come out in opposition. In a statement Friday, Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald charged Evers with flip-flopping and said that when it comes to essential services, “an election is just as important as getting take-out food.”

    “Our Republic must continue to function, and the many local government positions on the ballot must be filled so that municipalities can swiftly respond to the crisis at hand,” Vos and Fitzgerald wrote. “We continue to support what Governor Evers has supported for weeks: the election should continue as planned on Tuesday.”
     
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