It will cause problems for sports federations and leagues if you postpone the Olympics no matter to which date. But now I have the solution: Just change the calendar and add 14 days!. Nobody has anything planned from 32nd to 45th July or from 31th to 44th September. It would be the ideal period to hold the Olympics. Adding the 31th to 44th June would help to finish the national leagues. In two or three years you finish June with the 16th and everything is back in order.
China, from what I read, is starting to get back to normal. The number of new virus cases has dropped dramatically in China since the crisis there began 6 weeks ago. I think the same is true in South Korea. One American basketball player in China said people are out, going to restaurants, though he's had his temperature taken a lot while traveling around. I'm betting Europe and the U.S. will get a handle on this as well, and sooner rather than later. We got a late start accepting the reality of the virus in the U.S. thanks to you know who, and now everybody's been in a panic for a few days--but hopefully the government is getting its act together. If any country could pull off the Olympics while remaining vigilant to health concerns, it is Japan.
NYT article basically arguing that its coming to the point of being impossible to host this summer. For those behind a paywall, some of the points the article makes: --Virus hotspots may shift; if weather affects the virus, it may just move to the southern hemisphere (affecting athletes from Australia, Argentina, etc.). --Can millions safely convene without triggering a new outbreak? About 8 million tickets have been sold (5.5m to Japanese, the rest to elsewhere); add in 11,000 athletes plus media. --Some athletes can't currently train: those in lockdown or in places where social distancing or "shelter-in-place" orders have caused gyms to close...think gymnasts and swimmers; others are affected by border closures and can't travel to places where they would go to train (e.g. the USOC Training Center in Colorado is now closed to anyone new coming in but remains open to those who were already there) --Qualifying events have been cancelled or postponed to the point the IOC has told affected national Olympic committees to start thinking of new ways to select Olympic teams. Right now just 57% of the athletes have already qualified.
It really needs to be postponed. Move it to 2021 this way any summer leagues can basically plan the same schedule they have for 2020 for 2021.
A member of the Japanese Olympic Committee has broken away from the rest of the board by saying she believes the Olympics need to be postponed: https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...e-official-calls-for-postponement/2881032001/ Her argument is that it is putting athletes and others at risk by expecting them to continue to train with everything going on. A key piece of info in the article is that the Japanese Olympic Committee is next meeting on March 27; maybe they'll make a decision then. (But is it the Japanese committee or the IOC that makes the decision??)
A bit of background on this is that apparently on Wednesday there was a conference call with the IOC and athletes from around the world. Apparently, they were not given any direction nor a deadline for a decision, and were basically told "Find a way to train." Here's an article about it (its only indirectly about COVID-19, so it may be behind a paywall): https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/sports/olympics/olympics-coronavirus-athletes-training.html
There are many threads that have discussions about this but I thought I would add the following to this thread: Tokyo Olympics more likely to be canceled than moved or postponed because of coronavirus https://chicago.suntimes.com/2020/2/25/21152948/ioc-tokyo-olympics-coronavirus
I concur, though I can understand Japan's hesitancy of flashing down the drain 12 billion $ - just like that. It's rather obvious that Japan+IOC already planned and prepared for the worst and now they just stalling while staying realist. Each passing day when an official "go ahead" message is in effect, is one day less of additional cost for organizers. Beside sometimes "miracles" do happen read: virus relents globally (mutation is a double edged sword) and prototype vaccine is ready before the end of summer.
But the delay makes it harder and harder for people involved, from athletes to fans planing travel to people involved in all aspects of the games, to make plans and set schedules and even plan finances. I believe that they should just error on the side of caution and go ahead and cancel this Olympics. It is bad but being mistaken and making the outbreak worse is a much worse outcome. Money, in this case, should not even come into the discussion.
It absolutely needs to be postponed. No need to cancel. I think ppd it for a year is best. Doesn't disrupt any Fall leagues.
The NYT has a Q&A with the president of the IOC where he says they are "considering different scenarios" but also they "are not putting cancellation of the Games on the agenda." (He says that twice in the interview.) He also doesn't give any date for when they need to make a final decision. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/...s-bach-ioc.html#click=https://t.co/k7kyPMxP6M
Don't they have to be basically counting on COVID-19 being stamped out worldwide, not just in Asia? Because that's the only way to host the Olympics safely. Athletes and fans will be coming in from around the world, and if they're coming from a country where the outbreak is still happening, then they could bring COVID-19 with them and spread it there in Japan, and people could take it back home with them...unless you're going to tell athletes/fans from certain countries that they can't participate (because of an ongoing outbreak), which would defeat the purpose of the Olympics. Or everyone has to be quarantined or something (and we've seen how well many countries have NOT done with that). I think they're either going to have to postpone a year, which messes up the calendar for everyone, or cancel altogether, which would be devastating for athletes who only get one shot every 4 years, especially in sports that don't get any visibility outside of the Olympics, and would be a massive hit financially. I don't see any way to host this year, especially considering the athletes not training, the leagues (of all sports) being shut down, the qualifying for many sports that has not yet taken place, etc. I get that its not until July, but that'll come quickly, and I just wish they'd announce it sooner rather than later.
Yes. To safely hold the Olympics the virus must be stopped pretty much world wide. At least there must be a near zero count of new infections world wide and a vaccine at least as effective as the flu vaccine tested and generally available and they must place a requirement that everyone participating in any way be vaccinated. That would include fans and staff as well. Anything short of those measures would be irresponsible in the extreme. While that might seem extreme it is the safety of everyone involved that is really important. Also the vaccine must be available far enough in advance so that everyone world wide that connects in any way to the Olympics can receive it in time for it to be fully effective. Unless things move on the medical front much faster than they seem to be I do not see these Olympics going on except in highly modified form, like before empty stadiums. So far social distancing is the only effective way to control the spread of the virus and social distancing is hard to do in large crowds. Also there would have to be full control of the virus before teams could even begin practicing together again. Currently most sports practicing has to be done in isolation and that can be OK for some sports team sports need team practices and that is impossible to do while practicing social isolation. I just do not see a reasonable way for the Olympics to go on and I do not see a way for them to get moved and I REALLY hope I am wrong.
Stay positive blissett. It will probably get better before start of summer (though it still may get worse again around late fall) Mass produced vaccine usually takes 2-3 years to develop, however with unprecedented international co-op like we're seeing now - it may be done much faster. There is other thing to consider as well. The World markets are already taking a huge hit from the virus. The financial crisis looms ahead. During next year saving/restarting World/local economies will have serious priority over organizing/participating in Olympic Games.
It is still not proven that this virus is much climate related. It is possible that the only downturn we will see from summer is because people will not gather in groups indoor as much. This is not the flue and trying to compare the behavior of the two is less than a reliable way to predict behavior. However the novel coronavirus may be season related, we just do not know. One more very concerning thing that may point to the virus mutating is that there have now been confirmed cases of animal infection which could give the virus another vector to infect humans. You are correct that the financial concerns are a factor that many people have not taken into account. While the Olympics normally is positive to the economy of wherever it is held they are often not a short term financial boom and with the extra expenses that issues with the virus will cause I do not think that Japan, even in the best case situation, will see a financial uptick from holding the Olympics. However they will see greater and greater financial down ticks if they continue to delay making a decision. In financial systems it is often said, "buy the rumor and sell the fact." (That pertains to a bull market.) In a bear market like we currently have it is "Sell the rumor and buy the fact." The markets and I am sure the economy of Japan are taking big hits and it would be good, financially, for Japan to get out of the economic burden that the falling probability of the Olympics is producing Right now markets are falling and one contributor is the uncertainty of the Olympics. Just removing that uncertainty by canceling could stop part of the fall. There are other much larger and more important factors in the fall but removing one little stone from a land slide just might slow it down enough to make a difference.
The IOC had an emergency meeting today and has said they will decide within 4 weeks, setting a deadline for a decision: https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/51997540 https://sports.yahoo.com/ioc-olympics-2020-tokyo-postponement-thomas-bach-182012687.html They are still saying cancellation is not going to happen, but they may have a scaled-down version or postpone: Bach: “Together with all the stakeholders, we have started detailed discussions today to complete our assessment of the rapid development of the worldwide health situation and its impact on the Olympic Games, including a scenario of postponement. We are working very hard, and we are confident that we will have finalized these discussions within the next four weeks."
Some posts from the Covid-19 thread, but could be discussed in the Olympics one... (btw I'm not trying to be argumentative, I just love overreacting to things...) Er, well, let's just call it "a solution", eh... Outrageous! Inconceivable! Yeah, fair enough
Some posters should probably be reminded that the Olympics are not just a women's soccer tournament. Many athletes are training to peak while at the Olympic Games and they may be struggling to even train right now (in part due to global restrictions) since qualifiers have not even taken place yet for many events.
Correct. And for some events the training is a very sharp peak and, under good conditions, very difficult and the conditions are not "good" right now. It is quite hard for athletes to train in a lot of countries as such strong restrictions have been placed there is little real training that can happen. I still do not see any way for the Olympics to go on in any form like originally planed. I do not believe they can get the virus stamped out world wide and have a viable and thoroughly tested vaccine in time for the games. Also I do not believe the games can be moved in time or space and retain much of any of their original structure or purpose. I hope I am wrong but I just do not see the games going on unless they are willing to put everyone at risk to do it.
BREAKING: The Canadian Olympic Committee and Canadian Paralympic Committee will refuse to send athletes to the Tokyo Olympics if the event is not postponed.The 2020 Games are currently set to begin on July 24. News release: pic.twitter.com/NT8twsqAXI— CBC News Alerts (@CBCAlerts) March 23, 2020
USA Track & Field joined USA Swim and Dive this weekend in calling for the postponement. Canadian teams had too. Now the entire federation is coming out. I hope Team USA decides to make the stand too.