What folks also fail to do is... math(s). If "only" 2 or 3 or 10 or xx% of Covid cases need hospitalization, or even treatment, that is still a huge "demand surge" that was not built into health care supply modeling. We can't just 3D print hospital beds. And we don't have the command economy resources of China who threw up a few hospitals in a week or so. It's not like the rest of the population stops getting sick cause we got a little pandemic. I keep seeing folks elsewhere claim "it's the same mortality rate as the flu... yawn" Maybe, but that means you're doubling your number of flu cases in some locales. Which means if Fat Old Dude has a coronary trying to get his steps while watching the market crash or Aunt Betty has a small stroke, they may not get a bed, or even seen, as fast. There maybe more traffic in front of the hospital due to setting up makeshift drive-thru testing. The best ER coronary Doc or stroke expert nurse might be home with her sick hubby. Covid might not kill you - or even kill anyone you know, but if the cases ramp up too fast, someone you know may be collateral damage.
I have no idea about the amounts of money devoted to commercially oriented research vs basic research such as is funded by NIH or the NSF in the US, but I have to believe that the majority of research labs in this country and around the world are run by scientists who are not driven by profit, but simply because they like to do research and do it well enough to obtain their next grant with sufficient funds to support their lab(s) and keep the research program alive.
I have no idea about the amounts of money devoted to commercially oriented research vs basic research such as is funded by NIH or the NSF in the US, but I have to believe that the majority of research labs in this country and around the world are run by scientists who are not driven by profit, but simply because they like to do research and do it well enough to obtain their next grant with sufficient funds to support their lab(s) and keep the research program alive.
Someone has probably already responded to this, but I believe I saw a few days ago that the first case was on December 31, 2019.
Basic research is valuable and should be funded and funding should be increased. But that’s not the same thing as applied research needed to commercialize a new drug therapy, which requires private sector investment and partners. Indeed, even when NIH or University scientists discovery a promising new compound for applied research, they will partner with commercial drug companies to run hugely expensive clinical trials needed to bring the drug to market. Further most applied research involving new compounds is done by private sector scientists who are motivated to make a living and also the praise and yes economic success that flows from inventing a new drug. They are some of the smartest people in the country who work in fields beset by failures and yes they are motivated by finances just like you.
Dec 31 is when the Chinese first reported it to WHO. Researchers continue to search for patient zero - they keep getting further and further back. Latest I heard was Nov 17, although I don't think there's really anything conclusive. They basically have done it by reading the wechat discussions between doctors and looking for words like SARS, shortness of breath, coronavirus, etc...
I do not disagree, except to say that most every scientist is motivated, to a fairly large degree, "to make a living." Although in academia, the primary salary source is the university, not a granting agency. Medical research settings tend to reverse the salary sources. Perhaps I should have been more explicit. The post of yours to which I responded used the blanket term, "research," and did not focus on "applied research." For full disclosure, my career has been as a basic research neuroscientist in a medical school with 100% of salary paid by medical school. My grant funds only supported the research efforts.
We will never get the Truth out of Communist China. The curtains have been closed on the dramatic opening scenes of this Epic-demic, never to be revisited.
I am surprised but very glad to learn that your medical school employer pays your 12 month salary. My experience with my colleagues in med schools gave me the impression that they tend to ask their faculties to get a larger part of their salaries paid off grants (than their non-med school colleagues). Just to clarify your situation, are you promised 12 month salary and will not be asked to get part of your salary paid even when you have a research grant?
Understood--my post was more aimed at the other posters who were suggesting that we could simply leave new drug development to government and non-profits. The evidence we have strongly supports the opposite.
When I was hired, there was an historical accident involving a research facility that was administratively moved to be under the state university system umbrella. Some people lost jobs, others retained them, funded by a source of money never to happen again, in all likelihood. The situation was unusual and complex at several levels. As you point out, the norm in medical schools is for the administration to demand an ever-increasing percent of salary be paid directly from grants. At some medical schools, the vast majority of research faculty are in this position. No grants, no salary, go elsewhere. At the national level, when research funds are tight, many of the nontenured, soft money (e.g. grants) supported research faculty are forced to leave suddenly. Some go to industry, some to non-research-oriented colleges to teach, some retire or change careers. Being tenured with no pressure to generate salary money was wonderful, obviously, especially given that a single typical research grant was not allowed to fund a typical salary in its entirety. Therefore, 2-3 grants are necessary to obtain full salary. That becomes very very tough, at times. Bringing in the grants was a different form of pressure that recurred every 3 to 5 years depending on circumstances.
Even the best fall down sometimes.Keep that 😀, @cpulisic_10! pic.twitter.com/EpIqAdzISA— U.S. Soccer Men's National Team (@USMNT) March 18, 2020 6 months
I have always heard that even if cure was found that it would take 18 months to implement after testing.
FWIW he did an instagram live session with Wes yesterday and said he was 100% healthy again, not that it matters much now, just good to see the injury wasn't as bad as TA's adductor.
I don’t think there is a cure just a vaccine which will give people the ability to produce antibodies against this strain of the virus making it less severe and preventing it from developing into covid-19 in some cases in the same way we do for the flu. This is much more deadly than the flu and 3 times more contagious. The vaccine is at least a year out prior to being available to all. Testing has started however.
I have been playing the Covid scenarios out in Plague Inc. gotta say it isn’t looking good as I am consistently infecting the world with less than 40% cure research completed.