PBP: SSC Napoli v FC Barcelona | UEFA CL - Round of 16 - 1st Leg | 25 February 2020 [R]

Problem is he is getting playing time. Valverde gave him a legit shot, playing him in every match from the start of the season until November when he got a slight injury. He's just a limited player and won't be getting any better than what we've seen.

 

Even with great widemen, it will be difficult to beat Napoli. Just look at Liverpool. Robertson and Alexander-Arnold, who is redefining the position, are arguably the best in the game right now. And they can afford to get really forward on the pitch because of the hard-working midfield and Van Dijk's enormous presence at the back. Yet, Liverpool produced few in the way of chances against Napoli, despite dominating the proceedings.

With the suspension of league play, the balance of this tie may change drastically, but the way things were shaping up, it seemed to me Napoli could have sprung an upset. Barcelona were stuttering. The loss to Real being a real sticking. Napoli, on the other hand were winning games against Italy's biggest teams (Lazio, Inter, and Juventus). Napoli only seem to struggle when they have to take the game to the opponent. They have often looked insipid when trying to break down teams and lack a player of exceptional quality. So if Barcelona can get that first goal, that might be enough to undo them, but if Napoli can keep their lines in shape and make life difficult for Barcelona to break them down, that could keep the balance in Napoli's favor.

In the first leg, had Manolas scored to put Napoli 2-0 up, that might have been lights out.

 

Playing at home will help our cause, I think; although I guess it is up in the air if / when CL might resume and if it will be at a single neutral location (as the NBA is doing, and MSL too). But the one away goal is not much help to us as I just don't see us ever playing for, much less pulling off, a 0-0 stalemate which would see us advance on the away goals rule. More likely we will score at least once and the question will be whether we can keep a clean sheet. If I had to predict, we win 2-1 to advance, but this is far from over at the moment, despite 531 giving us an 87% chance to progress: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/champions-league/ Obviously getting Luis Suarez healthy again is a big boost, esp. as Braithwaite is not CL eligible.

Other odds are: Bayern 99+% over Chelsea (0-3 in London); Man City 90% over Real Madrid (1-2 in Madrid and Ramos red carded); and Juventus 53% over Lyon (1-0 win for Lyon in Lyon). Already in are: PSG, RB Leipzig, Atalanta, and Atletico Madrid.

 

Are those odds based on the old rules though? I'm guessing YES because it would seem difficult to compute odds under the actual scenario, which is unprecedented.

3 big new factors come in-to play (that I can think of):
- no true home advantage; [benefits LPB, Napoli, Lyon]
-away goals count more; [benefits LPB, Napoli, Lyon]
-momentum from first-leg result is totally lost; [benefits LPB] and perhaps also benefits Barca since our form was shite in February-March]

 

I think rounds from QF-FInal will be at a neutral venue but 2nd leg vs. Napoli will be at Camp Nou although without fans I don't know how much of an advantage that is.

 

I hope you’re right. And that would make sense. Once they’ve played a full 6-7 weeks of domestic football in Italy and Spain, I don’t see what the problem would be with Napoli travelling to BCN.

I think it would still be an advantage. Familiar ground and not having to travel.

 

Well I will hold out hope that a nicer PBP thread is coming for the second leg, in the meantime I will post this here. Rumors of a 3-5-2 for the 2nd leg, read in Sport with some commentary thrown in:

Based on training, the defence would be formed by, right to left, Nelson Semedo, Gerard Pique and Clement Lenglet, with Sergi Roberto and Jordi Alba operating as full-backs.

In midfield, with Sergio Busquets and Arturo Vidal suspended (and Arthur back in Brazil because he quit on his teammates -- it's OK to be pissed at Barto or even Setien, not OK to abandon your team especially knowing Vidal and Busquets are suspended). Setien would turn to Frenkie de Jong, Ivan Rakitic and Riqui Puig, with Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez upfront. Antoine Griezmann, just returning from an injury, would be the big sacrifice from the starting XI.

Setien has always been meticulous in the positioning of his players. For that reason, the 3-5-2 would be used with the ball, while it would become a 4-4-2 in defence. Alba would become left-back, Semedo would push to the right and Roberto and Puig would provide protection from the wings for the full-backs.

The change of system is born of various reasons. In attack, Setien wants the wing-backs to open the pitch, which is a key factor to ensuring the ball circulation can be quick. At the same time, he doesn't want to be exposed if they lose the ball, hence the three central defenders. Remember Napoli have quick players in attack.

 

Well no Vidal or Busquets due to suspensions and now no Arthur either. So it kind of makes sense to play Semedo in the back so we have another veteran midfielder available in Roberto; FdJ gets to play what many say is his best position (DM), and/or possibly even form a double pivot with Rakitic who is the other possible DM without Busquets. And Puig is small but very creative, lets Messi stay a little closer to the goal. Given who is available it may be the best we can do. Alba of course is great in a more advanced role and will still track back on D whether we call it 4-3-3, or 3-5-2.

The thing we miss most in that proposed lineup is a third forward, either back from injury Griezmann or Ansu Fati (Dembele is not yet medically cleared yet, and Braithwaite was only in our Liga squad, not eligible for CL).

 

I guess that makes sense given the circumstances. But in an era of 5, maybe 6 substitutes, our bench is pathetic. We have Fati and thats it. Messi needs to have an epic match for us to win.