Adams/Davies path to Major Leagues

I think talent is still the most important issue. Newcastle had no problem at all spending big $$ for a 25 year old MLS player, Almiron.

 

I think players like Joseph Scally and Chris Richards are the model of what MLS actually wants....................

18 year olds under contract that get sold by MLS clubs for big money and future sell on fees.

Having young players leave on free transfers isn't going to convince MLS clubs to continue investing millions in their academies. [The training compensation/solidarity payments are not enough to be valuable to clubs.] RSL, LAG, NYRB, and FCD have been torched recently as players like Llanez, Mendez, Ledezma, Soto, Gloster, Booth, Gomez, McKennie, etc. have left on free transfers.

Academies aren't community outreach programs. They're not halfway houses for kids that want to go to European academies. They're investments by these clubs. If they don't get a return on these investments, then they're not going to continue.

If folks have a comment to make about an MLS academy, they should ask themselves whether they'd expect the Boca Juniors or Chivas academy to behave in the same way.

When somebody says "why didn't FCD sell Paxton Pomykal?!!!!" Three things: 1) I've never heard a report from a reputable reporter that a transfer offer has come in. 2) FCD doesn't need the money. 3) Pomykal apparently likes being an FCD player and just signed a long-term contract extension. So what are we complaining about here?

 

Would like to see training/solidarity payments come through garnishment of a player's wages. This way, the player's progress isn't hampered by a prospect team's balking at the payments. And the training team still gets paid.

 

24 American teenagers who are still teenagers got minutes last season.

 

That's obvious. I'm just pointing out the approx size of the current pool.

 

i dont understand anything about this point. are you saying pomykal is more valuable to them than any offer they recieve?

otherwise i dont get what you mean by that at all.

 

I'm saying that for a great majority of leagues and clubs in this hemisphere, they need to sell players annually in order to stay in the black. Clubs in Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Ecuador, etc. have the selling of players to Europe (and Mexico/US for that matter) as a primary piece of their "business model."

MLS clubs don't need to do that. I think we underestimate the financial stability of MLS clubs. The single entity system provides protection for the clubs that are just skimming along as well.

Note that FC Dallas is owned by the Hunt family. One of the wealthiest families in the United States. [Also own the Kansas City Chiefs of course.] The money from a Pomykal sale is a drop in the bucket for them. Barely makes their financial spreadsheet.

So FC Dallas (and we can make the argument for every club in the league) doesn't need to sell Paxton Pomykal or Reggie Cannon or Jesus Ferreira just for the money.

That's the point. So what is the motivation to sell players to Europe? Well, there's a salary cap and roster limitations in MLS. If their development goes like we want it to, then at some point Paxton Pomykal and Jesus Ferreira will be coveted by Euro clubs that can give them salaries that FCD can't compete with. Life-changing salary offers. [Both just signed extensions with FCD at $600k/year. Not shabby anyway] So if you're a club that cares about your players, then you have to sell in these cases. In other words, don't do what NYRB has been doing to Long.

And there are also roster size limits. FCD's 10 developmental roster slots are full (and that's after Pomykal and Ferreira were moved to senior roster slots with their extensions. And GenAd Atuahene was loaned out).. So they can only sign more young players to first team contracts, until players are moved out of those roster slots. In other words, FCD has gotta keep the assembly line moving............or the whole thing gets clogged.

Note that a motivation for MLS should never be to sell players for the betterment of the USMNT. MLS clubs aren't beholden to the desires and motivations of the USMNT. They sell players if it benefits them and their players. Benefiting the USMNT is a happy byproduct.

 

This was really cool to see

 

minutes is a poor heuristic because that can be team specific. aaronson is on that list circularly because GB likes him. the other 3 have more serious chops.

 

i know people want to paint MLS all the same and inferior, but there are good teams where not playing much doesn't say much -- efraiin at LA -- and there are cheap or youth based teams where if you aren't playing a lot something is the matter. the good teams have more in common with europe. you're not just "sitting," you might be behind vela or pirlo. your team goes deeper in the playoffs.

also, whether you are playing the same year as the U20 tournament to me doesn't say whether you are stud or bust. i would tend to go with who made or didn't make that team, and also who showed well among the ones who did make it. to me it's bizarre that aaronson gets cut and people are vaulting him on past people who made the same U20 team on their lists. what, because he was not just cut but unambitious? because GB likes him?

i could understand first team career theories more like 21-22. by a point you need to start turning out or find a new home where you can. but until then i am holding out for my U20 standouts and for talent.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...ng-talents-in-world-football?CMP=share_btn_tw

the guardian listed efrain, one of the tillmans -- i don't know why we don't put in more effort there -- busio, and reyna.

 

Sorry, no. Adams was the standout and he moved within his ownership umbrella for less than $3m. Davies was sold halfway through his only impact season for $11m. At that young age I think perceived talent trumps. I also think they were signed for different purposes, Davies got developed in age group ball and Adams was basically signed like a mid career player to use tomorrow.

It all depends on if you are in the "prospect" box or the "getting signed because he's first team material" box. Those are different boxes where you start at different places and get different degrees of leniency and if you fail "sit in age group" versus "go on loan."

 

It's easy to see why some players like Aaronson get lauded despite not making the U20 team, and some of their teammates don't.

If we see them play, and if it's "first team" soccer, then we think they're great. Aaronson was fairly pedestrian last year. But we could watch him easily, and he played first team ball.

Uly Llanez, who made the U20s and looked good (IMO), was tearing up Wolfsburg U19s and Wolfsburg II. Only Youth Yanks Abroad people are watching that, so nobody notices that he's any good until he comes into a January camp and looks more dangerous than run-hard guys like Arriola.

 

it's basically reverse club snobbery. people like me say club snobs think it's all where you play. ok, let me give everyone their chance. but that's subjective. i now need objective criteria. i could look at goals, assists, tape, do they get beat on defense. or if i am lazy i look at minutes as a proxy. but minutes are specific to what does your team have around, what does your team need, how ambitious were you, how good is your team.

efrain to me looks excellent but because he's LAG he's a squad player. that's more like europe. other teams with lower budgets if you are any good you better be playing.

i feel like the bar has gone way down on playmaking. if you have a couple assists in a season you aren't a 10 and you aren't pirlo either. and to me part of the analysis of should i be playing a 6-led offense should be, do i have a pirlo. if not, why bother. a fairly mediocre 10 has more assists than yueill does.

i also feel like analytics are poorly wedded to a transition like ours that screams out for the eye test. they won't necessarily be first team guys yet. they will have talent. to me they tend to have more talent than the ones with numbers. but to make decisions you need an eye where you can see which ones are special. special that doesn't yet pop out in numbers doesn't seem to be our thing now.

 

to me this is the worst time to have some footdragging analytics guy

you need a first cycle klinsi who thinks he knows what talent looks like and wants it on the field immediately

most of the people who resist me on players haven't seen them and are reflex responding like "but he's 17" and then they see who i am talking about on tape and are like holy crap and join their church as though they never doubted

 

I'd be careful; with using this as a criteria. A lot of MLS Academy kids either play with a USL team while in the Academy, or sign a deal first with the USL team of their MLS Academy. Both of these makes them ineligible for MLS' rookie of the year award. Aaronson was ineligible for consideration for the award since he'd played games with the Union's USL team when he was 16 and 17 years old. The same was true for Austin Trusty and Mark McKenzie the year prior.

Uh, wrong. Professional scouts have repeatedly said that Aaronson has a very high ceiling, and many rate him higher than Pomykal. There's a reason why he kept Marco Fabian & his $2M salary rooted to the bench last season. Comparing these two is useless as they play vastly different positions. BA is an attacking player, where PP is more of a shuttler/traditional #8 type of player.

 

i referred to a list of 3, not one, and they were intended as a quality comparison, not his positional opponents.

you then say BA and MF played only the same spot which is impossible when they total 40 starts last season. or suggest the guy with 50% more minutes outplayed the guy who had 2x as many goals in 2/3 the time. i have a feeling that has more to do with MLS salary math and deciding i don't need a $2m 7 goal guy as opposed to let me hitch my future to a moderately productive guy.

"scouts say?" i didn't hear a peep of upset when the U20 team leaving him off was named. the union brought in 4 mids, only one of whom is farm team bait. pomykal had more assists and similar goals in fewer starts and minutes. you may say wow he fended off MF, i say handed the keys he had 3G 2A whoop dee freaking do.

aaronson has played 66' in one january friendly. i take that as being on the U23 track.

the put up or shut up line is no one was calling his name before last summer or even before GB brought him in. this is "coach likes him he must be good" with all attendant circularity. and IMO given all that time he was largely anonymous except for a run or two. to be fair the same was true of lletget, but i am of the "star is as star does" school and my doors weren't blown off. once upon a time OK wouldn't keep you around. but the NT is increasingly picked in the coach's head as opposed to because the players selected performed well.

 

for some reason it's like talk about anything but the direct reality of what the team should look like. who would be 22/22. who would be olympics. who would win ROY. as i was explaining the other day, some of the best prospects won't fit these boxes because they aren't MLS and are playing age group ball or marginal first team. they won't be released for olympic qualifying but on the U20 team were chosen ahead of some of the people who would tick the semi-relevant boxes.

so you have conservative first team selections and then U23 that skews towards "available." your best young players end up in the sandwich between.

i mean, sane, objective people looking at the U20 worlds scoring would be where are weah and soto. those were your 2 attacking scorers on a world stage. they have disappeared even when weah is healthy.

you'd then probably add richards as the one standout back. [i think dest is a mess but whatever.]

leading qualifying scorers would include mendez llanez akinola pomykal. we have ignored at the senior level mendez and akinola who are both flight risks who play abroad.

in fact, aaronson's linemate fontana was on the qualifying team and was productive. and he has roughly as many MLS goals for his career.

aaronson couldn't even make the qualifying team much less worlds. if within 6 months he's getting capped ahead of the list i just gave, most objective people would be like, are you nuts, and be like, he wasn't even your first choice at U20 off his own club team.