And they have to go all the way back to 1972 and McGovern to formulate an argument for why Sanders can't win. When a centrist lost in 2016, Obama won running as a progressive, Gore ran as a centrist, etc.
Warren and Buttigieg won the 2 biggest "non-white" counties (meaning large counties with high minority population). Sanders won the most. I do not see any information at precinct level, but in twitter I see that he did very well with Muslims. https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/iowa/
2 points: The economy is not doing alright. Headline numbers might be fine but wages growth is stagnant, the workforce is increasingly becoming casualised and employment is precarious. Sanders typical anti-establishment support cuts directly into Trumps base. He would beat him easily head to head. The threat to a Sanders presidency is the inevitable media barrage from all the major news outlets, look at Corbyn for an example, and the inevitable third party run by the neolibs establishment if he miraculously pulls off a primary win.
Unless there has been some change that I am not aware of, Muslims of Middle Eastern origin would be classified as 'white' for demographic purposes based on the US census and such. Sanders could very well do well among Muslims, but I don't think that would necessarily explain who he would have won districts which have 'non-white' populations.
I don't agree, but repped you anyway I like the spirit and wish I saw Bernie's chances the way you do. I certainly consider a Sanders presidency a HUGE step up for the US compared to a Trump presidency, but I am not sure that is how Americans will see it.
Gore was robbed tbf, he has since moved more to the left accord to Cenk Uygur, who worked with him at Current TV. I'd take him over Biden and Pete.
LOL. I doubt he can even win the primary. If it was a fair process though it would not even be close. Just look at the number of candidates trying to emulate him. I'm losing more and more faith in the entire electoral process day by day and becoming increasingly radicalized. These centrists are fiddling while the world literally burns around them and the 0.1% are looking on approvingly and laughing.
As much as I hate Trump, and his lies, his lack of any self restraint, his vindictive nature, his selfish out of control ego, and the cocoon he lives in and sees the world through, I give him credit for one thing: he is transparent. Even when he is lying, he is doing it openly! The folks who like to keep Bernie down within the Democratic party, on the other hand, do their deeds quietly, behind closed doors, in all the ways that are the opposite of transparent.
And the national polls said Dukasis was up 18 on HW Bush after his convention in July, and Kerry was up double digits on Bush in March of 04 when he secured the nomination and Mccain was slightly up on Obama when he got the Palin bounce after the roll out of her.. national hypothetical polls mean NOTHING. The only thing we can pull and use as a resource is historical and past results and data.. Sanders ideologically based on votes, public statements and background is closet to McGovern, Mondale and Dukasis. Hence the losing result. Biden is more like a narrow victory or loss Carter or Ford 76, Kerry 04, Nixon 60, Romeny 12, Bush 2000..
Joe Biden, 77 year old white male the plagiarist who managed to spectacularly fail every national election he's ever entered plucked out of oblivion by Barack "the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy" Obama vs. Bernie Sanders, 78 year old white male Socialist is that about right? someone better get Oprah on the phone
Serious question (well, for those who can cut through the bullshit) - There is a special election scheduled for next month for representation in the state house for my town. The town's Democratic council held a vote and selected a woman who is currently serving on the local council to be the Dem representative. However, the county's Democratic leadership held a vote that went 65-3 for a union plumber despite that plumber losing the local vote to the woman serving on the town council. They did this because they felt that the plumber would bring in more money through the local unions which would give the Dems a greater chance to win the seat. My question is this: Let's say Bernie squeaks out victories all over the country - not huge victories, but victories nonetheless. The Dems look at this and feel concerned that, despite Bernie winning these states, that he won't win over independents, and that only his voter base voted for him and he won't draw votes from any other group, thus dooming the country to a second Trump term. Would the DNC go to the convention and try to push for someone else who is more electable, simply to remove Trump from office, or would they get behind Sanders in every capacity and try to ensure his victory even if it looks like he has no chance of winning?
He is winning (in some ways). Just wait if Trump wins, we are going to get a flood of Trumpers in here after November.
And I am saying that I do not see any precinct information by race out there, all I see in official results are by county and yes Sanders, Warren and Buttegeig seem to have gotten support in areas with relative high minorities (relative to Iowa). Perhaps the people on your link are talking about exit polling, I do not know.
How'd that work for the Republicans with Trump. There was definitely a very vocal group of Republicans going into their convention that was hoping they could get enough delegates to switch over to a different person so they could go contested and switch. Realistically tho, if Sanders has a clear lead in delegates, there really isn't a way to put in a different candidate. The only way Sanders could be replaced is if he has a narrow enough lead that he can't get across the line for final confirmation. The convention would then go into a contested convention and that's where the smoky backroom deals can take over.