Where do we rank right now?

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by Eleven Bravo, Sep 21, 2019.

  1. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    FIFA right now has us at 21. Which, I can still remember FIFA once thinking we were the 4th best team in the world. Nonetheless, the truth is we were never the 4th best team in the world, but there was a time when it was very easy to believe we were easily in the top 20. I’d say right after the Confed Cup 2009, and a few other times, here or there, we may have even been in the top 10.

    But now...

    21 is way too generous. I wouldn’t even rank us in the top 60, at the moment.

    Top 10:
    France, England, Netherlands, Belgium, Brazil, Argentina, Croatia, Spain, Portugal, Germany

    Top 20:
    Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, Italy, Switzerland, Senegal, Japan, South Korea, Russia, Venezuela

    Top 30:
    Ukraine, Chile, Ghana, Nigeria, Poland, Serbia, Wales, Denmark, Sweden, Australia

    Top 40:
    Iran, Peru, Paraguay, Ecuador, Czech Republic, Tunisia, Algeria, Ghana, Turkey, Ireland Republic

    Top 50:
    Bosnia and Herzegovina, Austria, Costa Rica, Iceland, Morocco, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Slovakia, Romania

    Top 60:
    USA, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Canada, Jamaica, Congo DR, Slovenia, Honduras, Norway, Hungary

    Top 70:
    Greece, Bulgaria, Panama, Finland, Bolivia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, China, Qatar, New Zealand

    The good news is that our u23 looks like it’s a top 20 team.

    The bad news is our over u23 players, I don’t think would even make it in the top 100.
     
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  2. gunnerfan7

    gunnerfan7 Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 22, 2012
    Santa Cruz, California
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    #2 gunnerfan7, Sep 21, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2019
    Yikes. Top 60 is too low.

    Waaay too low.

    So you think we're 30 spots below a nameless Austrailia team whose best wins of the last couple years are a 3-2 home win against Saudi Arabia, and a 3-1 at home against Honduras? Otherwise, you're giving them those spots because they're winning games against Kuwait, Palestine, and Syria.

    Lower than Costa Rica, who barely scraped through the GS of the Gold Cup, who we beat at home in March Camp Cupcake, and who has a W/L/T record of 5/14/1 in their last 20 games?

    Lower than Ghana, who wasn't even close to Russia last cycle, finishing 3rd in CAF WCQ below Uganda, their lone win a 5-1 romp over Congo.

    I could go on. Romania's sky-high, maybe because they beat Malta, the Faroe Islands, and sometimes Montenegro? Wow, shaking in my boots here. All in all, you vastly underrate the US beating CONCACAF teams, and vastly overrate other beating down on minnows (some, like Ghana, aren't even doing that).

    I still have the Fire Berhalter petition as my sig, but your rankings are insane.
     
  3. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We’re improving. But we are lot further behind than we could imagine. And with Berhalter at the helm, we are even worse than the sum of our parts.
     
  4. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    The Mickey Mouse Club or The breakfast Club
    May 4, 2002
    Limbo
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    The further bad news is that success at the youth levels often has little to no connection to success at the senior levels.

    I "think" I remember the US doing very well at several youth World Cups and we can see where that has brought us.
     
  5. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    About #35.

    Tier 1: France, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Spain, England, Netherlands (1-7).

    Tier 2: Argentina, Germany, Italy, Croatia, Ukraine, Mexico, Uruguay, Denmark, Russia (8-16).

    Tier 3: Portugal, Peru, Ireland, Turkey, Poland, Sweden, ROK, Iran, Senegal, Venezuela (17-26).

    Tier 4: Chile, Switzerland, Slovakia, Japan, Costa Rica, Hungary, Slovenia, Ecuador, USA, Australia (27-36).
     
  6. gunnerfan7

    gunnerfan7 Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 22, 2012
    Santa Cruz, California
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And yet, we're far from 60th in the world, no matter who is coaching.

    FIFA has us at 21. Certainly generous, but not absurd.

    ELO has us at 38. I think that's a little low, but that's closer to FIFA's ranking than it is to yours.

    I think we're probably around #30.

    If you're going to say something outlandish, you need to give a more detailed explanation than "we're worse than the sum of our parts". Otherwise, I could just say Sweden is the best team in the world. Why? Well, cause it plays better than the sum of its parts.
     
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  7. Suyuntuy

    Suyuntuy Member+

    Jul 16, 2007
    Vancouver, Canada
    Rankings are difficult because it's like with Pokémon: some teams are just poor matchups to some others. And some are wildly inconsistent, like Chile and Portugal. Or Switzerland, that in a good day can climb all the way to my Tier 2.

    For us, certain teams are lousy match-ups due to style, mainly dribbling teams that combine well and fast: Spain, Argentina, Brazil, this current Belgium, Ireland, etc. Also, teams that are solid at the back and have the patience to strike when the other team makes a mistake, like most of the Eastern Euros.

    In general, Latin/Slav teams tend to be hard for us.

    On the other hand, we can get surprisingly good results against inconsistent teams that depend greatly on mentality (Portugal, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, the Scandinavian teams), and teams that play risky at the back trying to overwhelm with attack (most of the strong African teams, this Japan, Australia, Middle Eastern/North African teams).

    Teams that I think we could learn a lot playing: Iran, Denmark, Nigeria, Paraguay, Switzerland.
     
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  8. Mantis Toboggan M.D.

    Philadelphia Union
    United States
    Jul 8, 2017
    I don't think there's a huge quality gap in a vacuum between roughly the #12 and #40 or so teams in the world at any given time. Games between teams in that range are usually going to come down to specific matchup and who has a better day.
     
  9. An Unpaved Road

    An Unpaved Road Member+

    Mar 22, 2006
    Club:
    --other--
    In-region I think the Gold Cup says otherwise to this ranking, especially in regards to Honduras, who crashed out hard. Basically I'd just say we're clearly behind Mexico and probably a bit behind Costa Rica. And ahead of everyone else regionally until longer term competitive results say otherwise.
     
  10. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree. And historically, I would have put us in that group. But since 2015, I think we have fallen out of that category.
     
  11. glutton4Bolts

    glutton4Bolts Member+

    United States
    Mar 18, 2019
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I think 30 is pretty spot on right now. Usually agree with Bravo's posts... but 60 is way too low IMO. But then again... what does it matter if you are ranked anywhere outside the top 15 or so? You are either world class or not and we are not. A lot of young talent in the U20s coming up but I still don't sniff a true world class goal scorer... either on our current roster or to come in the next couple of years.
     
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  12. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    We are currently ranked 38th on the elo, a reasonable level.

    We haven't beaten a top-40 team in a competitive match, since 2016.
     
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  13. Mantis Toboggan M.D.

    Philadelphia Union
    United States
    Jul 8, 2017
    Depends on how you look at it (and if anything it would be after 2016, at the Copa that year we were clearly good enough to be in that group). Purely in terms of talent I think we're in that group of not towards the top of it, but coaching is holding us back.
     
  14. HomietheClown

    HomietheClown Member+

    Dusselheim FC 1971
    Sep 4, 2010
    Club:
    --other--
    It seems like I have been saying this since 2016 but our back line and keeper situations makes me nauseous.
    And now the lack of true leadership and good veterans to rely on makes me even more sick.

    That said, we do have a lot of decent young talent from the last three U20s that could still change things around quickly.

    If I had to say what we are ranked around I would say something like 50.
    But in reality it does not matter. I just want to see us beat up on CONCACAF teams and then go from there.
    Baby steps.
     
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  15. FanOfFutbol

    FanOfFutbol Member+

    The Mickey Mouse Club or The breakfast Club
    May 4, 2002
    Limbo
    Nat'l Team:
    --other--
    After further thought I have to say that I believe we are about as"rank" as we can get. At the current level of play that is about the best description of the USMNT I can come up with.
     
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  16. Mahtzo1

    Mahtzo1 Member+

    Jan 15, 2007
    So Cal
    I would say 30ish is about right. +/- 5-7 or so. We are at a relative low spot (even if the current "in prime" players weren't below par, rebuilding with youth does that to you).

    I also believe that you have underestimated Mexico. I think they are far better than some give them credit for. They ALWAYS give top teams a hard time in the WC and I think their current team is one of their best.

    On one hand many dismiss the fact that we generally can beat snot out of lower level CONCACAF teams but then put us on the same level as those teams. If we really were on the same level, beating them would not be something to dismiss so easily.
     
  17. gunnerfan7

    gunnerfan7 Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Jul 22, 2012
    Santa Cruz, California
    Club:
    Arsenal FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not true, and a misleading statistic to boot.

    Since 2016, we have had 6 competitive opportunities to win against Top-40 teams.

    3 against Mexico, with one tie, 2 losses.

    3 against Costa Rica, with one win (2-0 in the 2017 Gold Cup Semi's), 2 losses.

    In fact, when we beat Costa Rica on July 22nd, 2017, they were ranked above us in ELO at 24th to 27th.

    While we have pretty mixed/poor results against Top-40 teams in competition since 2016, we mostly have an issue with the fact that we almost never face them.

    We rarely play Mexico, because to play in a competitive game means it's either Hex play or the GC Final, assuming that both teams make it that far (the 2019 edition being the first in a while with both teams).

    On the other hand, we often play teams like El Salvador/Panama/Honduras multiple times in the GC and WCQ Group Stages, but they're never ranked high enough.

    Costa Rica's back down to #47 now, so if we played tomorrow in a competitive game, we wouldn't be getting a chance to beat a Top 40 team.

    The Caribbean teams are nowhere close to top-40, and they're unlikely to get there anytime soon. That requires sustained success over multiple years, and the Caribbean teams are far too inconsistent, despite sometimes getting hot in tournaments, like Jamaica seems to do in the GC.
     
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  18. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Yup. Its a problem for all of CONCACAF.

    We've seen that problem with Canada. If you have a couple of poor Gold Cups in a row, you just start plummeting.

    We won the Gold Cup in 2017 and made the final in 2019.
    And despite folks' memories, we demolished teams like Panama and Honduras in WCQing. We drew in Mexico at the Azteca.

    The truth is that there's the top of the FIFA ranking. About the top 16 (Italy is at 15; Germany is at 16). After that about the next 35 countries are packed really tightly. It truly doesn't matter.

    What matters for us right now is that we're 2nd in CONCACAF. Which based on Costa Rica's poor play of late, is probably right. They lost to Haiti at the Gold Cup after all. We also beat them early in the year in a friendly.
     
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  19. 50/50 Ball

    50/50 Ball Member+

    Sep 6, 2006
    USA
    Nat'l Team:
    United States

    Familiarity has bred contempt with many.

    Somewhere between 38-21 makes a lot more sense than 60.
     
  20. a_new_fan

    a_new_fan Member+

    Jul 6, 2006
    How do you figure that?
     
  21. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Who knows? It's an impossible argument.

    What is true is that our U20 teams have been to back-to-back-to-back World Cup Quarterfinals. [Finishing 6th, 6th, and 7th.] So if folks want to suggest that our U20 program is top 20 in the World, that's fine with me. [It's not so simple, but one can at least make the argument.].

    The U23s never play, and frankly our CONCACAF U23 Championships team will be faaaaaaaaaaaaaar from the best U23 team that we can assemble.

    It should be noted that 20 players still eligible for the U23s have at least one senior USMNT cap right now.
     
  22. a_new_fan

    a_new_fan Member+

    Jul 6, 2006
    I can agree from that but I just want to put the warning out there that while our concacaf u23 wouldn't be the best possible team they can put out there other teams probably can make a similar argument and when it comes to a lot of the teams they play against frankly the us should have so much more depth situations like that the us should be miles ahead of other countries and that not being true probably reflects our issues as much as anything.
     
  23. Every Four Years

    May 16, 2015
    Miramar, Florida
    Nat'l Team:
    India
    TBH I don’t think Elo’s far off. Sure, you can maybe say “Oh, we’re better than Romania and Czech Republic, maybe Ecuador and Paraguay”, etc etc, but then again we’re also ranked above teams like Morocco and Nigeria that had pretty decent WCs, so I’d say it more or less balances out. 38th is fine for the US under Egg.

    The good news is that everyone else in CONCACAF, minus Mexico, is even worse. We’ll be in Qatar.

    The bad news is we’re 7 years out from a WC on home soil, and we’re currently talking about how we get back to where we were in 2009 :unsure:.

    For me, the goal is quarters in 2026. 2022 is a springboard, hopefully we make the second round, use it as a learning experience to build on for the real deal four years later. But we couldn’t be in a worse beginning position to start that process.
     
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  24. Eleven Bravo

    Eleven Bravo Member+

    Atlanta United
    United States
    Jul 3, 2004
    SC
    Club:
    Atlanta Silverbacks
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Y’all thought I was nuts. 60th sounds generous now.
     
  25. United1

    United1 Member+

    Feb 23, 1999
    Arlington, VA
    Club:
    DC United
    Probably somewhere around 70 - 75.

    Not kidding. I'd take all of South America, almost all of Europe, and a chunk of Africa before this team. Throw in S. Korea, Japan, Mexico, Costa Rica, etc., and you have it.
     
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