Olsen should be coaching for his job on Saturday. You better believe that Montreal coach knows his ass is on the line. Enough already, get it done or gtfo.
It paves the way for a busy and creative post season of microscopically investigating every facet of the season should it end with probable failure to make the play off cut. Apologists will as always outweigh those who feel competence is essential to job retention.
Hey, I'm sorry, OK? Look, we're just a bunch of internet nuts. And TBF, despite the long hours, this isn't technically a job!
Oh, no! I didn't intend for you to get that impression! No one thing is going to be the reason this team misses the playoffs, it's every minute of every match, they squandered too many opportunities.
(I haven't updated the home/away avg PPG, but they're still useful. As my nephew said when he was 4 years old, "you get what you get and you don't throw a fit". ) Montreal is a must-win game for us at this point. A draw would leave both teams projected at 47 points with Montreal having the tie-breaker. Assuming we do win... If Montreal wins their final 2 home games and loses their 1 road game, as projected, we would need to win 3 of our final 5 games to clinch a playoff slot. (Granted, their final game is on the road against a likely-to-have-been-eliminated New England. But our final game is on the road against already-eliminated Chicago. We're at least as likely to get an unexpected road win, if not more so.) Philadelphia looks to be pretty safe now. Having beaten both Seattle on the road and KC at home, exceeding the projected draw for each game, they now only need to win their projected 1 game out of their remaining 4 games to get 49 points--which would almost certainly be enough for a playoff slot. Philadelphia (Home PPG 1.77, Road PPG 1.21) Projected Total Points 49 (5th place) (Current Points 46, Projected Future Points 3) Sep 29: Loss - at-Columbus (2.14/-0.93) Oct 6: Win - Minnesota (0.31/+1.46) Oct 21: Loss - NYRB (1.50/+0.27) Oct 28: Loss - at-NYFC (2.36/-1.14) DC United (Home PPG 2.20, Road PPG 0.31) Projected Total Points 49 (6th place) (Current Points 35, Projected Future Points 14) Sep 29: Win - Montreal (0.57/+1.63) Oct 7: Win - Chicago (0.69/+1.51) Oct 13: Draw - Dallas (1.38/+0.82) Oct 17: Win - Toronto (0.71/+1.49) Oct 21: Win - NYFC (1.07/+1.13) Oct 28: Draw - at-Chicago (1.07/-0.54) Montreal (Home PPG 2.00, Road PPG 0.57) Projected Total Points 46 (7th place) (Current Points 40, Projected Future Points 6) Sep 29: Loss - at-DC United (2.20/-1.63) Oct 6: Win - Columbus (1.00/+1.00) Oct 21: Win - Toronto (0.71/+1.29) Oct 28: Loss - at-New England (1.57/-1.00) New England (Home PPG 1.57, Road PPG 0.85) Projected Total Points 42 (8th place) (Current Points 35, Projected Future Points 7) Sep 29: Draw - at-Toronto (1.31/-0.46) Oct 6: Loss - at-Atlanta, (2.00/-1.15) Oct 13: Win - Orlando (0.50/+1.07) Oct 18: Loss - at-Salt Lake (2.36/-1.51) Oct 28: Win - Montreal (0.57/+1.00)
I see this as 50-50 at best. We're still 5 points below Montreal, and 11 points away from Philly. Granted we have two games on both of them, but thats a mighty high hill to climb. And then its only for a mid-week play-in game away from home.
It all comes down to Saturday. A DCU win and the team "controls" its destiny in that if it wins out (highly unlikely, but possible), then Montreal can do nothing to catch them. Conversely, a loss or draw probably ends the season because DCU would be looking for "help" and making up 5 points in that short a stretch would be very difficult. After Philly shit the bed last night, I'm sure they will stagger for a while. But with that 11 point cushion, they have many lampposts to hold onto in their staggers.
(PPG avgs a bit out-of-date, but still useful...) Big win! Fun too watch! And Ben's absolutely right about this having been a big game, but still just one that makes it possible to continue our hunt for a playoff spot. We probably still need to win outright 3 of our last 5 games. Montreal has clinched the first tie-breaker: games won. Montreal is 12-15-4 with 3 games remaining, and we are 10-11-8. We already have 8 draws and the Montreal cannot end up with more than 7 draws. This means there is no way to tie on points and have as many wins as Montreal does. So padding our goal differential probably won't make any difference. Down this final stretch, we essentially need to win one more game than Montreal wins, and we play two more games. (Gaining 2 points will only put us into a tie on points, and that's not good enough.) The strange thing is that our 2 games in hand are really the October 13/17 games against Dallas/Toronto which are affected by the October international break. I have no idea whether playing during the break favors us or Dallas/Toronto. Note: Columbus now only has 48 points, only 1 point ahead of Philadelphia. Like Philadelphia, 1 of their remaining 3 games is also at home against Minnesota so they should end up with at least 51 points. Philadelphia (Home PPG 1.77, Road PPG 1.21) Projected Total Points 50 (5th place) (Current Points 47, Projected Future Points 3) Oct 6: Win - Minnesota (0.31/+1.46) Oct 21: Loss - NYRB (1.50/+0.27) Oct 28: Loss - at-NYFC (2.36/-1.14) DC United (Home PPG 2.20, Road PPG 0.31) Projected Total Points 49 (6th place) (Current Points 38, Projected Future Points 11) Oct 7: Win - Chicago (0.69/+1.51) Oct 13: Draw - Dallas (1.38/+0.82) {Affected by int'l break} Oct 17: Win - Toronto (0.71/+1.49) {Affected by int'l break} Oct 21: Win - NYFC (1.07/+1.13) Oct 28: Draw - at-Chicago (1.07/-0.54) Montreal (Home PPG 2.00, Road PPG 0.57) Projected Total Points 46 (7th place) (Current Points 40, Projected Future Points 6) Oct 6: Win - Columbus (1.00/+1.00) Oct 21: Win - Toronto (0.71/+1.29) Oct 28: Loss - at-New England (1.57/-1.00) New England (Home PPG 1.57, Road PPG 0.85) Projected Total Points 41 (8th place) (Current Points 35, Projected Future Points 6) Oct 6: Loss - at-Atlanta, (2.00/-1.15) Oct 13: Win - Orlando (0.50/+1.07) {Affected by int'l break} Oct 18: Loss - at-Salt Lake (2.36/-1.51) Oct 28: Win - Montreal (0.57/+1.00)
Amazing that, after such a long road trip, United's playoff fate is firmly in their hands. If they win 3 of their final 4 games, they're in the playoffs, guaranteed. Montreal can't catch a 50 point DC United. If United win both their games over the international break, that will leave them 4 points clear of Montreal (47 to 43), and just one point back of Columbus for the 5th seed. A win and a draw would put United at 2 points ahead of Montreal. This is not ideal, and it probably ends most realistic hopes of getting the 5th seed, but it is not the end of the world. According to www.sportsclubstats.com, 6 points over the final 4 games (2 wins and 2 draws, or a win and 3 draws) likely gets United in (70.4% chance). 7 points ups the odds to 89.5%. 8 points gets it to 91.1%. 9 points and up, as stated above, is guaranteed entry into the playoffs. If United can somehow win out, they actually have a shot at the 4th seed and a home playoff game. Vamos!
Strangely all the cards are falling in place, with the biggest being that Montreal has only 2 games left, and we have a big 4 of them which include 3 at home, and one on the road against Chicago (which who knows if they want revenge for last Saturday). Dallas will be a nail biter, but it is not impossible by any stretch. Our D is a big liability still, and I see that as a big issue going forward. But there's no reason we can't go forward. Yup 3 wins and this package is sign, sealed, and delivered.
NE - Currently 35 points - Maximum 44 points - 3 games to play DC - Currently 41 points - Maximum 53 points - 4 games to play MTL - Currently 42 points - Maximum 48 points - 2 games to play COL - Currently 48 points - Maximum 57 points - 3 games to play The most important number is MTL-Maximum minus DC-Current. It's now at 7. When it gets to -1 we qualify for the playoffs. When we win, it goes down by 3. When we tie, it goes down by 1. When MTL loses, it goes down by 3. When MTL ties, it goes down by 2. Next games: 10/13 DC vs. DAL NE vs. ORL
also, "team poutine" currently has +2 wins compared to DCU. So finishing with the same points would result in Montreal advancing on the first tiebreaker - wins. The math to arrive at a tie doesn't seem to allow for DCU to get to more wins, if I'm reading it correctly. So I think the effective magic number is 9.
3 teams competing for the last two slots. MTL - Currently 43 points - Maximum 49 points - 2 games to play DC - Currently 44 points - Maximum 53 points - 3 games to play COL - Currently 48 points - Maximum 54 points - 2 games to play
All teams have two games to play. We are four points ahead of Montreal. If we win our next game, or if Montreal loses, we qualify before playing the last game. Any DC win or any MTL loss in their last two games guarantees that DC United will be in the playoffs.
They go at 3 PM as well. As it should be. I'll be at the stadium with my phone charged to keep track!