Group C Predictions

Discussion in 'GROUP C: France, Peru, Denmark, Australia' started by almango, Dec 1, 2017.

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?

Who will qualify?

  1. France

    101 vote(s)
    85.6%
  2. Peru

    59 vote(s)
    50.0%
  3. Denmark

    48 vote(s)
    40.7%
  4. Australia

    14 vote(s)
    11.9%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. laurasoccerfreak

    Atlético Mineiro
    Brazil
    Nov 24, 2017
    It sounds great to be a "Euro top-4".
    But these were times when only 8 teams participated - and this was their home Euro so they didn't have to qualify. They ware automatically "top-8'.
    This means you pass 2nd out of a group of 4 and you're "Euro semi-finalist".
    I was curious and had a look on how they managed to finish 4th.
    These were their matches:

    0-0 against Spain
    1-0 against England
    0-0 against Belgium
    1-1 against Czechoslovakia (then lost in PK)
    (of course all of them at home)
    Does it really look impressive?

    I've posted before their stats pre and post the four '82matches.
    You may agree they don't look good at all.
    You can search as much as you want, but you'll never find records that show that this was a great team.
    Outside from those 4 matches, of course.
    These 4 matches made them a great team.

    Perhaps they were indeed under-performing. But if this is the way we agree to see, they weren't under-performing in the group stage. They have been under-performing the whole time. Years before the Argentina match and years after the West Germany match.

    And frankly ... arguments like "meaningless match", "team finding its form", "aging team" etc for events that happened 40 years in the past is not something we could go into. At such a distance we can only rely on big numbers law or on a well done research on media from that time - what no one of us will have time to do right in the week a WC is up to start.

    My point is - and anyone can disagree - what stays in history for that italian team (and for many others) is similar to FIFA's Player of the Year.
    What the best guys did during the year do not play such a roll.
    Someone who won an important title will get it.
    We keep on seeing images of those guys scoring, raising the trophy, we keep on seeing the same images of 4 very good matches they played and disregard the performances of 6 whole years around those matches.
    But the images remain. And we believe we have it all.

    OMG ... did FIFA change the cards and put Chile and Italy back to Russia 2018?
    Why do we insist on talking about them?
     
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  2. Toque de Barrio

    Sporting Cristal
    Peru
    Feb 19, 2018
    Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    Actually, the reference to that match was to exemplify that a team doesn't need to be great, before nor after, to defeat the odds.

    Point being, I don't see France as about to take a walk in the park, nor Australia defining the others' qualifications by how many goals Australia conceded.
     
  3. Toque de Barrio

    Sporting Cristal
    Peru
    Feb 19, 2018
    Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
  4. Jonathan Pimentel

    Aug 29, 2013
    Club:
    SL Benfica
    What is with all the talk about WC's from the 70's and 80's involved Brasil/Italy/Chile/etc...

    way to go off topic..
     
  5. condor11

    condor11 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 2, 2002
    New Zealand
    as far as topic in this thread...that was rather tame ;)

    anyways Gareca only doubt remains the attacking quartet...the goalie, defense and central mids are set in stone it appears (Gallese, Advincula, Ramos, Rodriguez, Trauco, Tapia and Yotun)

    Flores was tried instead of Carrillo and then Carrillo instead of Paolo Guerrero

    5 players into 4 attacking spots dont quite fit

    personally I would go with

    Flores------Farfan------Cueva
    -------------Guerrero

    and Carrillo as the fresh legs for second half
     
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  6. Toque de Barrio

    Sporting Cristal
    Peru
    Feb 19, 2018
    Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    I hope Gareca don't put Farfán in Cueva's place. Farfán hardly if ever recovers a ball, and doesn't do the job better than Cueva.

    And that argument of Guerrero and Farfán playing together since their childhood... yeah, them both have been loosing when playing together since their childhood.
     
    jlarosa repped this.
  7. jlarosa

    jlarosa Member

    Jan 14, 2009
    Miami Springs, FL
    Club:
    Alianza Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    Yea, i don't like them playing together. Guerrero starts it and Farfan can come in for Cueva in the second half or for guerrero. Either way, they can't play together from the get-go.
     
    954gator repped this.
  8. Pipiolo

    Pipiolo Member+

    Jul 19, 2008
    Nat'l Team:
    Argentina
    Once again you are applying natural events only to Italy 82. In the days of 16-team WCs, any host was automatically a top 16 team, and since all of them go through past the group stage, it was a shoe-in for being a top 8 team. That's the way it is, someone has to host the tourneys.

    Italy beat Argentina (eventual winners), France, Hungary and tied West Germany at WC78, that's a pretty impressive run. Brazil didn't look so impressive against USSR at WC82, and a thrashing of amateurs New Zealand is hardly a barometer of greatness.
     
  9. Hayaka

    Hayaka Member+

    Jun 21, 2009
    San Francisco North Bay, Bel Marin Keys
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    How do the Peruvians here feel about Gallese in goal? The match against Sweden was the only time I've seen him play. Great save on the shot by Claesson, but Gallese didn't have much to do otherwise. Does he play regularly for his club?
     
  10. laurasoccerfreak

    Atlético Mineiro
    Brazil
    Nov 24, 2017
    You get again to the few matches in the World Cup as the ones that define if a team is good or not.

    Some stats from the Euro '80 until the '82 Argentina match for Italy:
    8 victories in 24 matches - 24:21 goals
    (top teams: France 0:2, Netherlands 1:1, England 1:0)

    The absolutely same period for Brazil:
    25 victories in 33 matches - 83:21 goals
    (top teams: 4:1, 2:1, 3:1 and 1:0 West Germany, 3:1 France, 1:1 Argentina, 1:0 England)

    Still looking for a barometer for greatness?
    Brazil screwed up in the key match. That's it.
    And Italy had been a flag of mediocrity until that key match. They played like never before and won it.
    That's why we're talking about it until now, almost 40 years later.
     
  11. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    I already explained it to you in another thread, and don't need to go over all of it again, as for truth this is subject for another topic, but in general terms, with the ELO system, if teams don't play any matches, they will never lose any points, and they can keep their position almost for ever, so all that teams who want to manipulate the system, is win a few matches in order to raise their position in the rating list, and once reached the desired position, avoid playing another match against opponents that may take points away from you. For the case, if they don't play any match for 10 years, they get to keep the points they already have, for the same 10 years (this was one of the reasons that for FIFA, points won, only lasted for 4 years, losing weight as each year goes by).
     
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  12. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    That's easy to answer : For the same reasons why some other members (including yourself), that insist in putting out stuff on relation to Brazil 1982.
    ;)
     
    laurasoccerfreak repped this.
  13. laurasoccerfreak

    Atlético Mineiro
    Brazil
    Nov 24, 2017
    Indeed I was talking about myself.
     
  14. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    #2239 Rickdog, Jun 12, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2018
    Besides, I don't remember Brazil in any of those years win Copa America, and all I remember when it gets to Copa America, was how other "smaller" teams of Conmebol (Peru in 1975, Paraguay in 1979, Uruguay in 1983), trashed them (including our (Chile), biggest win against them in 1987).
     
  15. Ceres

    Ceres Member+

    Jan 18, 2004
    Aarhus, Denmark
    Club:
    AGF Aarhus
    Nat'l Team:
    Denmark
    #2240 Ceres, Jun 12, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2018
    Which is also why the Netherlands are way too highly ranked ... they have not managed to qualify for neither the WC-18 or Euro-16 (even finishing 4th in one of the weakest qualifying groups).... unlike Poland who qualified for both for the WC-18 and reached the Quarter-Finals at Euro-16 ... but the Netherlands have picked up lots of points way in the past against top teams which Poland have not and so the Netherlands are ranked 11th and Poland 19th based on games played ages ago ... btw, it was mentioned that friendlies almost count for nothing according to Elo ... then it's funny that Denmark just moved up two spots from 18 to 16 by beating a weak looking Mexico in a friendly ...
     
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  16. almango

    almango Member+

    Sydney FC
    Australia
    Nov 29, 2004
    Bulli, Australia
    Club:
    Sydney FC
    Nat'l Team:
    Australia
    They don't count for nothing, its just that less points get swapped between teams on friendly results. You can still move up the ladder if the next teams are close enough.
     
  17. maestri09

    maestri09 Member+

    Jun 14, 2006
    Toronto, Canada
    Club:
    Alianza Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    Gallese is a solid keeper, and doesn't make too many errors. He's very good on 1-on-1's, and the best peruvian GK I've ever seen when he plays outside the keeper's box. It's hard to say whether he's as good as the Neuer's or Schmeichel's of the world, I doubt it. But he's solid.

    He proved himself in the 0-0 game in Buenos Aires, when Argentina attacked the Peru goal from start to finish. He had recently suffered an injury in one of his fingers, which was supposed to sideline him for the last two games of qualifying, but trained and recovered ahead of time to everyone's astonishment (even his club team had taken him off their list of active players, as they thought he was out for the remainder of 2017). He was a surprise starter at the 'bombonera' and played the game of his life. That was when all the fans and press lost all doubt that he is a World Cup keeper.
     
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  18. laurasoccerfreak

    Atlético Mineiro
    Brazil
    Nov 24, 2017
    You're right. Brazil didn't perform well in the Copa America in the 70's and 80's.
    Brazil started considering Copa America an A-Team tournament in 1989 (perhaps due to lack of success in the World Cups).
    Indeed even as a football fan in Brazil I didn't know at that time that this competition existed. I think the media sort of ignored it. I don't know.
    I remember a tournament in 1975 they called "Copa America" and we did follow it, because they sent only players from my city to represent the CBF and as a young girl dreaming about playing football in my club (what was still impossible) I was very proud of it. I watched to the first international match live in the stadion, with the players of my club in the yellow jersey. But we didn't even know it was an official tournament. Now I know it was.
    Copa America 1987 turned out to be the debut of some U21 players who would be world champions in 1994.
    I think Zico played it once. I can't recall it, but I remember some years ago they said on tv everything he did in his Copa America was to get red cards.
     
  19. Rickdog

    Rickdog Member+

    Jun 16, 2010
    Santiago, Chile
    Club:
    CD Colo Colo
    Nat'l Team:
    Chile
    Zico was in the squad of Brazil for 1979, played 3 matches at group stage. Got a red card vs. Argentina on the 2nd match, away.

    At the semi's vs. Paraguay, 1st match away, he also played, but got red carded again and so, couldn't play at home for the 2nd match

    During those days (late 70's-early 80's), he was my favourite non-chilean player.
     
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  20. condor11

    condor11 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 2, 2002
    New Zealand
    I feel in Gallese we have a solid keeper who learnt a lot from being dropped by Gareca for matchday 3 and 4 of qualifiers

    I don't feel as secure in his backups. I don't think they are the number 2 and 3 of Peru (Caceda and Carvallo)

    I personally would have taken
    Leao Butron - dob 1977
    Alejandro Duarte - dob 1994

    But I think Gareca is happy how the 3 keepers interact and didn't want to rock the squad
     
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  21. Toque de Barrio

    Sporting Cristal
    Peru
    Feb 19, 2018
    Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    Interesting. So you explained things, on absurd situations, about something you don't know :p

    No side will stop playing during 10 years to claim a seed on... year 11? Besides, in most sports where Elo is used, a player or team goes into passive list after 1 or 2 years, and needs 10 games to re–enter it (new teams/players require 30). And frankly, if a side stops playing official matches during 2 years, it will likely miss the WC. (By the way, I explained this to you in this very same thread.)

    "...for the same 10 years (this was one of the reasons that for FIFA, points won, only lasted for 4 years, losing weight as each year goes by)."

    Tss, tss, nope. FIFA wanted to get money from Coca–Cola, and came with an absurd system of their own to justify it. Alas, Mexico was third in 1998 just by beating repeatedly those Caribbean islands. In Uefa, teams got full points when beating Andorra or Lichtenstein, while South Korea got a fraction when defeating Japan, because Asia had no better finishing positions than Uefa or Conmebol in WCs.

    The irrationality in FIFA rankings lead to Italy inside the same WCq group as Spain, and has lead to a WC group where both Spain and Portugal are together (making a next to impossible task for the other two).
     
  22. Toque de Barrio

    Sporting Cristal
    Peru
    Feb 19, 2018
    Lima
    Nat'l Team:
    Peru
    Gallese reminds me of a panther. See why:



    On the bright side (for Denmark fans), should Eriksen score a goal against Peru, there will be a nice video to brag about, because Gallese won't stay put. ;)
     
  23. Dominican Lou

    Dominican Lou Member+

    Nov 27, 2004
    1936 Catalonia
    Since we're talking Brazil now, I'd just like to add that this current Brazil is severely underrated. Most people have them going deep, into the semis at the very least, but I think they should be an even heavier favorite.

    I honestly can't remember a Brazil being this high quality before a World Cup since 1998 when they were an absolute machine and probably would have cruised to the championship if Romario stayed healthy.

    If they play the way they've been since mid 2016, no one can touch them.
     
  24. John Hansen

    John Hansen New Member

    Penarol
    Uruguay
    Apr 1, 2018
    I would have to - partly - agree on that. This is by far the best Brazilian squad I’ve seen since 1982. They are now stand alone favorite to win the cup at the sportsbooks. Still, especially som Europeans are oblivious about how well this Selecao team plays and how utterly clever coach Tete is.
     
  25. condor11

    condor11 Moderator
    Staff Member

    Apr 2, 2002
    New Zealand
    #2250 condor11, Jun 13, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 13, 2018
    Australia might be the least favorite team t advance but they do lead the group in international goals from players in wc squads..powered by Cahill's numbers

    Australia - 121 goals
    --Cahill 50 goals in 106 games
    --Jedinak 18 goals in 76 games
    --Leckie 8 goals in 53 games
    --Juric 8 goals in 35 games

    Peru - 97 goals
    --Guerrero 34 goals in 88 games
    --Farfan 25 goals in 84 games
    --Flores 9 goals in 30 games

    France - 87 goals
    --Giroud 31 goals in 74 games
    --Griezmann 20 goals in 54 games
    --Pogba 9 goals in 54 games
    --Matuidi 9 goals in 67 games

    Denmark - 65 goals
    --Eriksen 22 goals in 78 games
    --Jorgensen 8 goals in 31 games
    --Krohn-Dehli 6 goals in 59 games
     

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