2018 CONCACAF Champions League Thread

Ok. I see. But I already know when the Liga MX front offices will think CCL results are crucial. That will be the second the

My comment was not in reply to a specific comment (the magazine cover is the “inspiration”. It is a response about the cynical rationalizations that is often used to explain away results that favor MLS teams.

 

If two MLS teams advance we have the possibility that they play each other in the semi-finals and guarantees one is in the final.

Or if each plays a Mexican team and wins, we have a MLS final....imagination.

 

Club America could be the only Mexican team left

 

So NYRB vs TIJ is gonna be at 9pm EDT and TIG vs TOR is going to be at 11pm EDT because of the time change, correct? Just trying to get this right since I am in the central time zone and will have to stay up till 12am for that one then.

 

Mehico changes it's clocks the same time as the US and Canada.

 

According to MLSsoccer.com, and the CONCACAF website, the schedule looks like this:

Tuesday, March 13
New York Red Bulls v. Tijuana 8:00 pm EDT
UANL Tigres v. Toronto FC 10:00 pm EDT

Wednesday, March 14
Club America v. Tauro FC 8:00 pm EDT
Guadalajara v. Seattle Sounders 10:00 pm EDT

 

They do not currently. Daylight Saving Time in Mexico doesn't start until April 1. Some cities and areas close to the U.S. border do change on the same day as the U.S.

• Matamoros, Tamaulipas
• Reynosa, Tamaulipas
• Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas
• Anáhuac, Nuevo León
• Acuña, Coahuila
• Piedras Negras, Coahuila
• Ojinaga, Chihuahua
• Juárez, Chihuahua
• All of Baja California

And some Mexican states don't observe it at all.

But the CCL runs on U.S. time.

 

Tigres play Tijuana in Liga MX on Sat. I'm curious to see how each coach will manage their lineups. Play full strength trying to get 3 pts, play reserves to save for CCL game on Tues or a mixed strength squad.

TFC has a bye this week, so all regulars will be rested for Tues.

 

And to make your point, Dallas and Seattle winning in Mexico was shocking.

I do believe That this is only the 3rd time that an MLS team has defeated a Mexican team in Mexico and the first since Seattle did it in 2011. There have been some draws I think, but no wins since that 2011-2012 group stage in the CCL.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/02/17/how-bad-has-it-been-mls-teams-playing-mexico

In 2016, MLS lost all 4
In 2017 MLS lost both away legs.

So this is the only time I do believe than an MLS team has won the away game in an elimination round, so what the Red Bulls did was historic.

 

There are small chances of drawing, so being up a goal gives MLS teams a small life, anything less than that is basically a death sentence.

 

Making their inevitable collapse doubly historic. Can't wait!

 

If their numbers are correct.

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/02/17/how-bad-has-it-been-mls-teams-playing-mexico

Add the 6 losses since them, and lets include the win on Tuesday for fun.

So that is a 6.122% chance of winning and 16.33 change of drawing.

If we go by historical results.

If we add wins and draws (since both of those results would get MLS teams to the next round, that is a 22.45 chance advancing.

I do believe Suyuntuy is the closest.

 

Some people have looked at this (up to 2016).

https://www.prosoccerusa.com/mls/th...-versus-liga-mx-in-concacaf-champions-league/

Well so far the Real Salt Lake run in 2010-2011 is the best MLS has done (based on Goal Differential).

Obviously with the new format, the sample sizes are much smaller now, that is another reason I hate this new format so much, I prefer we go back to the old format.



To add to the chart above.

in 2016 MLS was -10 in 8 games or -1.25
in 2017 MLS was -4 in 4 games so -1.00

So far in 2018 MLS is +4 in 3 games or +1.33

So the best MLS Goal Differential ever (with still 2 brutal away games and 1 home game to go).

 

You don't take into account the fact that the Mexican teams need a win. They get exactly what they need. I am pretty convinced that if they needed 5 goals to advance, they'd go ahead and get that too. They are just unbeatable.

 

I found another recent article that keeps this in prespective, this is the best results for the first round for MLS vs Liga MX, the last best result?

https://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2018/03/08/mls-teams-sweep-liga-mx-sides-ccl-quarterfinal-first-legs

I am confident, that this time MLS team that advance will be more than zero.

I say 1, NJRB.

 

*facepalm*

 

4 sure.

Remember when then USL Montreal won the first leg 2-0 at home, then this happened.



What a melt down.

Really I only give New Jersey a good chance of advancing, they are at home, so a melt down like the one above is less likely.

I would not be surprised if one of the Seattle or Toronto can get a draw in Mexico, I highly doubt both will, and would not be shocked if both lose and get eliminated.

My money would be on Red Bulls, Chivas and UANL advancing.

 

Let's not be naive, we all know the most likely team to win the whole thing right now is America, and only Tigres has the strength to stop them.

But an all-MLS semi is a possibility. Tijuana has another speed, but they're on the ropes. And Chivas is not particularly strong in the former Omnilife.

Then, with some luck for us, the semis go RB vs. Sounders (with the Seattle team a clear fave, I'd say), and the other semi what should be considered the actual final, Tigres vs. America.

 

He might be a boring troll, but I actually agree with him here. I don't expect any MLS team to advance. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they do, but Liga MX teams have always managed to turn it up just enough to beat MLS teams when the pressure is on.

That has largely been aided by MLS teams utterly collapsing under even a tiny amount of pressure.

 

You forget a very important element here: the Mexicans overall are bored by the whole thing already.

They've won all nine tournaments in the Champions League era, and seven out of those nine were all-MX finals.

I bet at least one MLS team goes through.

 

The players sure didn't look bored in the first legs.