I thought this was interesting: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/04/18/live-updates-georgias-6th-district-special-election/ Updated at 6:15 p.m. — Reading the tea leaves Political analysts are getting wound up about a pair of Sandy Springs districts that could signal a stronger-than-expected Democratic turnout. The first is a precinct that Democrat Michelle Nunn won with 78 percent of the vote in 2014, meaning that it’s a trove of potential votes for Democrat Jon Ossoff. Turnout in that precinct has nearly doubled on Tuesday, an astounding feat for a special election. The second is a precinct in a more conservative stretch of Sandy Springs where Nunn only got about a third of the votes. Turnout there is only about half of what it was in 2014. “That ain’t good,” texted one GOP operative.
If it's anything close to 50%, it will be remarkable. As much as the democrats spent, the republicans have outspent Ossoff 2-1. The area might hate Trump, but they like conservatives. For more than 47-48 support for Ossoff will be surprising.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...2xRy9naqC5tWh8/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true# Good stuff here. The 2nd tab has County Benchmarks if Ossoff wants to reach the magic number. Earliest (small batch) are pretty good for Ossoff, who netted 71% of the first 10K votes in DeKalb county. He needs about 60% there.
Ossoff over 50% in DeKalb's Silver Lake precinct for Election Day votes - 648 of 1284 precinct went 45.47 Trump to 45.38 Clinton #gapol— Todd Rehm (@toddmr) April 19, 2017
854488950291009536 is not a valid tweet id Basically Ossoff is killing it in Dekalb. Exceeding what he needs to get to 50%
Well, the Election Day vote better be great for the GOP. Because the early vote is simply much better than expected for Ossoff pic.twitter.com/osJzYIF4VM— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) April 19, 2017
I don't understand the logic of this being over if he doesn't get 50%. What if he gets 46-48%? Is it that unreasonable to think that he could be the 2nd choice for that remaining 2-4%? Is Handel really that charismatic that she can bank on every non Ossoff vote? Keep in mind that there are 4 other fringe Democrats and a couple of fringe independents running as well. There may be about 1% to pick up there alone.
It matters because this area is pretty conservative/republican. They usually win 14-16+ at a minimum. The only way Ossoff realistically wins the runoff is if the Trump guy (Gray) is in before Handel. Trump barely beat Hillary in the district, that may be the only may I see Ossoff winning a run off.
My point is that if it's so conservative, they shouldn't let Ossoff get to around 48%. If Ossoff gets that high, it suggests that he has a modest chance. I mean the electorate in the run off will be very similar to tonight's electorate. No reason to think that Ossoff's 48% wouldn't come out again. From there he only needs to add a little to win. All speculation of course. If he finishes below 45%, I agree that it's unrealistic.
Ossoff at 62% with over 50,000 votes counted. Have no idea what this means since I don't know where the remaining votes are coming from.
You have a point, but I only see that happening if the Republican candidate is a Trump person. IMO, if Handel wins and has a 1 month+ to go after Ossoff, she will be in a strong position. Maybe Ossoff pulls it out, but his turnout has to be high again. I don't think that is as likely. Handel has distanced herself away from Trump. But if Trump goes all out for Handel, it may be close. Even if this district flips, it flips back the second Trump is out of office unless Ossoff impresses the district.
Gamecock, by the time Trump is out of office, the district won't be the same due to the census. I think you've got it right, for the reasons you cited, as well as SOME sore loser GOP voters.
This is the the local Atlanta NBC affiliate : http://www.11alive.com/elections The 12% reporting I just saw on Twitter, although this source claims it's only 4% reporting.
With 15% reporting, Ossoff is now at 57.8%. Handel is at 15.2%. Moody is at 8.3%. Gray is at 8%. Hill is at 7.3%.— Richard Elliot (@RElliotWSB) April 19, 2017
It seems like Ossoff's losing a percentage point with every batch of new precincts reporting. At this rate we could be looking at low 40s ... Oh well. With just over 19% counted, Ossoff is at 56.7%. Handel is at 16.2%. Moody, Gray and Hill trail.— Richard Elliot (@RElliotWSB) April 19, 2017
fvck you guys, you are making me care about this shitty race. I will tune in fully expecting a disappointment.
Important thing to remember is that Ossoff lives to fight another day no matter what. His background is investigative documentaries. Maybe he can investigate something on Handel ... maybe pics with an underage boy or something. Also the gossip around town says that Bill O'Reilly is done at Fox News. So there may be other minor victories today in other places.
The problem with Ossof failing to get over 50% is that a whole bunch of dedicated liberals convinced themselves that he really could win without a runoff, and they will be heartbroken by the "loss" -- a loss in which Ossof actually won a 1-1 race in the June runoff. Rather than be heartbroken, those liberals should double their organizing efforts starting tomorrow.
With 22% counted, Ossoff is now at 54% with Handel next at 17.6%. #GA06— Richard Elliot (@RElliotWSB) April 19, 2017
Who says I was speaking about liberals in the GA-06? Sometimes you try to pick really uninteresting fights.