2017 MLS Season Prognostication Thread

Here are my sure to be completely wrong predictions.

EAST

1. Toronto
2. New York City FC
3. Montreal
4. New York Redbulls
5. Atlanta
6. Columbus
7. Philadelphia
8. Orland0
9. New England
10. Chicago
11. DC United

WEST

1. FC Dallas
2. Seattle
3. Vancouver
4. Los Angeles
5. Portland
6. Sporting Kansas City
7. Colorado
8. San Jose
9. Real Salt Lake
10. Houston
11. Minnesota FC

Supporters Shield: FC Dallas
MLS Cup: FC Dallas
USOC: FC Dallas
MVP: Giovinco
Golden Boot: Giovinco

 

I'll limit myself to four modest yet assuredly negative minded predictions. [1] The Revs do not make the playoffs. [2] The Galaxy do not make the playoffs [3] Curt Onalfo is fired. [4] Jay Heaps is not....

 

In the East ...

1) Toronto
2) Montreal
3) Chicago
4) Columbus
5) NYCFC
6) Atlanta

7) DC
8) Red Bull
9) Orlando
10) Philadelphia
11) New England

 

MY MLS predictions are below, but here's the big prediction sure to go wrong:

FCD beats Tigres to win 2016-2017 CONCACAF Champions League

West:

1) Seattle
2) Portland
3) Dallas
4) Kansas City
5) Colorado
6) Los Angeles

East:

1) Toronto
2) NYCFC
3) NYRB
4) Montreal
5) DCU
6) Orlando

Supporter's Shield: Seattle Sounders
MLS Cup: FC Dallas beats TFC
US Open Cup: Sporting Kansas City

MVP: Nicolas Lodeiro
Golden Boot: Sebastian Giovinco
Defender of the Year: Walker Zimmerman
Goalkeeper of the Year: Andre Blake
Rookie of the Year: Ian Harkes
Newcomer of the Year: Miguel Almiron

 

Ok, let me totally butcher things here...

East
1) Toronto - Return the entirety of the team with the 3rd best goal differential in the league. No major age or injury concerns to start the season. I mean, things could go wrong, and they've shown a weakness to teams that can counter attack through midfielders with speed, but its the most solid team in the east.

2) DC United - Return the same core that finished the year strong last year. No major changes and no reason to expect them not to do well in 2017. The concern though is with Sam and Nyarko's health, if they catch injuries there things could go wrong fairly quickly.

3) New York Red Bull - Largely the same team, but out is Dax with no current replacement. Meanwhile the team is switching formations, which is an added element of instability. This team starts the year weaker and more uncertain then last year.

4) Columbus - Last year was a statistical aberation, their offense created far more chances then they cashed in. Expect them to regress to the mean and score more this year. They also completely overhauled their defense, and if its just a little bit better then last year, that makes them a very difficult team to beat.

5) New England - This is where it gets hard in the East, as the differences between teams seems pretty small. 2 actual centerbacks. Imagine that? They have depth issues on the back line, but should feature a solid attack, and if they improve their defense to just "decent" that should get them in the playoffs comfortably.

6) Montreal - Montreal isnt making any changes. Defense is a concern, but thats common in the East. They know what they are though, and should get decent results.

7) Chicago - This team will not be pretty. But with Dax and Juninho forming a wall in front of their back line, they should be hard to break down, and with Accam and de Leeuw going on the break with their new DP signing at forward, they should cobble together a decent attack.

8) NYCFC - Their defense was awful, and I dont see much help on the way. Their attack probably overachieved, and is to a certain degree reliant on the aging Villa and Pirlo. Definitely a team that needed to try and improve, and it seems like they largely stood pat. Lots of squad turnover, but its hard to see how most of it actually impacts the starting 11.

9) Philadelphia - A team that in some ways could have gotten better results with how they played. But they are relying on Pontius to stay healthy, and have made some bizarre off season moves (Simpson, Oneywu) that dont inspire confidence. In the end, Im going to think this team will suffer with no clear core, and not seeminly being able to decide if they are building for today or tomorrow. They also faded toward the end of the season, playing noticebly worse.

10) Orland0 - The team was bad last year, and with Kaka getting a year older, I cant talk myself into them getting better. And every other team either started ahead of them or made improvements. That said, it was hard to place them below Atlanta.

11) Atlanta -Their young DP attack are a bunch of players with unproven production, their old DP forward is on the downside of his career. Their 2 CMs behind them are either unproven or MLS journeyman quality. Their backline is questionable relying on the aging Mears and Parkhurst, who looks worse every year. This looks like a team that is going to to be scored on a lot, with an attack that is occasionally sublime but often dysfunctional.

West

1) FC Dallas - Dallas has done an excellent job of building their roster, and should continue to roll in 2017. No reason to doubt this side at this point.

2) Seattle - Beware the danger of being figured out. But to start the season they have plenty of attacking talent, and a solid defense to back it up. One area of concern however is a general lack of speed in attack and a lack of good wide plays. Teams that gum up the central channel could really slow this team down.

3) Portland - They have added some pieces to attack and defense, and frankly were a little snake bitten last year, playing a bit better then their results. This team is well set up to rebound in 2017.

4) Colorado - This is where it gets hard in the west. Colorado had a great defense anchored by some great goalkeeping. But their attack was suspect, and they did nothing to improve it. They were also 5-0-3 with Jermaine Jones in the starting XI, and said goodbye to him. Howard, an aging keeper, was great, but injury has to be a concern at this point. Their defense should help them grind out wins, but their margin is razor thin.

5) Sporting Kansas City - They dont seem to have done anything to curb their reliance on Dom Dwyer for goals, which is worrisome. That said, they seemed to play better then their results. Their changes dont seem like they will be terribly impactful either, so its a team largely standing pat.

6) Los Angeles - How many points is Bruce Arena worth? Thats largely what LA is going to be answering this season. In some ways their roster is better constructed, but in others there is reason to think LA got a little lucky posting there league leading goal differential. In the end I keep circulating back to the original question, and I have to think quite a few. Still a playoff team, but cracks in the backline that Arena successfully hid will show up this year.


7) San Jose - San Jose may seem like an odd choice here, but they had the 5th best defense in the league last year, and they took steps to strengthen it. Everyone who was better is ranked above them. The reason is simple, their offense was bad last year. But a big part of that was exceptionally bad finishing from normally solid players like Dawkins and Wondolowski. They have added to the attack as well, and their defense gives them a very low bar to hit. They merely have to be league average to post a positive goal differential.

8) Real Salt Lake - RSL is a bit hard to read. They basically lost their 3rd and 4th best attacking players, with no clear replacements on the roster. Rusnak if he plays well could fill this gap, but its unknown how he will transition into MLS. Meanwhile, Beckerman and Rimanodo get a year older. And its ultimately that last reason I post them here, their offense doesnt look to be better, and it seems like their defense is bound to be worse.

9) Vancouver - Vancouver strikes me as a team that doesnt seem to understand where their problems lay. In a year where they gave up the most goals in the western conference, they did nothing to strengthen their defense. Instead, they have added a number of attacking players. However they desperately lack a #9 to spearhead the attack. So while they in theory should score more goals, its hard to see them doing that well enough to offset their lack of defense.

10) Houston - They have definitely upgraded their attack, but they are also starting Leonardo in central defense. Trying to outscore your opponents in a western conference stacked with teams that are hard to score upon doesnt seem like the best strategy. They should be more open and more fun, but ultimately I see them giving up too many goals.

11. Minnesota FC - Just I look at this roster and dont see enough talent at this point. Relying on Molino to be the man seems like a stretch, Vanegas was a solid if unspectacular player in Montreal, which means their attack relies on Kedrii and guys who were in the USL 2 years ago. And defensively the team doesnt seem built to grind out results either. They will probably be competitive, posting 7 or 8 wins and not to embarassing a GD, but in the end I dont think there is enough talent to take them far.

 

EAST
1. Toronto FC
2. NY Red Bulls
3. DC United
4. Philadelphia Union
5. Atlanta United FC
6. Chicago Fire
7. Montreal Impact
8. Columbus Crew SC
9. New York City FC
10. New England Revolution
11. Orlando City SC

WEST
1. FC Dallas
2. Portland Timbers
3. Seattle Sounders FC
4. Vancouver Whitecaps FC
5. Real Salt Lake
6. Colorado Rapids
7. Los Angeles Galaxy
8. Sporting Kansas City
9. Houston Dynamo
10. San Jose Earthquakes
11. Minnesota United FC

EAST FINAL: Toronto def. NY Red Bulls
WEST FINAL: Dallas def. Portland
MLS CUP: Dallas def. Toronto

MVP: Sebastian Giovinco
Golden Boot: Jordan Morris
GK: Bill Hamid
Defender: Matt Hedges
Rookie: Miles Robinson
Newcomer: Sebastian Blanco

 

Forgot this one.... first coach fired: Dominic Kinnear

 

I'm going to call you on your analysis of NYCFC - not that it's your responsibility to keep up with every team. I just want to point out they definitely didn't stand pat.

Chanot will be back after joining mid-year, and he has all the tools to be a top CB in MLS. He'll be joined by Peruvian international Callens. Backed up by jupiler veteran Brillant. Ditching shite Hernandez is huge, as was shipping out Slosh Saunders and bringing in The Milk Man.

The best midfielder from the CONMEBOL u20 championships joins in Herrera, as does Finnish international Alex Ring. Many are expecting Pirlo to be platooned out regularly, especially vs. higher pressing teams. I think there's a good chance he becomes a home only starter at some point.

The team added a playmaker that actually moves and contributes on both sides, meaning we won't be playing what was effectively a 442 with Fat Frank as a traffic cone who never leaves the attacking third. It will also help Harrison not have to work quite so solo on the wing. Villa is Villa. He'll get his goals. Ugo has looked somewhat competent in backing him up.

Rodney Wallace and Paraguayan international Camargo will help on the wings, as will the super impressive with US u20 Jon Lewis.

Basically, there are 3-4 expected contributors left from a year ago that look likely as starters. Team may not win a game. But standing pat isn't even close to accurate.

We supporters are all pretty excited that most of the Kreistians have been exiled. Roster is nearly repaired from his horrendous efforts. I kno the squad is better, but given over performance last year, could see a similar or slightly lower point total.

I'd go:
TFC
NYCFC
Montreal (could switch them with RB at 4)
Red Bull
Columbus
DC
Atlanta
NER
Philly
Orlando

I don't know the west nearly as well outside of the big clubs. I think Houston will do decent. Like their new coach. I'm doing some serious guessing otherwise, and don't feel good about most of it.
West:
Dallas
Seattle
Portland
LAG
Skc
Colorado
Houston
Vancouver
RSL
SJ
MIN

 

East
1. Toronto (Supporters Shield)
2. NYRB
3. Montreal
4. Columbus
5. DCU
6. NYC
7. Atlanta
8. Orlando
9. Philly
10. Chicago
11. NER

West
1. Dallas (MLS Cup)
2. Seattle
3. SKC
4. LAG
5. RSL
6. Portland
7. Colorado
8. SJE
9. Vancouver
10. Houston
11. Minnesota

I expect the top two in each conference to be pretty comfortably better than everyone else, NE and the West bottom four to be comfortably worse, and everyone else to be really even.
I'm taking a flyer on New England for the wooden spoon, but it really could be any of the bottom five

 

Ok, first off if you think Saunders for Johnson is an upgrade, Ive got some bad news. You didnt upgrade there, it was a lateral move.

Second Chanot was on the field when you guys were getting squashed like bugs by Toronto in the playoffs. The only change from your back 6 that you made from that performance is Iraola for Ring, which I dont necessarily see as an upgrade and Callens who you got from a mid tier segunda division team. He is a Peruvian international though, so maybe I underestimated him.

As for Harrera Ill admit to discounting him out of hand, because the history of loans from EPL academies is not good.

That leaves Wallace, who will help you defensively but hurt you offensively (probably a worthy trade) and Pirlo (which is interesting news) but those are help you defensively but hurt you offensively type moves. You have give to get.

So let me rephrase my comment about standing pat. In terms of offense and defense, they really didn't change how resources were balanced. You still have 3/5 of the team's back 5 being the same, you picked up a 2. Bundesliga and a Segunda division player to add to that, not exactly moves that blow my socks off. And the team didnt go out at all and try to add depth or options beyond those moves. And you replaced one inconsistent, mid tier goalkeeper with another. I dont see that as reinvesting in the defensive side of the ball this year either.

Now, the Pirlo news is big, and I hadnt heard that. That could definitely impact things. And while Wallace will get you points with wing defense, unless Pirlo sees a lot of time on the bench and you switch to higher pressure, I dont know how much of a difference that will make. And Im only talking about defense here because you gave up 55 goals. You have to repeat last years offensive performance to be a good team, so to me upgrading your offense just means your less likely to regress (and Im assuming regression offensively). Which is why the Moralez move doesnt register much for me. He has to be good or your in a lot of trouble.

So maybe I bump you above Chicago or Montreal? But I don't see that as being a large bump.

 

So I don't expect everyone to watch everything about us, but our midfield was a blackhole last year. The whole narrative of NYC in MLS media is so off. I mean, there are tons of columns about Tmac deserving a call-up, and he's nowhere near good enough or athletic enough for international play. He's below par in any position except around the box - tries hard elsewhere, but not at all up to it. And our playing out of the back is really a fiction in my opinion, as it usually consisted in "pass the ball until we find Pirlo, and then let him kick it long. Or just pass it until we concede the ball in a terribly dangerous place." Now, we have a few box to box options actually capable of the role.

We just weren't very good last year in reality. I mean, we started Mikey Lopez in a playoff match. I happen to rate the new guys as being above average to good for MLS based on what I've seen so far. But even if they are a notch or two below that, I think the team got much more functional just by losing a lot of dead weight.

As for SJ, I think you're underestimating just how bad Saunders was/is. He was a total disaster, with horrendous positioning, anticipation, and distribution. The guy can't even get his goal kicks to midfield. It's going to be practically impossible for that not to be an upgrade. Even though SJ is still settling in, he definitely appeared smarter and a better passer. The better athleticism is a given.

I also think Moralez will have a good impact, whether he plays a tucked in LW or we go with him as the front of a midfield three (or really anywhere - he passes and moves and has technical skill, so that right there beats 80% of what we put out in similar roles last year). He can basically cover the same areas as TMac and Fat Frank combined.

If PV does decide to insist on Pirlo every game, I could see us skating into the 4-6 range. If we mix it up and sit him situationally, I think we're 2 or 3. We obviously view some things differently, though. I see mean reversion hammering DC down, as I don't think anything about their style of play or the caliber of players indicates that their run is repeatable for the duration of a season.

Columbus is a big sleeper for me, as they could actually be a really strong team if the new central defense pairing meshes and Trapp plays up to 1/3 of his prior hype (former seems likely, latter - not so much).

I think Red Bull will be a definite playoff team because MLS teams largely don't handle high pressure too well, but it's also not completely out of the question that they are ripe for a melt down with the issues they've had swirling about. Predicting the playoffs is still my choice, as I think their system in this league could get you close 40 points with USL talent.

Montreal will make the playoffs, almost guaranteed.

I mean, the more I sit here and consider my thoughts and others takes, the more I am only really confident in saying TFC is the cream, Orlando a notch below everyone, Atlanta won't make the make the playoffs. Everything else is a grab bag, where NYC, MTL and RBNY should shake out to claim some spot in the playoff pecking order due to coaching as much as anything else. Should make for a fun year.

 

Where is the Weekly predictions league thread!!????!???

 

Sean Johnson to Vieira-led NYC is a really weird move considering he fell out of favour at Chicago due to not being good enough with the ball at his feet