Approaching this logically - there isn't an obvious world class guy with better data than Giroud who can realistically be signed. Greasy. Lewa. That's about it. Chances are Alexis will have a better season - more like his first season. Giroud won't do better. This is why I would have been excited about signing Mhki / Mahrez for the right sided attacker. IMO that is the position the missing goals could come from on top of a swing back from last seasons underperformance of xG
IIRC, Arsenal underperform by xG on a yearly basis. Part of it is poor quality finishers (Ozil in particular) and part is that xG doesn't yet take into consideration the position of defenders and we often shoot with at least one defender plus the keeper between the ball and the goal line.
Ozil is a very high quality finisher! He just doesn't take many shots - around 2 per game on average One reason he has a high conversion rate is he only takes on high % shots
Stats Bomb have tended to sum things up quite well. The only people better than Giroud who are possibly available are 1. Named Greasy/Lewy 2. Are a younger guy who is going to break out - hard to predict So Wenger seems to be betting the house on Alexis and Ozil But can Ozil really have a better season? At best he will be at last seasons form. Moving forward, as ever there’s a ton of good. Perennially underrated, Mesut Ozil had one of the great Premier League creative seasons last year with 146 key passes for 19 assists landing just shy of Thierry Henry’s league record of 20. There was some ill-informed analysis about late last season that did a quick bit of maths and decided that finding only 13% of his key passes turning into assists should somehow be held against him, and typically anti-Ozil narratives seem to take hold far too easily. Of course they miss the point, Ozil is a special player, should be regarded as such and creating chances at a better rate than anyone in the league? That’s a really good thing. Here’s a chart of all the non-corner derived shots he created, the locations are excellent and even if his teammates struggled to finish the chances, the 19 overall assists is still a phenomenal return: Without bringing in a decent winger with shot volume, its hard to see how we can really expect different results. Especially with the injury procession already starting. http://statsbomb.com/2016/08/a-draft/
Reus would be great but a) the injury concerns b) he recently signed a new long deal at BvB I'd prefer Draxler
then he's not a high quality finisher, is he? If he only takes high %shots. We could probably find defenders with very good conversion rates too.
DeAndre Jordan has led the NBA in FG% for the past 4 years. No sane person would argue that he's a good shooter. Ozil is a poor finisher.
He has a very high conversion rate - so I would argue he is a high quality finisher. i.e. good shooting locations, high accuracy etc. But obviously not a great goal scorer. It's the same issue Hazard has. If you are only shooting 2 x per game you are only going to score 10 goals + or - per season. However as a midfielder I am not sure I would expect Ozil to shoot 4 times per game. He'd need to play as a genuine forward for that.
Well finishing is generally the combination of ability to get into high value locations, as well as shooting accuracy. Think van Persie. But as Ozil is not playing as a 9, he won't find himself in those shooting positions nearly as often. Yet his accuracy is good, and his spatial positioning excellent. So yes - I believe he is a good finisher. Of course if he decided to spam many more lower quality shots on goal, he could inflate his overall tally, however that would arguably be subotimum for the team who are pursuing a high xG strategy Of course Ozil could play as say the left sided forward and then we would expect him to shoot far more - but would this be a sensible change to want him to make?
And in Ozil's case it's been in the minus of 10 every year of his career. He's scored 9 goals twice and hasn't gotten past 6 goals in his other seasons.
I don't have time to search for the end of season chart but as you can see here, Ozil has very good xG for a midfielder. So the idea he is a not a good finisher is misconceived. Of course his xG is much lower than a genuine forward - but he is not a forward!
His numbers are very similar to Toni Kroos at Bayern. A guy who is known for being a very good shooter. The bottom line is a midfielder is not going to get in high xG locations nearly so often. We all "know" anecdotally that Ozil could shoot a bit more, but when you see his overall xG+xA p/90 last season its hard to argue he is getting it wrong over a season. Easy to pick on those groan moments. Of course Ozil could start spamming to get his volume up - but would it help the team? I think its doubtful but you could make the argument Arsenal should pursue more shot dominance Personally I just don't think Ozil is the problem
Well, he is our no.10, which in the old days, would be considered part of the forward. Even if he's considered a midfield, he is the most advanced of the midfield. In a one striker formation, should we expect double digit goals from our most advanced midfielder?
kroos isn't a very good finisher either. I think the main point is that if these players were very good finishers, they'd be playing as forwards. Ozil is not a midfielder like Kroos is a midfielder. His primary task is to attack. I'd say he is closer to James than Isco if we're looking at atacker vs. midfielder in profile.
According to this French pundit/ L'Equipe 21 TV contributor, Arsenal has submitted a £35 M offer for Mahrez. Apparently a 30 M offer has been rejected. "Le Spectre" Arsenal vient de faire une offre de 35 millions de livres ! concernant "Marhez" priorité de "Wenger"— GillesFavard (@GillesFavard) August 10, 2016
He may settle on Mahrez and putting Alexis up front when needed. I wouldn't be adverse to it. Theo would be on the wing now. Iwobi/Ox -- Alexis -- Mahrez I'll take it.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/aug/10/leicester-bid-gabriel-gabigol-barbosa-brazil-santos Wasn't there rumors we were in for him?
Hahaha Wenger and Co. are in full meltdown mode to find people. Guess that means they are finally on a normal club level as far as actually trying to do transfers.