Updating scenarios for advancing to the next round [R]

Current
USA 8 - remaining: PAN, JAM
JAM 5 - remaining: SLV, USA
PAN 5 - remaining: USA, SLV
SLV 3 - remaining: JAM, PAN

If the USA defeats Panama then we advance -> The win puts us out of reach of El Salvador, and a win over Panama would put us 6 points ahead of them with one game to play.

If the USA ties Panama AND El Salvador beats Jamaica, then we advance ->
Jamaica's loss puts them 4 back with 1 to play, and with Panama and El Salvador playing each other in the final match, only one can catch us.

All other scenarios become dependant on the final round of games in November.

EDIT:
removed oddity at the end that was based on an incorrect table - the scenarios are the same:
http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/06/en/t/group/index.html?zone=ncc

 

I would also mention that if the US ties Panama, and Jamaica beats or ties ES, the US can do no worse than face a goal difference or other tiebreak even if they lose their last match with Jamaica.

If they lose to Panama, it gets complicated, but even then, a win against Jamaica puts the US through.

 

I don't know what the exact order of the tie-breakers is, but I'd be willing to bet that goal differential will be involved. Here's the current goal differentials of the teams:

USA +4
Jamaica +2
Panama +0
El Salvador -6



So if the US draws with Panama, then as stated above they will be tied for 2nd place even if they lose to Jamaica. For the US to not advance to the next round Panama would need to beat El Salvador and the US lose to Jamiaca by a combined margin of -5 goals. For example, the US could lose to Jamaica 2-0 and Panama beat El Salvador 3-0.

Also, I think that also means a scenario with the US and another team tied on goal differential and results would mean a one game playoff. For example, a 2-0 US loss to Jamaica and a 2-0 Panama win over El Salvador.

Anyway you slice it, if the US gets at least a tie on wednesday they will be sitting in a good position. If the US loses they still have a very good chance of making it to the next round.

 

The second tiebreaker after goal differential is goals scored. Right now:

USA-6
Jamaica-6
Panama-5

If points, goal differential, AND goals scored are all tied, THEN I believe there will be a playoff. I don't think head to head is considered.

 

I vote we just beat Panama on Wednesday and be done with it.

 

That would be my preference. Like Henry David Thoreau said, "simplify, simplify."

 

Amen, brother. Beat Panama and go to the hex through the front door. Then give the youth a chance to show their stuff against Jamaica.

 

against a Jamaica DESPARATLY looking for a point.

kind of interesting to look at who advances out of 2nd place. Right now the advantage looks like it'll goto Jamaica based upon the point they stole in Panama,

my guess is that we beat Panama by 2, and Jamaica beats the Sallies by 1.

that would put Jamaica at a +4 point differential from Panama. But, if we beat Jamaica, then Panama could tie Jamaica with a 3 - 0 victory over the already defeated Sallies. If Jamaica screws up again against ES and only ties them, then they'll be all out for 3 points against USA

 

does anyone know if final standings have any bearing on how teams are seaded,play one another in the final group stage. I know each team should play the other home/away, but sometimes there are some weird rules they come up with, ...any here ?

..just thinking maybe top teams from each group might have first choice into scheduling or something..or to cut down on games result would be carried over btw teams that advanced out of the same group... sounds weird but i wouldn't be surprised if it happend

 

The preliminary competition format posted on fifaworldcup.com does not state any type of complexity that would denota seeding in the final round of qualification.

http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/releases/concacaf_preliminary_format_en.pdf

3rd Stage
-> 6 Teams (1 group)
-> League System on Home and Away Basis
-> The 3 top teams from the group will qualify for the 2006 FIFA World Cup Germany


...Note on 4th place finisher

 

IASocfan is correct. Courtesy of FIFA (http://fifaworldcup.yahoo.com/releases/en/fwc_regulations_2006_090604_en.pdf), page 6:

7 In the league system the ranking in each group is determined as follows: (a) greater number of points obtained in all the group matches;
If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above criterion, their ranking shall be determined as follows:
(b) greater number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
(c) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
(d) greater number of goals scored in the group matches between the teams concerned;
(e) goal difference in all the group matches;
(f) greater number of goals scored in all the group matches;
(g) a play-off on neutral ground.

 

this changes things then

knowing that Jamaica will more than likely defeat ES you gotta think that Panama will go balls out for 3 points Wednesday rather than bunker down and hold out for a point.

Bruce has to be very careful here. He got out-coached last time we played Panama. I think it might be wise to field our track team, play both Zav and Mastro and concentrate on destroying the middle and attacking with Pace.

 

I believe the hex is pretty simple--home and away against 5 other teams. Can't think of any issues. Is there any good day to play in Azteca? Somehow I doubt it.

As for playing the game versus Jamaica if it becomes meaningless, I would expect Bruce to reduce the number of European players called up and go with a mostly MLS squad. Although there would be little to gain points-wise, the US players would be playing for a spot on the USMNT, which is a pretty decent motivation for most of them.

 

I hate this because it puts Panama at a disadvantage. Completly unfair to them. While they have to play USA going all out, Jamaica gets to play a watered down version of USA.

 

Although I would much rather see Panama in the hex (I've been there and it's a great country to visit. The undiscovered gem of Central America.) I would expect Bruce to consider his relationship with the European players and their teams to be more important than giving Panama a break. Sometimes life isn't fair.

 

This happens all the time in UEFA especially, but I have no sympathy for any team that ever finds itself in this situation. Every team starts the round controlling its own fate and Panama has had a pair of great opportunities at home to take control. They failed on both opportunities. Any team that tries to place the blame for its own inadequacies at the feet of another team that already did what it had to do doesn't deserve to advance.

I don't like the "gentlemen's agreements" that pop up from time to time, where teams conspire in advance for a particular result. At the very least the game should be an honest competition. But if Arena earns the chance to play a younger, less experienced side in November against an all-out Jamaica side, then that's Bruce's right. Every single game at this point is a potential learning experience and proving ground for somebody, and I would expect our players of whatever experience or skill level to go all-out to win that game. If Jamaica happens to be better on that day, so be it. Panama's primary blame would have to be on themselves for not putting away either the US or Jamaica at home when they had the chance.

 

oh I know we've earned the right to do this. it just sucks that Panama gets the short end of it and their only fault is the luck of the draw.

hopefully we beat Jamaica to make this a moot discussion.

or a "Moo" point as Joey Tribioni would put it

 

Just to clarify, we haven't earned it yet.

It would suck for them as they've proven to be a class side, but if they learned how to hold a lead at home they wouldn't be in this predicament.

As far as who I'd prefer to take to the hex, I really don't care either way and I doubt that Bruce cares. We should be able to beat both sides at home. That's why I would expect him to tell whoever plays against Jamaica to go all-out and show what they can do.

 

I am of the opinion that we can put a very strong 11 on the field with MLS players alone. The issue for me is more of how hard will we try to win vs who are the players we use.

I truely belive we have very good players here in MLS that can kick jamaica butt, if Brucy and Co. want to.

 

I'd like to see the youth as well but I'd also like to put Jamaica out of the hex.

 

According to a piece in the Salvadoran press (sorry, no link handy), Bruce indicated he would field full strength line-ups in the last two qualifiers. I suspect that he will, too, or at least something close. Who would you rather face in the Hex, Jamaica or Panama?