Hello all. So, in 2006 I created a friendly thread to remind guys going to the WC not to get their gurlyfriends pregnant nine months before kickoff. I updated the thread for 2010 as well as 2014. I would like to create a thread for our betting chance for every WC. Mods, forgive me if this is not the proper USNMT forum. the odds are simply what money markets are saying, this is no endorsement blah blah blah. You get the point. So that you understand. If you bet 1 dollar on the US getting eliminated in the group stage you will recieve, lol, 1.22 back. If you bet 1 dollar on the US winning the WC you get 201 back etc... Which round will USA reach? 1.22Eliminated in the group stage 5.502nd Round Knockout 13.00Eliminated in the quarter-finals 41.00Eliminated in the semi-finals 101.00Runner up 201.00
2nd round is honestly worth a flyer at those odds. Most of the stats analysts have it more like 3:1 or even just 5:2 against.
Using @Edgar 's model we have something like a 1.5% chance of winning this thing and a ~40% chance of getting out of our group so there is +EV all over the place at those odds.
yeah, I think the other interesting thing about getting out is looking at the competition. It would be the winner of group H which would most likely be Belgium, Russia, SK and Algeria in that order. I would def take those conditional odds as well. lol, it would be so much easier if LD were playing just to know our own playing quality... As I said on the Ghana and Portugal review; after watching both play last night, I am much less worried about not getting out of the group. No thanks to JK, no less. So assuming we get out of the group, given that we would play one of the weakest if not worst group on paper, it would almost be foolish to bet on the 1/8th exit. Plus the odds discrepency between 1/8th and 1/4th is so large that if you assume the US to get out, might as well say they exit at quarters. Or you bet big on US exiting in group. Really just a binary outcome, I guess: flaming group exit or quarters+
wow. our odds got worse after the ghana game. Result (3Way) Saturday - 6/21/2014 9:00 PM 1.28Germany 5.75X 9.00Ghana Monday - 6/23/2014 12:00 AM 5.00USA 3.90X 1.62Portugal
update on exit: Which round will USA reach? 1.80Eliminated in the group stage 2.602nd Round Knockout 7.50Eliminated in the quarter-finals 34.00Eliminated in the semi-finals 81.00Runner up 151.00winner
Have you guys read Nate Silver's article on odds/rankings yet? If not, it's a good read - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-brazils-world-cup-to-lose/
I'm just pointing out that the 36 percent chance of advancing was before the World Cup started. The odds of elimination in each round in Post 6 of this topic result in these probabilities: Eliminated in Group Stage: 49.5% Eliminated in Round of 16: 34.3% Eliminated in Quarterfinals: 11.9% Eliminated in Semifinals: 2.6% Second Place: 1.1% First Place: 0.6%
yeah. one hour ago if you had bet 1 dollar you would have recieved 5 back. now you would recieve 4.25 back for a usa win. i was checking every 5 min and it jumped almost 20% so the pro bettors prolly through 1-2 million after the news. i fully expect it to continue to go significantly cause of pro bettors. alot of casual fans who bet on pt are sharting themselves now.
Here's a good breakdown of odds at the various outlets: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/usa-v-portugal/winner. A history breakdown of how the odds changed over the past two days is here: http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/usa-v-portugal/winner/bet-history/usa/today I'd love to see a better, perhaps more visual, representation though.
wow!!!! Which round will Costa Rica reach? 1.352nd Round Knockout 4.00Eliminated in the quarter-finals 12.00Eliminated in the semi-finals 34.00Runner up 67.00winner for some reason mex and usa have been re moved for several days. also usa v. pt is now at 4.5
That converts to these probabilities: USA win: 24.0% Draw: 25.3% Portugal win: 50.6% The sum is only 99.9% due to rounding.
3-Weg - Ergebnis 3.80USA 3.75X 1.85 Goal bet (regular time) 12.001-0 9.750-0 8.250-1 20.002-0 7.001-1 9.500-2 12.002-1 13.002-2 8.251-2 51.003-0 51.003-3 15.000-3 29.003-1 251.004-4 13.501-3 36.003-2 23.002-3 201.004-0 31.000-4 126.004-1 26.001-4 126.004-2 51.002-4 251.004-3 126.003-4 20.00
great news! World Cup 2014 - Group G 6:00 PM Which teams will qualify for the 2nd round from group G? 1.01Germany 1.20USA 5.50Ghana 8.00Portugal also 1:13 for the 2-2
the betting world is absolute bizzaro when looking at the gh game. Result (3Way) Thursday - 6/26/2014 6:00 PM 8.25USA 2.80X 1.70Germany 3-way - result 2.15Portugal 3.70X 3.00Ghana
dempsey is the only guy on the 100 player list, lol.... its unbelieveable after 2 games and 2 goals. Who will score the most goals in the tournament? (only scored goals, dead heat rules apply – others on request) 3.00Neymar (BRA) 4.75Thomas Muller (GER) 5.50Karim Benzema (FRA) 6.00Lionel Messi (ARG) 10.00Robin van Persie (NED) 10.00Arjen Robben (NED) 17.00Luis Suarez (URU) 34.00Enner Valencia (ECU) 41.00Sergio Aguero (ARG) 41.00Teofilo Gutierrez (COL) 41.00Fred (BRA) 41.00James Rodriguez (COL) 51.00Gonzalo Higuain (ARG) 51.00Mario Balotelli (ITA) 51.00Miroslav Klose (GER) 67.00Oribe Peralta (MEX) 67.00Wilfried Bony (CIV) 67.00Ciro Immobile (ITA) 67.00Edinson Cavani (URU) 67.00Olivier Giroud (FRA) 67.00Alexis Sanchez (CHI) 67.00Lukas Podolski (GER) 67.00Mario Gotze (GER) 67.00Clint Dempsey (USA) 67.00Oscar (BRA) 81.00Romelu Lukaku (BEL)
1/8ths= World Cup 2014 - Winner 9:00 PM Tournament winner 4.50Brazil 4.50Germany 5.75Argentina 8.00Netherlands 9.00France 21.00Belgium 21.00Colombia 29.00Chile 29.00Mexico 41.00Uruguay 51.00Costa Rica 67.00USA 81.00Switzerland 81.00Greece 201.00Nigeria 201.00Algeria
World Cup 2014 - Winner 9:00 PM last day of 1/8ths Tournament winner 4.25Brazil 4.25Germany 5.75Argentina 5.75Netherlands 9.00France 15.00Colombia 21.00Belgium 51.00Costa Rica 67.00USA 81.00Switzerland
World Cup 2014 - Winner 9:00 PM 1.53Netherlands 4.20X 6.00 Tournament winner 4.25Brazil 4.75Germany 5.50Netherlands 6.00Argentina 9.00France 13.00Belgium 13.00Colombia 51.00Costa Rica