http://espnfc.com/news/story/_/id/1740529/mls-catches-mlb-espn-sports-poll?cc=5901 "For the first time in the nation’s history, Major League Soccer (inaugural season: 1996) has caught up with Major League Baseball (founded in 1869) in a significant marker of popularity. Both leagues can claim 18 percent of 12- to 17-year-olds as avid fans of their sport, a poll said. The startling statistic comes from the 2013 Luker on Trends -- ESPN Sports Poll Annual Report -- the complex database that tracks the minutiae of fan habits surrounding 32 major sports, studying how Americans watch, play, buy and express their fandom. This is the very same poll that, in 2012, determined soccer was America's second-most popular sport for those aged 12-24, outstripping the NBA, MLB and college football. The finding is momentous, said Rich Luker, the social scientist and baseball lover who created the study, released on the eve of MLS’s 19th season..."
Interesting chart there, as there appears to be some cyclical growth patterns for MLS's popularity somewhat aligned with the 4-year World Cup cycles.
Personally I would ignore the specific number/ranking. Polling is relatively meaningless at this age. However, there is one important item to take out of this and that is just the general mind share improvement as evidenced by this comment below. I look at this as another small positive data point in a journey that still has a couple of decades ahead of it. ======================== "Given the positional challenge that plagued MLS in its first decade, Luker admits it would have been difficult to predict this milestone event five years ago. “It was not so long ago we used to do focus groups and raise MLS to the room and hear crickets in response,” he said. “Although a lot of American kids were playing in organized soccer environments, there was no connection between that game, which everyone plays to learn the basics, and MLS."
Given the time-frame of that context, I'd imagine that the DP initiative (and "player-marketability" focus) has played a significant part in that general mind share improvement for MLS.
Agreed. Interesting that the connection between the game all the little kids play and MLS has seemed to strengthen even as the marketing of MLS has evolved away from the minor league baseball model that was designed to capture those little kids. Or, who knows, maybe we're finally actually seeing the fruits of that model, with its emphasis on getting the 7-year old kids out to watch.
When did MLS players start to get onto the packaging of EA games? That might be more of a factor than anything, really, for that young demographic.
Never on the international covers but I think Adu was the first MLS player on a North American cover back for the Fifa 2006 version. http://www.sportskeeda.com/e-sports/ea-sports-fifa-covers-over-the-years/ Since then there has typically been an MLS player on the North American cover. Googling images I have seen Blanco, Sacha, Landon and a few others.
I think FIFA and Football Manager has had a great effect on that generation also the twenty somethings in becoming soccer fans. That chart was just mapping MLS but the number of soccer fans overall growth probably coincidences with FIFA's increased marketing of their game in America. When MLS becomes a Top-10 league they should send a thank you note to EA.
I think this is significant as a minor milestone. But this is a small niche market (12-17 year olds). We still have a ways to go, across a variety of markets until we can claim to catch up to some of the top sports.
No kidding. According to the graph, MLS has always been ranked higher than NHL, and it hasn't really meant anything for TV ratings. Or, I guess, those 12-17 year olds that ranked MLS higher in 2004 haven't crept into a demographic whose tastes can really drive broader market forces yet.
i think we are seeing kids reaching the polling age who's parents watch MLS. the trend will hopefully compound, and gives us an indication of just how much growth MLS may see in the next decade.
I'm sure MLS has done their own surveying and found similar numbers already. How do you think they pulled in the TV contract that they did with the numbers they currently have? They must have shown the TV companies that "Hey, this is going to turn around."
Here's the thing, though. I believe pretty strongly that the success or failure of the plan to be a great league in 2022 (or 2026 or whenever) is going to hinge on the LOCAL tv contracts, not the national contract. IOW, while this survey is good news, IMO it's alot more important to see the numbers for MLS markets.
Great news for MLS... but before we get all excited about MLS changing the sports landscape, let's just remember what our TV deals are worth and where MLB is: Phillies just signed a $5 BILLION TV deal
the 12-17 year olds that are now 22-27? That is, right in line with the growth shown in the study two years ago in the 12-24 group? Also, while maybe a group that is spending money, that group typically doesn't have a lot of money to burn. yet.
There are definitely surges associated with the World Cup years (02, 06,10); The only other major surges appear to be 2005 (Chivas USA and RSL?) and 2007 (Beckham bump). I initially thought the drops were two years after the WC, but I was mistaken - the drops occurred in 04 and 09. I can't imagine why they occurred. EDIT: Beyond, you know, sampling error.
http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/news/_/id/5363260/us-success-change-appeal-soccer Four years later you bet the tide is turning.
I agree with you about the local deals (and note this has significant implications for parity: the league that is most dependent on local TV deal revenue is baseball, where huge local deals produce financial behemoths like the Yankees). Best survey I know of to that point was the one from SBJ not too long ago: Or at least under 30. (The two are basically at a dead heat when they started measuring MLS in 2000.) Which would make them a distinct minority of the TV viewing audience. I also think, like superdave, that the national TV audience is the last domino to fall. Go get the local deals first. Right now, MLS tickets are pretty affordable for a lot of people, and MLS's demo (at least the adult part) has the social time to go to games. A lot of the people who are interested in MLS attend matches in person. If MLS is to acquire a large TV following, it will probably be in future generations, with help from older people who used to go to more games and are now either priced out or don't have the time and energy.
I'm never sure what to make of those numbers. I think the Seattle numbers reflect true fan support. For the LA numbers (and Texas and Bakersfield, etc) I suspect that much of it reflects Mexican fans who may be "somewhat interested" even though they don't actively support an MLS team. I'm sure the Chivas fans are all aware of Chivas USA even though they might not attend a game.
I think the interesting point that has been ignored from the chart is that MLS is quite a bit higher than the NHL and the gap is widening. MLS isn't going to get anywhere near MLB in revenue anytime soon (MLB revenues are closer to the NFL than the NBA is to MLB) but if MLS can get anywhere near the revenue numbers of the NHL and theoretically take over that "4th spot" in the hierarchy of sports in the US, then it would result is a very strong soccer league, on par with all but the top 3 or 4 leagues in Europe.
Performance of the nats is going to have a lot to say about it too. The nats are the chum in the water I think. If we make a real leap forward, then the league will explode.
That and frankly this doesn't surprise me. Having been 12 before, I wasn't into baseball then either. It was too slow for my then short attention span, and kids today are even more ADD in their views. It took becoming an adult for me to truly appreciate baseball and it's slower more nuanced and stat based play and it's leisure aspects as a spectator.