Well Joe it looks like you may be right regarding our likely year end target. Remember in this thread we discuss the: (AAQ = Attendance Analysis Quotient. This figure is an overall attendance assessment, calculated from the weighted values of average attendance, median attendance, <10K percentage and >20K percentage. A lower figure represents a better attendance performance.) This is a slight change from Andy's old formula which used simple ordinal values and provided a full ranking point separation for two numbers that may have been within a percentage. This ordinal system did not allow for fine differences to be seen, and may have painted a somewhat skewed view of the numbers (though to be honest there is not much difference in the two end of season sets). The formula to find the weighted value for each column is: Take the annual value and subtract it from the Max value for it's column. Then take that result and divide it by the (Max-Min) for its column. For example, for the average column 18801 is the max 13756 is the min 5045 is the difference To calculate the derived value for 2011 Subtract 17869 from 18801 to get 932. Divide 932 by 5045 then multiply by 100 to get 18 MLS Attendance is based on tickets distributed not tickets scanned. Therefore if a team sells or distributes X number of tickets, then X is the attendance for that match. Even if 0 people showed up for whatever reason, X would still be the official attendance. There are a number of reasons actual attendance may be lower or higher than the announced.
Last Week: Just your typical run of the mill ~19k attendance week for MLS. Home Team Attendance Kansas City 21304 DC United 12354 Philadelphia 18295 Colorado 16814 Houston 20009 San Jose 10525 Seattle 39360 Portland 20674 New England 11543 Total 170878 Average 18986 This Week: We have the return of Champions League group stages, and the USOC semis. League actions resumes with a full slate over the weekend. Including the following Toronto kicks things off Saturday afternoon hosting Seattle, Columbus is home to Red Bull NY while Vancouver welcomes San Jose, then off to Chesterdelphia where the Union and DCU are on the NBCSN GoTW. From there we visit Kansas City (Kansas) along with the Revs, and at the same time Chicago welcomes Montreal, thereafter we wrap up Saturday in Sandy, where RSL and Houston will meet-up. Sunday we head down to Frisco, Texas where FCD welcomes the Galaxy, and then it is off to Los Angeles where no one will watch Chivas and Colorado. Well okay there may be that 1 guy.
Season Stats: Remember in the count columns everything above the 15k cell is a subset of the 15k number, and likewise everything below the 10k is a subset of that. We are 210 matches in to 2013, or 65% of the season. Season Stats Totals …… Threshold Count Percent Played 210 …… >=50000 2 1.0% Total 3803114 …… >=30000 12 5.7% Average 18110 …… >=20000 63 30.0% Median 18119 …… >=15000 144 68.6% Maximum 53679 …… <10000 11 5.2% Minimum 6801 …… <7500 3 1.4% Deviation 7107 …… <5000 0 0.0%
AAQ Data: This season just makes me while I work. Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date 1996 17410 15093 21.9% 26.3% 28 51 62 31 171 6 9/22 1997 14606 12733 25.0% 16.3% 83 87 71 81 322 14 9/28 1998 14312 11871 26.6% 16.1% 89 100 76 82 347 15 9/27 1999 14282 12973 32.3% 15.1% 90 83 94 87 353 16 10/10 2000 13756 12690 34.4% 12.5% 100 87 100 100 387 17 9/9 2001 14961 13431 26.6% 17.7% 76 76 76 74 302 12 9/9 2002 15821 14108 17.1% 18.6% 59 66 47 70 241 8 9/22 2003 14900 13719 23.3% 18.0% 77 72 66 73 287 11 10/26 2004 15549 13223 24.7% 25.3% 64 79 70 36 250 9 10/17 2005 15112 12619 27.1% 17.7% 73 89 78 74 313 13 10/16 2006 15426 14113 19.3% 18.2% 67 66 54 72 258 10 10/15 2007 16767 15353 8.2% 29.7% 40 47 19 14 120 3 10/21 2008 16460 15188 11.0% 24.8% 46 49 28 39 162 5 10/26 2009 16037 14686 14.7% 20.9% 55 57 39 58 209 7 10/25 2010 16675 15332 7.5% 22.5% 42 47 17 50 156 4 10/16 2011 17869 17639 5.6% 28.1% 18 12 11 22 63 2 10/23 2012 18801 18393 1.9% 32.5% 0 0 0 0 0 1 10/28 Historical Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date 1996 19050 16256 20.2% 31.7% 0 33 56 0 89 3 7/31 1997 14930 12954 19.2% 14.4% 80 85 53 88 305 13 7/27 1998 14813 12013 22.4% 17.6% 82 100 63 72 316 15 7/29 1999 15016 13456 30.4% 18.4% 78 77 88 68 310 14 8/8 2000 13877 12891 34.4% 12.0% 100 86 100 100 386 18 7/12 2001 15194 13975 24.3% 17.5% 75 69 68 72 284 11 7/14 2002 16002 13521 19.8% 18.7% 59 76 54 66 256 9 7/24 2003 14418 13368 27.8% 15.5% 90 79 79 82 330 16 8/16 2004 15327 13174 28.9% 23.7% 72 82 83 41 277 10 8/11 2005 15107 12134 30.4% 16.8% 76 98 88 76 337 17 8/10 2006 15610 13016 23.2% 17.6% 66 84 65 72 287 12 8/12 2007 15855 14023 10.2% 23.6% 62 68 24 41 196 7 8/18 2008 16573 15324 11.0% 25.7% 48 48 27 30 153 5 8/16 2009 15420 14391 15.1% 18.5% 70 63 40 67 240 8 8/8 2010 16631 14434 8.3% 22.4% 47 62 18 47 174 6 8/21 2011 17398 16961 8.0% 24.6% 32 22 18 36 108 4 8/3 2012 18623 18379 2.4% 31.0% 8 0 0 4 12 1 8/4 2013 18110 18119 5.2% 30.0% 18 4 9 9 40 2 8/4 Current Average Median <10k >20k Avg Pts Med Pts <10k Pts >20k Pts AAAQ Pts AAAQ Rnk Date
Comparison To Last Season and All-Time: Up is up, down is down. Hmmm sounds like lyrics from a Don Henley song... Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- Chicago 11 13775 15563 15593 -11.5% -11.7% Chivas USA 10 8715 13127 15484 -33.6% -43.7% Colorado 13 15163 15119 14049 0.3% 7.9% Columbus 10 14756 15075 15184 -2.1% -2.8% DC United 12 13577 14022 16977 -3.2% -20.0% FC Dallas 11 15831 13722 12332 15.4% 28.4% Houston 11 19916 21136 17897 -5.8% 11.3% Los Angeles 10 21764 22483 22136 -3.2% -1.7% Montréal 11 20957 24472 22772 -14.4% -8.0% New England 11 13544 12922 15506 4.8% -12.7% Philadelphia 12 17544 18420 18491 -4.8% -5.1% Portland 10 20674 20438 19632 1.2% 5.3% Red Bull NY 11 18314 17539 17231 4.4% 6.3% Real Salt Lake 11 18837 18604 17132 1.3% 10.0% San Jose 12 13740 14464 12854 -5.0% 6.9% Seattle 10 40521 39537 37405 2.5% 8.3% Sporting KC 12 19842 19382 11905 2.4% 66.7% Toronto FC 11 19446 19089 19882 1.9% -2.2% Vancouver 11 19857 19384 19944 2.4% -0.4% Overall 210 18110 18623 16033 -2.8% 13.0% Team Played Current Last AllTime Average Last +/- AllTime +/- The second table is more focused on this particular match number for each team. Recent is the most recent home attendance, current is the current season average, average and median are the teams average and median for this game number, and finally running average is where each team would be on average through this point of the season. Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Chicago 17190 13775 19359 15789 15394 -11.2% 8.9% -10.5% Chivas USA 7851 8715 23365 12088 15073 -66.4% -35.1% -42.2% Colorado 16814 15163 13884 14503 14208 21.1% 15.9% 6.7% Columbus 19323 14756 15160 14109 14387 27.5% 37.0% 2.6% DC United 12354 13577 17641 14655 16859 -30.0% -15.7% -19.5% FC Dallas 16560 15831 11210 10132 12394 47.7% 63.4% 27.7% Houston 20009 19916 17739 18890 16782 12.8% 5.9% 18.7% Los Angeles 20093 21764 19771 20162 22423 1.6% -0.3% -2.9% Montréal 20527 20957 15615 15615 24472 31.5% 31.5% -14.4% New England 11543 13544 16941 13578 15153 -31.9% -15.0% -10.6% Philadelphia 18295 17544 17911 18441 18779 2.1% -0.8% -6.6% Portland 20674 20674 19533 19533 19533 5.8% 5.8% 5.8% Red Bull NY 18604 18314 16959 14742 17731 9.7% 26.2% 3.3% Real Salt Lake 19832 18837 15765 16675 16808 25.8% 18.9% 12.1% San Jose 10525 13740 11267 10525 12744 -6.6% 0.0% 7.8% Seattle 39360 40521 36002 36273 35736 9.3% 8.5% 13.4% Sporting KC 21304 19842 11632 9679 11518 83.1% 120.1% 72.3% Toronto FC 17987 19446 20384 20133 20029 -11.8% -10.7% -2.9% Vancouver 21000 19857 19413 19413 19982 8.2% 8.2% -0.6% Team Recent Current Average Median Running Average Average +/- Median +/- Running +/- Milestones: None. Team Centric Thread is Here
I know it's said almost every week, but it can't be said enough. Put San Jose in a 20,000 seat stadium. If the past two seasons are an indicator of anything, then as soon as that number goes up from 10k that's the last year IMHO that we see >20k averages.* *Assuming DCU gets their stadium quickly
SJ averaged 13,293 last year. They are moving into an 18k stadium Unless they continue to play a couple of games outside the new stadium, the change from 13k to 18k won't dramatically move the needle on the league wide attendance (about a 250 increase).
I have heard they may have at least one game outside but it would be a change on what typically happens when teams build a SSS. I am pretty sure most of not all of teams that built SSS, have never played a regular season game outside of that SSS they built. I believe this is due to the fact that more times than not, having to rent out the bigger stadium and then losing control of the game day revenue makes staying in the SSS more advantageous financially.
(16*18,000 + 50,000)/17= 19882 Ceteris paribus that gives us an average of 18574 If DC were to rise to 18,000 the average would be 18807 If in addition Chivas were to be 18,000( rebrand, new stadium yada yada) we would go to 19,295 ETA: Montreal and Toronto do it mainly for weather reasons, but in their case it also helps market the start of the season with big attendance numbers at a time when Hockey is king.
Those numbers assume all the other teams stay as they are right now. minor contributions from all teams(NYCFC, more full Seattle games, Vancouver capacity increase. incremental increases elsewhere, etc) can add up to 20k.
Also, for the sake of reference (including the over capacity by the usual suspects) the average capacity of the league is ~25,500
14,742 in Salt Lake for the open cup semi - a new US Open Cup semifinal record! I really hope they can sell out the final...
I don't have a number yet, but I heard 11k in attendance in Chicago for their semi against DC. Just for some comparison, teh Fire drew 8,151 for the FINAL against the Galaxy in 2006. 5,153 for the semi against DC that year. The Open Cup is moving in the right direction - if only it can get itself on TV somehow.
For some more context, in 1914 the attendance for the final was 10,000 at Coates Field in Rhode Island as Brooklyn Field Club defeated Brooklyn Celtic 2-1 There was also a competing cup that year. 15,000 showed up to Athletic Park in Newark, Nj to watch Bethlehem Steel beat Tacony FC 1-0.
Those Brooklyn Celtic fans were a rowdy bunch though.. wanting advancements in the work place and all that.
There is a 1000 person discrepancy for Vancouver which currently causes a 5 person shift in the seasonal average. I need to go back and re-examine all the numbers that are in the Vancouver game reports. The last time this was done it was MLS Pressbox (the most likely source of SAs) data that was wrong. I do not expect that to have changed. Not sure if MLS has been notified, not sure that there is anyone at MLS to notify.
Dur... So it turns out that number above is completely wrong. It's a sign of how little anyone's cares about such a hypothetical value that no one thought to give it a second look. I accidentally kept the full stadium values of BC place and RFK the real value is ~22154
Tweet from @SKCGameday: #SportingKC ranks 2nd in MLS for overall attendance this season, behind only Seattle. @SportingPark has sold out 28 straight MLS matches.
uh, so because they've played more home games than the teams averaging more than them they are trying to claim 2nd in attendance? SKC has lots to be proud of and happy about but making dubious claims based on a very temporary games played situation that will not be the case by season's end is really not necessary.