I have not done the work to find out (posting so you will), but it feels to me that only 5 years ago there were many more 1 goal games. Now, seeing champions league, USA vs. Germany today (7 goals) college soccer and even older youth I'm seeing lots more goals per game. Is it just because my keeper kid is being scored on more, or do you see it too?
No, I saw a research study in May that looked at coach tactics and the game has become more agressive in the past 10-15 years as whole. You're not crazy.
Sorry, should add this: If you're a coach 10 years ago and you know a lot of games end 1-0 or 1-1, then the best thing for you to do is to give up some of you defensive focus and get your forwards blasting the net in the hopes that they come out with 2 goals, which might get you a win. After a while, a lot of coaches figure you out and press forward because they know you're going to try and score as much as possible.
Thank you. I'd really like to see that research link. At the expense of keep's confidence, I think its a better way to play. Hopefully the W stat will override any other stat out there. I'm afraid it may not.
Granted, it's an economics paper, but it matched up pretty well. Here is his profile: http://www.trinity.edu/rsantos/ Here is a summary of the paper: http://www.trinity.edu/rsantos/Research/Soccer.html
OK - I am crazy - I like this stuff. Still wading through the data to find the simple stats, but stuff I get hung up on like this convinces me I'm nuts.: " e) according to your regression, should Lebron be happy with his salary? (ie, given his performance, should he be making more or less than he currently receives at the Heat?)"
Theoretically speaking, teams involved in higher scoring games will tend to do better. This is because of the point system, where draws are only worth 1/3 of a win (1 point as opposed to 3 points). Suppose a match has 2x goals (I'm using 2x instead of x to include the possibility of draws). Assuming each team has the same likelihood of scoring, the probability that the game finishes as a draw is C(2x,x)/2^2x. (C is the choose function, i.e. 2x choose x). I can provide an explanation of that probability if y'all like, it's not that complicated. Using the above probability, here are the probabilities of a draw for a match with 0, 2, 4, ... , 20 goals: 0 goals: 100% (obviously, lol) 2 goals: 50% 4 goals: 37.5 % 6 goals: 31.25% 8 goals: 27.34% 10 goals: 24.61% 12 goals: 22.56% 14 goals: 20.95% 16 goals: 19.64% 18 goals: 18.55% 20 goals: 17.62% The pattern is clear. The more goals in a game, the lower the chances are for a draw, meaning you have a higher percentage of winning. Even though you would end up losing more games by adopting an attacking mentality, you would also win more games, and over time end up with more points.
That assumes the teams are equal. It would be interesting to look at an entire season (such as 380 EPL games) and compare the expected number of draws based on that to the actual number of draws.
The probabilities Bonus_Game posted predict 99.8 draws for the 2012-2013 EPL season with there being 0 probability of a draw in a game with an odd number of goals. The actual number of draws was 108.
Yeah I'm aware that my probabilities are an oversimplification because it assumes that the teams are of equal quality, so the actual probability of a draw would surely be lower than the percentages above.
Here is the super simple - there will be no math version. -I pay $2 for a draw -I pay $3 for a win Pretty simple to see the average winning game pays more than the average draw - right Mexico? A team is better off to win one and lose one, than draw twice. I looked a bit more. EPL has about 1.5 goals per game. La Liga 2.8. Possession (if you agree the Spanish do that more) leads to more goals - for and against. In many leagues, inc. youth ECNL, teams are rewarded on points and college for seeding... Conclusion: push that defense up, score more and don't worry about those clean sheets - just win.
Are you talking about per game for one club or both clubs? La Liga doesn't have 2.8 goals for every 1.5 EPL goals.
If you are a betting man you will notice all leagues have a +-2.5 goals on average / game I don't think the goals are changing I think you are just focused on 2 particular heavy scoring clubs.
Year....CL....Eng...Esp...Ita...Ger...Fra..Avg 03/04 - 2,47 - 2,66 - 2,67 - 2,63 - 2,97 - 2,33 - 2,62 04/05 - 2,68 - 2,57 - 2,58 - 2,53 - 2,91 - 2,17 - 2,57 05/06 - 2,35 - 2,48 - 2,46 - 2,61 - 2,81 - 2,13 - 2,47 06/07 - 2,49 - 2,45 - 2,48 - 2,55 - 2,74 - 2,25 - 2,49 07/08 - 2,64 - 2,64 - 2,69 - 2,55 - 2,81 - 2,28 - 2,60 08/09 - 2,63 - 2,48 - 2,90 - 2,60 - 2,92 - 2,26 - 2,63 09/10 - 2,54 - 2,77 - 2,71 - 2,61 - 2,83 - 2,41 - 2,65 10/11 - 2,84 - 2,80 - 2,74 - 2,51 - 2,92 - 2,34 - 2,69 11/12 - 2,76 - 2,81 - 2,76 - 2,56 - 2,86 - 2,52 - 2,71 12/13 - 2,94 - 2,80 - 2,87 - 2,64 - 2,93 - 2,54 - 2,79 I was comparing UEFA Champions League and best 5 leagues in Europe in last 10 years. And average from these competitions says very clearly - yeah, more goals are being scored! Well, we can play with these numbers and find another conclusions. For example - it looks like Italy doesn't change anything. But, in first counted years, they have scored most goals (except all-time scoring Germany). Is coincidence that Italian clubs were best in CL those years? Since that, best clubs are from England and Spain. And, they both score most goals since that. Does it mean that if you want to play high in CL, you have to play offensively?
If you want to make Champions League conclusions, you should do goal averages for a league season only including games where one or both clubs were in the Champions League. That would be 140 out of 380 games for a league with 20 clubs and 4 of them in the Champions League.
You're right. But I think that main question was answered (at least at the top club scene) as since 2006, there were more goals every season in average.
Regardless of era, regardless of level, regardless of country, regardless of gender. Soccer scoring has been a constant 2-3 goals a game throughout history. I think the reason why ancient teams played with 5 forwards is because they rightly recognized that scoring is very difficult. But regardless even of formation, the average is always 2-3 goals. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FA_Cup_finals http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_Women's_Soccer_Championship
According to Chris Anderson and David Sally here on Slate, goals per game in the English First Division declined from 1890 till about 1950, but have plateaued at 2.6 for the last 60 years.
I bet that the same percentage of goals came off set pieces these past 60 years. Everyone always says "we have to get better at defending set pieces", but I think the only way to do that is to give up fewer set pieces. In other words, a certain percentage of corners are going to go in against you. It feels like about 1 in 20, but that is just a guess.