Thanks for figuring it out. It's nearly guaranteed to drop, by the way, since 19 would assume the lowest point total teams don't get a single point going forward apart from against each other.
Yes, we must win our home games, although there is a bit of room for error on at least one, but I think with Mexico you have to conservatively assume that 3 points are not a given. The thing is, it's always been that way. We just haven't lost a home game in over a decade and have only two draws in that time. Only one of which was in the hex and in a meaningless game; for us anyway.
A good coach builds his foundation upon a solid central defense and goalkeeper. Without that, it's a house of cards. We seem to have found a good CB pairing {Gonzalez, Besler}, and Guzan is fantastic. Next the coach builds a solid spine up the middle in central midfield {Bradley, Jones}. and attack {Dempsey AM, Altidore CF}. Next you add speed and mobility on the wings in defense {Beasley, Fabian Johnson} and in attack {Zusi/EJ, Gomez/Shea}. Be iron strong in the middle and fast on the wings. This is the recipe for success.
Exactly. The magic number is (almost 100%) "guaranteed to drop" below, and likely a good handful of points below, that 19 point level. And I just don't think there are going to be 2 clearly defined (and TBD) "lowest point total teams" across (and at the end of) the Hex. Everybody in the Hex is very likely to (continue to) take points off of everybody else.
If we win the next three games we virtually seal our qualification. All three games are among our easiest. Jamaica away, Panama and Honduras at home.
3 wins followed by 4 losses does not (even virtually) seal qualification (under a lot of scenarios, I would guess). 13 points will put the US in great shape at the end of June with 4 Hex games to play. And it will very likely give the US an opportunity to assure qualification in Sept. But even winning all 3 June games still leaves open the possibility (however small that might be) for the US to lose home vs Jamaica and lose at Panama in Oct. And certainly both Sept Hex matches for the US have the potential to deliver zero points.
**** HEX QUALIFICATION UPDATE 3.28.2013 ****After the third round of games this is my take on each team's chances (in order of most likely to qualify for the Hex):1) Mexico (Previously #1) - the seat is getting a bit warm south of the border. This is a horrendous start for a team whose expectations should be so much higher. Mexican fans will claim that they were on the short end of a penalty shout against the U.S. but the reality is this happens all the time. On Friday, Clint Dempsey was taken down in the box for a blatant penalty that wasn't called. What happened? The U.S. still scored a goal to win the game. On Tuesday, Mexico had plenty of chances to put the ball in the net but they flat out didn't do it. You can only change the things you have control over and the referee's whistle is not one of those. Mexico had no business drawing a U.S. squad missing as many first team players as they were. Mexico has some impressive young players with Aquino, Zavala, etc. but the more established big names aren't coming through - Chicharito & GdS. In my opinion, Mexico's best player (Vela) is dissing the national team for other reasons. If the team wasn't so talented there would be real reason to worry about El Tri missing the World Cup but in the end they'll be fine. ESPN's Power Index has them qualifying 87+% of the time despite a 0-3-0 start to the Hex.Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, Mexico stands at (-4 worst in the Hex).2) USA (Previously #3) - an example of when a draw is a win. The single point earned at Azteca shouldn't be necessary to qualify but what it meant to the team is so much more important. A B+ squad getting a result in a competitive match in Mexico City is unheard of. Consider that every player who played in this game had experience in or is currently playing in MLS. Am I the only one who finds it interesting that the U.S. put forth the effort with the most heart when fielding a team with no German among the starters or subs that played?The U.S. has completely turned around their qualification campaign in the span of 5 days. After the game against Honduras the Americans were (-3) when compared to the last cycle (win over Honduras in 2009, loss in 2013). They have since evened that up in two games (draw vs CR in '09, win in '13; loss at Mexico in '09; draw vs Mexico in '13). A win in Jamaica might not be the expectation but should be the goal. The Jamaicans will be coming off of a game against Mexico and will have only two days rest in between. The Reggae Boyz appear to be coming apart at the seams and with an expected loss to Mexico, will be ripe for the pickin'. The three game stretch in June will be a tremendous opportunity for the U.S. to gather points as well as integrate injured players back into the team. How much do you mess with a backline/GK that pitched a shutout in two games?What was more shocking...the draw at Mexico or the fact that NOBODY who was sitting on a yellow got another card in either game?Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, the U.S. stands at (-1...tied for best in the Hex).3) Costa Rica (Previously #4) - The Ticos picked up their first win in the Hex and it was no surprise that it happened in their first home game. CR picked up a valuable point at Panama in the first game and while it may seem like a minor deal it could be what separates CR from Panama when it comes to automatic qualification or playoff spots. To me, CR is separating itself as a very likely qualifier from CONCACAF. I don't see them slipping into the 5th or 6th spot. They have strikers who can put the ball in the net (unlike Mexico, ouch!) and have fairly decent quality across their lineup. A negative for Costa Rica is that they have yet to play Mexico and they've had a horrible time recently against El Tri (both home and away). If you figure they lose both those games then they really only have five games left to accumulate the necessary points. Three of those five would be at home where the Ticos are tough to beat. Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, Costa Rica stands at (-1...tied for best in the Hex).4) Panama (Previously #5) – a strong two game strectch for Panama as they pick up a point on the road and three more at home. On paper, I think this team looks like the worst in CONCACAF but in no way see them finishing in last place. They are an example of a team that is greater than then sum of their parts. They'll battle Honduras for the playoff spot. A negative for Panama is that they have yet to play Mexico and the U.S. and therefore have four of their final seven games against those two teams. They also only have one home game left against a team that isn't Mexico/US. Stealing points where they can will be key for their campaign.Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, Panama stands at (-2).5) Honduras (Previously #3) - a promising victory against the U.S. in the first game is slowly giving way to reality. The Catrachos are very good at home but not so much on the road. The defense has turned into a major problem (5 goals allowed in 3 games, two of which were at home). In their next four games, aside from a home game against Jamaica, Honduras plays at Costa Rica, at the U.S. and at Mexico...yikes! It might be nice to start the Hex with two home games but payback's a bitch! I see Honduras battling Panama for the 4th spot. Considering they just lost at Panama they've got a lot of work to do so that they don't fall out of the race between now and Sept. 9th (away to Mexico). Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, Honduras stands at (-3).6) Jamaica (Previously #5) – it's early in the Hex but I think we've found the dregs of the group. The Reggae Boyz made a mistake by bringing in the ringers from England. It's not working and they'd be better off going back to the guys that got them here.Nyron Nosworthy is out four months, which weakens the Jamaican D. This has been one of their strong points but we'll see how it is affected by his injury. Jamaica still can't score and they now go home to play Mexico and the U.S. in the span of four days. That's pretty rough and it's capped off with a trip to Honduras to finish the month of June. I wouldn't be suprised to see Jamaica sitting on anything more than four points through six games. That's not a recipe for qualification.Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, Jamaica stands at (-3).Random ThoughtsIt’s always good to keep things in perspective and look at the point totals that have put teams through in previous years:2010: IN: 20, 19 and 16.....PLAYOFF: 16.....OUT: 8 and 62006: IN: 22, 22 and 16.....PLAYOFF: 13...OUT: 11 and 22002: IN: 23, 17 and 17.....OUT: 14, 8 and 5One more draw in round three means that 56% of the matches in the Hex have ended in a draw. I'll continue to mention history in this thread because it relates to the number of points needed for auto-qualification or the playoff. Five draws in this Hex match the total from 2010, is one more than there was in 2006 and is one fewer than 2002.As closely matched these teams are I still wouldn't be surprised to see the final automatic qualifier (3rd place) get in with as low as 14-15 points. Additionally, I think 4th place (playoff vs New Zealand) may come in around 12-13 points. The team that finishes in last place will certainly have more than the 6, 2 and 5 points accumulated by the cellar dwellars of the past three Hexes. I'm thinking that 6th place will probably finish around 8-9 points.Using the expecations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game, no team is better than (-1) and no team is worse than (-4). That's very close given that we've now completed three rounds. No road wins through 9 games.I will further update after round 4 is played on June 7th (will include Jamaica/Mexico from June 4th).
Meh, are you suggesting that if Fabian or Jermaine were playing in that game, we maybe wouldn't have played as hard? Jones surely showed heart playing with a hole in his ankle in the snow. I still think at least these 2 Germans should and will be a big part of the hex.
And we only have one home loss in 28 years, that to one of the greatest road teams the hex has ever seen, in a game where we had serious injury issues.
Great post. Minor correction needed as Jamaica is only at -3 Using the expectations of 3 points for a home game and 1 point for a road game.
LOL. All games have the potential to deliver zero points. That's why you play them. Getting 13 points early would allow us to have a psychological edge. At that point, you only need a win or a couple of ties to get through and four games to do it in. At that point, it's what most people would call virtually.
I realize "easiest" is relative, and not the same as "easy", but talking this way makes me a bit uncomfortable; the US has lost away to Jamaica, and lost at home to both Panama and Honduras. Anything can, and eventually does, happen.
I'm looking at it from a point of view of making it a goal to get the 9 points and that 9 points in these three particular games are not out of the question.
flem16 Those guys you called German are also Americans. I think it is disgusting how all you guys keep insinuating these people on our USA NATIONAL TEAM are not AMERICAN. Is it some sort of xenophobia or something to imply they are less American than any other person who holds a US passport.
ImaPuppy.....LOL Sorry dude but those are the facts. You may think of it is a downer but it is actually a REALITY CHECK!!
Absolutely agree. Yes, most people would call it virtually, but not everyone would call it that. And I would hate for most people, or any people, to be wrong in their assessment/projection.
This. It's not like you ever look at the Hex and think, okay, we've got this, until you're about to qualify. That said, we'll in all likelihood continue to get the results we need as we have so far, even if we have a slip up or two.
These dagummed interwebz.... Operator malfunctions all the danged time... Probably best if I stay out of that thread anywho. Had to give you rep on that just for my stupidity.
All good man, this forum is for opinions. The Debbie Downer thing just felt really appropriate considering the thread.
A little hyperbole there? Go ask Timmy Chandler if he rather play for the U.S. or Germany...same with Danny Williams for Fabian Johnson. Those guys didn't grow up in the USA and I'd be willing to bet you they don't have the same passion when putting on the colors as a guy like CD, Goodson, Cameron, Edu. I think there is very little coincidence that we didn't see a "roll over and die" performance from this team when it was made up of players who've spent a lot of their life in this country. Chandler, F. Johnson, D. Williams...watch and see if they play this weekend. If so, that's more than enough to show me that if they really cared about playing for the U.S. they would've been here the last week. I'm not blaming the German-Americans but you can't fake the passion and love of a place if it's not a part of you. For those guys, it hasn't been.
Ok. Here's the summary of the data on the "most important match." Based on simulating all the remaining games in the Hex using ESPN SPI's: --The single match in which a win results in the most likely case for qualification -- Costa Rica away (although Panama away is essentially tied with this). --The single match in which a loss results in the least likely case for qualification -- Jamaica home. --The single match with the most spread in the probabilities of qualification between a win and a loss -- Honduras home. So pick your definition of important. I guess I will go with #3 and say that the home match against Honduras is the single "most important" remaining match. If you have some other concept of most important or whatever that you want me to check, let me know. I might have it.