No need to dodge thrown objects, you're correct to look at the data that way. It just shows that even during our "glory years" (2005-2007) we didn't surpass 50 by all that much. Do you think this year's team is that much better than those teams? I don't. It also doesn't change the fact that rkupp predicted 50+ points in 2008 and 2009 when we were playing fewer games.
they where 7 points better last year....I say they will double that to 14 points better this year so 49!! To me it all comes down to the back line, and Bengston. If he can rip off 15 plus, and the D can remain tight, then mid 50's and playoffs, if not, only slight improvement
The difference i see with this team compared to others is that i think bengston has the potential to be the best striker we have had since twellman
Eastern Confrence 2012- 1st place on 63 pts. 5th place on 53 pts Middle- 58 pts 2011- 1st place on 51 pts 5th place on 46 pts Middle- 48.5 pts • Notice the 10 pt gap in the median! • The revs will need to hit 46 pts for a chance at the playoffs • They will need 50-54 to be somewhat safe 45 pts is my best guess.
44pts. No playoffs. Heaps stays. No SSS news. No summer signing. Attendance down. Same as it ever was.
No summer signing or no signing that makes an impact? The former seems highly unlikely. I can't remember a season where we didn't sign at least one player over the summer.
46, with a 90% confidence interval of 40-51. Much rides on the Revs picking up a quality player who can run the offense and be intimidating enough on free kicks that defenders hesitate to hack our skill players. We need an El Pibe. Without this type of player, we will again be pressed hard, will struggle to find a rhythm and score, and will lose to thug teams.
Which to my thinking adds up to low 30s for points. Where are the goals going to come from? Bengtson? I'm not entirely sold on him yet.
It totally depends what formation we play. I read a blog yesterday that calculated in a 4-2-3-1, only 35% of goals come from a striker. If we don't have a striker that's finishing well, we can always switch to a formation that relies more on midfielders.
I can see us playing something like 4-2-3-1, but the question is who sits in the middle behind JB? I agree with Autogolazo that that is not Toja's best role.
I would hope Heaps already knows the answer to that question. Rowe? Fagundez? Caldwell? Nguyen? I would hope that during the preseason, Heaps tried a few different systems and figured out who works well where. Maybe they put Rowe in the middle and Toja on the right. Toja likes to migrate inwards, Rowe could overlap on his right. It seems like a viable system.
In no particular order: - Andrew Farrell will have a mostly-positive rookie season, but will also prove to be somewhat mistake prone. No worries - he'll work it out of his system eventually. - Kevin Alston will be a much better left back than he ever was on the right. - The Revs will concede more goals this year than last. Not sold at all on Goncalves, and AJ Soares has regressed. Reis is another year older, and Shuttleworth is shaky. - Juan Toja is traded mid-season. Makes a big salary, isn't a guaranteed starter, and doesn't really fit the system? I don't think he's long for Foxboro. - Only reason I can think of to start the year with this much cap space is that they've got a plan to add a returning USMNT player in addition to a DP. Beasley, Bedoya, Bocanegra, Onyewu, and Bornstein could all be in play. - I see a lot of teams crowding the middle of the field and daring the Revs to show them that they've got players capable of providing good service from the wings, as well as forwards who can do something with that service. In other words, we're going to struggle to score until such point as we force teams to play the entire width of the field. I love Nguyen and Rowe, but they're constantly looking for ways to cut inside - they're not true wide players. - I see Bengtson as having something of an uneven season. I think the Revs will ask him to play in a way he's not really suited to or comfortable with. He's talented, so I still see something like eight or nine goals, but not double digits with the team as currently constructed. - 9 wins, 13 losses, 12 draws - 39 points. Small step forward this year, setting up a big leap forward for 2014, hopefully.
48 points. Make a push for the 5th playoff spot. Farrell wins ROY Sene and Bengtson both make us pull our hair out from time to time with inconsistency, but both end up with 10-12 goals. Diego starts over Rowe by year's end Sign a DP that helps a little bit next year, but helps us turn into a legit playoff contender next year. I think we'll have incremental improvements into becoming a legit MLS team, ala DC since Ben Olsen showed up. Also, Benny finds his home feeding some of the best players in MLS, makes MLS Best XI. Cause why wouldn't he make us look bad.
Interesting post, particularly regarding the issue of width. It will make an enormous difference if Farrell and Alston can meaningfully overlap. If Heaps can't solve this, we've got problems - Bengtson gets lost in a crowd. If your thought about Revs bringing in a returning USMNT player as well as a DP were true, my outlook on life would improve. Who didn't think how much better we would be with Valeri? I have my doubts about both Goncalves and Cisse. Still, for the FO to be planning on bringing in Bocanegra or Onyewu would mean that they have either given up on Soares and McCarthy, or have given up on Goncalves, neither of which seems likely at this point. Similarly, bringing in Bornstein means benching Alston. Beasley and Nguyen seem unlikely to coexist on the field, and ditto for Bedoya and Rowe/Fagundez. If Bedoya could play centrally, that would make a ton of sense. Could Tony Taylor be pried away from Estoril Praia? Could Benji Joya be bought from Santos Laguna?
Basing your player acquisition and team building strategy on the idea that we will suck enough to get a returning allocation-worthy player to join us mid-season (regardless of position) is not a wise policy. That's what got us talented players who didn't fit, like Feilhaber, and some argue, Toja. Crazy idea that it may be, why not determine the kind of player you think would thrive in this environment and go out and get him, rather than waiting for external sources to give us a "good enough" player who might or might not work out here for a variety of reasons. At least we didn't get stuck with Adu in the allocation draft....
Bocanegra would have been a decent idea last year, but he's picked up a couple injuries since then and is now benchwarming on a sure-to-be-relegated Segunda Division team. Onyewu would be interesting - even with his health issues I think he'd be a dominant player in MLS. I would bench Alston for Bornstein in a split second, but we'd need to trade for his MLS rights to get him if he comes back. Beasley would never come here because of what happened to his brother and he's still playing well in Liga MX. Bedoya, like Clarence Goodson, is Just Some Guy who happens to get NT looks because he Plays In Europe.
North of 45 pts, south of 50. I'm not sure we can attain it, but am trying to keep a good attitude. I'm looking forward to seeing our new signings, and a few of the first year players. Oh yes, and can we please win a USOC match or two this year?
@PhilSchoen Cisse, Dorman, Goncalves and an emerging Fagundez with Bengtson and Nguyen etc, I think you're right Phil. #Revs— Arlo White (@arlowhite) March 6, 2013 https://twitter.com/arlowhite/status/309306674638909441
Somehow I ended up way more optimistic this year and came out with 53pts, 15W-8D-10L which clinches the last playoff spot in the east but we don't advance. Will also predict winning 1 Open Cup game.
whoops. waited too long -- thought I had until kick-off. i was gonna guess 47. really hard to know -- so much new and it looks like there's talent, but it comes down to whether the team has the heart and whether they can do the little things (finish; avoid brain cramps, defend set pieces). So far Heaps seems to have done what he needed to do -- shipped guys out, used a lot mechanisms to bring in new guys, tried to install a system of play and a culture of responsibility. But the jury is out on whether he has actually built a winner. I'm really curious to see how it plays out.
This. It's the same problem as a year ago. In fact we started off with a 3-1 win at the Champs in LA, so it's a bit of groundhog day. But thuggery trumps finesse and MLS teams know this. Will the revs learn their lesson or repeat the same mistakes as 2012 and fail to win a road game for the next 6 months? Getting the full 3 points on the road is a big x factor. The 2013 Revs will match up well against (perhaps ironically) the more skilled, finesse teams like LA, NYRB and SKC. Then we will get beaten to a pulp by the Houston's of the league who don't play soccer and just hack the crap out of you all game. Teams learned this pretty quickly and were able to marginalize our attack by fouling everyone. It's why Benny led the league last year in most fouled. We saw the start of it last night with the thuggery in Chicago, taking out Soares, Nguyen and Rowe. One of the key to success for the 2013 revs is, as you suggested, whether an El Pibe emerges. If Toja (or Rowe, even Dorman..) can be that man who sprays balls around the pitch supporting the attack and providing service then we will be in good shape. However, it's a matter of surviving the thuggery, which means Cisse/Simms is another key to success. They need to provide bite in the middle of the park to serve notice if teams target our skilled guys, there will be hell to pay. A major achilles heel is losing the creativity and sharp edge Toja brings in the attacking third. If the revs become predictable and don't really keep teams pinned back or fearful of our attack, it will be 2012 all over again.
I also forgot to put this in, on my own thread. But I was going to say 43 points, so I'm still at that. 12-15 -7.
I think this perception of the Revs being small and soft is a bit exaggerated. Last year they were that way due to personal issues. Some with the way the roster was built, and some with the way the team had to be deployed due to injuries. Cardenas and Guy won't be regulars this year. Benny is gone. Macca isn't a starting CB. So, they've replaced Macca with Gonzalves, Benny with Cisse and Toja is a much more physically astute player than Guy and Cardenas were. Also, Rowe and Diego are a year older and stronger, and their two rookies are physical specimens, especially Farrell. You also have to consider that Bengston, although not a bruising striker, is still a good strong forward who scores goals in traffic inside the 18. He only featured sporadically last year. Basically, I think this team has a much better ability to handle a physical game than they did a year ago AND they are more skilled. Sure, Nguyen may get pushed off the ball, and Diego too, but there likely won't be a situation where the Revs have 5-6 guys on the field who are being man handled like they did last year. Basically, we won't see this lineup at all: --------Sene-Cardenas/Diego--------- Nguyen----------------------------Guy -----------------Benny----------------- -----------------Simms----------------- Tierny-----Soares-----Macca-----Alston That's about as soft as soft could get in MLS. Thankfully we won't see it again.