Magic Number thread [R]

This thread should instead become about the run for the Supporters Shield - which I think is going to go down to the wire this year.

 

I don't think it hurts anything for the fans to count down to various milestones for the Quakes. After so many losing seasons, I find it an enjoyable way to savor the winning season. I certainly hope the team wins the Supporters' Shield, but that couldn't possibly happen before mid-October. In the mean time, I intend to relish the moment when a playoff spot in clinched, and then the moment when 4th place is clinched, then 3rd place, then 2nd place, and so on. It's just a way to swirl the sweet wine of victory around one's mouth before swallowing.

 

There are 31.4 billion combinations of results for the Quakes, Chivas and Vancouver. Only 1 combination of results gets the Quakes in a tiebreaker with both teams and none where the Quakes miss the playoffs outright.

Below are the magic numbers* for the supporter shield (and western conference champions for western conference teams)

KC 18
Sea 15
Chi 15
NY 14
Crew 13
SLC 11
Hou 10
DCU 9
gals 8
Van 2
Chivas 2
Mon 1

*If the number is 0 at the end of the season it goes to the tiebreaker

 

I understand your sentiment completely, but it comes off as "We've almost reached our goal of making the playoffs!" Goals need to change fluidly as the season progresses. For quite a while now, our goals have been set higher, our eyes are on the Shield!

 

Have observed some similarities between season 2012 and 2005, based on the weekly playoff ranking thread:

1. Since game #25, S.J. have amassed equal number of points with the same amount of games played in these 2 seasons:

S.J. '05:​

by Game #25: 13-4-8, 47 points​

by Game #26: 14-4-8, 50 points​

by Game #27: 15-4-8, 53 points​

​

S.J. '12:​

by Game #25: 14-6-5, 47 points​

by Game #26: 15-6-5, 50 points​

by Game #27: 16-6-5, 53 points​

Should the pace remains on track, S.J. could match / surpass the 64 points record set in 2005.​

2. As with 2005 (N.E.), a team from the East (K.C.) is now hot on the heels of S.J. with similar pace as well:

N.E. '05:​

by Game #25: 14-5-6, 48 points​

by Game #26: 15-5-6, 51 points​

by Game #27: 15-6-6, 51 points​

​

K.C. '12:​

by Game #25: 14-7-4, 46 points​

by Game #26: 14-7-5, 47 points​

by Game #27: 15-7-5, 50 points​

3. For quite a few weeks, the interim playoff match-ups in the West as remained as below:

Play-In: 4. L.A. vs. 5. Vancouver​

Conf-Semis: 1. S.J. vs. 4.L.A./Van; 2. Seattle vs. 3. RSL​

​

Should things remain as they are at the end of the regular season, and if L.A. manage to overcome Vancouver in play-in (having already swept the season series against them), we should be looking at a re-match of the 2005 conference semi final...​

 

If that playoff picture were to happen, I hope it goes better this time :\

In 2005 I remember completely dominating most everyone we played (perhaps my memory is poor). I don't remember dominating many teams this year (including our last two games where the score flattered us).

 

As I recall, the Quakes had difficulty with a very bad (perhaps historically so) expansion Chivas USA team in 2005. Of the four matches, the Quakes won a pair and tied a pair, including the first ever match between the clubs at home at Spartan Stadium, in which Chivas earned the draw with a goal in the dying moments. While one of the wins was by 3-0, the other was only 2-1 in HDC late in the year (the only time the Quakes have ever beaten Chivas USA on the road). And I recall that one being a nail-biter.

Yeah, the Quakes went undefeated against the team with the league's worst record that year, but I wouldn't call the overall performance "dominating."

 

I'm pumped every time we win!
FUMLS!!!

This is sweet, and I want to savor every minute of it. So, I have to agree with Druid Squirrel. I want to celebrate each and every milestone, and then tie those milestones to the feet of the galactopustules and throw them into the sea.

We'll clinch our playoff bearth before any other team, and we should do a big happy dance when we do.

GO QUAKES!!!

- Mark

 

So if KC were to pass us in the overall supporters shield race, would we still make concaf champions league, since KC won the open cup over Seattle?

 

That is a very good question - I believe the answer is yes, but I'd like to be corroborated.

 

If K.C. do win the SS, S.J. can secure a CCL spot if:

1. S.J. make the MLS Cup Final, regardless of its final position in the SS table.
2. S.J. finish 2nd overall in the SS table, and K.C. win the MLS Cup.
3. S.J. finish 3rd overall in the SS table, and K.C. also make the MLS Cup Final.
3. S.J. finish 4th overall in the SS table, and the 2nd & 3rd-placed teams in the SS table make the MLS Cup Final as well.

Any other possibilities not covered?

 

What does MLS Cup have to do with the SS berth? The SS winner earns a berth and the MLS Cup winner earns a berth. If th SS winner has already gotten in via winning the USOC, then the second place team would get it, no? And if KC won the MLS cup as well, it would be the runner up of that qualifying as well correct? Theoretically, we can have two teams who didn't win anything make it to CCL if KC wins it all.

 

1 spot goes to the USOC winner
1 spot for SS winner
2 spots for the participants in the MLS cup final.

 

Bingo, and if any team(s) occupy one or more of these spots, the team(s) that finished highest in the SS table will get them.

 

RSL is an example of this.

LA Galaxy won the 2011 MLS Cup and the 2011 SS and is now playing in the 2012-2013 CCL.
RSL also earned a 2012-2013 CCL berth because the team finished second in the 2011 SS race.

 

Actually, RSL earned the 2012-13 CCL berth as the 3rd-placed team; as the SS runners-up, Seattle, also won the USOC, hence an extra berth was freed-up.

 

Good catch.

Based on this, if SKC wins the 2012 SS and San Jose finishes second, the Quakes will be joining the 2012 USOC Champions SKC in the 2013-2104 CCL.

 

On the other hand, RSL were not so lucky for the 2011-2012 CCL: Despite finishing as SS runners-up to L.A. by just 3 points with an unbeaten home record and superior goal difference, they missed it out as the berths were awarded to the following teams:

• Los Angeles Galaxy (2010 MLS Supporters' Shield champion)
• Colorado Rapids (2010 MLS Cup champion)
• FC Dallas (2010 MLS Cup runner-up)
• Seattle Sounders FC (2010 U.S. Open Cup champion)

 

Correction: if K.C. do win the SS, S.J. can secure a CCL spot if:


1. S.J. finish 2nd overall in the SS table:

• 1 spot goes to the USOC winner - K.C.
• 1 spot for SS winner - K.C. (pass to SS runners-up, i.e. S.J.)
• 2 spots for the participants in the MLS cup final. - Whoever

2. S.J. finish 3rd overall in the SS table, and K.C. make the MLS Cup Final:

• 1 spot goes to the USOC winner - K.C. (pass to SS 3rd-place, i.e. S.J.)
• 1 spot for SS winner - K.C.
• 2 spots for the participants in the MLS cup final. - The other finalist & K.C. (passed to SS runners-up)

3. S.J. finish 4th overall in the SS table, and the 2nd & 3rd-placed teams in the SS table make the MLS Cup Final as well:

• 1 spot goes to the USOC winner - K.C. (pass to SS 4th-place, i.e. S.J.)
• 1 spot for SS winner - K.C.
• 2 spots for the participants in the MLS cup final. - Both finalists (i.e. SS runners-up & SS 3rd-place)

4. S.J. make the MLS Cup Final, regardless of its final position in the SS table:

• 1 spot goes to the USOC winner - K.C. (may pass to the next best team in the SS table.)
• 1 spot for SS winner - K.C.
• 2 spots for the participants in the MLS cup final - S.J. & the other finalist (may pass to the next best team in the SS table.)

 

Below are the magic numbers* for the supporter shield (and western conference champions for western conference teams) updated on 9/8 (before Seattle and Chivas)

KC 18
Sea 15
Chi 15
NY 14
Crew 10
Hou 10
DCU 9
SLC 8
gals 8
Van 2
Chivas 2
Mon 1

*If the number is 0 at the end of the season it goes to the tiebreaker

 

Well we've clinched the playoffs. So we can stop acting worried about that. We're also the earliest team to clinch in MLS history.

 

Good. Now let's get that shield!!