323 games this year to get to 6,000,000, that would be a 18,576 average Code: Week#1 8 games played 145,278 in total attendance for a 18,160 average. Games Left Attendance Average needed +/- 315 5,854,722 18,586 (-10) I know the Portland game is on Monday, but it's already a sellout of 20,323.
20323 is the presumed number. However according to some PDX posters there has been some slight reconfigs. No indication yet if 20323 will hold true. We will see tomorrow.
18,576 is possible, but looks just out of reach when you break it down in aggregate numbers. So, 17,872 last season; that's an extra 704 people per match that need to attend. Over the course of 323 games, that's 227,392 people. Montreal would also need to average at least what the MLS averaged last year in such a scenario. That 227,392 would mostly need to come from marquee games. With Montreal's opener expected to attract 50,000, you can more or less already knock that figure down by 32,000 odd (50k attendance of match minus last years average MLS attendance of 17,800) to 195,000. After that though, outside of Seattle opening up the stadium, it becomes difficult to see where you're going to find additionally large numbers to knock that 195k down in quick spurts. Other than that, you are relying on a handful of clubs to best their attendance last year by a few thousand, while everyone else remains the same. An unrealistic expectation. The one saving grace there is perhaps Houston. Lets assume, that over their 17 games, they sellout every match. That would knock off 68,000 in aggregate attendance, bringing it down to 130,000 odd. Still not enough, but getting mightily close. New SJ stadium will do wonders for that 6m target. At that point it should be a foregone conclusion.
the 6M total in the regular season seems like a slightly unrealistic target in 2012. (but looking at the total attendance for the regular season and the post-season, there very likely will be a 6,000,000th fan within 2012.) It would be cool if MLS came up with some give-away or prize for this honor (not that they'd accurately be able to single out this individual as they came through some stadium turnstile in Oct or Nov) -- but if they offered up a free "lifetime" season-ticket package or some such prize for "Fan #6 Million", that could be a neat little marketing item all season long (or later in the season/post-season).
Last year the league got 5,468,011 for the regular season, so we would need another 531,989 to get to the 6,000,000 mark. I think Montreal is going the great 5 great crowds in there first five games at the big "O". I think with those five that they will average just under 26,000 a game for the season (440,000 total attendance). Seattle increased there capacity to 39,000 and they will open up the whole stadium for the Portland and Vancouver games. I think with the two games against Portland and Vancouver plus there 39,000+ avearage for the other 15 games that Seattle will average 41,000+ a game (that's another 42,000). So the rest of the 17 teams would have to increase there total by 50,000 and we could make the 6,000,000 mark in 2012.
For some reason it eluded me that Montreal Olympic stadium will be used for the first 5 games. That does change the equation. If your Montreal figures turn out to be right, 6m is doable. Considering that they've already sold almost 50k for Chicago, and with TFC, Portland, NY, and LA to come, cracking 200,000 is probably a realistic estimate, however badly their season pans out. Houston can knock off the remaining 50k on their own (potentially), assuming the rest of the league stays more or less the same. If Houston averaged 22k for the season, they would increase their aggregate attendance by 68,000 on last year. So, even a few below capacity crowds will see them up their aggregate by 50,000. I'll recant my original post, 6m might not be as difficult as I thought.
Well Portland attendance was 20,438 not 20,323 (+115), I guess Portland's attendance is going to be 20,323+ rest of the way.
With standing room we can get over 19k. So it is possible to do better then last seasons attendance. Plus not every game last year was a sellout. We had a few near sellouts thrown in there.
323 games this year to get to 6,000,000, that would be a 18,576 average. Code: Week #1 8 games played 145,393 in total attendance for a 18,174 average. Week #2 9 games played 213,418 in total attendance for a 23,713 average. Games Left Attendance Average needed +/- 306 5,641,189 18,435 (+141)
Reaching 6 million, or at least 5.85 million total fans, would put MLS ahead of the Brazilian Serie A and the Dutch Eredivisie in terms of total fans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_attendance_figures_at_domestic_professional_sports_leagues The next leagues in are sights after that would be France (7.47 million), Argentina (7.85 million), and Mexico (7.91 million). I haven't done the math, but I don't think those are possible to reach, even with every team selling out every game.
Actually, I just did the math based on the max capacity of team's home stadiums. If every team sold out every game, the max we could get is 6.8 million total fans. Seems like France, Argentina, and Mexico are out of reach until we get more teams and/or bigger stadiums, not to mention more sellouts.
Do you think it's possible the way were going given there will be a slight slump in the middle of the season?
Seattle opening up the upper levels and expanding to what, 68,000, for three matches, with the addition of the new Houston stadium which will likely average about 20k/game, it could get tight. We'll see what happens.
Not to mention Montreal, if they can average 20K in their new stadium (plus the games at Olympic Stadium)
A rough idea of what it would take to hit the 6 million mark: Seattle: 40K+ Montreal 30K LA: 20K Portland: 20K Vancouver: 20K Houston: 20K Toronto: 20K NYRB: 20K Philiadelphia: 18K SJ Earthquakes: 11K These 10 teams attendance totals are easy to pick. They are looking at an average of 21.9K. if this is the case, the 9 teams who are harder to predict will have to average about 15K. Those teams- DC United FC Dallas SKC Chicago Columbus Colorado RSL NE Revs Chivas Very doable.
I think KC should be easy to predict aswell, and theyll most likely stay where they were last year near stadium capacity, particulary if they maintain their form.
323 games this year to get to 6,000,000 that would be an 18,576 average. Code: Week #1 8 games played 145,393 in total attendance for a 18,174 average. Week #2 9 games played 213,418 in total attendance for a 23,713 average. Week #3 9 games played 183,565 in total attendance for a 20,396 average. Week #4 9 games played 169,304 in total attendance for a 18,812 average Games Left Attendance Average needed +/- 288 5,288,320 18,362 (+214)
its a good thing were above the average right now cause this week is probably only going to average 16000ish
Home teams this week that will get good crowds are RSL (2), Montreal, Kansas City, and Portland. Real Salt Lake should be able to get 36,000 for there two games, Montreal is playing Toronto they should be able to get 40,000+, Kansas City is good for 17,000+ and Portland is going to get 20,438. I think we still get an average of 18,000+ this week. at RSL 16,000 at FC Dallas 11,000 at Montreal 40,000 at Columbus 13,000 at Kansas City 18,000 at San Jose 10,525 at DC United 15,000 at Real Salt Lake 20,000 at Portland 20,438 Average 18,218
I definitely respect your opinion firefan, but I will take the under on all of these except KC, San Jose (although taking the under carries no risk), and maybe, maybe Columbus.
I don't usually pipe in, but I think firefan is pretty close with his RSL estimates. Maybe a little high for Wednesday's match, but if so, not by much.
323 games this year to get to 6,000,000 fans, that would be a 18,576 average. Code: Week #1 8 games played 145,393 in total attendance for a 18,174 average. Week #2 9 games played 213,418 in total attendance for a 23,713 average. Week #3 9 games played 183,565 in total attendance for a 20,396 average. Week #4 9 games played 169,304 in total attendance for a 18,812 average. Week #5 9 games played 149,677 in total attendance for a 16,631 average. Games Left Attendance Average needed +/- 279 5,138,643 18,418 (+158)