I heard someone say this is basically the women's equivalent of the Gold Cup. Would it be fair to say it's maybe the fifth most important tournament in the women's game, after the WC, the Olympics, the Algarve, and WC qualifying? I'm relatively new to this side of the game, so I'm sure I'm missing things and will be politely told so by the ever-helpful, ever-courteous BS members. I've been happy with Pia's player selection during this tournament, but because the Costa Rica game was fairly intense I think it would make sense to rest Abby, Boxx, and Rampone for this one. And maybe even Solo.
my interest is mostly in pia's defensive line, and if they can preserve the 0 goals against throughout the tournament. i'd like to see: right-----------------------------------------------------------left ------------------------------solo--------------------------------- mitts---------sauerbrunn-------------------rampone-------o'hara ------------------------boxx--------------lloyd---------------------- o'reilly------------------------cheyney-----------------------arod --------------------------------------wambach--------------------- this is just what i want to see. it does not mean that i think o'hara is better than lepeilbet. lepeilbet may be a better defender, and pia would be right to keep her in for defensive purposes against a canadian attack that is better than any they have faced so far. it also does not mean that i think that sauerbrunn fits in better than buehler. i've seen the recent discussion re these two. imho, sauerbrunn is quicker and smoother on the ball, but buehler may play as a tandem better with rampone. it's up to the coach who sees them more than any of us. so i'm fine with buehler in there, even tho from my limited aquaintance with their game, i would insert becky. it's somehow nonsensical to me to suggest that pia would put in a player that would mess with her job. she wants to win. she's all about winning. if i see buehler in there today, i'll assume that she thinks that buehler is the better woman for the job. if i see sauerbrunn, i'll assume that she's better and that buehler is being phased out to the bench.
My understanding is that CONCACAF decided that the WWC '11 qualifying would be the Gold Cup equivalent. There use to be a separate women's gold cup (and a couple of times other teams like Brazil were invited) but that was a long-ish time ago.
i would guess that the game ends 3-1 or 4-1 for the yanks...mostly it comes down to player vs player, and there the us have the advantage in most cases...although the canadians don't have anything near the attacking power of the us, they seem to fair pretty well in that department. i think the canadians backline is the weakspot, they seem easy to rattle, and they keep the ball too long for comfort. it was pretty apparent in the mexican game. they often held the ball for too long, and were forced to play some stupid plays to get out of it. every team passes now and then to the keeper, but leblanc shouldn't have to be the only alternative to use, as she clearly was many times. you might see this if the canadians played barcelona, but this wasn't the case. i know that simply kicking away the ball and hope someone gets it isn't the optimal choice, but sometimes it's better then to play to the next player in the backline. saw that many opponents already new that the next player would get the ball, and they advanced early to put them under pressure... don't really know about the goalscorers for the us, but betting on sinclaire for canada is pretty safe i wager...
(wow that guy's hair has two shades of black -- stare at it cross-eyed and I think you can get a stereogram) I predict that USA will lose control of midfield, struggle in the back, and win on set pieces! ==== Seriously: Canada's 4-3-3 has been fairly fluid, with Sinclair roaming from deep center to goalline, and the wings going wherever. Each wingback (Sesselmann, Wilkinson) overlaps as needed. USA's 4-5-1 might force Canada to drop back into almost a 4-5-1 themselves to contest midfield. Canada's #15 Kelly Parker has been their O'Reilly, with dominating runs into the right corner all tournament long. She'll match up against, uh, #6 LePeilbet (or feast on #5 O'Hara). Sinclair is, of course, the best forward we'll have seen. (Mexico's Maribel Dominguez had that potential, but she's 32 and got almost no service.) O'Reilly will go at Sesselmann/Booth: unclear. In midfield, I give a moderate edge in ball skillz (trap, touch, pass) to Canada. If USA continues in vein, we'll clang 30+ possessions right to Canada's feet. Not clear whether this by itself will let Canada advance the ball reliably. In the semis, both CR and Mex had a 1-v-1 skill edge vs. USA and Canada respectively, but their lesser size/pace/fitness meant that they were almost no threat to dribble-drive and create anything. Canada's MF would simply make a parallel run for 10-15m with no separation, and Mexico's MF would stop, turn, and shield. Hence, both Mex/CR were forced to connect many 10-15m passes, and their MF receivers either weren't making runs, didn't stay moving, or couldn't create any separation, either. So CR/Mex stalled in midfield, and couldn't sustain game-long buildups. Both of them did pull together for brief stretches of each semi: CR dominated the rest of 1H vs USA, and Mexico zigzagged through Canada in spurts. That seems to be the current status of the gap in CONCACAF. From that, I project that neither of USA/CAN will win midfield by default (because we're equally fit and fast). USA's midfield will clang/spray balls away, Canada's midfield won't. Whose back line looks shakier? Both Solo and LeBlanc have looked bored/dominant/unflappable.
I'm not going to make player comparisons/evaluations. You guys have done that very well in the last couple of threads dealing with this tournament. However, I will start my comment on this thread where I left off on the last thread and that's that the venue and home field advantage for the Canadians may be an important factor. The Canadians have a chance to showcase their team in front of a huge home crowd. Although both teams have qualified for the Olympics, IMO this is a very important game for the Canadian team and the Canadian soccer federation. They will be defending their turf with passion. Not an inch will be given up without a fight. As I said on the US/Costa Rica thread the BC place is a closed dome that can get very loud. If the Canadian fans show up in force tonight and fill up the place, the US players will be playing under conditions they haven't played before and that includes in Mexico. They will face a huge pro Canadian, anti-US crowd that will be deafeningly loud. The fans will be on top of every play. When the US players foul one of the Canadians and especially Sinclair, they will hear boos and jeers like never before and if the Canadians score on Hope Solo the roof will come off the place. I got a taste of how loud it can get on Friday. Tonight it may get even louder. Can the US deal with this? We'll see.
Canadian need a W and good showing at the Olympics more than the US does. It's quite possibly the only way the Canadian governemnt will increase the budget for summer team sports. At least that was the statement after the WWC from thier governing body.
Lineup: Solo; Mitts, Rampone, Sauerbrunn, O'Hara, Rodriguez, Lloyd, Morgan, Rapinoe, Lindsey, Wambach
Philly.com's soccer blogger posted the starting USA 11 and has it as follows: Solo Mitts, Rampone, Sauerbrunn, O'Hara ARod, Morgan, Lindsey, Lloyd, Rapinoe Abby Not sure if flat 4-4-2 or the formation Pia's been using. If it's a 4-4-2, I assume Alex plays up top. So HAO, Cheney, Boxx, LP and Buehler sit, at least to start. Really interested in seeing Mitts and O'Hara outside tonight. Good test for them.
Morgan with the start. Maybe tonight's game will put to rest whether or not she can play a full 90. I believe she can. So it Mitts on the left in this line-up? O'Hara with her 2nd start on the right? True test for KO against two quality opponents in a row. I hope she can lock it down. Loved her in college, and just want to see her get on the field. Wherever on the field she gets a chance.
USA Line-up as a 4-2-3-1 (with Lindsey and Lloyd as the 2 DF's) [LINEUP-4-5-1]Wambach, Rodriguez, Morgan, Lindsey, Rapinoe, Lloyd, O'Hara, Rampone (c), Sauerbrunn, Mitts, Solo[/LINEUP-4-5-1] Which could easily morph into a 4-3-3. I assume Cheney and HAO are being saved as possible 2nd half tactical subs, who we could probably see come on as soon as half-time. Via Twitter:
wow! I like this change up!... very interested in the back line. OHARA, get ready for the big boys (meaning Sinclair, obvs) She will be tested! I like this, but I would have started Cheney instead of Lloyd... or maybe instead of Lindsey and had Lloyd sit back in dmid.
This line up really excites me. The center of the defense should be stronger with Sauerbrunn and Rampone in the back. I also like that Boxx is sitting and Lindsey will out there. The one drawback I see is not having HAO there. Heather has been razor sharp. If the Canadians fill BC Place, it could be more hostile than any of the WWC games in Germany this past summer. This is a huge test for the US. We'll see if pressure make the USWNT.
i hope the canadians can keep it close and that we have a thrilling game. if leroux comes on the pitch she is going to get it worse than solo from the crowd.
Happy with this lineup but I still don't get why Abby doesn't need rest? She looks exhausted by the 20th minute.
This is a good lineup for answering some questions. We have nothing to lose in this match, and this will be the toughest match of the tournament. I'm going to lave seeing what happens.
love the back line. it's what i was hoping for. not because it's the best, but because i really want to see mitts and especially o' hara tested. don't like cheyney not starting. it makes the team rudderless. none of the starting 11 in this list, can guide the team from that spot just behind the forward and just in front of the midfield. canada should learn from: england vs uswnt and costa rica vs uswnt. press the uswnt at the start of the game. especially because some regulars are not starting. don't give them time on the ball. it rattles them, and you just might get a goal that you can defend. i'll be watching intently.
Is there anything at stake tonight other than bragging rights? Seeding in the Olympic tournament maybe?