Countdown to elimination

Discussion in 'New England Revolution' started by NFLPatriot, Aug 17, 2011.

  1. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    #  Club                   Pts GP  W  L  T  GF GA GD
    W1 LA Galaxy              61  30  17 3  10 44 22  22
    W2 Seattle Sounders FC    54  30  15 6  9  49 32  17
    W3 Real Salt Lake         51  29  15 8  6  42 27  15
    E1 Houston Dynamo         42  31  10 9  12 39 39  0
    E2 Columbus Crew          41  30  11 11 8  35 38  -3
    E3 Sporting Kansas City   41  30  10 9  11 44 38  6
    ==========================
    7  FC Dallas              46  30  13 10 7  36 33  3
    8  Colorado Rapids        42  31  10 9  12 41 40  1
    9  Philadelphia Union     40  29  9  7  13 37 31  6
    10 New York Red Bulls     39  30  8  7  15 46 41  5
    ==========================
    11 D.C. United            38  28  9  8  11 43 41  2
    12 Portland Timbers       37  30  10 13 7  37 44  -7
    13 Chivas USA             35  31  8  12 11 39 38  1
    14 San Jose Earthquakes   31  30  6  11 13 32 39  -7
    15 Chicago Fire           30  28  5  8  15 33 37  -4
    16 Toronto FC             30  31  6  13 12 32 55  -23
    17 New England Revolution 27  29  5  12 12 32 46  -14
    18 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 22  29  4  15 10 29 49  -20
    
    as of 9/25/2011

    Portland didn't do us any favors, but NY's win drops the magic number by 2, down to 4.

    If we lose today, a draw by NY next Saturday eliminates us.
     
  2. LongDuckDong

    LongDuckDong Member+

    Jan 26, 2011
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    So looking at the upcoming matches, we could be officially eliminated 9/29 when Philadelphia hosts DC or more likely 10/1 when Toronto hosts NYRB.
     
  3. Pinowski AP

    Pinowski AP Member

    Jun 25, 2009
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  4. NFLPatriot

    NFLPatriot Member+

    Jun 25, 2002
    Foxboro, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Code:
    #  Club                   Pts GP  W  L  T  GF GA GD
    W1 LA Galaxy              61  30  17 3  10 44 22  22
    W2 Seattle Sounders FC    54  30  15 6  9  49 32  17
    W3 Real Salt Lake         51  29  15 8  6  42 27  15
    E1 Houston Dynamo         42  31  10 9  12 39 39  0
    E2 Columbus Crew          41  30  11 11 8  35 38  -3
    E3 Sporting Kansas City   41  30  10 9  11 44 38  6
    ==========================
    7  FC Dallas              46  30  13 10 7  36 33  3
    8  Colorado Rapids        42  31  10 9  12 41 40  1
    9  Philadelphia Union     40  29  9  7  13 37 31  6
    10 New York Red Bulls     39  30  8  7  15 46 41  5
    ==========================
    11 D.C. United            38  28  9  8  11 43 41  2
    12 Portland Timbers       37  30  10 13 7  37 44  -7
    13 Chivas USA             35  31  8  12 11 39 38  1
    14 Chicago Fire           33  29  6  8  15 36 39  -3
    15 San Jose Earthquakes   31  30  6  11 13 32 39  -7
    16 Toronto FC             30  31  6  13 12 32 55  -23
    17 New England Revolution 27  30  5  13 12 34 49  -15
    18 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 22  29  4  15 10 29 49  -20
    
    as of 9/26/2011

    With the loss to CHI, magic number is down to 1.

    The Revs need to go 4-0-0, have NY go 0-4-0 and DC go 0-5-1, just to have a chance with the tie-breakers.

    The fat lady is singing, time to focus on catching Vancouver.

    Hey, at least we scored more goals in 30 games than last year. Woo hoo! ;)
     
  5. O'Dubhghaill Rules!

    May 21, 2001
    Boston, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Unfortunately, Montreal will have the #1 pick as an expansion team, so even if we're the worst team in the league this year we still won't end up with it.
     
  6. LongDuckDong

    LongDuckDong Member+

    Jan 26, 2011
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That site is incorrect. There is one scenario where we can make the playoffs.

    NFLPat hit it on the head:

    It's going to be tough to catch Vancouver. They have some winnable games, but so do we. We're really going to have to choke hard. It's time for us to channel our inner "fail." I'm predicting this for the end of the season:

    LA
    Seattle
    RSL

    FCD
    Phili
    NYRB
    DC

    KC
    Houston
    Crapids
    ------------
    Cbus
    Portland
    Chicago
    Chivas
    SJ Smurfs
    Toronto
    NE
    Vancouver (tied for points with Revs, but we win the head2head :mad:)
     
  7. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    We've got these 4 games left:

    Seattle at home
    San Jose at home
    Columbus at home
    Toronto away

    Realistically, Toronto looks like a good shot at 3 points since they are roughly as bad as we are. If it were home, I'd like our chances, but since we don't play well on the road, I'd give it a draw at best.

    Seattle and Columbus are pretty good teams and I don't realistically see us beating either of them. San Jose is still fighting for a playoff spot and will be hungry. Plus, we don't play very well at home.

    I can see us taking 3 or 4 points at best from the 12 possible points up for grabs.
     
  8. LongDuckDong

    LongDuckDong Member+

    Jan 26, 2011
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Agreed. We're really going to need some luck on our side in this one. Hopefully Nicol has a lapse of reason and puts Boggs or Phelan out there. That should give us our best chance.

    I agree Seattle will destroy us and San Jose will win out of desperation. I'm a little more worried about the Cbus fixture. They've been dreadful recently, and it's going to be extremely tough. Hopefully some of their inconsistent players hit a good run of form and shred our inexperienced defense.
     
  9. 7spencer7

    7spencer7 Member

    Mar 25, 2008
    Outside Boston
    Club:
    Colorado Rapids
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Explain this to me then. The minimum points required to get into the wild card slot as of right now is 39. That can't go down, it will be 39 at the minimum. The maximum points the revs can get is 39. New York is currently on 39. They beat us on head to head. That is the tie breaker right there.

    EDIT:
    Never mind, I see it. if games go that way then all 3 teams will be on 39 and the mini-head-to-head table will shake out like so:

    NE 6
    NY 5
    DC 4
     
  10. The Magpie

    The Magpie Member

    Nov 19, 1998
    Cambridge, MA
    The very fact that we're still (mathematically) able to makeup shows just how ridiculously absurd the MLS post-season qualifying process is.
     
  11. RevsLiverpool

    RevsLiverpool Member+

    Nov 12, 2005
    Boston
    Club:
    Liverpool FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Amen!!

    Mediocre League Soccer, I really wish they simply said "win the league" like virtually all of the top-flight leagues do and were done with it. Maybe it would put some pressure on clubs like the Revs to put effort in the entire year, rather than extending pre-season until after the season ticket holder campaign kicks off because they can.
     
  12. frankieg73

    frankieg73 Member

    New England Revolution
    Portugal
    Apr 8, 2001
    St. Petersburg, FL (not my choice)
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    Portugal
    Couldn't agree more. Whatever team qualifies as #10 seed is the team I am cheering for.

    These next few weeks are shaping up to be exactly what MLS wanted: "exciting" finishes down to the wire to keep fans interested and consuming the product. Two problems:
    1. The playoffs are being watered down by including way too many undeserving teams, not that the league cares, and
    2. The league is made up teams that either draw or don't draw regardless of on-field performance, so these 'down-to-the-wire' fights for playoff positions don't sell any more tickets. SEA, POR, VAN, TOR seem like they'll always bring the fans. People buy tickets for LAG to see the stars and to KC to see the stadium. Nobody goes to Revs or Dallas or Chivas games no matter how good or bad the team or the stadium is.

    So who do these extra playoff places benefit?
     
  13. LongDuckDong

    LongDuckDong Member+

    Jan 26, 2011
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well if playoffs and competition for playoff spots don't increase attendance, maybe we should just play exhibitions all year. Screw crowning a league champion.
     
  14. revolution1776

    Jul 23, 2009
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The owners of the last 2 teams who make the playoffs will benefit from it.
    They will be able to sell tickets, parking and concessions etc. it's all gravy for them. Too bad it waters down the reg. season which is bad for the fans.:mad:
     
  15. wildthing2022000

    Oct 24, 2005
    Douglas, MA
    It's actually since wins are 3 points.
    NE 7 - 6 (2-0) vs. DC, 1 (0-1-1) vs. NY
    GD = (+1) +2 vs. DC, -1 vs. NY
    NY 7 - 4 (1-0-1) vs. NE, 3 (1-1) vs. DC
    GD = (+4 ) +3 vs. DC, +1 vs. NE
    DC 3 - 0 (0-2) vs. NE, 3 (1-1) vs. NY
    GD = (-5) -2 vs. NE, -3 vs. NY

    http://www.settingthetable.info/home/index.php/2011/06/09/tiebreaker-update-june-9/

    The first tiebreaker in a three-way tie is also head-to-head, but it is determined via points-per-game versus the other two teams. If two teams are tied in points-per-game head-to-head, the next tie breaker is goal difference.

    Revs and Red Bulls make it through the 1st then Red Bulls wins on GD. So that means since the Red Bulls have 39 then NE is eliminated since any scenario eliminates the Revs.
     
  16. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    I think it's overall goal difference that serves as the second tiebreak, but NYRB is +5 and the Revs are -15, so the Revs are effectively eliminated.
     
  17. LongDuckDong

    LongDuckDong Member+

    Jan 26, 2011
    Club:
    FC Schalke 04
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Unless the Revs score 15 goals in their last 5 games and NY concede 5 goals. Then the Revs go through. :p
     
  18. goussoccer

    goussoccer Member+

    May 23, 2001
    Avon, CT
    Fixed your post - to be precise for a calculation that will never have to be made!! :D

    (Note the specific numbers aren't as important as that they add up to 21....)
     
  19. ToMhIlL

    ToMhIlL Member+

    Feb 18, 1999
    Boxborough, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I agree in principle, but who are we kidding. All North American leagues have playoffs. If we are going to have them, I was OK with it being 8 of 18, which is actually a better ratio than the NHL and NBA.
    It is all gravy if they are teams who break even or make money. So that means everyone else but us, where the gate and concession revenue for a playoff game will not offset the game day expenses, even if the players and coaches are essentially playing for "free."

    Off the top of my head, maybe Chivas also might lose money and DC, because of the high rent and littel concession money they get, might be in a similar situation, but everyone else should be happy with a home playoff game.
     
  20. jass

    jass Member

    Oct 12, 2006
    Club:
    Parana Curitiba
    Nat'l Team:
    Mexico
    Attendance numbers should be interesting.
     
  21. NE till i die

    NE till i die Member+

    Jun 26, 2010
    Stoughton, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't a DC win tonight officially eliminate us since that would put them at 40 points.
     
  22. Achowat

    Achowat Member+

    Mar 21, 2011
    Revere, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    You're absolutely correct. We need DC to lose every game except 1 draw and NY to lose every game, coupled with us winning every game, to get into the playoffs.

    It's elimination day, boys! Or maybe we can put it off until Saturday
     
  23. MM66

    MM66 Member+

    Mar 9, 2009
    Brookline, MA
    Club:
    Real Madrid
    Are you suggesting that fans might not show up to see what has been a dull team for most of the season that now has nothing to play for?

    FWIW, they are offering discounted seats to youth soccer organizations in an effort to get someone to show up.
     
  24. neophilus

    neophilus Member

    Nov 19, 2007
    Methuen, MA
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Only playoffs and springtime games have bad attendance. The Rev Girls will be bringing in college kids to drink and play video games on the party deck so that will boost attendance I'm sure.
     
  25. Crooked

    Crooked Member+

    May 1, 2005
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    College Night won't bump attendance nearly that much. It's usually the selling of highly discounted tickets to youth soccer organizations that does the trick in September and October. I'm looking forward to getting my kicks with some soccer smiles for the rest of the season...

    EDIT: After re-reading your post I'm guessing a strong whiff of some sarcasm. I missed that the first time around...
     

Share This Page