Except that not very many people picked New England & DCU very high last year and plenty expect a drop off for Houston, while a lot of people expected more of Toronto and New York. I think posters in these prediction threads are a bit smarter, especially considering their accuracy last year.
Well, I'm not an Earthquakes fan but I picked them 4th and making the playoffs. I'd say Ryan Johnson is a rising star and Arturo Alvarez continues to improve and impress. They stablized their team 2/3 of the way through last season and kept most of the same parts, and picked up Opara who supposedly has been impressive in the pre-season. I think their forward combo of Johnson, Glen and Eduardo could be fairly impressive by MLS' standards and they may have just enough to sneak into the playoffs.
People were consistently picking the quakes to make the playoffs last year. Not just quake fans, but many other fans as well. So while there may be value in the wisdom of crowds, its not nescessarily the best bet. So what happened in 2009? A combination of the unforseeable (Hernandez and Huckerby being hampered by injury), the overlooked (the effect of the loss of Grabavoy, Lima, and O'Brien on midfield play), just and the disappointing (Convey and Corrales). Now, why should this year be different and why is it only quake fans that are believing it to be? Well, I think its the same story that caused high predictions in 2009, a marked improvement in the second half of the season. It was a much lower key one though as there was less focus on the Earthquakes in the non-expansion year, and the improvement was less gaudy. The 2009 second half was overdramatic, as the team played many more home games in the second half, and generated a more impressive record. So people noticed the improvement in 2009 when the roster changes were made, but the roster changes that allowed the team to finish 4-4-5 in 2010 were not noticed. Why then would 2010 be different then 2009? Why wont they fall flat on their faces again? I think San Jose has done a much better job of keeping its core at the end of the year and into the next season. The team has also done a much better job of off-season preparation. So, to answer your question in a simpler manner, I think the difference is that fans outside of San Jose look at the off-season, look back on a 7-14-9 team, and think they didnt make enough changes. Fans who follow San Jose look at the changes they made during the season last year and the already tangible positive results that were yielded from them, and look at the offseason changes in light of those.
I don't know about consistently, but I remember the big prediction thread last year had very clear patterns: West - Houston, Chivas, Dallas, LA/Seattle; East - Columbus, Chicago, Toronto, New York. I think picking 5 out of 8 playoff squads is pretty good. Oh I can understand it. As an outside fan with no real close connection to any team, I see a club that was healthier during a part of the season when most teams were banged up and/or had schedule congestion. After all this debating, I now have another reason to think that San Jose won't make the playoffs: so you guys don't throw this back in my face. Anything can happen in this league, so I would just say that San Jose has the lowest probability of making the playoffs than anyone else.
East 1) *Columbus 2) *Toronto 3) *Chicago 4) New York 5) DC United 6) New England 7) Kansas City 8) Philadelphia West 1) *Seattle Sounders 2) *Real Salt Lake 3) *Los Angeles Galaxy 4) *Houston Dynamo 5) *Colorado Rapids 6) FC Dallas 7) San Jose Earthquakes 8) CD Chivas USA * denotes playoff team. MLS Cup: Seattle over Columbus
good list just take in 2 factors the red bulls are looking to get van den bergh back and marvell wynne is traded for labrocca and a 3rd round pick supposedly
I have no idea where Toronto is going to get the goals to make 2nd in the east. They were bad offensively last year, and have lost talent this year. De Rosario is a wonderful player, but hes literally about he only real threat they have.
Since I also put Toronto at #2 in the East, I'm thinking it's not the higher goals, but lower goals against that will help Toronto go up in the standings. They had 37 goals last year, but allowed 46. If they are able to cut that number down to the mid to lower 30's they should be able to go up in the standings.
East: 1. Columbus 2. Chicago 3. RBNY 4. DC 5. New England 6. Kansas City 7. Toronto 8. Philadelphia West: 1. Seattle 2. LA 3. Houston 4. RSL 5. Chivas 6. Colorado 7. FC Dallas 8. San Jose
East 1) *New York 2) *Columbus 3) *Chicago 4) *Toronto 5) Kansas City 6) DC United 7)New England 8) Philadelphia West 1) *Los Angeles Galaxy 2) *Seattle Sounders 3) *Houston Dynamo 4) *San Jose Earthquakes 5) Real Salt Lake 6) FC Dallas 7) CD Chivas USA 8) Colorado Rapids * Playoffs MLS Cup: Los Angeles over New York
The thing is, they only returned 67% of their goalscoring, and just 54% of their assisting. And they didn't add any significant attacking players. The big loss is the creative play of Guevara though. They don't have any replacement for that on their roster. I mean, really, other then DeRosario is there anyone on their roster that even would phase you as an opposing coach?
That ranking is more due to the teams in front of them getting worse. But still, given the history of Preki and Johnston I'm sure the roster will look very different by the end of the year.
From Ives' Power Rankings: WEST 1. Real Salt Lake 2. Los Angeles Galaxy 3. Seattle Sounders FC 4. Houston Dynamo 5. Colorado Rapids 6. Chivas USA 7. FC Dallas 8. San Jose Earthquakes EAST 1. Columbus Crew 2. Chicago Fire 3. DC United 4. New England Revolution 5. Kansas City Wizards 6. New York Red Bulls 7. Toronto FC 8. Philadelphia Union
I would put toronto one spot lower in the 8th seed. dead last, with the way things are going right now. We barely have enough players for a full roster this season.
Standings based on points (a team picked to finish 1st gets 1 point, 5th = 5, 8th = 8, etc.) from everyone's posts: WEST Chicago Fire - 47. Unanimously in the top 3 and almost unanimously in the top 2. Columbus Crew - 58. Only 2 picked them outside the top 2. Toronto FC - 109. A ton of 3's and 4's. New York Red Bulls - 119. Just not picked much at 6 or lower. DC United - 137. Philadelphia Union - 144. A few 3's and 4's really stuck out from a ton of 8's. New England Revolution - 148. Kansas City Wizards - 163. I doubt that people still think they'll finish so low. EAST Seattle Sounders - 39. It wasn't even close. They were picked 1st more than every other team in the west combined. Los Angeles Galaxy - 70. Real Salt Lake - 90. Houston Dynamo - 102. FC Dallas - 127. Chivas USA - 145. Colorado Rapids - 165. San Jose Earthquakes - 192. 17 8's and 5 7's out of 27.
KC got off to a great start in 2008 too... http://www.settingthetable.info/kc2008.html They'll finish higher than that and i'd move shitcago lower since they cut busch.
This is me eating crow. San Jose made some moves to improve their team during the season, but they were good all year long. Wondo became that guy, Convey had a renaissance, Busch softened the blow of Cannon's injury, and Geo has made that attack even more dangerous. Congrats Quakes fans.
if by close you mean REALLY ********ING FAR OFF, than ya, i'd say you won this time. lol at pre-season predictions for MLS standings. might as well draw them out of a hat. im glad you brought this thread back up from the depths, it made for a very good afternoon laugh. some particular things i have enjoyed reading: first and foremost, everyone's fear and subsequent punishment of RSL (standings wise) for not having enough strikers (which turned out entirely wrong as they lead the league in goals scored) and having schedule congestion (which i saw as a problem as well, but then in reality turned out to be completely wrong again). everyone's love of the sounders and praise for the depth, which almost certainly would allow them to be number 1 in the west and handle the extra load of CCL just fine. well, they flamed out of CCL hard, but are playing well enough to finish 4th in the west. the opposites that have become dallas and houston, dallas has stepped up as a very good team, young and dangerous. meanwhile houston has whimpered to one of the worst teams in MLS. definite change in the texas guard. the utter lack of faith in kansas city which turned in a decent season to finish 3rd in the east. which in the end isnt saying anything because the east is complete garbage and third place in the east isnt even close to being good enough to make the playoffs. poor poor DC United, not much else you can say. props to san jose for being a decent team, definitely worthy of being in the playoffs. the slobberfest over shitcago, which turned in a poor season and flamed out in the poor east. good ol MLS.
BUT i was dead on with my observation here. boo ya. even though luis gil has been exactly what every 16 year old in this league should be, a project who doesnt get much time with the first team. good thing the reserve league comes back next year.