If this happens, my prediction is that 50% of this board is still pissed off that the attack was weak this season.
EJ, Osei, Badilla and Castro all had fairly high level of experience and were older when they got here. I would venture to guess that the ACC is a higher level than the league Niouky played in. Alston, Barnes and now Zach were all thrown in the deep end out of need because the Revs either lack talent in those positions or injuries prevented a vet from playing. Mansally and Nyassi were eased in to the game and brought along slowly. My feeling it Niouky falls somewhere in between these groups of players. I hope that he earns a starting position. I hope he turns out to be a very good player. The fact that he played better and better in the preseason is encouraging. However I would not be surprised if Phelan gets the nod until Niouky gets accustomed to MLS play
It's hard to predict where any team will fall in the league table because there's going to be a flurry of activity in the wake of the CBA. I suspect the summer transfer window also will be busy. Some big moves are coming. Hopefully the Revs will be one the teams making them.
Any team with Shalrie has a chance at making the playoffs, and the defence isn't bad. However, take last year's offensively-challenged club and subtract Steve Ralston and we may be watching a historically-impotent MLS attack. I envision lots of 0-0 and 1-0 matches this season, and Nicol's strategy sessions should be really short: "Pass it to Shalrie. If you can't get it to him, kick it as far as you can downfield." Optimistic: Low end of the playoff picture. Pessimistic: Really high draft picks next year.
I don't see how they get to 45 points this year to be honest.. I said between 30-39.. but I almost went low. We have so many unknowns and weakspots... :/
This may sound odd, but one thing that makes me more optimistic is how bad some of the other teams look. Red Cows will be much better, but won't be better than we are. DCU will be worse. C-bus should be tough so long as GBS plays, but aren't unbeatable or anything like it. Philly never got their own Beckham/Lundberg - they'll be OK, but not strong. Toronto? KC? Who's afraid of Toronto and KC? The West should be more of a challenge, but SJ is still weak, Rapids are mediocre, Houston has lost Holden and Clark after losing DeRo the year before - They are starting the Attleboro Kid at center mid - Dallas looks better, but hasn't done anything yet - RSL still looks strong, but will slump after winning it all, Chivas will be OK, but can they defend? - And LAG won't have his majesty, and will lose the prince in the summer transfer window. Seattle still looks good, but don't seem to travel well. In short, I get our deficiencies, but I don't see any other teams eating us alive.
IMO, a lot of teams didn't make the moves they usually would have this year because of the impending CBA. So there was outflow without the usual amount of inflow of talent. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot more activity in the summer transfer window this year.
I think the flaw in looking at it that way is that it makes it seem like Mansally = Mansally, Nyassi = Nyassi, etc. Man for man: Dube 3/09 - Dube 3/10 => edge Dube 3/10 Thompson 3/09 - Schilawski 3/10 Mansally 3/09 - Mansally 3/10 => edge Mansally 3/10 Joseph 3/09 - Joseph 3/10 => even Larentowicz 3/09 - Niouky 3/10 => edge JL 3/09 (but, moving to even IMO) Nyassi 3/09 - Nyassi 3/10 => edge Nyassi 3/10 Tierney 3/09 - Gibbs 3/10 => edge Gibbs 3/10 -- or -- Tierney 3/09 - Tierney 3/10 => edge Tierney 3/10 Barnes 3/09 - Barnes 3/10 => edge Barnes 3/10 -- or -- Barnes 3/09 - Osei 3/10 => edge Osei 3/10 Heaps 3/09 - Osei 3/10 => edge Osei 3/10 -- or -- Heaps 3/09 - Gibbs 3/10 => edge Gibbs 3/10 Alston 3/09 - Alston 3/10 => edge Alston 3/10 -- or -- Alston 3/09 - Tierney or Sinovic 3/10 => Alston 3/09 Reis 3/09 - Burpo 3/10 => Reis 3/09 I see only one position where it's clearly a win for '09 (Reis > Burpo) and another where it's pretty much unknown (JL > Niouky) - plus a third if Alston can't go. Yes, I compare Mansally at forward ('09) to Mansally at mid ('10) and Thompson at mid ('09) to Schilawski at fwd ('10), but ... ... it's easy to see that Mansally ('10) is much better, especially considering he seems more natural at mid. ... I'd go with Schilawski over Thompson at anything except maybe fishin' (or bird calls!).
So you're thinking EVERY single player is going to get better over last year? Even though that never happens on any team. And you're saying the Niouky is evening up with JL, even though you haven't seen him play yet? I know people get frustrated by the negativity on these boards, but that post seems like just blind faith to me.
You beat me to it. Not sure how Niouky after 3 preseason games against inferior teams and a guy you have never seen play is closing the gap on Jeff Larentowicz. Also how someone say that every 10 addition is better than the 09 version. Have we actually seen Mansally play this year? Barnes? Alston? Hell the first year addition of Wells Thompson was the best one yet, by RKupp's reasoning, he should be an all-star by now after 3 years in the league. And how is SJ 09 and SJ 10 even, when everyone else gets better?
Young players who got their first significant playing time stand to make the biggest jump in their careers the next year. These guys are making gains physically, mentally and confidence-wise. Every year in the past when we've had significant injuries to veteran players and younger guys got thrown into the fire, they've reaped the benefit the next year. I threw the Niouky *opinion* in as pure speculation - but you'll notice I scored that one for '09. Yes, Thompson was one of the real head-scratchers, a guy < 25, relatively healthy, with some skill who managed to regress. There are actually very few who fit into that category. Some may not improve enough, but very few actually get *worse* unless it's because of injury. I'll stand by my opinion that returning players < 25, who got some decent playing time in '09 will be better than they were the previous season. Why do I know that Mansally in 3/10 will be better than Mansally in 3/09 for instance? Start with the fact that Mansally of 7/09 was better, Mansally of 10/09 was better, ... Barnes got better over the course of the year, Alston improved tremendously over the season, Nyassi got better, Dube showed some improvement, Phelan was significantly improved over the year before, Colaluca got better, ... SJ is pretty much at his peak. He might have a better season than last year or he might not. Most likely, if the players around him improve, he'll do better to.
I'm sorry Bob, but to me this is overly simplistic. But, I do like that type of reasoning, these guys are all going to be All-Stars next year!
So I'm late with this. Put me down for 43 points, 12W-7D-10L, probably squeak into the playoffs and then crash right back out. First round exit from the USOC. Still seems optimisitc, I wouldn't be surprised to see worse. I just don't see where our offense comes from, at best we have stood still. I thought our defense looked worse than the stats would imply last year so I expect a few more goals to slip through Burpo or post injury Reis....
or they could fall into the dreaded Sophmore slump I actually think Barnes started off great and then faded and made more mistakes as the year progress. I think you will find alot of people here that will argue Nyassi and Mansally have made little or no progrsession last year. Phelan looked the same as the year before, Slow reading and slow reacting. Can you really say Colaluca got better? I mean honestly he played enough over the course of the year that you can honestly say he got better? you're good
Last year we allowed more shots than any other team in the league. We'll need better defense from our wingers and better possession to improve the defense accordingly. Will Perovic & Niouky do that more than Ralston & Ginger? Tough call. We also scored a franchise low in goals. I think that number could potentially go up, if only because there is better depth in attack (if still lacking top quality talent). I'm guessing 11 wins, 10 losses, 9 ties. 42 points. 37 GF, 37 GA. Marginally better than last year, maybe enough to get into the playoffs (depending on how well the other teams put it together) but I don't think we'll win anything.
we don't have a double digit goal scorer on this team unless Dube has a big season, zack turns out to be ROTY quality, twellmen has a miracle recovery or Petrovic being signed (and actually doing something). I suppose if we can get 2 guys scoring sabout 8 or so and a few others contributing close to that we'll be ok. But that simply cannot be exected. It's an unknown. We don't know how JN will fit in, how much Janny can contribute. If nyassi and mansally can contribute more (they should, but they also should have last year and didn't). I look at this team and see Barnes, Alston and Shalrie and EVERYTHING else is a bit of an unknown as to what we will get Who knows if Gibbs will be healthy? etc etc etc. What will Burpo do? How will the coaching staff changes affect us? This is an almost completely new team from of mid 90s heyday. I'm hopeful, but I just don't see anything solid enough to make me think we'll be much improved. I think we will be better. But it's a heart and head thing. I'd like to think we can hit 45 points. I think the potential is there, but somethings that haven't fallen into place (ie; dube scoring at least 10, NYassi and Msansally contributing more) need to happen. We need production from some unknowns. I can't logically say we'll be a 45+ or even a 40 point team because there is no evidence that we will be that much improved. Again, hope we will be but it too big of a leap of faith for me to make a prediction like that. That's not negativity, that's just a realistic.
Now, now - I just said they'd be "better". I don't think my view is without basis. If you go back during Nicol's term here and look at all the younger guys who got early playing time because of injury, USNT callups, etc. - you'll see that almost all of them progressed pretty significantly the following year. Even guys like Gary Flood went from nothing to serviceable. James Riley, Dempsey, Noonan, Larentowicz, Dube, ... there are plenty of examples. I think early and extensive playing time is one of the most important factors as to whether a young player makes it in MLS as significant contributor. They could, but other than Thompson who was a "special case" (in many ways!), who has dropped off under SN their second year? I agree, but I attribute that to 1) him getting isolated more often, 2) fatigue and 3) a season's worth of knocks. Do you really think he wasn't a much better player at the end of the season than he was on opening day? Yes, I agree that a lot of people think that - and I think that's the impression one gets from watching them from game to game, it's very hard to discern the progress. If one were to look at a tape from last year or their rookie year, I think the progress would be pretty evident. For example, one of the criticisms of Nyassi has been his crossing. In '08, he was getting virtually no decent crosses. In '09, he wasn't consistent, but did have a fair number of good crosses - and he got better at it over the course of the season. Phelan will never be fast, but he was lighter and quicker last year. He was also more confident on the field and, even though there were some, there were fewer blown coverages (considering his increased playing time). Colaluco virtually never played until coming here. He at least found a role and got some minutes. That's significant progress to me - even if there's a long way yet to go.
OK, I've waited till the last few hours before the season starts to put my prediction in. I am worried about the injury season for the second straight season. I'm worried that there are no better players in the world than Smith and Tierney. I think our depth will be tested again this year, but for a change ... we actually have some. But overall, I think our starting lineup is the weakest it's been in years. There's already a lot of expectations for Schilawski, it'll be interesting to see how he does. I still think with Nicol coaching, this team winds up right around where they were last year ... 11-9-10. That'll probably be good enough to get them into the playoffs. They'll bow out early though, just like they will for the USOC. They'll drop out of the SuperLiga in the semis as well. I missed the poll closing ... oh well, still have my prediction in. Now Revs, prove me wrong.