Pot 1 (seeds): South Africa, Germany, Brazil, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, & Netherlands. Pot 2 (Asia, Oceania & CONCACAF): Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, New Zealand, USA, Mexico, & Honduras. Pot 3 (Africa & South America): Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria, Paraguay, Chile, & Uruguay. Pot 4 (Europe): France, Portugal, Slovenia, Switzerland, Greece, Serbia, Denmark, & Slovakia.
They used the FIFA rankings from october. France (last runner up) in Pot2 is a little bit of a surprise to me.
Actually USA's pot is #2, and the Euro pot is #4. Given these pots, the worst case scenario: Brazil USA Uruguay France and the best case scenario: South Africa USA Paraguay Slovakia http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/organi...ising+committee+approves+final+draw+procedure
I got it from Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2009/dec/02/england-world-cup-seedings Pots are the same teams, but pot #s are different. Not sure why.
The masochist in me wants the U.S. drawn with England, France, and Ivory Coast. Games against England and France would be *huge*, even for non-soccer fans. Then you'd also have a rivalry thing with England/France and France/Ivory Coast (France used to run the place, don'tcha know). Plus, it seems like every Englishman who's not a Chelsea fan hates Didier Drogba, so you've got that going for you, too. I dunno, I like a challenge, and I'd rather go out this way than playing Slovakia and Uruguay.
The seeding "procedure" is a joke. If they had used the current (Nov) rankings, Portugal and France would be seeded, England and Argentina not.
So would I, but the draw procedures do not allow it. Algeria and South Africa are from the same confederation.
Really? So how will they insure that an African team from Pot 3 doesn't end up in South Africa's group?
Pretty easy. If an African team is the first drawn from pot 3, then that team will be assigned to group B, instead of A (South Africa's group).
Check out what The Guardian has to say: The decision on how the seedings and pot grouping work means that the seeded teams would most fear being drawn into a group which included the United States from pot two, Ivory Coast from pot three and France from pot four.http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/feedarticle/8837091
The chances of the USA drawing RSA are slim (1 in 8). Any other team from pot 1 would be favored over the USA. Therefore, I would consider a good draw for the USA any one for which they would be the second best team in the group (i.e., for which they would be favored over the teams from pots 3 and 4 drawn into their group). Based purely on past results, I calculate 5 teams from pots 3 and 4 who would be favored over the USA on a neutral field: FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB. Realistically speaking, if the USA can avoid those 5 teams, then I will consider the USA to have gotten a good draw.
I've posted my analysis/preview of the draw. Here's what I think: Our goals should be in this order: 1. Draw South Africa. 2. Avoid France/Portugal. 3. Draw Slovakia/Slovenia. Possible Outcomes: 3.1% - Dream draw - South Africa, ???, Slovakia/Slovenia 6.2% - Very good - South Africa, ???, Denmark/Greece/Serbia/Switzerland 21.9% - Good - Other seeded team, ???, Slovakia/Slovenia 3.1% - Decent - South Africa, ???, France/Portugal 43.8% - Average - Other seeded team, ???, Denmark/Greece/Serbia/Switzerland 21.9% - Nightmare - Other seeded team, ???, France/Portugal
1. France is the highest ranked and considered the best team in the European pot 4. 2. There is some talk that they were punished and not given a seed bc of Henry's hand ball against Ireland. It hurt France that they did not perform better in their group play. 3. The United States is considered the toughest team in pot 2. 4. The easiest group will be South Africa's. 24 teams, including the USA, are hoping to be put in it. 5. I would suggest Argentina, Italy and Spain, along with South Africa have the greatest chance of the seeded teams not to advance. Argentina and Italy are down a bit, Argentina has numerous concerns. Spain, I am just going to say it, has a history of choking in the WC. South Africa is by far the weakest of the seeded teams and one of the weakest in the tourney. 6. At this point, the groups of death would be considered to be the ones with France or the United States.
Unfortunately, 5 of them have no chance since they're also from Africa. You mean 19 teams. Any group with France or Portugal and without South Africa will be called a group of death.
This is debatable. My most recent calculations based on past results rate the USA the fourth strongest team in pot 2, behind Australia, Mexico, and Japan, although the strength differences among these 4 teams are quite small. From the perspective of teams from other than pot 2, you would hope like hell to draw PRK or NZL, the 2 weakest teams in the tournament, but would gladly settle for HON or KOR instead.
Yes, entirely correct on both points. And I certainly agree this is entirely debatable. I actually think that the USA's athletic ability and work rate make them a tough matchup as opposed to the other teams you suggest. Without possibly Davies and Gooch our advantages would be diminished in these areas.
I'd say given our luck, we will probably get a group that is tougher than average but not mathematically the worst possible. I say we get stuck with: Germany USA Nigeria Denmark Actually, looking at the groups, I don't fear anyone in Pot 4 aside from France and Portugal. None of the other European teams would be easy matchups for sure, but I'll roll the dice against any of them. Pot 3 has more variation IMO. The difference between drawing Algeria and Paraguay is enormous in my opinion. Assuming we don't get stuck with France/Portugal (75% chance) and assuming we don't get put in with SA (87.5% chance), our most likely group is: Seed USA Average Euro side Pot 2 The Seed is important. If we draw Brazil/Argentina, we cannot draw Paraguay, Uruguay, or Chile. So the question really becomes, do we want a CONMEBOL seed and a CAF Pot 2? Or a UEFA seed and a CONMEBOL/CAF Pot 2. If I am honest, on a neutral field, I'd take a CONMEBOL seed and roll the dice with CAF, but with the WC in Africa, I think the UEFA squads aren't going to be their dominant selves, and the Africans are going to be pumped. So I'd like to avoid Brazil/Argentina (75% chance), France/Portugal (75% chance) So we have a 56% chance to have none of those 4 teams in our group. We do that, and I think we have a shot at the 4-6 points we will need to advance. UEFA/SA USA CONMEBOL/CAF UEFA (not France/Portugal) Probably the best we can realistically hope for statistically speaking.
basically, but not definitely. It still depends on which teams come out of pots 2 & 3 for that group. An example of (a non-host seed), North Korea, Algeria, Portugal/France I do not think would be considered a group of death. Although, from a USA perspective, if we replaced North Korea in that example, then yes it could/would be labeled as a group of death. Such is the station of a team that had a 2-goal lead in the final of the FCC earlier this year.
Before 2008 it was "Spain has a history of choking". Now it's qualified as "the WC". This Spain cannot be compared to fluke Euro champs Denmark and/or Greece. Remember, the last time Spain "choked" in the WC they were literally robbed in South Korea. Competent refs put Spain in the semis with a damn good shot at getting to the title game. The last team the US should want to face is Spain b/c they will definitely want to avenge their loss last summer.
I would suggest a simpler way to categorize the draw outcomes: 1. Nirvana - USA is favored to win the group - happens if USA draws RSA and avoids FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB. (probability = 2.4%) 2. Good - USA is favored to finish 2nd in the group - happens if USA draws RSA and one of FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB, or does not draw RSA, but avoids FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB. (probability = 47.4%) 3. Bad - USA is favored to finish 3rd in the group - happens if USA draws RSA and two of FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB, or does not draw RSA, but draws one of FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB. (probability = 41.7%) 4. Disaster - USA is favored to finish last in the group - happens if USA does not draw RSA, and does draw 2 of FRA, POR, URU, CIV, and SRB. (probability = 8.5%)
Some good points particularly about the 2002 match at South Korea. I am sure competent refs even might be distracted in the face of 60k nationalistic homers. Regardless, Spain has suffered more humiliation and heartbreak than any team probably in the history of the WC. http://www.worldcupcorner.com/2008/01/spainworldcup