why the feck would you want Guevara? he is tempermental, lazy, whiny, expensive, and inconsistent. that doesn't strike me as a Peter Nowak player. for trade bait, nobody in the league wants to touch a player like that anyway. the fact that he was Cummins' best friend at an underacheiving TFC should tell you something.
I have been doing these expansion mock drafts since the RSL and Chivas draft so it is finally good to be doing one for the home team. Philly will likely follow the pattern of other teams – a few pricey veterans coupled with younger depth players to leave plenty of cap room to sign its more skilled players (i.e. strikers, attacking midfielder). Big things to consider when drafting include age, salary, injury proneness as well as recent on-field performance. I name the top 3 prospects in order as I see them being potentially picked from each team, some overall comments about the team’s unprotected players and then provide two Top 10 lists at the end. Player Info and Position-Related Abbreviations: (Age – Base Salary $000 – 2009 Stats – Games – Goals – Assists) (4-4-2: G – LB/CB/CB/RB – LM/DM/AM/RM – F/F) (3-5-2: G – LB/CB/RB – LM/DM/AM/DM/RM – F/F) Here is the team-by-team rundown: CHICAGO 1. Michael Banner – D/M (25 - $34 – 22-2-3) – speedy, cheap young outside player – played a lot as a LB or LM 2. Peter Lowry – M (24 - $20 – 9-3-0) – another young cheap depth-type player – more of an AM – productive in limited playing time 3. Calen Carr – F (27 - $58 – 10-0-0) – speedy forward still looking to regain form after long-term injury and not likely to be taken but pickings are slim Overall – 50%/50% chance of no player picked since there are numerous starters (Blanco, Rolfe, Segares) planning to plan outside of MLS next year which weakens the available player pool. Banner seems like the obvious choice if a Fire player gets picked. CHIVAS 1. Shavar Thomas – D (28 - $105 – 17–0–0) big Jamaican CB has been a MLS starter much of his career 2. Carey Talley – D (33 - $128 – 27-0-1) veteran CB, captain material 3. Eduardo Lillingston – F (32 - $96 – 25-8-2) Mexican had a decent first year with the Goats, reasonably priced goal scorer – never know if he might be a flight risk back to Mexico if he is not a cold weather fan Overall – lots of possible veteran players here but none which jump out as obvious choices – none the less, it would seem like a decent chance that a Goat heads to Philly. Saragosa could be an option at DM due to lack of MLS-starting caliber ones in this draft and Nowak’s penchant for 3-5-2. Mayen could be a young midfield sleeper pick. There are also local favorites (Conway, Curtin) and pricey, typically older vets (Victorine, Razov, Trujillo, Marsch, Jazic, Stepanovic) but there is better Goat value to be had. This pick is still wide open in terms of who it might be. COLUMBUS 1. Jason Garey – F (25 - $53 – 15-4-2) Ex-Maryland Terp is generally productive in limited minutes for the Crew. Would make a decent #3 forward, especially given age and salary). 2. Alejandro Moreno – F (30 - $132 – 22-4-1) Venezuelan international with a green card saw a drop in goals (9 to 4) which may be a caution sign for picking him – he is hardly fleet of feet but is one of the most fouled players in MLS 3. Andy Iro – D (25 - $45 - 11-1-0) Big English CB from UCSB has been unable to get a starting spot with the Crew despite the revolving door next to Chad Marshall in defense the past few years. Overall – Pricey (both $150), older outside backs (Hejduk, Padula) could provide some leadership in the back – Hejduk has Nowak’s desired work rate despite his age (35) but he seemed to have dropped in form as of late from the Crew games that I saw. Renteria could be a sleeper at forward but Garey seems like the best value pick here. COLORADO 1. Jordan Harvey – D (25 - $50 – 30-0-3) Regular LB for the Rapids this year – a bit of a surprise that he is available given his age and salary. 2. Mehdi Ballouchy – M (26 - $100 – 28-2-7) Moroccan AM from Santa Clara University has never had the impact to match his hype coming in the league and he plays a position typically occupied by pricey talent from foreign leagues 3. Scott Palguta – D (27 - $55 – 23-0-0) Former veteran of USL is a versatile defender who could provide cover across the backline Overall – Harvey is a good value pick here. Dalby is another young, cheap option as a DM. Peterson is coming off a long-term injury – he is young but pricey ($100) as a LM/F option. DALLAS 1. Blake Wagner – D (21 – $51 – 15-0-0) Former Gen Adidas LB – picking for upside here. 2. Anthony Wallace – D/M (20 - $75 – 7-0-0) Same as Blake Wagner 3. Andre Rocha – M (25 - $140 – 22-2-1) I have mostly seen him as a RM – seem to have some decent offensive skills Overall – Dallas player availability is limited by the high number of Gen Adidas players who are exempt from the draft. Richetti could be a veteran option at DM in a draft lacking them but he is not cheap ($145). Van Den Bergh is not much of an option based on his age (33), high salary ($210) and more importantly his Dallas connections (he wanted out of New York to be in Dallas due wife’s ties there – can not see him moving back east). Sala (35 - $140) is the starting goalie but there are better expansion pick options out there with similar ages and salaries. Burse would be a decent back-up goalie if Philly went for a non-bonafide #1 veteran goalie (i.e. trade for Seitz, draft Conway or Saunders). It is a coin flip if a Dallas player gets picked. DC UNITED 1. Devon McTavish – D/M (25 - $50 – 11-0-0) Did not have a great year for DCU but is a real utility player able to play outside mid, outside back, center back and DM. He is young, cheap, versatile and Nowak coached him and has spoken well of him. 2. Andrew Jacobson – M (24 - $34 – 17-0-0) A promising DM with some offensive abilities – he generally showed well in his debut season with DCU. 3. Christian Gomez – M (35 - $255 – 27-6-4) The catalyst for Nowak’s MLS Cup playoff run in 2004 is not a 90 minute player, does not play much defense but can still be a playmaker and scorer. His age and salary work against him in terms of him being the Union’s potential AM. Overall – Not many other options here – Emilio’s salary excludes him from Philly’s budget, Wicks could have been a cheap goalie option but he is facing long months of multiple injury rehab. Either McTavish or Jacobson seems to be the likely pick. HOUSTON 1. Mike Chabala – D/M (25 - $34 – 15-0-3) Versatile left-sided player provides best value on Dynamo 2. Eddie Robinson – D (31 - $138 – 1-0-0) Rugged CB missed almost the entire season due to injury - coupled with high salary it makes him a high risk but potentially high reward pick 3. Abe Thompson – F (27 - $60 – 9-1-0) Former Maryland Terp has been a depth forward for his MLS career Overall – Clark is Serie A-bound which is why he is unprotected. There are lots of veterans who are either not going to leave Houston if picked or are too pricey (Onstad, Mulrooney, Barrett, Waibel). In terms of the under 30 crowd, Cochrane ($145) is too expensive for what he has brought to the table as of late. KANSAS CITY 1. Kevin Hartman – G (35 - $165 – 30 games – 1.40 GAA) Lots of goalies last year like Hartman were unprotected after Seattle signed Keller – little surprised to see players like Hartman again unprotected. It would be good for an expansion team like Philly to have a veteran MLS-proven durable (played just about every game in last 7 seasons) #1 goalie who has won a MLS Cup – no need to have a goalie carousel like DCU (Crayton – Kocic – Wicks – Cronin) or NY (Conway – Cepero – Coundoul) did this year. Goalies like Onstad and Keller have proven that good keepers can play into their late 30’s and even early 40’s. His $165 salary is in line with half of the starting goalies in MLS (a few are in the $125K range – Frei, Hesmer and Thornton are the ones under $100 base salary). Hartman would be my top pick if there was another expansion team also participating in this draft - instead Nowak just has to fax 10 names to MLS headquarters as opposed to a two team expansion draft like Chivas and RSL did (and Portland and Vancouver will do next year). 2. Matt Besler – D (22 - $36 – 28-0-0) 2008 first round SuperDraft pick from Notre Dame is a surprising unprotected player who represents good, young cheap value. 3. Aaron Hohlbein – D (24 - $35 – 22-2-0) CB is similar to Besler in terms of being a good young value pick. Overall – There are a few reasonably priced forward depth options (Gomez, Cristman – although he is injury prone). I do not see Philly passing on a Wizards pick – just need to decide to either go Hartman or take a young defender. LOS ANGELES 1. Todd Dunivant – D (29 - $110 – 25-1-2) Starting LB for Galaxy is reasonably priced given his credentials; however, there are cheaper LB options available in this draft. 2. Alan Gordon – F (28 - $80 – 22-3-3) Lumbering striker could be a 3rd forward option but similar to Dunivant – there are cheaper options elsewhere in this draft. 3. Josh Saunders – G (28 - $41 – 6-1/06 GAA) Former USL goalie showed well in emergency MLS Cup duty but is he ready to backstop an expansion team? Could be a decent goalie tandem option if Seitz was also acquired. Overall – Lots of older players available (Klein, Lewis, Kirovski, Miglioranzi) who are not likely to draw interest. Eskandarian was Nowak’s 2004 MLS Cup MVP but that was several concussions ago and he is likely too much of an injury risk given his $136 price tag. LA is another team that is a coin flip in terms of losing a player. NEW ENGLAND 1. Jay Heaps – D (33 - $120 – 25-1-4) Could bring veteran presence to back line and is slightly younger and cheaper than other available options. Had an uneven performance in his USMNY debut at the Gold Cup but is a serviceable, versatile MLS-caliber defender (somewhat tough to say having gone to so many DCU games where Heaps is hated) who can play in the center or out wide. 2. Pat Phelan – M (24 - $35 – 21-0-0) He is stuck behind two good ones (Joseph, Larentowicz) so he could be an option as a DM in a 3-5-2 3. Chris Albright – D (30 - $176 – 1-0-0) Another unprotected veteran defender who missed most of the season due to injury. The local RB would make for a good coming home story but there are younger, cheaper options out there at RB. Overall – Revs seemed poised to lose someone – there are some other younger players of note (Videira, Tierney, maybe Thompson) but I doubt that they will get picked. NEW YORK 1. Luke Sassano – D/M (24 - $34 – 17-0-0) Big CB/DM type who can provide some cover at those positions. 2. Nick Zimmerman – D/M (22 - $20 – 11-0-0) Rookie RB/RM was one of few bright spots in Red Bulls dismal season 3. Danny Cepero – G (24 - $34 – 13-1.74 GAA) U of Penn product is another goalie better suited to be #2 in a goalie tandem as opposed to be a #1 on an expansion team. Overall – Terrible team performance translates into lack of quality expansion picks – New York seems more than likely to be a team with no players taken by Philly. REAL SALT LAKE 1. Robbie Russell – D/M (30 - $98 – 19-0-2) Scores PK shoot-out winning goal and helps shut down Landon Donovan in MLS – then finds himself unprotected the next day. The right-sided Duke alumni and former Yank Abroad provides a veteran presence at a reasonable salary. 2. Pablo Campos – F (26 - $65 – 25-4-5) Big Brazilian striker had decent MLS debut with San Jose and then RSL this season 3. Ned Grabavoy – M (26 - $84 – 20-0-2) Versatile midfielder was picked by San Jose in its Expansion Draft and would represent a decent depth pick. Overall – MLS Champs have a few decent players available for Philly – not sure if some of the other offensive-minded veterans (Mathis, Williams) available would fit the Nowak image. Movsisyan is Denmark-bound and does not require roster protection. SAN JOSE 1. Bobby Convey – M (26 - $222 – 26-1-2) He is easily the biggest lightning rod available in the expansion draft. The LM with the local Philly ties, the high salary, the lack of on-field performance in quite a while – couple it all with the mysterious ways of MLS in terms of sometimes having players land with their desired team and it would not surprise me to see him land in Philly in some fashion. His 2009 performance does not warrant his current salary and it would likely require a trade, not a selection in the expansion draft, for San Jose to eat some of that salary (no reason for Convey to renegotiate a lower deal coming to Philly – he already has a deal in place with MLS to pay him his current $ level this season). 2. Shea Salinas – M (23 - $36 – 23-0-5) Speedy RM represents another young, cheap depth option in a draft without a tremendous number of decent outside mid options. 3. Chris Wondolowski – F (26 - $35 – 21-5-2) Another cheap forward depth option Overall – The decision to draft or pass on Convey may be the most intriguing decision for Philly with their picks. Salinas and Wondolowski offer some good cheap bench options – not much else on the Quakes unprotected roster. SEATTLE 1. Sebastian Le Toux – M/F (25 - $100 – 28-1-3) Mostly played as a RM in Sounder games that I saw. Seems to have a good work rate similar to current Philly staff member and ex-DCU player Josh Gros. Ability to also play forward is a bonus for Le Toux who was much more of a scorer with Seattle in USL. 2. James Riley – D (27 - $69 – 28-0-4) San Jose took him in 2007, Seattle took him in 2008 so Philly has to take him in 2009 – right? He seems like a logical choice given age, salary and stats – just seems to be more players like him available than Le Toux which is why I list Riley as #2. 3. Nathan Sturgis – D/M (22 - $100 – 9-0-0) Oft-injured outside back and DM was part of Nowak’s Olympic and his versatility may be of interest to Philly. Overall – One of the deeper teams in terms of available players – there are also depth options for forward (Levesque), outside mid (Nyassi) and defender (Wahl). TORONTO 1. Nick Garcia – D (30 - $190 – 13-0-0) expensive CB seems to be one of the few viable options for Philly but there are better, cheaper options to be had in this draft. 2. Amado Guevara – M (33 - $300 – 25-5-6) Pricey Honduran AM does not seem like a Nowak type player. 3. Ali Gerba – F (26 - $145 – 11-1-0) Forward has a decent strike rate for Canada but did not do much with TFC in his debut. Overall – There is just not much to pick here with all of the Canadians players and general lack of depth. I can not see Philly having much interest in any of these players based on their ages and price tags. Toronto could be the team least likely to lose a player in the expansion draft. ZMAN’S TOP TEN LIST 1. Kevin Hartman – KC - G (35 - $165 – 30 games – 1.40 GAA) 2. Robbie Russell – RSL - D/M (30 - $98 – 19-0-2) 3. Jay Heaps – NE - D (33 - $120 – 25-1-4) 4. Shavar Thomas – CHIV - D (28 - $105 – 17–0 –0) 5. Jordan Harvey – COL - D (25 - $50 – 30-0-3) 6. Devon McTavish – DC - D/M (25 - $50 – 11-0-0) 7. Mike Chabala – HOU - D/M (25 - $34 – 15-0-3) 8. Bobby Convey – SJ - M (26 - $222 – 26-1-2) 9. Sebastian Le Toux – SEA - M/F (25 - $100 – 28-1-3) 10. Jason Garey – CLM - F (25 - $53 – 15-4-2) No picks from CHI, DAL, LA, NY and TOR Total salary cap hit = $997,000 ZMAN’S NEXT BEST TOP 10 LIST 1. Todd Dunivant – LA - D (29 - $110 – 25-1-2) 2. Eddie Robinson – HOU - D (31 - $138 – 1-0-0) 3. Carey Talley – CHIV - D (33 - $128 – 27-0-1) 4. Matt Besler – KC - D (22 - $36 – 28-0-0) 5. James Riley – SEA - D (27 - $69 – 28-0-4) 6. Michael Banner – CHI - D/M (25 - $34 – 22-2-3) 7. Andrew Jacobson – DC - M (24 - $34 – 17-0-0) 8. Mehdi Ballouchy – COL - M (26 - $100 – 28-2-7) 9. Alejandro Moreno – CLM - F (30 - $132 – 22-4-1) 10. Pablo Campos – RSL - F (26 - $65 – 25-4-5) No picks from DAL, LA, NY, SJ and TOR Total salary cap hit = $846,000
I totally forgot about Jay Heaps. He would definitely be a quality pickup and a great guy to anchor a three man back line (which he has done in New England for how many years now?). Another guy whose name I haven't heard mentioned is Steven King, who was drafted by Chicago and did well for them but was left unprotected and picked up by Seattle. I don't know how much he played for them this year.
Great analyis Z-man, but I am going to harp on the need for a tough D-mid. The MLS Cup is one more data point proving the necessity of this position. Are there any good candidates for the Union out of the expansion draft?
Thanks Doc. I agree that a quality DM is very important (which is why teams are protecting the good ones) - Philly will likely need to either trade or more likely tap a foreign league to get a good DM. In terms of DMs available - the veteran ones include Richetti (DAL), Elliott (SJ), Saragosa (CHIV), Marsch (CHIV) and Robinson (TOR). Younger options include Phelan (NE), Dalby (COL) and Sassano (NY). Best overall option based on salary and skill may be Richetti.
Alot of people are talking up Convey for the expansion draft. I'd be rather surprised if that happened. Pretty much unspoken down here at DCUnited, but Convey and Nowak weren't on speaking terms back in 2004. I had someone associated with the team at that time related a story about their first meeting and how Nowak threw him out of his office. I have no reason to doubt this person. I've also had a very popular player tell me at that time in guarded terms, and honestly I didn't pick it up until after Convey went to England, that Convey was persona non grata with the team and front office. BUT, people change as well as situations. Fences may have been mended, etc., etc. Dyson 106.7 THE FAN
Welcome aboard, guys. I remember how great it was, this time three years ago, to hear the names of the first TFC players. Here' s hoping the players arriving tomorrow work out a little better for you than ours' did. It's great to have another proper eastern city to go to on away trips (as opposed to Columbus). I made a post on my blog (which is usually about Canadian soccer) about the draft, please visit if you like. http://socceruntothedogs.blogspot.com/2009/11/mls-expansion-mock-draft.html
Nice analysis Zman Gunner. My picks: 1. Hartmann, GK, KC, 35 years. Veteran anchor with several years left. 2. Robbie Russel, RB/CB, RSL, 30. Another veteran and versatile back. 3. Shavar Thomas, CB, Chivas, 28. CB anchor and partner for Ike Opara. 4. Mike Chabala, LB/LM, Hou, 25. Solid, versatile potential starter. 5. Jordan Harvey, LB, Color, 25. Another potential starter. 6. Devon McTavish, DM/M/D, DC, 25. Useful utility guy and DM. 7. Pat Phelan, DM, NE, 24. Potential starting DM. 8. Sebastian Le Toux, M/F, Sea, 25. Potential starter, or good sub, versatile. 9. Nick Zimmerman, RB/RM, NY, 22. Talented prospect at 2 positions. 10. Jason Garey, F, Colum, 25. #3 forward for good price and age. I'm very tempted to take a couple of older vets: 1) Eddie Robinson as another starting-quality CB, but I'd need inside info on his recovery; and 2) Richetti as a starting DM, but again I'd need inside info on his fitness given his age. Robinson would bump Chabala, since both are from Houston. Richetti would probably bump Phelan or McTavish. As I said in a prior post back a couple of pages ago, you can stock a full MLS starting-quality defense plus some backline depth from this expansion draft. That's where the talent lies. In particular, I'm looking for some quality starting veteran backs to partner with rookie draft choice Ike Opara. You'll still have plenty of work left forming the midfield and striker core.
$100K salary hit for a 25 year old starting-caliber player like Le Toux is fairly reasonable in the MLS Salary Cap World.
I don't think LeToux is an option because of his devotion to Seattle. It's tough to get 100% out of someone who doesn't want to be there.
100k a year for 3 more years though. That's 300k by the time his contract would be up. Look at his production level. He only has 1 goal a few assist and mostly was a sub. He's over paid for what he provides and i just don't think Philly would be taking him and celt1997 is right the team may have difficult getting 100% out of a player if they do not want to play there. You might as well trade him back for allocation money. I think he rather play for Seattle and the same with roger. There is a reason why Le Toux is one of the fan favorites in seattle and expect that same result from him in Philly will be more difficult to manage. There are more better MLS capable players that cost less than le toux out there that are available.
Totally agree about Alonso. Unless you've paid attention to Seattle, you'd probably never know that he's the heart and soul of our central midfield. Which is why we protected him. The more I look at it, the more I think no one from Seattle will be selected... For every player worth taking there's a better option out there.
I would go as cheap as possible and still get good players in the draft and spend the money on the good soccer talent there is in the states, college draft and international. 10 players from the draft 4 from the college draft 10 players elsewhere including 1 DP.
Has there been any indication if Nowak would rather play play a 3-5-2, if he can get the right players? Didn't he coach a 3-5-2 in DC? I'm sure he has to be open to playing to either a 4-4-2 or 3-5-2, depending on who you draft, who you're are able to sign, and what injuries you incur throughout the year. Just curious if he's indicated a preference for one over the other?
A 3-5-2 formation isn't a good thing especially if your opponents play attacking soccer and has speed on the wings. Look at Seattle vs DC in the US Open Cup final dc played a 3-5-2 formation and the back line couldn't stop Seattle from getting shots on goal which ultimately lead to the first goal for Seattle in the game.
It was not too long ago that a Nowak-coached team played attacking soccer - with a 3-5-2. Nowak has successfully coached against Sigi before with a 3-5-2.