Chase for the Supporters Shield

Discussion in 'Chicago Fire' started by salparadisejr, Aug 18, 2009.

  1. salparadisejr

    salparadisejr Member

    Jul 26, 2006
    Hollywood, FL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Entering the home stretch of the regular season, literally, I thought I'd make a thread to keep track of who will lift the trophy that should matter the most in MLS. :p

    For now I'd like to take a look at the top 3 teams in contention, though it is certainly reasonable to say a handful more of teams should be in the discussion, for the sole purpose of my not wanting to spend all morning doing this, top 3 will have to do!

    Chase for the Supporter's Shield
    Code:
               GP    W    L    D   GS   GD    [B]PTS[/B]
    Columbus   22    10   3    9   34   10    [B]39[/B]
    Houston    23    11   6    6   30   10    [B]39[/B]
    Chicago    21    9    4    8   30    7    [B]35[/B]
    
    So we have Columbus leading the table right now. They have the best points-per-game and also the most goals scored. We seem to be doing ok in both those categories when you consider the game in hand we have on CLB and the 2 on HOU.

    Looking at the tiebreakers, we have 2 results against each of the 2 teams ahead of us. Against Columbus we have 2 draws (@ 2-2, H 0-0), and for Houston 2 losses (H 0-1, @ 2-3). We lose any tie with Houston right off the bat. With Columbus we have 1 more fixture between us, hosting them on 9/20. An absolutely HUGE game.

    Let's take a look at what is left of each team's schedule.

    Code:
     [I]Remaining Fixtures[/I]
    
    [B][U]Columbus[/U]        [U]Houston[/U]         [U]Chicago[/U][/B]
    @ NY            Seattle         LA Galaxy
    Houston         @ Colorado      Colorado
    @ Chicago       @ Columbus      DC United
    LA Galaxy       RSL             @ RSL
    Seattle         KC              Columbus
    @ NE            LA Galaxy       Toronto FC
    @ DC            @ ChivasUSA     @ LA Galaxy
    NE                              @ NE
                                    Chivas USA
    
    A possible key element and aid to the Fire not on that list would be the Champions League fixtures both Columbus and Houston begin this month that will bite into their depth nearly every week all the way through October. Columbus have given indications that they will not be mailing it in like so many other MLS teams do with regards to the CCL. No word on how serious Houston intend to treat the CCL this year.

    The pundits say we have the toughest remaining schedule, mostly going on the W-L records of opponents left. I really don't see too much difference in remaining difficulty between the 3 teams to be honest. The thing that stands out the most to me is that 6 of our final 9 games take place at Toyota Park, including 5 of the next 6. If EVER there was a time to fix our home form, now would be it.

    We have Columbus on a tear in absolute stellar form, not having lost since 6/20, and with key injuries to boot. Though the opponents faced in these 5 trials wouldn't exactly send fear down anyone's spine. Still, they are getting results they should be getting, not dropping any points in the process.

    Houston should be worried, as they drew and lost 2 very winnable road games against RSL and Dallas. They have looked extremely shaky in home wins against DC and Chicago. The form gets even poorer if you go beyond the 5 matches. They are in a dip no question. I'm thinking they'll send out reserves for the CCL in an effort to tighten up league form. Kinnear has always valued the domestic league above all else.

    We've done well ourselves, fighting through injuries and call ups to only suffer 1 loss, and a very questionable one at that. We have done well fighting back from a disastrous 1st half in Houston, nearly grabbing points there, and embarrassing KC in their stadium with a half-reserve side.

    So here we go, entering the crucial stretch of the season. Perhaps the most comforting thought in all of this is that we appear to be in control of our own destiny. If we can win the game in hand on Columbus, beat them on their next visit, and take care of our home record, we just might be lifting something before October ends.

    Columbus will have to cool off at some point, Houston already has. In my opinion, the next 5 games will decide it all. If we win the SS, host the EC finals, and qualify for next year's CCL.

    We need to get our injured guys back, and avoid further absences. Conde, Segares, Blanco, Thorrington, and even Ward to a lesser extent, is just too much talent to do without. We won't face a broken KC squad every week. McBride won't be here for any of this, but at least Rolfe looks ready to settle in at forward (please keep him there Hammy). Nyarko has shown flashes, but we will need more from him without question.

    So this is where we make a stand.

    I will try and update this weekly. This will either be exciting, we make a run for it, or depressing if we're out of it before October rolls around. We'll see!
     
    henryo repped this.
  2. Es Brennt

    Es Brennt Member+

    Feb 25, 2003
    Shermer, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    LA has the momentum. Even with the pig sick.

    A win tomorrow is crucial.

    The line must be drawn here!!!
    [​IMG]
     
  3. Andy Zilis

    Andy Zilis Member+

    Mar 9, 2005
    Rochelle, IL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If we were better at home, I think we'd have the inside track in the SS race. Having 2 games in hand on Houston with 6 of 9 at home, plus a home game vs. Columbus means that we should be able to pass both if we can win most of the home games (including the Columbus game).

    Take it 1 game at a time, though. We have to beat LA tomorrow.
     
  4. salparadisejr

    salparadisejr Member

    Jul 26, 2006
    Hollywood, FL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yes it all starts tomorrow. From here on out every game, every goal counts. If LA beats us they overtake our position in this discussion.

    Hope the players are amped up, I know I am!
     
  5. krolpolski

    krolpolski Member+

    A wonderful summation of the situation at hand. Alas, our news media can't give us something like this.
     
  6. On the Road Again

    On the Road Again New Member

    Aug 16, 2006
    What he said...nice job on the analysis.
     
  7. Der Stich

    Der Stich Member+

    May 3, 2005
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Great post!

    (Btw, do Sal Paradise (jr) and On the Road (Again) know each other?)
     
  8. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    As I started reading your post, I started to think of things I would say, but then you covered every single one of them. Nicely done.

    My personal feeling is that our home form has been a bit fluky. We just need to put the screws to someone, finish some chances and get a 3-0, 4-1 type of win and I think we are on our way.

    The encouraging thing is that we have been a solid defensive team without Conde and Segares. Get them back and we are in great shape even without Baky. I would love to get a rested McBride back but not counting on it until maybe mid playoffs.
     
  9. milicz

    milicz Member+

    Dec 2, 2001
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Poland
    Per Luis: "The Fire is 9-4-8 with 35 points, which is the exact amount of points the Fire had at this time last season."
     
  10. Andy Zilis

    Andy Zilis Member+

    Mar 9, 2005
    Rochelle, IL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting, but I think the league as a whole is a little behind where it was last year in terms of total points due to the greater number of ties. (Though maybe this is offset by NY and SJ being considerably worse than anyone last year.) The team is in a good position to challenge for the SS if they can fix their home form.

    That home game against Columbus could end up deciding the SS.
     
  11. murtaugh

    murtaugh Member+

    Jul 19, 2004
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    I'd say our chase of the shield ended roughly about the time our back line chased swine-flu stricken Landon Donovan halfway down the field.
     
  12. henryo

    henryo Member+

    Jun 26, 2007
    I'd say that they are still very much in it, just that today's loss opened the door for LA as well.

    Depending on the outcome of the NER@SEA game tomorrow, Seattle may still be in the mix too.
     
  13. LocoGueroFutobolista

    Apr 18, 2004
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    As an aside, we also lost any chance for a 60pt season. The best we can hope for would be 59pts, which would still be phukking phenomenal. For reference, 5 teams still have a theoretical chance:
    C-bus and ChivasUSA(63pts)
    Revs, Houston, and Rapids(60pts)

    You know, guys, in all honesty, if we continue to play better on the road and get results, as much as I hate to say this, wouldn't it be better if we do not win the Shield or top the Conference standings heading into the playoffs? Just something to think about. I'm not suggesting we throw any of the remaining matches, I'm saying we shouldn't necessarily lose any hope if we have to play an away leg in the first round and travel for the Conference Final.
     
  14. Fanaddict

    Fanaddict Member+

    Mar 9, 2000
    streamwood IL USA
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Yeah we have no chance for the supporters shield. We will be lucky to make the playoffs if we keep playing like that.
     
  15. Lineman

    Lineman Member

    May 31, 2007
    Chicago, IL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    Germany
    Word.
     
  16. salparadisejr

    salparadisejr Member

    Jul 26, 2006
    Hollywood, FL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Oh come on now. :p

    As tempting as it is looking at our form Home vs. Away, you know if we're in the EC final and having to play in Columbus, that will be the difference once again. We've never lost in the playoffs at home.

    Plus, if the Fire lay an egg as they did tonight, wouldn't it be a tad more satisfying to boo them in person than at a tv set hundreds of miles away?

    Bah was does it matter? We won't win the SS, and curse me for thinking we could. The team looked so broken last night. It was like deja vu from the week prior, except this time we were Kansas City.
     
  17. ratdog

    ratdog Member+

    Mar 22, 2004
    In the doghouse
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I posted this elsewhere but I think it's even more relevant to this topic...

    Look at our record against teams in the top half of the table so far this year: 2 wins, 4 losses and 5 ties = 11 points. Compare that to our record versus the bottom half (7 wins, 1 loss and 3 ties).

    Now you'd expect a drop off in performance against better teams (duh!) so let's compare Houston's record against the top half of the table (5 wins, 3 losses, 2 ties = 17 points with one fewer game than us). Houston is 6-4-4 against teams in the bottom half, two of those losses coming from at the very beginning of the year against the Quakes.

    C-bus had a horrible start to their season but now they're the hottest team in MLS with a winning (not "undefeated") streak of 5 league games and counting. Against the top teams, they're only 2-0-8 with 14 points but those two wins have come in the past month so it looks like they're just getting into their groove at the right time so the fact that they have to play 6 top teams in their remaining games may not be as challenging for them as it is for us.

    The bad news for us is that 5 of our remaining 8 games are against teams in the top half of the table. Is the SS impossible? Not yet but IMO it is exceedingly unlikely which is a shame because we had the roster to do it.
     
  18. salparadisejr

    salparadisejr Member

    Jul 26, 2006
    Hollywood, FL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Interesting numbers. Damning numbers rather. As I said in the post-game of our latest gem, against good teams we are easy to figure out and shutdown.
     
  19. firefan2001

    firefan2001 Member+

    Dec 27, 2000
    Oswego, Illinois
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well that takes care of the SS, with last nights game. Let's hope we make the playoffs.
     
  20. ratdog

    ratdog Member+

    Mar 22, 2004
    In the doghouse
    Club:
    Chicago Red Stars
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Actually, of the top five teams in MLS (Houston, Crew, us, LA and Seattle), we are the only one that has a losing record against the top half of the league. You have to go to TFC in 6th place to find the second team with a losing record against the top half of the table. So our great record is built on padding our results against bottom feeders.

    Houston is the only team we have a game in hand against and they're 4 points ahead of us so even if we win that game in hand, it doesn't make any difference to the standings.
     
  21. shooter6065

    shooter6065 Member

    Nov 16, 2000
    Chicago
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    To be honest, you could look at the early part of this season's results to see the Supporters Shield was unlikely:

    3-3 @ San Jose.....the Fire had to comeback 3 times to salvage a draw against this crap team. SJ had some help from the ref but 3 points would have helped.

    2-2 vs KC........at home this had the makings of a demolition job as the Fire went to the half up 2-0. However as the game went on the team fell asleep. Lost two points here in a shocking collapse.

    1-1 vs Seattle....another two points lost. Seattle rarely ever had the ball and only mustered one shots on goal.

    1-1 vs New England.......Facing a team of hacks and thugs, the Fire outplayed the Revs but yet again only walked away with 1 point. Another 2 points lost here.

    I could go on and on talk about the home drubbing against Dallas, or about losing at home to Houston who also could only manage one shot, and a few other games but I'll just say this:

    By May 9, we had badly outplayed basically everybody except the Crew, and we were healthy but managed to lose 8 points we should have had IN OUR POCKETS.

    That told me the Supporter's Shield was out of reach, especially with a team composed of two stars not known for durability.
     
  22. salparadisejr

    salparadisejr Member

    Jul 26, 2006
    Hollywood, FL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Houston and Columbus bolstered their squads this week with the signings of Luis Angel Landin and Emilio Renteria respectively.

    Meanwhile in Chicago, Frank Klopas and Calen Carr were spotted at a Golden Nugget where it is believed they were hammering out the details on a 5-year contract extension.
     
  23. LocoGueroFutobolista

    Apr 18, 2004
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Drop Coloroado(57pts possible) and Houston(58) from the list. Cbus, ChivasUSA, and New England still have a shot.

    If the current ppg averages hold up through the end of the regular season, we're looking at Cbus taking the Shield, Chicago seeded 2nd, New England 3rd, and Colorado 4th in the East. TFC would just miss qualifying. The West would have Houston 1st, followed by ChivasUSA, Los Angeles, and Seattle.

    Both Chicago and Houston would have missed tying Cbus by 1 victory (roughly 3pts). That's if the averges hold up. But, since everyone knows that "the season starts in September," anything can happen.
     
  24. Chris M.

    Chris M. Member+

    Jan 18, 2002
    Chicago
    Well, given the number of games left, I do think it is possible and maybe likely that the eventually winner will run the table or close to it. Maybe drop 2 points somewhere along the line.

    The sneaky little bastards in all of this are NE and Chivas who both still have a whopping three games in hand on us and four on the Dynamo.

    Say what you will about MLS structure and parity, but most leagues are lucky to have two teams fighting for the regular season crown when you get inside of 10 games left. This is a pretty cool race.
     
  25. Andy Zilis

    Andy Zilis Member+

    Mar 9, 2005
    Rochelle, IL
    Club:
    Chicago Fire
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    That loss to LA didn't end our chances at the SS, but a loss or tie to Colorado yesterday would have. We're still within striking distance and have a crucial game at home against Columbus (this one will decide the season series, so a win would give us the tiebreaker). Add to that the fact that Columbus and Houston will each be playing 2 games a week for the next month, and I think we've still got a decent chance. Fixing the team's play at home is a must, though.

    If we can beat DC on Saturday, we'll take over the top spot in the league for at least a day.

    For the first time ever, I'm a big fan of Richie Williams right now. I'm not going to count on it, but a RBNY tie or win at home against Columbus would help our chances.
     

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