The real Hex standings

with 3.5 of the 6 teams qualifying, it is true that Mexico (or any team that is yet to drop points at home) is really not in bad shape (at this point). if the US can grab a point or some points in Mexico -- then Mexico might start to really be in a bad spot, as dropping points at home makes the 5 road games that much more vital, and as we've seen Mexico is already 0-3 on the road

let the Hex play out.

any team that gets 15 points (or close to it) at home and can pick up a few points on the road will find success in this Hex. It is still "relatively early," and a lot can change in the final 5 and 2/3 matchdays remaining.

again, for a look at the "real Hex standing," keep an eye on this site:
http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/nccamerica/standings/index.html

 

Honduras is kind of the Spain of CONCACAF (the traditional Spain as opposed to the current Spain, that is), aren't they?

 

Yeah, but Mexico and Honduras have only played one match at home so far, while the US and Costa Rica have played three. And Mexico's first two road matches were AT Honduras and AT the US. They've had the hardest schedule so far, while Coast Rica's arguably been the easiest. The current hex standings are really skewed because the US and Costa Rica have played one more match, and in both cases it's one extra home match. Mexico and Honduras are going to win their matches on Wednesday.

Then the standings will be:

Costa Rica 12
US 10
Honduras 7
Mexico 6
El Salvador 5
TT 2

It should be no surprise that the two teams of the top 4 that have had the extra home game will be in the lead. We essentially have no lead on Honduras right now (both teams have won all their home games and got one point on the road), and just a one point lead on Mexico (we have a road point, they don't).

Yes Mexico is in a hole, but not one they can't get out of. If they beat TT and the US at home in their next two games (both the most likely result), we'll just be one point ahead of them. If they don't win both of those games, then they're in trouble. If we can get a point at the Azteca, then we'll have a 4 point lead on them with two of our easier games next on the docket (home to ES and away to TT). If that scenario occurs, we'll have 17 points and an unassailable lead against Mexico. That's why that game for them at Azteca is do-or-die for them. That could put them in a position where they'd have to win at Saprissa to finish 3d. Good luck with that.

By the way, Mexico has a very good history playing in South America........compare to the US. At the last Copa America they beat Ecuador for instance, a possible opponent in the CONCACAF-CONMEBOL series. That CONMEBOL 5th place spot is up in the air. The top 4 now have separation (Brazil, Paraguay, Chile Argentina) and look in really good shape. The 5th team could be either Uruguay, Ecuador, Venezuela, or Colombia. That's really up in the air. I bet Mexico could win a home-away series with any of those nations, and they're the only CONCACAF nation I'd give a chance to.

 

We agree with each other regarding the math, just not the desperation of Mexico's situation. Yes, the pressure really is on them to get those two home victories, but they're going to destroy TT on Wednesday. That's a team that has no clue, and devoid of confidence after losing at home to Costa Rica. Then they get us, and we've only ever taken points at Azteca once. You'd be crazy to bet your mortgage on the US at the Azteca, especially because we're not looking all that great right now either. If that happens the gap is only one point, with both teams with a game at TT left. That's where heads will turn. CR and Honduras have already picked up points at TT.

For me, due to the predominance of home wins for the top 4.................this could all come down to who picks up the most road points against TT and ES. CR is in good shape with their win at TT, with a match at ES still to come. Honduras and the US both have one road point only, while Mexico has none. So Mexico and the US still play at TT, while Honduras plays AT ES still. That's what it's going to come down to.

That's what it's looking like to me. I just can't see one of the top 4 losing at home now. And I'm with you...................Mexico still has to play at home against both the US and Honduras. The US has already played Mexico and Honduras at home and have won both. That puts us in the position where we just need to win the games we should win the rest of the way. It's going to be a bit of a nail-biter though. We could easily go into that last home match against CR, needing a result. If we don't win AT TT, then we'll go into that match needing a win.

It really is becoming like a Euro group where the final order is determined by who can win versus who can draw at places like Iceland and Lithuania. It's going to be fun.

(Let's all pray for ES going to Honduras and getting a draw on Wednesday. That would change everything drastically. It's fun speculating after each round of games, but then it's all rendered meaningless by the end of the next round when a surprise result like ES 2-Mex 1 comes in)

 

I wish the Azteca game was next Wednesday. Mexico's confidence is completely shot. I watched ESPN Deportes last night, and the commentators were hyterical. They now have several months to adjust and plan for our match. The good news is that we've been so schizo recently, they won't know what to expect. Will we play a 4-3-3 with most of our players our of position? The one thing you can say about that is Bob just decided to roll the dice instead of trying the status quo that hasn't worked for us on the road. Will he try his 4-5-1? How about the 4-4-2 we used against Honduras. I mean, I have no idea and I follow this team like a nutjob.

The problem is the way Mexico's playing right now. I've never seen a Mexico team that's as anemic on offense, that seems not to have any ideas of how to score. For those that watched the game, it really could have been 2-0. When we were losing 2-0 at ES, our team REALLY fought to get a result. You know, we could have won that game with Ching's late chance. Mexico didn't fight the way we did. And that's the problem for them.

They'll get it together in the next couple of months. And remember that the Gold Cup comes in between. Due to the fact we're going to take a "B" team to that competition, Mexico has a good chance to win it. And that would completely change their confidence level.

 

Re: Mexico and the "real" standings...

Mexico has thus far had the disadvantage of playing 3 road matches and only 1 home match. They are thus far "perfect" at home, having won their only match at Azteca (against the Ticos). So it's still relatively likely that they'll finish with a minimum of 15 point simply from the home matches.

As far as opportunities to pick up some road points goes, they have only Costa Rica and T&T left. Getting a result from the Ticos at Saprissa will be very difficult (and should they manage, they're back in with a shout). T&T is likely the easiest road venue of the Hex, and the Ticos were the first to get a road victory at precisely that venue. Mexico always seems to have more difficulty against the Soca Warriors than you'd think they should, but 1 or 3 is a distinct possibility for them.

Purely theoretically speaking, at this point they're a point behind us because they didn't get anything out of El Salvador where we did. The only thing we could do worse than them in their other road (Honduras) would be to lose by a worse goal margin (and Mexico lost by 2). No matter the result, we wouldn't "lose points" vis-a-vis Mexico.

To keep pace with the Ticos (and theoretically at this point they still can, as strange as that sounds), they need to win at Trinidad.

In any case, they need to hold serve at home. This is not surprising, but generally Mexico has a bit more margin for error than they've left themselves this time around.

At this point, theoretically Honduras is even with Mexico. Honduras held serve at home against Mexico (its only home match thus far) and failed on the road against one of the same opponents that Mexico has, the US. Honduras also lost to Costa Rica by two goals just as we did (a 2-0 margin as opposed to our "better" 3-1 margin). They earned a point on the road off T&T, and Mexico will need to at least match that if they're to avoid a playoff.

Of course this isn't a given, but assuming theoretically for a moment that the "big 4" all manage to hold serve at home as we all thus far have, the key matches left in determining the order among us would be the US at T&T (probably the easiest road venue of the Hex; we need a win to keep pace with the Ticos for first place, a draw keeps us even with Honduras), Honduras at El Salvador (any points there put them ahead of Mexico, a win gains them 2 points on us), and Mexico at T&T, which comes on the last match day. My bet is that Mexico will need a point or three from T&T to avoid the playoff.

And I strongly feel that goal difference is going to play a part in the standings of the top 4.

El Salvador and T&T are both effectively out of the top 4 unless one of them has a major stumble in their home form (more than 1 match). El Salvador has hosted 3 matches and has only 5 points, having dropped 4 in draws to the US and T&T. This means that Mexico (or Honduras) would need to do worse than losing a single home match to be in any danger of finishing 5th. Unless El Salvador surprisingly begins picking up road victories...

In other words, Mexico has its work cut out for them. They're still in perfectly fine shape, only a theoretical point behind Honduras and the US, but the pressure to be perfect at home mounts. Honduras is similarly only a point better. Same with us, but our two home matches left are El Salvador and Costa Rica on the final match day (when they quite likely might have already qualified). We've already managed one road point, and we still have the likeliest place to get road points (T&T) left on the schedule.

In short, any loss at home by any of the top 4 will alter the picture between them radically. But it will not drop them from the top 4 unless it's more than a single home loss. The only way that El Salvador can likely manage to crack the top 4 at this point is to WIN on the road against a team other than T&T while holding their serve at home from here on out (vs Costa Rica and Honduras). And they'll probably need a point or 3 at T&T as well. In other words, I think they're out of it barring several surprising results. T&T's hole is even deeper.

 

Quoted for truth. Put another way, if given the choice, would you rather be in our situation right now or Mexico's? I imagine just about anyone would take "points earned" over "points likely to come".

Mexico's horse is still in the race because of their historic overwhelming superiority at home, but they will be under immense pressure to get results in nearly every one of the rest of their fixtures, which is never a good place to be in a crazy sport like soccer. Honduras is actually probably in worse shape because they don't have the same advantages Mexico has at home.

What is interesting to me in this hex is how big of a disadvantage it is to have your tough games "frontloaded" on the schedule. Reverse the US and Mexico schedules and I think you'd have us all panicking around here about now. As it is, we are in a relatively (but not entirely) comfortable position. I think we are seeing the schedule of the Hex play such an important role this time around because of the increased parity across the six teams involved. In spite of what many people believe, the "top four" teams in this Hex are very close in terms of quality, and the bottom two have more than enough quality to take points off of the top four on a given day, especially at home.

 

I think that is incorrect. Honduras have a point on the road, while Mexico have none. While it isn't the same opponent, they are still ahead. Mexico played El Salvador away, Honduras T&T, that is not the same opponent.

Road points:
1. Costa Rica = 3
2. USA = 1 (draw @El Salvador)
3. Hondruas = 1 (draw at T&T)
4. Mexico = 0.

And while there is some validity to saying it's nice to have banked the home wins while all the pressure is now on the others to hold serve, I'd much rather have the road points banked than the home ones.

Once again, after round six, you'll get the real idea, after everyone has 3H/3A played, and 2H/2A on the road, with half against minnows and half against contenders.

 

Makes sense since 16 points was good enough for third in the last qualification.

 

Hate to say it but i'm not as sold as everyone else is about Mexico reeling off home wins this year. Since the last go round of qualifiers they havent impressed me at all. Not the Mexico i'm use to seeing. The first game of this hex i was like ok we beat them good and used them as a feel for how our team would do. Wrong thing to do. But its so much more pressure to know that you HAVE to win every home game if you cannot win or tie an away game. I wouldnt be surprised IF mexico did drop a home game. Whether it be 2 ties or a loss to someone I really think they will...call me crazy. But im just not as convinced as everyone else is that they will hold serve at home.

They have been in panic mode since Sven got them off to a bad start and are probably in more of one since they loss last night. If there was a time i think we could actually steal (and i do think our chances are better than the usual 1%) a point if not a win...its this year. As long as Bob goes out with the mentality to play and not just sit back and figured we've lost when we landed (they way we played in CR) then we have a chance.

Just my humble opinion...dont kill me for it

 

Agree overall with all your points, except that I'll point out that Honduras has done something which Mexico has not as of yet, which is to earn road points (a draw at T&T). It's not to say that Mexico won't but following your logic of "points already earned is better than points likely to come," Honduras already has one in the bank and Mexico has none.

I expect Mexico to hold serve at home. I will be somewhat surprised if Honduras doesn't either, at this point, though I'll agree that's a bit less certain. But I'm certainly happier to be in our shoes than either of theirs at this point.

However, in order to drop out of the top 4, they have to stumble at home more than a single loss, and El Salvador has to get an away win and some other away points, having dropped 4 points at home already. None of the "big 4" have dropped any home points as yet.

 

The thing is, vis a vis Honduras and Mexico, both have only had 1 home match, and both "banked" it already. They both still have lots to play, which gets back to your second paragraph.

Assuming that all four of the top 4 win all their home matches (not a completely safe assumption, I'll grant), Mexico could jump ahead of Honduras on the final matchday with a win at T&T. Then again, if Honduras manages a win at El Salvador, then they stay ahead of Mexico. Unless Mexico pulls off a win at Saprissa...

This discussion will make more sense after midweek, at least, when the rest of CONCACAF has played 5 games, of course... And that will of course put our own accomplishments and failures more clearly into perspective.

My gut says that we're currently looking pretty good for 2nd or 3rd place regardless of a possible loss at Azteca. Any result at Azteca puts Mexico into a 4th place hole (a surmountable hole), and makes our hold on a spot in the top 3 nearly unassailable.

 

If we hold serve at home against ES (almost a done deal) and CR (a little scarier, but should happen) We have 16 points. Then, we, in all reality need just one road win or two road draws to guarantee qualification. And we probably don't even need that. But, we'll probably win at TT and have a good chance of tying Mex and/or Hon away (paging Mr. Mathis).

What I wouldn't give for a HON/ES draw.

 

THere's no way Mexico won't be in the top 4. People are excited about El Salvador's performance, but they've only gotten 5 points from 3 home games. While they've gotten good results, in order to finish in the top 4 of this hex you need to win those games. They still have to go to the US, Mexico, TT.........and have home matches against their central american brethren Costa Rica and Honduras. They're going to pick up more points than many of us were expecting..............but they aren't in very good shape at all to finish in 4th. In effect, our comeback in the 2nd half........knocked them out of contention. They HAD to win that match.

If you're a US fan, you now realize that if you win the games you're supposed to win the rest of the way (two home games against ES and CR, and away to TT) then you're going to go to the world cup. Period. But it could get really ulcer-forming if we lose at both Honduras and Mexico. That'll undoubtedly mean we'll need a result against CR at home, and you never want to be in that position. If we only draw at TT, then we'll probably need to WIN against CR to finish 3rd. And soccer's the kind of sport where you can do everything right and still draw. That's not a position we want to be in at all. So it will probably all come down to that road game at TT for us. Remember in the last cycle we did win at TT, but Kasey Keller hand to stand on his head for us in order for us to get that result. TT has some good players despite their perfromances so far.

Anyway we can talk about this all we want. If the home teams on Wednesday (Honduras and Mexico) both don't win, then everything changes in an instant. If El Salvador can get a point at Honduras? Wow, does that put the US in much better shape. And it would also put ES back in the top 4 picture after their two home draws.

 

These were precisely my points, stated in different and perhaps confusing terms. In order for any of the top 4 to fall out of the top 4, they'll have to stumble at home worse than a single loss, and El Salvador will need at least one road WIN against one of them and an additional 1-3 points, probably at T&T.

El Salvador at this point is therefore not a true contender, but they could end up being a very interesting spoiler in this.

 

Bingo...

Right now, the US is +5 over Honduras and a staggering +7 over Mexico, with a game in hand for both Honduras and Mexico.

Now of course, with expected wins this Wednesday for both teams, that will change but this (goal differential) will be huge at the end of days.

Let us pray for draws in both matches on Wednesday, that would be the best result for the US.

 

Also of note, I think Costa Rica is pretty much in the World Cup now considering their success at home and already bagging 3 road points.

Therefore, don't be suprised to see a "B" team take the field against the US for the last game in the Hex in DC.

Now, I fully expect the US to win against Costa Rica with their full side, should they decide to bring them along, but you would have to think that if the US needed a win (which hopefully they won't) in the last match, they would most likely be playing against the second team (not unlike the last WC cycle when the US sent most of their European based players back after clinching against Mexico and then we got pwned 3-0).

Something to think about.

 

What CR has essentially done is assure themselves that if they win their two remaining home games against TT and Mexico, then they're thru. Now Mexico beat them at Saprissa in the last cycle, and if that happens again..............the pressure is back on. Because their three road games are AT Honduras, AT the US, and AT El Salvador (no easy game as we've learned........the hard way.........as El Salvador is unbeaten at home)

You could easily see both the US and Mexico winning at TT just like CR did, and Honduras can win at El Salvador. But the reality is that CR has already gotten those 3 valuable road points, while the others have to go out and do it. And, more than likely, all of those road wins won't happen. So CR is in great shape.

 

I'd also add that even if the US and Mexico get the 3 points at T&T, Honduras didn't, so Costa Rica already has that over them. Two more wins and their in, and they have those two home matches you mention. They're also the team that is most likely to win in Honduras, given that they have often gotten points there in past qualifiers.

 

We should hope they win every game until they face us, because if we lose at Mexico (very likely) and Honduras (quite possible), defeat El Salvador here and T&T there, the standings going into the final round could look like this:

CR 19 - After two home wins and a loss at HN, but a draw at ES
US 16 - A draw at T&T would leave us with only 14 points!
HN 16 - After four home wins and a loss at MX
MX 15 - After four home wins and a loss at CR

Six points against ES and TT will not insure we will avoid the playoff if we lose or draw on the final day.

Honduras is at El Salvador and Mexico at T&T, but both home sides probably will be out of the running and may field B teams. If Costa Rica were to lose at El Salvador they would only have 18 and actually could finish tied with Mexico.

Though the odds are against the above scenario, it is not that far-fetched if Honduras and Mexico play to their potential. Of course both Mexico (unlikely) and Honduras (possibly; they lost there twice the last time they were in the Hex) could drop points at home, but we can't assume they will.

 

In a nutshell.

 

Fifa.com -- Aguirre: Mexico can recover