McCain camp ready to make decesion, may do so before Olympics(but after Obama is back). http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25841923/ That means they know who it is, and whoever it is knows it to. Wasn't someone going to McCains office yesterday or the day before? Pawlenty maybe? Being ready in short notice, the media should push the issue, of course they won't. CNN Political Markets show Romney, Pawlenty and Portman as the 3 most likely, with Huckabee 4th but not gaining much ground. Bobby Jindal had a major selloff today.(the Obama top 4 are Sebelius, Bayh, Biden and Clinton. InTrade has Romney and Pawlenty as 1/2 as well.(also has Sebelius, Biden and Bayh)
The rampant rumor I've heard tonight is that Romney gets announced as the GOP VP nominee late Tuesday morning. It's something that everyone in Romney's DC circle is hearing (this is the first time I can actually say that) and people who are normally very reliable are passing it along. Could it be the normal unsubstantiated rumor mill? Sure. For the life of me, I couldn't pinpoint the source. And because, of course, with McCain making the decision solely with his inner circle (Davis, Black, Schmidt, Graham, etc.) there's zero chance that anyone in the Romney camp--including Romney himself--knows for certain. But I've heard it too many times from too many places tonight that it's going to be Romney. For the first time, I believe it for a fact. Whether it's Tuesday or not is a different story, but has been alluded to before, the only reason to forgo the strategic advantage of picking last is to pick Romney--any other pick can and should be made after Denver. Side note: many of the same people that I've talked to tonight believe that Evan Bayh is the DEM pick. That, however, comes admittedly from pure speculation (or perhaps some groupthink).
Tuesday would make sense, right after Obama comes back. Try to limit his bounce. I really don't think it will be Evan Bayh. Obama seems more likely to pick someone he is close to. Biden and Richardson come to mind of people he has grown close to this year, while if he wants to go further into his personal relationships, McCaskill or Kaine.
Romney is McCain's pick. Isn't McCain having a small meeting in Sedona this weekend to announce his VP pick to them, signaling that he will announce on Monday or Tuesday? And Obama isn't going to pick Bayh. Did anyone hear Rachel Maddow yesterday? Bayh was on the "Liberate Iraq" group or whatever it was called. He's going with Biden.
I won't stay home, but I may vote Constitution party or Libertarian. Romney won't get McCain my vote. I was reading online somewhere that Romney will get it only because it will give Michigan to McCain by a comfortable margin. Anyone else and he loses Michigan. I have no idea if Romney would put Mass in play for McCain and of course Utah will go McCain regardless.
No VP is going to turn ANY state from sure loss to sure win. Romney helps McCain at the margins in Michigan and Nevada. Is that a big enough reason to pick him? Maybe.
I think his wealth plays a part in his anticipated selection. The Dems -- for once -- have the lead in cash and McCain/Romney wouldn't have to worry about being caught short in the bucks department.
would you give a large part of your wealth in what will more than likely be a failed bid for the Vice Presidency?
Romney has been a big fund raiser since pulling out of the primaries. He threw in the towel early and seems to have been soliciting for the VP slot ever since. He apparently thinks its worth it.
Failed 2008 bid=Race against Obama in 2012. Romney is probably going to try and show himself as being "Presidential" and refining his postions as a VP nominee, and then, on the day after election day, start running for President again. If there is one thing about Romney, it's that you can buy him being a President. He looks the part. But he needs to figure out who he is politically.
Petreaus would have to retire from the Military. And I believe I read somewhere, when asked why more Military personel are Republicans that he said, with a smile, there are more Democrats then you think. Nobody knows what Petreaus thinks regarding any issues other then the Iraq surge, which he admits was a risk, most would agree a succesful risk. But on the issues of Taxes, Abortion, Domestic spending, drilling for oil, other energy sources, no one knows where he stands...so basically, don't get your hopes up. ABC reported that the final 3 for McCain are Romney, Pawlenty and Portman. What they are basing that off of is anybodys guess.
I think McCain would happily use Romney to stir the rumor mill. Then again, maybe McCain's dumb enough to pick him.
Yeah, I don't see it happening--if there was any truth to the rumor, there'd have to have been a leak by now. But it was/is believable. In fact, it would have been the first sensible thing the campaign did in awhile. Like I've said before, if Romney is the pick, it makes zero sense to wait past this week.
So Kaine seems to be high on Obama's lists and I don't think you guys have discussed him much. What do you all see as the pro's and cons of picking him? Would he deliver Virginia? I guess that would offset (almost) potentially losing Michigan to a McCaine-Romney ticket.
I think if you look at the two states without considering vp picks, Obama currently has a better chance at cherry picking Virginia than McCain does Michigan, so yes, I think this would help put him over the top. Romney has connections to Michigan but they are ancient. He hasn't lived there as an adult and has never represented them. More importantly, I think that Obama and McCain really get along. He would be a solid pick.
I think I was a bit distracted while typing. Come to think of it, McCain would give Obama that strong military guy and the old white guy presence many think he needs. Besides, McCain could probably be convinced that being Obama's vp is the closest he will ever get to being president.