I don't know much about Cox, but he seems like the kind of candidate that could benefit McCain. Forbes is such an awful choice that I can't believe anyone on the planet is floating it. For one thing, he seems to have little in common with McCain politically, and everyone in the country would see his selection as a blatant pander. More importantly, he's a numbskull who simplifies everything through an ideological prism, he has little charisma, and he's a complete douchebag. The dude would get ripped to shreds in a debate. I mean ripped to shreds. In other words, please, Sen. McCain, consider Steve Forbes as a running mate!
Three things I've heard, with the caveat that John McCain has a mind of his own and will make his own decision: 1) Romney's name is getting a lot of play, now. He explicitly said he'd take the nomination if the offer was made, which drops the barrier (saying "no" in order to preserve himself for 2012) that some thought might exist. He's also instructed his finance team to give McCain extensive help (Meg Whitman just became a McCain National Co-Chair). In the other direction, you're actually starting to hear McCain's people say positive things about Romney. And the non-aligned senior strategists (Rove, Mehlman, etc.) are pushing Romney behind the scenes. I don't want to suddenly say he's the favorite, after what I said earlier, but if the personal animosity barriers are being overcome--and outside appearances seem to indicate they are--I'm beginning to think that Romney is the most likely pick. 2) The Ridge trial balloon that some have seen on the blogosphere and elsewhere is real. Ridge and McCain are very close and Ridge is making it as clear as possible that he wants the job. That being said, conservatives reacted angrily when it was first broached--Ridge's House voting record is very moderate, if not liberal. And it would be a bit hypocritical to put a pro-choice Catholic on the national GOP ticket after 2004. If friendship matters most, there's a chance that this will happen, but I think McCain is more pragmatic than that. 3) Colin Powell's name will get mentioned, unless he squashes the thought when it first comes up (which he very well might). In 1996, McCain said that Powell was best prepared to be VP, despite his pro-choice position. Powell certainly comes with some baggage now, but McCain has never wavered in his personal admiration for Powell. If McCain thinks that a "powerhouse experience" ticket is a potential winner, and if he thinks he can get away with it with the base, he'd do it. In general, I think you're going to see McCain go in an "experience" direction. I initially thought Thune would be a good pick, but I've since realized that all it will do is negate the "is he ready on Day One" question that McCain plans to ask Obama. And, as I mentioned above, Pawlenty and Sanford will get a lot of chatter, but I think both will flame out right near the end. I think the notion of picking a 55-65 year old who comes off as a plausible President will--rightly--trump the idea of picking a boyish Governor or Senator (see: Quayle, 88) to combat the age concerns. If someone in McCain's inner circle convinces him that Romney helps him hold CO/NV and puts MI into play, Romney might become the obvious choice. Otherwise, I think it's going to be a relatively big name with some national security credentials.
I just realized a few things. Of course John McCain knows that Romney would end any concerns about raising money but I wonder if McCain is ignorant or foolish to think that he will still be running the campaign once Romney has final say over how much of Romney's money will be spent.
Mass Ref can correct me if I'm wrong, but I doubt money matters. McCain is going to want to publicly finance in order to try to get Obama to do the same. And I would think McCain could raise the necessary money with little difficulty. If the economy continues to struggle, it seems like Powell is a poor choice.
Mark Sanford. I've never heard of that Cox guy before now, but I liked what I read from one article, at least.
I can barely understand how conseravatives supported Romney in the primaries ("better than McCain or Rudy"), but I find it hard to believe they could swallow his act as a VP. He has some impressive talents, but still. The best thing he's got going for him is that McCain isn't the brightest fellow.
Reasons why it should be Pawlenty: 1. He's young. 2. Tough on illegal immigration. 3. Swing state governor. 4. Good fiscal conservative credentials. 5. Co-chairman of McCain's national campaign. 6. Well-liked by Christian conservatives, but doesn't wear his faith on his sleeve. 7. Chairman of the National Governors Association... has to count for something. 8. I'm from Minnesota and I'm biased. It's true that he just barely got re-elected, but I think he should get some credit for surviving the Great Republican Purge of 2006 in a blue state.
Portman does indeed seem like a good VP candidate. He might be considered "soft" on immigration by some though, based on his record. So he wouldn't be helping out McCain on that issue.
I like Rob Portman--a lot. In fact, I hope he runs for President someday. That being said, I don't think he has the gravitas McCain needs. I think he and Jindal are naturals for the nomination in (depending on the way things shake out) 2012, 2016 or even 2020. OMB and USTR are great things to have on the resume, but it hasn't given him a huge public profile. Rob Portman is sort of like the Republican's anonymous version of Bill Richardson. Portman needs to run for Governor of Ohio first, then he's a natural for running for POTUS on his own merits (like Richardson). A Portman pick wouldn't upset conservatives that know him. But it also wouldn't illicit many huge cheers, since he isn't widely known. It would be somewhere between a safe pick and a dud. And--and this is important--polling shows it doesn't help in Ohio. Portman is from there, yes, but he only represented 1 out of 18 congressional districts, so he's not known statewide. If McCain went with Portman I think it would indicate clearly that McCain believes he is going to win on his own merits and doesn't expect that close of an election. I highly doubt that conclusion is going to be reached. People in GOP (and specifically McCain) circles like Portman because many see him as President one day. And many see him, based on his resume, as Presidential now. But I think when people take a step back and look, they'll see that, despite his accomplishments, it's too early for him and he also doesn't add anything electorally.
I wonder if/when this becomes a campaign issue for the Democrats. From a strategic standpoint, I think Barbour is a strong choice. Southern governor with strong GOP leadership cred. Would help with the "base." He's strong on the core GOP issues that hurt McCain. Doesn't help with the independents, however, but I think McCain's biggest problem may be the base. Then again, I'm usually wrong.
I know people (all of them very nice) who believe this to be fact, that the dinosaur bones are a test of faith (since the earth is only 5000 or so years old)
Excellent analysis except for one sticking point. McCain can't pick Watts if Obama wins the DEM nomination because it eliminates their ability to play the race card.
I'm confused. If they're a test of faith, upon the backs of what beasts did Adam and Eve ride to Sunday school? Dinosaurs were real and they frollicked with the Israelites, just like Pebbles and Bamm-Bamm in The Flinstones.
I think McCain needs a guy like Lieberman. It is not like the conservative Christians are going to vote for Obama or Clinton. Christians are scared to death of Barrak's connections with the Muslim world. They will bite the bullet and vote Republican. He needs someone to take votes away from the Democrats.
There's one way in which Lieberman is a good pick. The lefty blogs and activists HATE HATE HATE the guy, and they'll go nuts. They'll overreact and it'll be great fodder for the right wing media, and if that branch of the party is successful in moving their stuff into the MSM (and you'd have to predict the conservatively biased media would be all too happy) that'll get Obama off message alot. But Lieberman is kinda old and looks even older. Still, it'd be funny to have the first ever VP candidate who functions as a troll.
I was reading something a few days ago regarding McCain's startegy that makes sense. He has "last licks" as it were, in that the GOP convention is a week after the Democrats. He has two alternative strategies, the choice of which (and his VP choice) depend on what the Democrats do. 1. Fight for the center -- if the Democrats nominate Obama and otherwise run left (gambling that Bush fatigue and general unhappiness trumpt other issues) then McCain makes a bold push to win the center. In such case, he contests maybe 30 states (the rest being seen as safely red or hopelessly blue). In that case he might pick Lieberman as it may to further appeal to the center. 2. Secure the base -- if the Democrats nominate Clinton or if Obama picks someone like Webb or Casey as VP, then McCain uses the strategy of firing up the conservative base. In such case, he contests maybe 12-14 states, much as Bush did (the rest being seen as safely red, hopelessly blue or not worth the resources). McCain himself still tracks toward the center (and you will see Lieberman around alot I guess) but he picks a VP that makes the conservative base happy.
I like Barbour a lot. He's one of the GOP's more successful governors right now. That being said, his lobbying career would be a huge drag on the ticket. It opens him--and McCain--up to so many lines of attack. Democrats would salivate at the chance to attack Barbour. And as Barbour himself said, he adds nothing geographically to the ticket. And I'm not positive, but I don't think McCain and Barbour have much of a personal relationship established. His name will be out there, but I just don't see how his selection would ever make any sense.
I came across this today: However, it's debatable whether this group has enough power to sway McCain one way or another. I think the more important factor is that McCain and Romney famously feel pretty strong emnity toward one another.