We are down to the final third of the season with most teams having 6 games left. So lets count it down... THE STANDINGS Team --- Wins -- Loses -- Ties --Points Atlanta - 8 ------ 3 ------ 4 ----- 28 Boston -- 7 ------ 4 ----- 4 ----- 25 NY ------ 7 ------ 7 ----- 2 ----- 23 DC ------ 6 ------ 5 ----- 3 ----- 21 SD ------ 5 ------ 4 ----- 6 ----- 21 Carolina - 5 ------ 7 ----- 3 ----- 18 SJ ------ 5 ------ 8 ----- 2 ----- 17 Philly ---- 3 ----- 8 ------ 4 ----- 13 PLAYOFF MAGIC NUMBER FORMULA GP = Games played PTS = Points won GL = Games left = 21 (games each team plays) minus GP PTL = Points left to win = GL times 3 (pts per win) PTP = Points Possible (total points a team can earn if they win all remaining games) = PTS plus PTL Magic # = the points needed to assure a playoff spot = PTP (of the current fifth place team-the playoff cutoff) plus 1 pt (to nullify any tiebreaker situation) minus PTS Team -- GP -- PTS -- GL -- PTL -- PTP -- M# Atl ----- 15 --- 28 ---- 6 ---- 18 ---- 46 --- 11 Bos ---- 15 --- 25 ---- 6 ---- 18 ---- 43 --- 14 Was --- 14 --- 21 ---- 7 ---- 21 ---- 42 --- 18 SD ----- 15 --- 21 ---- 6 ---- 18 ---- 39 --- 18 _______________________________________ NY ----- 16 --- 23 ---- 5 ---- 15 ---- 38 --- 16 Car ---- 15 --- 18 ---- 6 ----- 18 ---- 36 --- 21 SJ ----- 15 --- 17 ---- 6 ----- 18 ---- 35 --- 22 Philly --- 15 --- 13 ---- 6 ---- 18 ---- 31 --- 26 Note that the teams below the line have a M# that is greater than the their PTL, therefore must have help (in the form of losses) by the team's above the line. So a magic number of 11 for Atlanta means with the remaining 6 games they need to win 3 and tie 2 to make the playoffs. REMAINING SCHEDULE The teams left on the schedule for the Beat are Boston (1), New York (2), Philly (2) and SJ (1). They have already won the season series with Boston, San Diego and Washington. And have lost the season series with Carolina (again ). Boston has Atl(1), Car(1), NY(1), SJ(2), DC(1) DC has Bos(1), NY(1), Philly(1), SD(3), SJ(1) SD has Car(2), NY(1), DC(3) New York has Atl(2), Bos(1), SD(1), DC(1) Carolina has Bos(1), Philly(2), SD (2), SJ(1) SJ has Atl(1), Bos(2), Car(1), Philly(1), DC(1) Philly has Atl(2), Car(2), SJ(1), DC(1) Interestingly, DC and SD have yet to play each other this season.
Thanks for the details, but given the tightness of WUSA talent, I think its a bit early for this... injuries (keep your figners crossed!!!) may be a factor. Let's see what the next 3 games bring. Is anyone going to do a PBP for the Phily game Wed?
I'd quibble with that statement a little bit. A better way to put it might be that Atlanta is guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win 3 and tie 2. Odds are pretty good they'll still make the playoffs even if they don't do that well. In any case, your efforts to work all these numbers out are appreciated.
That is quirky. Conversely, Boston finished their series with SD in their 7th game (including two trips to the left coast).
This is very good news for the Beat. With these teams taking points from each other, that will help the Beat's chances to get home field advantage for a semifinal. The Beat really have to bust their tale to host a semifinal. As we all know, the final is in SD this year so WUSA would love to have Team Foudy make it. If SD makes the playoffs, any team playing them had better count on dubious officiating at best (Foudy gets all the calls anyway). There is a chance that either SD or Carolina will make the playoffs. If so, we better have home field when we play them.
That was a HUGE three points. The Beat are starting to put some separation between us the the rest of the league. A win over Boston will make it really hard for one team to pass us MUCH LESS two teams.
AS OF JULY 20th THE STANDINGS Team --- Wins -- Loses -- Ties --Points Atlanta -- 9 ------ 3 ------ 5 ----- 32 Boston -- 7 ------ 4 ----- 5 ------ 26 DC ------ 7 ------ 6 ----- 3 -------24 SD ------ 6 ------ 5 ----- 6 ------ 24 NY ------ 7 ------ 8 ----- 2 ------ 23 Carolina - 6 ------ 7 ----- 3 ------ 21 SJ* ------ 5 ------ 8 ----- 2 ----- 17 Philly* ---- 3 ----- 9 ------ 4 ----- 13 * have yet to play their match this week PLAYOFF MAGIC NUMBER FORMULA GP = Games played PTS = Points won GL = Games left = 21 (games each team plays) minus GP PTL = Points left to win = GL times 3 (pts per win) PTP = Points Possible (total points a team can earn if they win all remaining games) = PTS plus PTL Magic # = the points needed to assure a playoff spot = PTP (of the current fifth place team-the playoff cutoff) plus 1 pt (to nullify any tiebreaker situation) minus PTS Team -- GP -- PTS -- GL -- PTL -- PTP -- M# Atl ----- 17 --- 32 ---- 4 ---- 12 ---- 44 ---- 5 Bos ---- 16 --- 26 ---- 5 ---- 15 ---- 41 --- 11 Was --- 16 --- 24 ---- 5 ---- 15 ---- 39 --- 13 SD ----- 17 --- 24 ---- 4 ---- 12 ---- 36 --- 12 _______________________________________ Car ---- 16 --- 21 ---- 5 ---- 15 ---- 36 --- 16 NY ---- 17 --- 23 ---- 4 ----- 12 ---- 35 --- 13 SJ ----- 15 --- 17 ---- 6 ----- 18 ---- 35 --- 20 Philly --- 16 --- 13 ---- 5 ---- 15 ---- 28 --- 24 Note that the teams below the line have a M# that is greater than the their PTL, therefore must have help (in the form of losses) by the team's above the line. REMAINING SCHEDULE Atlanta has New York (2), Philly (1) and SJ (1) has won the season series over Boston, Philly, SD and DC, leads the series with NY and SJ (applying GD tiebreaker). And lost the series to Carolina. Boston has Car(1), NY(1), SJ(2), DC(1) has won the season series over Philly and SD, leads the series with Carolina, NY, SJ and DC. And has lost the series to Atlanta. DC has Bos(1), Philly(1), SD(2), SJ(1) has won the season series over NY and Philly, leads the series with SJ. Has lost the series to Atl and Carolina, and is behind SD. SD has Car(2), NY(1), DC(3) has won season series over NY and SJ, leads the series with Carolina and DC. And has lost series with Atlanta, Boston and Philly. New York has Atl(2), Bos(1), SD(1) Carolina has Bos(1), Philly(2), SD (1), SJ(1) SJ has Atl(1), Bos(2), Car(1), Philly(1), DC(1) Philly has Atl(1), Car(2), SJ(1), DC(1) OTHER BEAT MAGIC NUMBERS Home Field advantage magic number = 8 Season Championship magic number = 10
Playoff Picture, Week 17 By Dan Lauletta http://wusa.com/press_room/375017.html 1. Atlanta Beat (9-3-5, 32 points): The Beat will soon have to break their team rule about discussing the playoffs because their presence in them for the third consecutive season is about to become official. It could happen as early as Saturday, depending on Atlanta’s result in New York combined with a few others from the week. To put it in perspective, the Beat would basically have to finish 0-4 and have at least one team chasing them run the table in order to miss. And allowing no goals in two games last week was a nice way to kick off a five-game road trip. This Week: Saturday at New York 2. Boston Breakers, (7-4-5, 26 points): Considering how the Atlanta defense has played of late, the Breakers should be at least a little bit happy to have taken a point away from Saturday’s contest against the Beat. And if not for Karina LeBlanc and a shrewd, goal line clear from Kristine Lilly, it would have likely been a loss. The pressure is not off though with the Freedom in town on Wednesday. A tricky scheduling challenge for the Breakers is a pair of trips to San Jose in the last three weeks. This Week: Wednesday vs Washington; Sunday at San Jose 3. San Diego Spirit, 6-5-6, 24 points): The Spirit’s win over the Freedom last Wednesday at Torero Stadium was among the club’s biggest ever. Unfortunately, the follow-up was a 1-0 loss at Carolina that leaves them still battling for position instead of gaining a position of strength in second place. The Spirit play three of their final four against the Freedom and Power, so more than anyone else, they control the path into the playoffs. The goal-scoring problem continues to exist though, and one must wonder how much longer they can hang around without scoring more often. 4. Washington Freedom (7-6-3, 24 points): Like the Spirit, the Freedom’s week consisted of a good game and a bad game. Losing in San Diego on Wednesday was not in their best interest, but it made Saturday’s 2-0 win over New York that much more crucial. Sometimes they still look like the top team in the league, but other times it still looks as if they are disjointed and at a loss for ways to attack in the midfield. The loss of Bai Jie to a visa problem created by the Chinese Army has hurt more and more as the season has gone on. Kelly Golebiowski’s call-up to the Australian national team this week will further deplete the Freedom's midfield corps. This Week: Wednesday at Boston; Saturday vs San Diego
Re: Re: Playoff Race & Magic Number AS OF JULY 28th THE STANDINGS Team --- Wins -- Loses -- Ties --Points Atlanta -- 9 ------ 3 ------ 6 ----- 33 DC ------ 8 ------ 6 ----- 4 ------ 28 Boston -- 7 ------ 4 ----- 7 ------ 28 SD ------ 6 ------ 6 ----- 7 ------ 25 NY ------ 7 ------ 8 ----- 4 ------ 25 Carolina - 7 ------ 7 ----- 3 ------ 24 SJ ------- 6 ------ 8 ----- 3 ----- 21 Philly ----- 3 ----- 11 ----- 4 ---- 13 PLAYOFF MAGIC NUMBER FORMULA GP = Games played PTS = Points won GL = Games left = 21 (games each team plays) minus GP PTL = Points left to win = GL times 3 (pts per win) PTP = Points Possible (total points a team can earn if they win all remaining games) = PTS plus PTL Magic # = the points needed to assure a playoff spot = PTP (of the current fifth place team-the playoff cutoff) plus 1 pt (to nullify any tiebreaker situation) minus PTS Team -- GP -- PTS -- GL -- PTL -- PTP -- M# Atl ----- 18 --- 33 ---- 3---- 9 ---- 42 ---- 1 DC ----- 18 --- 28 ---- 3 ---- 9 ---- 37 --- 6 BOS --- 18 --- 28 ---- 3 ---- 9 ---- 37 ---- 6 CAR ---- 17 --- 24 ---- 4 ---- 12 ---- 36 --- 10 _______________________________________ SJ ---- 17 --- 21 ---- 4 ---- 12 ---- 33 --- 13 SD ---- 19 --- 25 ---- 2 ----- 6 ---- 31 --- 9 NY ----- 19 --- 25 ---- 2 ---- 6 ---- 31 --- 9 Philly* --- 18 --- 13 ---- 3 ---- 9 ---- 22 --- 21 Note that the teams below the line have a M# that is greater than the their PTL, therefore must have help (in the form of losses) by the team's above the line. * PHILLY IS ELIMINATED FROM PLAYOFFS - Atlantas magic number is 1, because of the tiebreaker with Carolina (which Carolina wins), but for the most part Atlanta is in the playoffs. - Carolina ranks above SD and NY in magic number because of games left and possible points left to win. OTHER BEAT MAGIC NUMBERS Home Field advantage magic number = 5 Season Championship magic number = 5
Re: Re: Re: Playoff Race & Magic Number I think it's 4, actually, since the Beat have the tiebreaker against both the Freedom and the Breakers.
This just in, San Jose beat Carolina 2-1. While this prevents us from clinching a playoff spot right now, it increases the chances that Carolina doesn't get that fourth spot and face us in the first round. That race for the fourth playoff spot is so tight right now.
Can someone tell me how Atlanta has not yet clinched? I have not been able to find a scenario where Atlanta takes fifth given the current standings and the remaining matchups.
San D's entire season is quirky. They completed the series with Boston after their first 6 games. They didn't start the series with DC until they had 6 games remaining. Additionally, they completed the series against Philly in a 6-game stretch in the middle of the seaon.
I agree. Atlanta is in. However, has anyone seen a report anywhere confirming this? Big Soccer scoop, Atlanta is in the playoffs. Of course, we want to get home field for the first round and win the regular season title for the second time in three years.
I agree. The key is that Boston plays Carolina and San Jose in their last two games. The only way Carolina or San Jose can catch Atlanta is to win all their remaining games, but if they do that then Boston loses both of their games and can't catch Atlanta. And all three teams (plus Washington) would need to catch Atlanta to knock them down to fifth. So, congratulations, Beat! (I think they actually clinched the playoff spot with the Boston-San Jose tie last Sunday.)