120 Fahrenheit: Why Trading Ruiz Was A Good Idea February 17th, 2008 . By: Buzz Carrick http://www.3rddegree.net/
Not only does Buzz survive Daytona but he also has time to mathematically silence the fish lovers. What a workhorse... I'm talking about Buzz of course and not that lazy fish
It was pretty lukewarm apologia for a bad trade. If you're reduced to talking about "dollars per goal scored" in order to fluff up Abe Thompson at Carlos Ruiz's expense, then you should be working for the Texas Rangers, where they'll tell you about how great they're doing on a "dollars per win" or "dollars per HR" or "dollars per RBI" basis, as they finish last in the AL West again. "Dollars per goal" doesn't win you shit. It just means that you've got a guy making a crap salary producing the occasional goal.
Well, that's fine as long as you are willing to ignore the other arguments and the other stats he provides. How about goals per minute, ignoring salary altogether, and Ruiz still didn't produce as well as Abe freakin' Thompson. The whole crux of your argument against the Ruiz trade was that we would have to replace him....well, looks like that will be pretty darn easy.
If you think that that's the crux of my argument, then you haven't been paying attention. The crux of my argument is that Ruiz was not the problem and that trading him does little to solve that problem and in fact, makes the problem worse. We had a forward who was spectacular at finishing chances, but never got them in 2007, thanks to the fact that we did a really good job of getting rid of our main assist men in the 2006-07 offseason. So now we've got all this money, but if we now upgrade our midfield, we've got one guy who can finish the chances that our upgraded midfield can create, but a bunch of guys who haven't really demostrated the ability to finish a sandwich, let alone goalscoring chances. BTW, Carlos Ruiz and Abe Thompson were basically a wash on the raw goals/90 minutes. HOWEVER, Abe got two PK goals (both created by fouls on Dominic Oduro) while Ruiz got one (created by a handball in the box on a Toja shot). So from the run of play, Ruiz's output was better than Abe's, even if neither of them were anything to write home about.
At least you are in the position to be proven correct. If Carlos simply lacked service and that was all that was missing then you shall look like King Solomon the Wise after each Galaxy game. Carlos will be served by the best passer in all of the active soccer/football/futbol world and one of the best service men ever. If your case holds up and Beckham's health holds up then Carlos should set the MLS goal scoring record. It's only logical according to your stance.
Oh yeah, while it's not the crux of my argument, the fact that we traded Ruiz to a conference rival makes the trade even more intolerable. Landycakes and Becks were racking up the assists at a nice clip while mediocrities like Gavin Glinton and Edson Buddle and Carlos Pavon were at the other end of their passes. Now they've got one of the top scorers in this league's history at the other end of them. You could say that that's not an upgrade for them, but that would be a denial of reality. So we've made our team worse, while making our conference rival better and more likely to make the playoffs at our expense. What in that equation is supposed to make me happy?
That's not my stance. But it is my stance that he'll upgrade their goalscoring considerably. Last year, Landycakes was their leading scorer with eight goals in 2122, a total that would have many FCD fans calling for him to be traded, but I digress. Of course, when you look at whom they had playing forward, that's understandable. Now they've got Carlos Ruiz. Are you going to tell me that he's not an upgrade over Gavin Glinton or Edson Buddle or Carlos Pavon? And if you do accept that he is, how many goals does he have to score before Los Angeles is more likely to make the playoffs than we are? If Carlos Ruiz gets 10-12 goals and LA's in the playoffs while we're not, how does that trade look?
I admire Buzz for laying his case out now, as well as El Jefe. I think the stats done't tell much of a story, but they certainly can be used to make a strong argument. There are lots of factors that play into this, but the one that makes the most sense is that Ruiz was in the wrong place at the wrong time. I thought Carlos worked hard in the games and I still think he was easily our most dangerous asset. So I think Jefe's argument about giving him to LA is pretty powerful. The title of the article is interesting. I don't think Trading Ruiz is a "Good Idea" in so much as it may be "Part of a Plan". It may have the same end result, but it starts the discussion off in a distorted way.
I think none of us will know. I don't want it to happen but I suspect Becks will have injury problems again this season.
So there's a whopping one extra goal on PK's and that fact destroys the argument? Nice try. Point is your biggest complaint with trading Ruiz is that now FCD has to replace his production, and then improve upon it, in order to be competitive. Obviously Abe Thompson alone can replace most, if not all, of Ruiz's production, just by hustling and being more active than Ruiz was......and Thompson hasn't angered the entire cadre of referees to the point where he doesn't calls anymore. As far as getting those additional goals, I can make a pretty compelling argument to show why new tactics and a new formation will go along way to providing more production from the midfield. Combined with a solidified defense the issues this team suffered through in 07 will largely be erased.
You made the "Abe's scoring rate was better than Ruiz's scoring rate" argument, I refuted it. Don't blame me that it was a shake argument. If you want to make the argument that we should've been no comparison in the first place, then you're welcome to do that and it would've been a better argument. You're saying that Abe Thompson will get 12 goals this year? Really? Because that's what it would take to score as many as he did last year PLUS replace Ruiz's scoring, even if you don't consider Ruiz's total last year a fluke. That's pretty ballsy. As for not having angered refs, well, that's nice, I guess. I've watched a lot of mediocre players over the years and ripped them online, but I guess that I was too hard on them because at least the refs liked them. Go for it. I'm very interested in seeing it. Solidified defense?
Interesting theories Sir Buzz. But I am with El Jefe on this one, at least as far as this being a bad trade. In my opinion, Ruiz was affected not only by not having anyone to play in a decent ball, but also by not having a partner up top worth marking. Once Cooper went down, teams were able to overload on to Ruiz, letting players like Abe and Oduro have extra space and time. I also think trading him to a conference rival is dumb, but in MLS it's almost irrelevant what conference you are in these days with the playoff format. Yes he is lazy when games don't matter, but I don't think this organization has ever had a more clutch player. And until they bring someone in to replace him, I will remain disappointed with the trade. Abe, Oduro, Ricardino etc just aren't going to get it done.
No, Buzz made it, I repeated it, and all you did was say he scored one extra PK goal. That's not exactly Earth-shaking refutation. I'm saying it's not all that hard to replace Ruiz's meager production compared to the minutes he was on the pitch. You're the one saying that Ruiz is some impossible to replace talent. Nice....see what he did there, everyone. He ignored the actual point of the argument and then, illogically, turned the opposite end of the argument back at me. Well done, Dustin.....they learn you that down there in South Cackalacky? Excuse me for believing that a system that doesn't require the outside backs to be the ONLY source of wide attack is going to be more effective. Call me crazy.
The trade can only be assessed after Dallas picks up their forward. Buzz' contention (I think) was not that Abe is starting quality, but that Ruiz was producing at the level of a perrineal backup. Rather than wasting 400K on a player whose production has gone down for four straight years, doesn't train hard, doesn't provide leadership, and is a pain in the ass for the coach, they cut bait, got some salary cap room with the allocation, and will go sign someone else. I don't see anything wrong with that, just as long as they do sign someone else who is an MLS starter. Also, don't freak out with the names that are out there right now. Remember, last year we never heard about Toja or Ricchetti until the Brazil trip. I suspect we will have several players brought in by that scouting agency while we are down there, especially since both players had their contracts extended and got a raise. Word will spread pretty fast, and I am sure there are some forwards down there who are in simliar situations.
Let me explain math to you. When you state that A > B, and I show numerically that A <= B, then yes, that is a complete refutation. Sorry if you were just parroting Buzz. No, you didn't say that, you said (and I quote) So you're saying that Abe will score the five goals that he did last year plus the seven goals that Ruiz scored, just by "hustling and being more active than Ruiz was." Nice try bowing up about your supposedly superior Gainesville Tech education, but in case you didn't read what I wrote, I should let you know that I didn't ignore it. I stated that Abe Thompson will likely not replace Ruiz's production. And since you felt the need to state that the refs will like him more, I felt the need to tell you that it's mostly irrelevant. OK, you're crazy. At least you are without confirmation that our outside midfielders are actually going to track back and play some defense occasionally.
Not to turn this into a Ruiz vs Abe argument (although perhaps it already has) but I was just looking at the Plus/Minus stats on 3rdDegree... In MLS Games, Abe was first on the team with a plus/minus of +6 in 1,163 minutes of action... Ruiz was last on the team with -12 in 1,709 minutes of action. In all competitions, Abe was first on the team with a plus/minus of +11 in 1,474 minutes of action... Ruiz was last on the team with -13 in 2,298 minutes of action. I'm not saying that Plus/Minus is the best stat ever but wow!
If given Ruiz's minutes, Abe doesn't have to score 12 goals to replace Ruiz's production, he only has to score Ruiz's 7 goals... that is if you assume that the 5 goals Abe scored as a backup are now produced by Mina/Ricardinho or whoever else gets Abe's former backup minutes (which doesn't seem like a big stretch).
There is only two spaces to get in between our defense instead of three this year. x x x instead of x x x x Solid. As a Rock.
I can buy that Abe can get seven goals. But the second part of that? I don't know. And that doesn't even begin to explain how we add the goals on top of last year's craptacular total.
Ok, I'm not jumping on Jefe's side here but don't ever compare Abe to any top notch striker unless that top notch striker is a top notch striker in England's National league (division 5). Abe is so slow that it confuses defenders therefore leaving them scratching their heads (kinda like Drew vs Mexico).
Vested interest. As well intentioned as Buzz, Ruiz, or Morrow may be, the HSG model of skewing the equation is consistent. Trickle down causation is reality, and Wagner is light on passion metrics. Take that to your objective heart, Dustin. It's why I supported Ruiz going to LA. AEG is simply the more integrated model. Therefore, the only ethical thing to do is apply your vested interest where deserved. Then, hopefully, HSG will sell their soccer interests to a more AEG equitable co-op.
Abe needs to start if we don't get someone unquestionably better for well under DP money. talk about an underappreciated asset.