"Moneyball"

Discussion in 'San Jose Earthquakes' started by Honore de Ballsac, Dec 12, 2007.

  1. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    Or, as we say in the trade, TMDA!
     
  2. Honore de Ballsac

    Oct 28, 2005
    France.
    I understand what you're saying perfectly, but generally speaking MLS has worked their ass off to get undervalued pros in a world market for soccer players. They got Beckham to sign when his stock was low, then it shot through the roof. I don't doubt NY was trying to talk to Shevchenko, but I'd guess in the last two weeks his stock has risen again and that door may have closed.

    We worked all types of angles to get guys like Campos and Valderrama, who were high profile yet affordable players.

    What may be an MLS wrinkle in the "Mummy Doll" concept is that MLS has valued players like Campos, Valderrama and Beckham as much for their name recognition and drawing power as their competitive contribution. But still, from the MLS perspective they were very undervalued on the world market.
     
  3. TulkasTheStrong

    TulkasTheStrong New Member

    Jul 19, 2007
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Here's an idea Ballsac, one that I think you'll like.

    One of the larger thrusts of Moneyball was a re-evaluation of the scouting system. Here at least I think we can agree MLS needs help. In the book, Beane finds the scouts are easily swayed by a players appearance and his physical tools, rather than by his actual productions.

    The parallels to MLS are obvious. Here in the US, soccer players who are physically gifted are often "over-valued" over players who are technically gifted and not as physically gifted. Moneyballs approach would be to see if these undervalued players were in fact more effective, and would then pursue them and let other teams have the over-valued guys.

    Over and under valued in moneyballs terms isn't really about money, its about certain skills that people look for that may or may not actually cause success. Now to prove things like this (which facets of a player were overvalued and which were actually important), Beane used statistics, and I share your trepidation that this probaly won't work for soccer, though IlliniZizzo's work is first rate.

    I think Moneyball's translation to soccer will/should include things like this, getting players with less physical tools or odd body shapes (think Blanco) but with high soccer IQ's and better skills. And I have a hunch that there's many guys like this who are quite "undervalued" compared to many players today. Our recent YA in Mexico who couldn't get a sniff at the NT for being too small comes to mind, yet he's doing very well now.

    Anyway, that's my take on the situation, I'm sure it could be expanded more.
     
  4. clashcityrocker

    Mar 12, 1999
    In the shadow of RFK
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Alright, this thread is getting way too smart for this board.

    This is all I have to say about Moneyball:

    Don't know about Moneyball, but yo Momma calls me Moneyballs.
     
  5. cristoforo7

    cristoforo7 New Member

    May 14, 2003
    A more interesting question to me is: Will Beane or any of his MLB disciples actually get involved in helping analyze potential players for the Earthquakes? If not, will Beane or another guy with the A's at some point work on developing a more "logical" or statistical system for evaluating potential or current MLS players?

    The answers are probably "No" and "No", because they are too busy on the baseball side of things, but Beane's expressed interest in soccer leaves me unsure as to whether he will get involved himself (or get one of his worker bees involved) in the soccer side of things.
     
  6. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    I think this will happen eventually, but again, I think it's a long-term project, both in terms of Beane and company getting dug in and in terms of actually getting to a point where you think you might add value with this type of analysis.
     
  7. sj_oldtimer

    sj_oldtimer Member

    Nov 18, 2005
    Clovis CA
    As others have already posted, MLS managers are already pretty well versed in the concept of getting the most from the dollars they spend. If anything, baseball might learn a little from soccer. I might find the comparison of MLS to MLB more interesting if MLS clubs were spending anywhere near the amount of money that MLB clubs spend. MLS player budgets are in the petty cash box in MLB offices.
     
  8. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    If you can find a better way to determine value, I think you'd want to do it, no matter how meager your cap is. But the stakes are much much higher in baseball when you can literally save $100 million off of your annual payroll if you are very smart about finding undervalued players. So one would think that there would be more activity in the area of quantitative methods in Europe, where the stakes are high. And I get the impression that there is, certainly more than MLS, where at this point there's probably about zero application of quantitative methods to determine player value, and probably nowhere near the availability of statistics that there is in Europe.
     
  9. sj_oldtimer

    sj_oldtimer Member

    Nov 18, 2005
    Clovis CA
    I agree wholeheartedly. It's obvious in MLS that only a select few have the real skills to effectively place a competitive team on the pitch every year. The actual dollar value in MLB is obviously much larger than in MLS. Plus, the baseball "network" is far more advanced. In soccer, I think a manager can still "discover" a player. That isn't going to happen in baseball.
     
  10. The Wee Man

    The Wee Man New Member

    Jul 11, 2003
    San Jose
    The real deal here is that fans don’t honestly know what the successful soccer organizations have in place for player scouting, team scouting, game analysis (your team and the opposition), player development, team development, statistics, eye for talent assessment, player improvement just to name a few of the challenges. The reason that fans don’t hear about the systems in place is that successful teams keep it quiet and don’t want the opposition to know what they are doing.

    To have a complete robust system the League and the opposing teams have to sign up to ensure the basic components are available league wide. For example, to be able to track and analyze ALL games you have to agree that all games must be recorded on film. Usually a good TV contract puts this in place by default, but if not, it must be accommodated for, by the individual club.

    I would also like to say the net result of all of the above is winning championships with the main goal being performance in the playoff, where it really counts. If that is not your clearly defined goal you are kidding yourself and your fans. Winning, is what it is all about. The 49ers had it and let the edge slip based on personnel changes and have never been able to bring it back. The same could be said about the Raiders, but again, based on constant personnel changes they have let it slip. In the case of the A’s and the Giants, it has simply been too long since they have had it. The Sharks have never had it and the Warriors only saw a glimpse of it before they broke up the organization (but I think they are close to getting it back). The Earthquakes had it and it transferred on to Houston. The combination of San Jose and Houston without question rivals the greatest 49er years of triumph. The records don’t lie.

    To give you a glimpse behind the scenes, the Earthquakes had in place in 2002 – 2004 a system that allowed a coach could to look at both electronic and video data broken down to the level of how many times an individual player touched a ball in 90 minutes. What he did with each of the possessions, what was the result of the possession was, if he passed it who did it go to, was it the right or left. How did this affect the overall team shape and flow of play and how did that line up with the pattern we were trying to play.

    An individual player would be handed a CD of just his touches to allow him to study and improve his game in private. The overall viewing of the team concept and how individual mistakes break this down could be viewed collectively. To study how an upcoming opponent has played in their last 3 games and their team pattern of play it can be shown in full color printouts with tendencies standing out clearly. Your coaches and players can view not only film but also data points on set patterns of team play and in defined restart situations.

    A Silicon Valley database company pioneered the first cut of this software, the Earthquakes were an early adopter and MLS was the first customer. It has since been implemented and customized around the world. Meshing raw data points with soccer knowledge of how to describe and collect the correct data points is the key. In a league wide arrangement everyone has access to the data. There is enough Data Base wisdom in Silicon Valley to improve on any basic Database system and how individual teams use or improve their access is up to the team.

    I would again like to stress that the meshing of soccer knowledge with the data is hugely important. I can assure you that based on the English Premiership’s agreement with Sky sports, Sir Alec Ferguson at Man U. has the ability to see (from 8 different camera angles) much more than just a film of his, or his opponents, game. How he views it, how he analyzes it and what he does with it is down to his soccer knowledge including transferring that data to his players.

    I realize that my explanation here does not even touch areas such as scouting or the handling of players. It does not touch on areas of getting the best value for your players or getting undervalued players to your Club but we brought in these type of tools in an effort to be ahead of the opposition. We realized that we needed tools to do all of these things well. I hope that by this description I have let folks understand that we knew what we were doing. The driving force behind it all is the clear knowledge of what you are looking for, the desire to be open minded in the search for the tools to get you there, the absolute commitment that the reason behind doing this, is to win, and the realization that nothing other than winning counts.

    If you don’t win, you failed, end of story.

    I don’t know how things have improved since 2004 in MLS and around the World, but I presume there have been great improvements.
     
  11. porkrind

    porkrind Member+

    Quakes
    United States
    Sep 27, 2001
    Bostonia
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Here's an interesting take on Slate: http://www.slate.com/id/2180070/nav/tap3/


    Basically suggests that Beane may have "looked the other way" and simply waited for the top sabermetrics scorers to "develop their power" over time, ie. sculpting a 'roid-enhanced physique.
     
  12. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    Very interesting stuff, Wee Man. I had no idea that there was this level of sophistication going on behind the scenes. I can only conclude that the Quakes had already been practicing "Moneyball" to some extent, and that there's more to it than just finding players with "heart".

    Another interesting part to me is "An individual player would be handed a CD of just his touches to allow him to study and improve his game in private". One thing that tends to get glossed over in the discussions about finding "undervalued" players is that players are not static entities. They can get better or worse while they play for you. Were Brian Ching and Brian Mullan just undervalued players who were "discovered" by the Quakes, or were they valued about right, but improved while with the Quakes, or is it some combination of the two? I'm sure it's a combination, but I think there's a tendency, when talking about Moneyball kinds of strategies, to forget that players are not automatons.
     
  13. The Wee Man

    The Wee Man New Member

    Jul 11, 2003
    San Jose
    I always feel that players who are “team players” are also the guys who push themselves the hardest to improve individually, in order to not let their teammates down. There is, in my opinion, an under appreciated factor concerning the mentality of the “bust your ass” type of players. Their attitude is based on a lot of factors such as, not being a starter but fighting your way in, being rejected by an other team, coming into a team oriented positive environment, realizing that you have a chance to be part of something special and positive, knowing for that to happen, you must improve their own game first. They happily accept the responsibility of “being part of” and understand that they must produce, in order to “be part of”.

    Brian Mullen, Chingy, Dero and Ricardo Clark are outstanding examples of guys who worked incredibly hard to improve their game. All four became National Team players after tough starts. All four still run themselves into the ground each game because they know what that is what it takes. All four can be counted on EVERY time the lace on the boots. The good thing is that other guys on the team learn from them.

    Let’s take Chingy for an example, he vastly improved his game with all the little things like making the great well timed runs, both back post or front post runs. His ability to create separation on defenders by putting on the brakes and checking his run while defenders are ball watching on the run. In other words he manages to get himself open and unmarked when it counts. That takes thought process and understanding not just hard work. I am a huge fan of all of these guys because I know what they went through to get where they are. They had great coaches who worked with them, great teammates who drove them on, but they ALL studied their own game and made it better.

    Fan’s think that these players get paid to play but they don’t. They get paid to win and the players that figure that out quickly become outstanding players and good teammates. These guys figured it out but there are too many guys who never do so.

    Responsibility is a two way deal. The player has to improve individually and the Club has to give him the environment that creates and rewards improvement. This combination creates consistency. Chopping and changing helps nobody. Looking over your shoulder takes you eye off the target. Consistency and hard work win things.
     
  14. sj_oldtimer

    sj_oldtimer Member

    Nov 18, 2005
    Clovis CA

    Thanks for these posts. They really show us that what we get to watch is far more than just a game....nothing is happenstance or arbitrary. A team like San Jose/Houston is a well choreographed situation, from start to finish. It's a very special thing when it all comes together.
     
  15. NedZ

    NedZ Member+

    May 19, 2001
    Los Gatos
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    My thanks, also, this is very instructive stuff. I think it also sheds light on the hiring of coaches and assistant coaches and scouts. Is a guy hired just because he is an old crony? Because he has a 'reputation' or was a star player? Because he has an eye for talent? Because he works hard, or has a good attitude? Because he has good technical skills, or is good with young player development? Of course the perfect coach would have all the qualities, but perfection never exists.
    Ruud Gullit and Cobi Jones will be the Galaxy coaches. Hmmmm......
     
  16. clashcityrocker

    Mar 12, 1999
    In the shadow of RFK
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Man, if Lew Wolff hasn't already called up Wee Man and offered him fat bags of loot to join the Quakes, his head is full of ********ing rocks.
     
  17. Albany58

    Albany58 Member+

    Sep 14, 1999
    Concord, CA USA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Well, apparently, he hasn't called. Could the reason be that Quakes FO does not want to hire people with gray hair?
     
  18. spejic

    spejic Cautionary example

    Mar 1, 1999
    San Rafael, CA
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    There was an interesting article in Slate recently about baseball "Moneyball". Basically, it turns out the reality of Moneyball was that expensive power hitters never learn to hit high percentage, but cheap high percentage hitters can add power through steroids.
     
  19. smpfi65

    smpfi65 New Member

    Jun 18, 2004
    BySoLeDaDsTaTePriSoN
    I wonder if Doyle has mentioned anything or has brought up Johnny's name, gee I wish he would be named into some kind of position there with the new FO, I say we start a thread on that topic ! ! ! ;)
     
  20. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    I think that was also referenced in another thread as well. I think it's a silly and unfair notion, that Beane and company were basing their stategy on power through steriods. They're more interested in the base on balls. That was one thing they stressed throughout the system, selectivity at the plate. It was one of the keys that allowed them to find undervalued players - conventional baseball wisdom had undervalued the base on balls.
     
  21. sko16

    sko16 New Member

    May 2, 2007
    Israel
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    Israel
    I resurrected this thread for one ironic purpose: I want everybody to shut up about it. It's barely soccer-related and it's really getting on my nerves. It seems like every time I want to read your guys' opinions about everything and I want to read Quakes-relevant news, but it seems like I have to sift through pages of nonsense about "moneyball" before I get to the meat. I realize why it's relevant to the club but post after post about what it means and why it works or why it's shite is reallllllly boring. It's cool if you guys discuss it, but in the midst of interesting threads? Let's leave it in threads like these entitled "Moneyball: Boooooorrrrrrring ahead!"

    Am I alone here?:)
     
  22. Honore de Ballsac

    Oct 28, 2005
    France.
    Not entirely.

     
  23. JazzyJ

    JazzyJ BigSoccer Supporter

    Jun 25, 2003
    In a forum like this, threads are often going to go on a tangent or in a direction that you're not interested in. That's the nature of the beast. And, not everyone is interested in the same things, or finds the same things boring or interesting. When "Moneyball" comes up it's usually in the context of a strategy for getting good value in player selections. Do you want to spend less on a younger unproven player or more on a proven vet, do you want to bother looking at data like possession time, etc.

    In the general sense, these kinds of discussions are all part of the player selection strategy debates that go on all the time in this forum, "Moneyball" or not (e.g. "Dude, we should totally rake south america for creative dudes"). And player selection strategy is one of the most interesting and relevant topics here, especially given that the Quakes are still in the process of building a roster.
     
  24. Roblar

    Roblar Member

    Sep 15, 2000
    The 73072
    So well said, it bears repeating.
     
  25. sj_oldtimer

    sj_oldtimer Member

    Nov 18, 2005
    Clovis CA

    Obviously, the nature of these boards is to have threads wander off into the woods on occasion. Yeah, some of it is not interesting to everyone (sometimes no one). Of course, too many messages means that those who are viewing this at work should probably be working instead of wandering through off topic threads at BS.
     

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