23 months for Vick. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3148549 He's already started serving his sentence, so he's probably got 22 or so to go. Assuming he can behave in prison and get his sentence reduced and assuming he's not given any more time for the state charges, he's looking at being out for 2008 with a chance of training camp for 2009 (roughly 18 months puts him in the summer of '09). He might just play again (if someone wants him).
So is that an "average guy off the streets" 22 months, or a "Paris Hilton" 22 months? My money is on the latter; he'll be out in six.
I think he'll serve 12-14 months on the federal sentence, and will be convicted by the state of VA for an additional amount. He'll never play in the NFL again.
[holy music] BABY BRIAN COHEN: [crying] WISE MAN #1: Ahem. MANDY COHEN: Ohhh! [whump] Who are you? WISE MAN #1: We are three wise men. MANDY: What?! WISE MAN #1: We are three wise men. MANDY: Well, what are you doing creeping around a cow shed at two o'clock in the morning? That doesn't sound very wise to me. WISE MAN #3: We are astrologers. WISE MAN #1: We have come from the East. MANDY: Is this some kind of joke? WISE MAN #2: We wish to praise the infant. WISE MAN #1: We must pay homage to him. MANDY: Homage? You're all drunk. It's disgusting. Out! The lot, out! WISE MAN #1: No-- MANDY: Bursting in here with tales about oriental fortune tellers. Come on. Out! WISE MAN #2: No, no. We must see him. MANDY: Go and praise someone else's brat! Go on! WISE MAN #2: We-- WISE MAN #1: We were led by a star. MANDY: Or led by a bottle, more like. Go on. Out! WISE MAN #1: Well-- well, we must see him. We have brought presents. MANDY: Out! WISE MAN #2: Gold. Frankincense. Myrrh. MANDY: Well, why didn't you say? He's over there. Sorry the place is a bit of a mess. Well, what is myrrh, anyway? WISE MAN #3: It is a valuable balm. MANDY: A balm? What are you giving him a balm for? It might bite him. WISE MAN #3: What? MANDY: That's a dangerous animal. Quick! Throw it in the trough. WISE MAN #1: No, it isn't. MANDY: Yes, it is. It's great, big mmm... WISE MAN #3: No, no, no. It is an ointment. MANDY: Aww, there is an animal called a balm,... or did I dream it? So, you're astrologers, are you? Well, what is he then? WISE MAN #2: Hmm? MANDY: What star sign is he? WISE MAN #2: Uh, Capricorn. MANDY: Uhh, Capricorn, eh? What are they like? WISE MAN #2: Ooh, but... he is the son of God, our Messiah. WISE MAN #1: King of the Jews. MANDY: And that's Capricorn, is it? WISE MAN #2: Uh, no, no, no. That's just him. MANDY: Ohh, I was going to say, 'Otherwise, there'd be a lot of them.' [sniff] WISE MAN #1: By what name are you calling him? [holy music] MANDY: Uh, 'Brian'. WISE MEN: We worship you, O Brian, who are Lord over us all. Praise unto you, Brian, and to the Lord, our Father. Amen. MANDY: Do you do a lot of this, then? WISE MAN #2: What? MANDY: This praising. WISE MAN #2: No, no. No, no. MANDY: Er, well, um, if you're dropping by again, do pop in. Heh. And thanks a lot for the gold and frankincense, er, but don't worry too much about the myrrh next time. All right? Heh. Thank you. Good-bye. Well, weren't they nice? Hmm. Out of their bloody minds, but still. [WISE MEN leave] Look at that. Hoo hoo hoo. [WISE MEN return and grab presents] Here! Here! Here, that-- that's mine! Hee. Hey, you just gave me that! Oh. [whump] [holy music] BABY BRIAN: [crying] MANDY: Shut up. [smack]
Yup, sitting out for 2-3 seasons is going to wipe him out, he will loose his conditioning, finesse, and sharpness. Too bad, he was fun to watch.
AFAIK, federal inmates generally serve about 90% of their sentences, likely 20 months here. In any event, we'll soon be able to check for ourselves: http://www.bop.gov/iloc2/LocateInmate.jsp http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/abstract/tspfo97.htm "The proportion of the sentence to be served by offenders entering Federal prison increased ... to about 87% during 1997." http://www.optimum.net/News/AP/Article?articleId=361857 "Federal rules governing time off for good behavior could reduce Vick's prison stay by about three months, resulting in a summer 2009 release."
Since he started serving roughly early November 2007, that backs up to early July 2009. NFL training camps started late July this year. I figure if he can get in a full training camp, there will be a team willing to take a shot on him. Putting Vick on as your 4th QB only hurts if you're afraid of him taking the #1 slot for some schmo you have on a long-term contract.
Vick Takes big hit While the 2 currencies are close in value now, he'll never make NFL-size income: "the Atlanta Journal-Constitution estimated that Vick has incurred financial losses of $142 million, including $71 million in Falcons salary, $50 million in endorsement income and nearly $20 million in previously paid bonuses."
Re: Vick Takes big hit His Contract really is the kicker. That is reason. He got hooked up with sentence. 23 months for felonous gamabling and tax evasion and what ever else with misdemeanor dog fighting charges. Thats some cake time and he will easily still have 10 Million Dollars left over. He is set no matter what. One year is great but five straight years is world domance where I'm from.... State destruction criteria set on overload...
There might be a dumbass owner who does it...after all, there are 32 teams. But really, let's say you get MICHAEL VICK (talented player) to be your deep backup rather than Joe Schmoe Backup. And let's say you choose Vick at normal 3rd quarterback (I don't think ANY team carries a 4th QB on the roster...maybe the taxi squad, but not the regular roster) salary, and you pass on JSB at normal 3rd QB pay. I think those are pretty solid hypotheticals. So the value of Vick over JSB is in how much value Vick as a 3rd QB brings to your team over a JSB type. IOW, very little value...they're 3rd stringers. They don't play often. Now, consider the PR hit your franchise takes for employing Vick. I cannot fathom a situation in which it's a rational choice for an owner, except if there's a team whose fan base revels in being outlaws (i.e., the Raiders, I guess.) Even then, keep in mind that if Vick diminishes the value of a franchise by 1% (which seems, frankly, low to me), that's gonna be in the mid-7 figures for most NFL teams. It's obvious the value he brings is far less than the value he takes away. And that's not even getting into the distraction issue. No, Vick is going to have to either rely on an irrational owner, or he's going to have to rehabilitate himself in Canada or Cuban's league for a few years. I've used this analogy before, but it's even more pertinent now. The Panthers' season has gone totally into the toilet as they lost their average QB, Jake Delhomme, to injury, and David Carr has well and truly sucked, and Testeverde has been only marginally better. Still, I don't think that if it was 2009 now, Richardson would think for a second about signing him. The fallout of the Hornets, Carruth, and Fred Lane makes it a no hoper. And even without that history, I think it's unlikely Richardson would ever consider signing Vick.
You're forgetting that clubs routinely keep 4 QBs in the PRESEASON. Now, if you've got a "repentant" Vick you give him a make-good shot that doesn't even really cost you a roster spot, and if he turns out to have gone to the dogs , you release him. If he shows the Michael Vick Experience in preseason, there's probably plenty of fans of 3-13 teams willing to believe the man's been redeemed. Of course, he'd have to be available in the preseason. As a mid-season pick up, I'd side with your analysis.
Same point, though. Just SIGNING Vick that soon is gonna be a massive, massive PR hit. How many fans are going to protest by not going to preseason games? And that stain will take years to clean off, if Vick sticks on the roster. Again, if the value of the franchise goes down *1* percent, that's millions of dollars.
The republic of ADD will have forgotten all about Bad Newz Kennels by 2009-2010. Fer crap's sake Miami re-signed Ricky Williams....
No way in hell any NFL owner will touch Vick after serving time for executing dogs. It's just not going to happen. Vick's NLF career is over.
The Raiders have 4 qbs on the roster right now... McCown Culpepper Russell Andrew Walter Just sayin... The thing working against Vick is that he needs Al Davis to cheat death for two years.
sounds like he woulda been a natural for the XFL. Or perhaps as part of his probation, he should have to play for the Red Dogs of arena football?
Vick could still play. The PR battle is there for him to win, it'll just cost him a boatload of money. I doubt he'll be anywhere close to the same athletic level when he comes out, but for the sake of argument if he were and he'd gone through some sort of prison conversion, then funded human societies to the tune of millions a year, he could be a hero. All of that is unlikely, but people are pretty forgiving and they love publicity stunts.
That's only true if his agent somehow convinces Mr. Goodell to allow him to serve his inevitable NFL suspension concurrently with his prison sentence. I'd say '10 or '11 is more likely.