Drawn in Durban on 25 November. 9 groups - 8 of 6 teams, 1 of 5 teams. Top in each group to finals. 8 best runners-up (based on a comparison excluding results against any 6th placed teams in the group) play off for 4 more spots. Key now is seeding. Based on Edgar's work, it may look something like this. Code: R Country EST OLD C ---------------------------------- 1 Italy 1498 1 - 2 Spain 1349 3 - 3 Germany 1296 2 - 4 Czech Republic 1290 6 - 5 France 1243 5 - 6 Portugal 1241 4 - 7 Netherlands 1170 7 - 8 Croatia 1129 11 UP 9 Greece 1114 9 - ---------------------------------- 10 England 1113 8 DOWN 11 Romania 1088 10 - 12 Scotland 990 12 - 13 Turkey 914 14 - 14 Bulgaria 879 17 - 15 Sweden 864 20 UP 16 Russia 861 13 - 17 Poland 855 15 - 18 Israel 849 21 UP ---------------------------------- 19 Serbia 842 18 DOWN 20 Norway 831 19 - 21 Ukraine 811 22 - 22 Denmark 786 24 - 23 Northern Ireland 784 16 DOWN 24 Republic of Ireland 739 23 - 25 Finland 699 25 - 26 Switzerland 663 26 - 27 Belgium 595 32 UP ---------------------------------- 28 Slovakia 592 30 - 29 Hungary 581 28 - 30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 578 27 DOWN 31 Moldova 573 31 - 32 Macedonia FYR 555 29 - 33 Wales 553 33 - 34 Belarus 552 36 - 35 Lithuania 542 35 - 36 Cyprus 502 34 - ---------------------------------- 37 Georgia 407 37 - 38 Albania 397 38 - 39 Slovenia 396 39 - 40 Latvia 392 40 - 41 Iceland 384 41 - 42 Armenia 370 42 - 43 Austria 354 43 - 44 Kazakhstan 294 46 UP 45 Liechtenstein 261 45 - ---------------------------------- 46 Azerbaijan 248 44 DOWN 47 Estonia* 225 47 - 48 Malta 185 48 - 49 Luxembourg 127 49 - 50 Montenegro 65 50 - 51 Andorra 59 51 - 52 Faroe Islands 13 52 - 53 San Marino 6 53 - R is new rank; EST is Estimated FIFA ranking, Old is the rank before tonight's matches. C is the change in the Pots due to last night's games. Estonia has a * because the analysis missed they had a friendly last night, but they drew so it should be roughly okay. J
You can delete the *. When I posted the "new and improved version", I mentioned it was updated after the November 20th matches (including Uzbekistan - Estonia).
Serbia got the EURO qualifier against Kazakhstan postponed because of snow , and will play the match on Saturday 24 November. Serbia would be in seeding group 2 with a win on Saturday ? Could they protest against the seeding if they base it on November ranking published on Friday?
No, they wouldn't be in pot 2, as Kazakhstan is ranked 122. I don't think they can protest - it's not FIFA's or UEFA's fault.
Serbia would go to 857 points with a win against Kazakhstan, but as you can see link, my software gave Serbia 23 points more than FIFA did. So I'm pretty sure Serbia wouldn't go to the second pot even with a win against Kazakhstan.
FIFA ranking out now . Pots are like EDGAR and JLSA predicted , just a few small differences. Azerbaijan avoided lowest seeding group. http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/r...fullranking.html#confederation=27275&rank=163
Interesting. From intuition I would still put England into the first pot and Greece into second. Switzerland is stronger than it's ranking and also Montenegro, they are by far the best team in 6th pot, belonging one or two pots higher, but are newest FIFA-member, so have to make their way from bottom up. From the first pot, Greece is clearly the easiest pick. Second and third pots are almost even, while England should better be avoided, despite of all, they will be very motivated now. From 4th and 5th pot I wouldn't like to get the Balkan teams nor Slovakia, as those are always capable of "surprises", which are not that much surprises as they have decent technical skills, not much less than those in 2nd and 3rd pot. Concerning last pot I think that Montenegro, Estonia and Luxemburg (in this order) will make more troubles than the other minnows. My Croatia is for the first time top-seeded and IMO, also belongs there now. Israel is in second pot, for the first time and that's also OK, a good side, always improving. All in all, the seeding is correct,with England and Greece exchanging places and Montenegro one or two pots higher, would be perfect. Eventually next time.
I agree that this is the most logical way to compare the runners-up (and also used the last time: WC 2006), but I can't find anything about how they determine the best runners-up in the regulations. Where did you read that they will do it this way, or do you just assume they do it this way. Other ways are also possible. In the past they have only taken into account the 6 matches versus the 1st, 3rd and 4th placed teams (Euro 1996, WC 1998, Euro 2000). PS: For other tournaments since 1994 it was not needed to compare runners-up as all runners-up either qualified directly (WC 1994, Euro 2008) or all played play-offs (WC 2002, Euro 2004).
Pot 1 Italy Spain Germany Czech Republic France Portugal Netherlands Croatia Greece Pot 2 England Romania Scotland Turkey Bulgaria Russia Poland Sweden Israel Pot 3 Norway Ukraine Serbia Denmark Northern Ireland Republic of Ireland Finland Switzerland Belgium Pot 4 Slovakia Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Moldova Wales FYR Macedonia Belarus Lithuania Cyprus Pot 5 Georgia Albania Slovenia Latvia Iceland Armenia Austria Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Pot 6 Liechstein Estonia Malta Luxembourg Montenegro Andorra Faroe Islands San Marino My Group of Death would be: Italy Turkey Ukraine Hungary Georgia Malta and my group of..."life": Greece Israel Belgium Cyprus Armenia San Marino
Mine is Netherlands (Anyone except Greece) England (might not be much better than Romania, but the name does have a value when talking G.O.D) Serbia (other than England & Romania (maybe Sweden at the top) and Belgium (at current form) at the bottom, pots 2 & 3 teams are mostly interchangeable) Slovakia (next is Bosnia) Austria (by far the best pot 5 team, second choice is Slovenia) No pot 6 team (if I'm force to pick one it would be Estonia) For me it is: Greece Israel (first two are easy choices) Belgium (but they are due to return to form so Northern Ireland or Finland might also be considered alternatives). Moldova (good run since August has not sold me yet) Azerbaijan San Marino (this one is also a easy pick)
group of death: Germany (interchangable, but I'd pick us because of our traditional rivalry with England) England (despite recent problems better than the rest) Switzerland (not so impressing recently, but they picked strong opponents for their friendlys, and they were impressing in the world cup) Slovakia (or Bosnia or Wales for the clashes with England) Slovenia Montenegro group of life: Greece (surprise ^^) Israel (but I wouldn't underestimate them) Belgium (been a while since they had a decent nt) Lithuania (don't know too much about most of the pot... Cyprus were pretty strong in the German group, however) Kazakhstan (or Azerbaijan) San Marino (interchangable)
The lowest pots (especially 5) are tricky. From watching most of group A matches for the EC's, I can safely say that Kazakhstan are MUCH better than the Azeris. I wouldn't want to have the Kazakhs in my group as the pot 5 team. Same goes for Armenia - they're very good at home and can take points off anyone, even a pot one team. And with the way the qualifying is set up for the WC 2010, no team can afford have points taken away from them by the supposed minnows, 'cause if you don't win its on to the playoffs, where you never know what can happen. And one second place team won't even make it to the playoffs!
And, Pot 3 teams, even though not as good as Pot 2 teams, can still challenge for the play off spot, especially Denmark, Finland, ROI, and perhaps Switzerland.
so will i be able to watch it live somehow in new york. fifa.com said that they are broadcasting it but then said something about it being shown in the following countries and it wasnt listed...its at ten am ny time right?
"Death" Germany England Ireland Slovakia Slovenia Montenegro "Life" Greece Isreal Belguim Belarus Azerbaijan San Marino
Hardest Italy England Denmark Bosnia Slovenia Estonia Easiest Greece Israel N.Ireland Moldova Azerbaijan San Marino
I'm not asking this right, but I can't figure out a simple way to ask the questions; If there is one group that has one team fewer than the rest, then the second place finisher in that group will have (two) fewer games in which to score points. How, then, can that team's point total be compared to the rest to determine which is the "worst" second place team? I'm sure this has come up in some qualifying system before, so there must me some provision for it.