Even though most of the UEFA contenders struggled this week, it looks like Everton will need to win 1 more game to feel reasonably comfortable of making the UEFA Cup. The remaining schedules: Everton, 54 pts, 15 GD:..........Man Utd.........Portsmouth...@ Chelsea Bolton, 54 pts, -3 GD:........@ Chelsea.......@ West Ham.......Aston Villa Reading, 51 pts, 6 GD:...........Newcastle........Watford......@ Blackburn Portsmouth, 50 pts, 5 GD:.......Liverpool......@ Everton.........Arsenal Tottenham, 50 pts, -1 GD:...@ Middlesbro....@ Charlton........Blackburn.......Man City If the teams play to their home/away form, we should see: Bolton: 57 or 58 pts Everton: 57 pts Reading: 57 pts Tottenham: 56 or 57 pts Portsmouth: 51 or 52 pts
Reading and Spurs are the danger. Spurs are 4th in the form table over the last 8 games (although we are fifth), and have a pretty easy schedule. I can see them getting to 58, along with Bolton, which means we are qualifying over Reading only on GD. Beating Pompey is a must for us, but we also probably now need help to qualify. Root for Blackburn! They can take points from both Reading and Spurs.
I'm hoping for a draw vs ManUre. But if Middlesbro can earn a tie at Old Trafford, who knows what we might be able to scratch out at Goodison.
That word erks me. It's a draw . I think that's a quite realistic assessment. I think 3 points will be enough, but 2 points won't. It's quite obvious then from looking at the fixtures that we need to beat Portsmouth. It's lucky we have such a good goal difference, since otherwise I'd see us needing four from these games. Having said that 8th will still get us Intertoto, which we are almost guaranteed. It's so close. Fantastic end to the season.
Given our shaky start in the Champion's League a few years back, I kinda think an Intertoto bid could end up being the best outcome. The Toffees would be able to (hopefully) beat up on a Latvian team or the like in the Intertoto, and then move on into the qualification stages of the UEFA Cup and beat up on some more teams from lesser leagues. That way, by the time we reach the actual UEFA Cup, the Toffees will be in prime fighting mode.
Still seeing one of two possible storylines playing out over the last three matches: 1) AJ sits out v ManYoo, Beattie channels Duncan Ferguson (in the good sense), draw v Portsmouth, clinch a straight-up UEFA Cup spot. or 2) Everything goes boom. Lose to ManYoo, choke when the pressure's on v Pompey and get the customary end-of-season tonking at Chelsea. Slide to the Intertoto and get mauled by another Romanian side.
Good Dunc: Bad Dunc: I miss him. Gotta beat Pompey, but I wouldn't be surprised to see us get a point off United either.
I think it's as simple as Steffen Freund being a niggly, dirty player and annoying Dunc one time too many. Couldn't have happened to a nicer guy.
And forego nearly 2 million quid (the prize money between 5th and 8th???!)???!?! We should aim to finish as high as we can. Anyways, I think 1-0 will do. O'Shea own-goal
There was no bad Dunc. He vented my frustration on the pitch when we lost, made me feel a lot happier when he went mad.
Things aint going right! P'mouth beat the red shite, Reading are beating Newcastle!!! Even if we beat P'mouth, it may be Bolton (easy run in), Spurs (easy) and Reading (easy run in) that go to Europe instead of us!! After it all looked so rosy b4 the Hammers game.
Update as of Tuesday, May 1: The remaining schedules: Bolton, 55 pts, -3 GD:............@ West Ham.......Aston Villa Everton, 54 pts, 13 GD:...........Portsmouth....@ Chelsea Reading, 54 pts, 7 GD:...............Watford......@ Blackburn Portsmouth, 53 pts, 6 GD:.......@ Everton.........Arsenal Tottenham, 53 pts, 0 GD:.......@ Charlton.........Blackburn.......Man City
If Everton beat Portsmouth, the Toffees are assured of going to Europe, though it could be via the Intertoto. The clubs that finish 5th, 6th, and 7th directly qualify for the UEFA Cup. And the 8th place club will qualify for Intertoto. There's also a possibility (not sure how likely) that a 9th EPL team can qualify for Europe via the "fair play" route.
It's very unlikely. Firstly there's a draw of about 10-15 nations to determine which nation (possibly two I think) recieve the fair play spot, and then if England are chosen in the draw, the team with the least disciplinary points (who haven't already qualified for Europe) get the spot, and have to go through one or two extra qualifying rounds for the Uefa Cup. I'm just having a look at the bookings/sending offs for the season. Unsurprisingly Blackburn the Bolton have the worst records, followed by West Ham. Liverpool, Villa and Reading have the best records, we're somewhere in the middle. It's starting to look like a tough task though. Even if we do beat Portsmouth (and lose to Chelsea), I can see Spurs getting up to 59 and Reading to 58, so we might have to rely on Bolton's bad form (four games with no win), although they'd only need one win from the remaining two.
I agree qualifying directly for the UEFA Cup is starting to look iffy. But if the Toffees beat Pompey, they will be assured at least an Intertoto spot (and thus a way of eventually getting to the UEFA Cup). However, if we lose to Portsmouth, I would think we'll finish out of the money for Europe, more likely than not.
Yeah looking at it, anything less than a win against Portsmouth, we can pretty much kiss Europe Goodbye! Although it is possible to get a result as Chelsea, the reality is that it is highly unlikely! It would be a real shame for us to miss Europe after all that hard work! Injuries have certainly buggered us up in the second half of the season! And that's where the difference in Depth of squad comes into it! After our best 11, our squad tends to thin out a fair bit and in a long season, the depth of your squad makes or breaks you!
Unless, of course, Bolton gets the obligatory New Manager Bump™. Everton have done the job when it absolutely, positively mattered before (Coventry, Wimbledon) at the bottom. I wonder if this current crop can similarly rise to the occasion with Europe on the line....
Portsmouth is much better at home then on the road, and they won't have Sol Campbell. But I'll stick with you guys and be pessimistic....
Everton is back in 5th after today's win over Pompey coupled with Bolton's loss to West Ham. Way to go Toffees!!!! [result]BTW, Reading surprisingly lost to Watford [/result]