don't look now but Mainz has only lost 2 of their last 10 games. If you look at trends, Bochum, gladbach and Frankfurt are most hurting. If gladbach can win some of the games they are drawing, they will pull themselves out. My biggest concern would be teams like BVB and Aachen who have shown the propensity to lose games they should win. That could be the key.
And you say that after a weekend that Aachen beat Mainz! My concern with BVB is that there's possibly no more good morale left on that team. They always talk about what they have to do, but then you never see the effort on the pitch. This past weekend against Cottbus was the first time I've ever seen Ebi Smolarek's level of effort be so poor. The only time he did anything in the match was a shameful dive in the box I think he should be suspended for. So many problems and most start with management. BVB could easily be relegated if they don't get their shit together. Saturday's match in Bochum will tell us a lot.
The same in Mönchengladbach ... except for the Bielefeld, Bremen and Wolfsburg games. Can you imagine how happy the DSF will be in the case that both Borussias would be relegated?
Agreed. If you look at BMG over the last 10 games, they are drawn against some very good teams. They have just been unlucky not to have won certain games, and to have drawn others. They are perhaps the best relegation team, record-wise. But that usually don't mean shiite. I wish them the best. Would rather see Aachen and Wolfsburg go down.
DSF would be the only ones happy. The DFL itself wouldn't want to lose the crowds at Westfalenstadion and Borussia Park in the 1. Liga. But it's up to the clubs. Both of our teams have to f#cking put up or shut up. They have no excuses.
Yeah. I know what you mean. BMG are getting their really tough matches out of the way. BVB have matches coming up with Bochum, Bielefeld and Aachen that are "must wins" to me. I think at the least they have to win two and draw one. Our run-in after that is brutal.
I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder, but BMG would be better off with BVB's schedule. Gladbach's last 10 games include Schalke (1st), Stuttgart (3d), Bayern (4th), Leverkusen (6th), Hertha (7th), and Hannover (8th), with Schalke, Bayer and Hannover on the road. So fully 3/5 of their schedule is against the top 8 teams in the league, and half of those games are on the road. Three of their final 10 are against 3 of the top 4 teams int the league. Throw in the fact that they also have two of the hotter cellar-dwellers on their schedule in Hamburg (home) and Mainz (away) and I'd say that's a pretty tough run-up. BVB, on the other hand, only plays 5 of the top 8 (and only 2 of the top 4). It plays Bochum and Frankfurt just like Gladbach does, but then gets Bielefeld, Aachen and Wolfsburgh (compared to Gladbach having to play the streaking Hamburg and Mainz). I wouldn't call that brutal, at least compared to what Gladbach is facing. Edit: I'm editing this for a more "scientific" analysis. I've paired the 10 teams on the Borussias schedules by their current position (trying to match up position by position). Here's what I get: Gladbach Opp./Dortmund Opp./Tougher Opponent Schalke/Schalke/Push Stuttgart/Bremen/Dortmund Bayern/Nuremberg/Gladbach Hertha/Hertha/Push Leverkusen/Leverkusen/Push Hannover/Wolfsburgh/Gladbach Hamburg/Aachen/Gladbach Mainz/Bielefeld/Gladbach Frankfurt/Frankfurt/Push Bochum/Bochum/Push Result is Gladbach has the tougher opponent 4 times, Dortmund 1, and 5 common opponents. Tougher schedule: Gladbach. Now if I adjusted for home and away, here's the way it would work: Schalke A/Schalke H/Gladbach Stuttgart H/Bremen H/Dortmund Bayern H/Nurember H/Gladbach Hertha H/Hertha A/Dortmund Leverkusen A/Leverkusen A/Push Hannover A/Wolfsburg A/Gladbach Hamburg H/Aachen A/Gladbach (I think HSV home is tougher than AA away) Mainz A/Bielefeld A/Gladbach Frankfurt H/Frankfurt H/Push Bochum H/Bochum A/Dortmund Result is Gladbach has the tougher opponent 5 times, Dortmund 3 times, and 2 pushes. Tougher schedule: Gladbach.
Interesting analysis. However, please don't forget that you have no "easy" opponents in BL... Dortmund defeated Bayern and lost to Cottbus. Gladbach reached draws against Bayern & Bremen and sucked against teams like Bochum, Aachen and Cottbus.
I think that proves if you want to bend something to fit your opinion, you can do so if you like. I'll try my way. And I don't need "science". Just who they play and WHEN. And I'll tell you in advance. You were right about one thing. I might have been wrong in calling BVB's total run-in "brutal", but I still think ours is "brutal" compared to theirs despite an even 10 match week to week comparison. You will see why below. Week 25: BVB is at Bochum, Gladbach hosts Hertha. Tougher match in my opinion, Gladbach. No question. Form comes into question in every match and Hertha is in better form than Bochum. Week 26: BVB hosts FCN, Gladbach travels to Leverkusen. Tougher match in my opinion, Gladbach. No question. I'd call it even, but Leverkusen are much tougher at home and while FCN may well beat BVB, BVB did come out of Nuernberg this season with a 1-1. But this is not the same BVB team. Week 27: BVB travels to Bielefeld, Gladbach hosts Frankfurt: Tougher match in my opinion, BVB. You may think I'm crazy, but I think this past weekend's victory over FCN will give Bielefeld the confidence push it had earlier in the season and BVB hardly ever wins there anyhow. Gladbach are at home where they are strong and should beat Frankfurt. Week 28: BVB travels to Aachen, Gladbach travels to Schalke: Tougher match in my opinion, Gladbach. But believe it or not, just barely. Why? Schalke are not in the form they've shown most of the season, but Gladbach can't seem to win on the road. BVB has back to back road matches and Aachen are hell at home. Just ask FC Bayern. If I were wearing my Black and Yellow glasses right now, I could easily make a case for this being tougher for BVB, but I won't do that. Tougher for Gladbach. Week 29: BVB hosts Bremen, Gladbach goes to HSV: Tougher match in my opinion: BVB. Why? Because Bremen will be in a title fight. HSV, while on a winning streak, have not played that well. They have been more lucky than good in my opinion. A Gladbach team fighting for their lives could surprise them. If I didn't say BVB, I'd make this one a tie, but I really feel BVB will have a tougher time getting any type of result than Gladbach will at HSV. And, I didn't even mention that Bremen will want revenge for BVB upsetting them at home earlier in the season. Week 30: BVB travels to Berlin, Gladbach goes to Hannover. Tougher match in my opinion: BVB. Hertha will be fighting to get back into a UEFA Cup place, as will Hannover, but despite the 5-0 or 5-1 thrashing Hannover gave Hertha in Hannover in January, I think Hertha at home will be tougher than Hannover at home. Week 31: BVB hosts Frankfurt, Gladbach hosts Stuttgart: Tougher match in my opinon: Gladbach. Stuttgart will either be fighting for the title or to stay in a CL spot. Frankfurt and BVB will be a killer relegation battle, but there is no way I will sit here and say Frankfurt will be tougher on BVB than Stuttgart will be on Gladbach. However, if I were just trying to make my own point, I could............ Week 32: BVB travels to Wolfsburg, Gladbach hosts Bayern. Tougher match in my opinion: Gladbach, no question. Even though they are strong at home and could pull the upset, there's no way I'm going to say Wolfsburg is tougher than Bayern. NOW!! Here is why I called BVB's run-in BRUTAL and I still stick by it!!! Week 33: BVB hosts Schalke, Gladbach goes to Mainz: Tougher match in my opinion: BVB, no question. Ruhr Derby. Need I say more??? Week 34: BVB travels to Leverkusen, Gladbach hosts Bochum: Tougher match in my opinion: BVB, no question. 10 matches. 5 weeks I think Gladbach has the tougher matches, 5 weeks I think BVB has the tougher matches. While it may not come down to these two to see who stays up, I think it does show that this horribly out of form BVB team needs to find their form and quickly to win the points they need to clinch safety in the next five to seven weeks, because in those final two weeks, their chances of taking points are very slim. See how much your personal opinion matters when doing crap like this???
Thank you. There's definitely that too, which I alluded to in referring to some teams' current form and the fact that Bielefeld should get their self-confidence back with that big win over FCN this past weekend.
so true...and the fact that relegation teams are MUCH tougher to play than higher up teams during March/April. something about having your back against the wall causes them to fight MUCH harder.
For some reason I think it will be, Mainz, Bochum and Moenchengladbach. I respect BMG, but think, unfortunatly, ths year they will drop. The crazy thing is, at the begining of the year, or at least 1/4 of the way through i woud of said Hamburg, Hannover and Energie would all fail to stay up. It is good to note that I would not, nor am I, surprised at HSV's turn around. his was a team that has potential, and I would of been shocked had they dropped.
Very hard to say ... Is the downward momentum of Bielefeld and Frankfurt stopped or just interrupted by last weekend's results? Is the upward momentum of Mainz stopped or just interrupted by last weekend's result? Will the upward momentum of Hamburg be stopped if they lose their next two matches (which I think is not unlikely)? Most likely seems Gladbach at the moment, simply because they have the worst starting point right now. Very unlucky for the Gladbach fans because you don't have to go down with team like this, but it seems that the shit keeps sticking at their boots throughout the whole season. I think Bochum and Cottbus will survive because of their experience in relegation battle, Mainz propably as well. Aachen I'm not sure about. Bielefeld and Frankfurt: I think at least one of them will go down, maybe even depending on the results of their next two matches (will they stop or continue their downward motion?). Hamburg: I live near Hamburg and really nobody here talks about relegation any more. Very dangerous, because IMO their latest victories were a mixture of good luck, doubtable referee calls and a world class van der Vaart (who might miss next match vs. Leverkusen due to injury). I still don't believe they'll go down, if vdV can play for the rest of the season, otherwise they are my #1 pick for relegation. BVB: Even though they play way below the level they should I don't see them going down, simply because of their class. Same with Wolfsburg, to get Marcelinho in the winter break was a great move and propably will be the reason why they will be safe even three or four matches before end of the season. Having said that, my picks are: Gladbach, Bielefeld and Aachen
I think it will be Gladbach, Bielefeld, Mainz or Aachen. I really cant see us ending up down there. We had huge amounts of bad luck this season and many injuries on key players, but this team is still way too good and too compact to actually be relegated! Next next two games in Nuremberg and against bayern will be tough, we will probably still be in "the zone" after those 2 weeks, but after that we have a pretty easy programm and within the last years we have allways gotten our points against "easy opponents"... Gladbach looks really bad, but thats no surprise when you get Don Jupp as a coach... Everything else is still wide open. Its just a feeling that I have thart Bielefeld and Mainz will get into the struggle now... I dunno. Wouldnt be surprised tough if Dortmund actually ended up relegating... That would make for a thrilling 2nd division next season! With Köln, Lautern, 1860, Düsseldorf maybe coming up and Gladbach and Dortmund relegating! Wow!
For my money it is very close, but I would have to say BMG has the easier schedule and here's why with who has the easier schedule in (): BMG has 6 home games, 4 away; BVB has 4 home, 6 away (BMG) BMG has 3 games against Top 5 teams, 2 of those at home; BVB has 3 as well with all three at home (BVB) BMG has 3 games against Bottom 6 teams, 2 at home; BVB has 4 games left against Bottom 6 teams, only 1 at home (BMG as we know that relegation teams fight VERY hard late in the season AND b/c many of the Bottom 6 teams are on rising form right now) BMG has 4 games left against mid-table teams, 2 at home; BVB has 3 games left against mid-table teams, 0 at home. (BMG since most mid-table teams have little to fight for and BMG has more of these games at home) BMG's form over the last 10 games is better 1-5-4; BVB's form is spotty at 3-0-7. (BVB only barely given they have by 1pt the better record, but BMG with more draws appears to be "in" more games than BVB). For me it will come down to injuries, form for BVB and BMG, AND the form/situation of teams they play. We all know as teams become "safe" (i.e., no chance for UEFA play or relegation) they are easier to beat. So I see this comparison as dynamic given how close the teams in 10th-18th place are. I cannot recall when a relegation race has been so tight. It has likely been a long while.
Well, dude, one thing I haven't mentioned here that has to be considered is that the atmosphere at BVB right now is rotten. The fans are fed up with the players, the players don't seem to care and the management is just plain clueless and that's who the players seem to take their cue from. Some of the leading players can't be happy with management right now for the underhanded way management has dealt with Christoph Metzelder and the underhanded way management did deal with Bert van Marwijk. We have a saying in the military. "Shit rolls downhill." Well, all is totally s#itty in Dortmund at the moment and it is all definitely coming from the top........ I think BVB are the team in the relegation race with the most internal turmoil. And that cannot be good for our chances.
I don't think one has been since 1998-1999. I think I have that season right. It's the season FCN fell from 12th or 13th to 16th on the final day. Remember that? That was the day FCN thought they were safe because of goal difference and only one unlikely scenario could relegate them and it happened. The main thing being Frankfurt beating Kaiserslautern by four goals (5-1)?? FCN fans still think Eintracht paid FCK to tank that match, but I remind them that Eintracht didn't have nearly enough money to compensate FCK for the UEFA money they lost. That loss knocked FCK out of a CL spot, which was taken by BVB.
Of course. If I had a crystal ball that could predict accurately who would win what game, don't you'd think I'd use it? If I had that crystal ball, don't you think that I'd be writing this from the tropical island I bought with my gaming winnings rather than from snowy Pittsburgh? On any given day, Bayern can lose and Bochum can win. But face it, the chances of Bayern winning are a hell of a lot better than the chances of Bochum on any given weekend. My analysis is based upon subjective probabilities, hence the use of quotes around "scientific."
Well, if you had told me that your definition of a "run-in" was the final two games, I wouldn't have bothered spending the time on my post. As for your analysis versus my analysis, mine is what it is--a snapshot in time, that time being now. I can't predict the future, not do I assume what the future might look like. Your approach appears to be a week-by-week prediction, making assumptions about team and opponent form (Bielefeld will be revitalized, for example). If you want to predict results on a week-by week basis, let's do that. Looking at the schedule, and trying to be as unbiased as possible, I think BVB will win, tie, lose, tie, tie, lose, win, tie, lose, and lose, for a total of 10 points. Gladbach will tie, lose, win, lose, lose, lose, lose, lose, lose and win, for a total of 7 points. Tougher schedule: Gladbach. P.S. I hate being pedantic about this (aww, who am I kidding), but a having "run-in" is what we are doing right now; a "run-up," which is chiefly a British expression, is a period immediately preceding an action or event (see http://www.m-w.com/cgi-bin/dictionary?book=Dictionary&va=run+up). I don't see how "run-in" could ever be used properly in this particular context; on the other hand, if one were to assume that the event in question here was the end of the season, the last ten games (or two games) could properly be described as a run-up.
I call BS on this one. Bad teams are much tougher to play than good teams? Please, do not ever accompany me to Vegas. What you're trying to say is this: teams at the bottom of the table are highly motivated to avoid relegation. I don't disagree with that, as a general proposition. But are we to assume that the "higher up" teams aren't highly motivated? I disagree. They are highly motivated, to finish first, or finish in a CL spot, or finish in a UEFA spot. So you have a highly motivated "higher up" team and a highly motivated "relegation team." Which team is more likely to be a tougher challenge? There's a reason that the "higher up" team is higher up, and the "relegation team" is in the relegation zone. It's called talent, attitude, momentum, spirit, usw. Your theory might hold water with respect to those middle of the table teams which are certainly "higher up" than the relegation teams but have nothing to play for . . . except there is no middle of the table this season. You are either competing for Europe, or you are relegation threatened.
Home games: true, but you don't take into account who the opponents are. A home game against Bayern is likely a tougher game than a road game at Bochum, for example. Home games against top 5 teams: BVB gets them all at home; advantage BVB. Home games against bottom 6 teams: the bottom six is kind of arbitrary, since there 10 teams that are threatened with relegation, but I'd rather play bad teams than good teams, regardless of location (good teams play hard too, and they have more talent; your comment about "rising" teams makes my point, not yours--the only two relegation candidates who can legitimately be said to be rising are Mainz and Hamburg, teams that Gladbach plays and BVB doesn't). Games against mid-table teams: there are no mid-table teams this season--you are either fighting for Europe or fighting to avoid relegation. The line is drawn at Hannover. I suppose that one could argue that Hannover is a one-team middle of the table this season. Gladbach in better form: this is a team that's won one game this year, and last won at home in October. It's also 7 or 8 points behind Dortmund, so I have a hard time with the concept that Gladbach is in better form.
I see it a bit differently. I think you discount BMG's last ten games and the fact that they are drawing many tough matches which you have them losing. BMG only has 3 games in the last 14 where they were not either drawn or withing 1 goal. THAT is a close record. BVB has 4 such games AND has spotty form. I think you are discounting BMG's form and home stance much more than you should. BVB is MUCH more inconsistent than BMG. As far as the schedule comparison, I think the edge goes to BMG with the more home games. VfL Bochum-Borussia DortmundDBorussia Dortmund-1. FC NürnbergLArminia Bielefeld-Borussia DortmundWAlemannia Aachen-Borussia DortmundDBorussia Dortmund-SV Werder BremenDHertha BSC Berlin-Borussia DortmundLBorussia Dortmund-Eintracht FrankfurtWVfL Wolfsburg-Borussia DortmundLBorussia Dortmund-FC Schalke 04DBayer Leverkusen-Borussia DortmundL2-3-4Borussia M'gladbach-Hertha BSC BerlinDBayer Leverkusen-Borussia M'gladbachLBorussia M'gladbach-Eintracht FrankfurtWFC Schalke 04-Borussia M'gladbachLBorussia M'gladbach-Hamburger SVDHannover 96-Borussia M'gladbachDBorussia M'gladbach-VfB StuttgartDBorussia M'gladbach-FC Bayern MünchenL1. FSV Mainz 05-Borussia M'gladbachLBorussia M'gladbach-VfL BochumW2-5-3
If you read the post, you will see I do take that into account. Also, Bayern has SUCKED away this season while BMG has been VERY steady against tough competition, especially at home. Where is the flaw in my logic? I think I said as much. "Good" teams do not play hard if they have nothing to play for. BMG plays Frankfurt, Hamburg, Mainz and Bochum...my guess is all but HSV will be relegation candidates at the time BMG plays them. HSV will be out of trouble by then and eaiser to play. AND BMG has 3 of 4 of those games at home. How can you honestly say that is not a BMG advantage? Conversely, BVB plays Bochum, Frankfurt, Aachen and Bielefeld...only ONE of those is at home. BVB has sucked on the road. You honestly think the advantage is to BVB on this one? As you said earlier, this is a snapshot in time. As matchdays progress, those Mid-table teams will be come more secure from relegation with no clear hope of playing in Europe. They WILL be come easier to play. Well, its a simple: BMG's record over the last ten games has them 1-5-4. that means they were "in" 5 games which could have gone either way. They drew with Bayern in Muenchen, had a brief rough spell with Bochum and Cottbus (both road games), only to rebound well we drawing against the likes of Bremen and Nuernberg. This demonstrates that BMG is good at home against tough teams. Add to that BMG has allowed 4 goals in 6 games (2 against the best attacking team in the BL) is all pretty impressive. BVB, as I pointed out above, has been less than impressive away AND at home...never knowing which BVB team will show up. Given they have more away games and have had crappy away form, they can hardly be seen as favorites. Not saying they will get relegated. But compared to BMG I am not sure you have much to complain about.