El indecido me molesta, si no me quiero, Transfer Thead 2016

daedalus · Jul 21, 2016

mebeSajid said: ↑

Buy the player that Wenger thinks is better for Arsenal. If Icardi can run in behind and also hold up the ball, he'll do well at Arsenal.
Click to expand...

how many people can really both hold up the ball and run in behind? i mean, in theory, those seem opposing tasks. at his best, i think van persie was able to link up before running behind but did he really hold up the ball?

as footykid said, though . . . if we have all the ball control/playmaking players on the pitch, we don't necessarily need another. we COULD use a poacher whose main interest is going to get that goal. i think that was why walcott was so successful, as you mentioned previously, while cazorla was available.

plus, wenger has been looking for that poacher for eons.

mebeSajid said: ↑

Don't disagree with any of that, but if Higuain costs more, and is five years older, and when Icardi apparently played on an Inter team with a dysfunctional midfield, then the analysis changes a little bit. If the two players were the same age, I'd agree with you. But Higuain is over five years older, and will likely only be good for three years. And he won't cost less than sixty million quid. I'd rather get a player who'll be around for a lot longer for 40.
Click to expand...

i am not remotely advocating higuain over icardi, please don't get me wrong (i have seen a tiny bit of higuain and literally none of icardi so i'm ignorant as f' on THAT discussion) . . .

but IF the more expensive fellow who has less shelf life (AND lower/no resale) was able to get us over the hump and get us the league and get us further into CL, wouldn't the difference in "cost" be paid for by the success both in actual (prize) money and intangible (higher value for both transfer prospects AND sponsorships)?

daedalus · Jul 21, 2016

mebeSajid said: ↑

I seriously doubt we go after Benzema - he might be in jail!
Click to expand...

but that would lower his cost! a perfect wenger buy!

daedalus · Jul 21, 2016

footykid said: ↑

I personally don't think it would cost us that much to win a domestic double for example. CL is a different beast. Every club has dead weight, but we are missing out on regular income by being soft on players. We are poorly managing our prospects, Chambers should have been the emergency CB last season so this season we could loan him out to a goodish team to get some week to week experience. Instead he'll get like 5 appearances in the league this season lose two seasons of development and then be derided as not good enough.

Second we don't need a Higuain, we need a striker who can do a few very specific things. Wenger's inability to make use of specialists is killing our ability to make shrewed purchases. Not everyone on the field needs to be a football savant, a player who knows where to be and when to be there is in our case going to be more useful and cheaper than getting that world beater. Instead we are picking up players who are great except for this very specific and noticeable weakness for slightly less than market value. Its times like this that I wish Wenger had more experience with limited players. Who is the most limited player he's had to work with as a starter? How hard can it be to find a striker who only wants to make 10 yard runs between the CBs, and wants to the ball over his shoulder or on the ground?
Click to expand...

i . . . can't agree more. on BOTH points.

poetgooner · Jul 21, 2016

Gunning4Chelsea said: ↑

Absolutely
Kroenke is a danger to every fan. He really worries me.
Click to expand...

If nothing else, with him, we'll always be financially stable. There will never be a Glazer scare, Portsmouth downfall, or a Liverpool financial stagnation under him.

poetgooner · Jul 21, 2016

Well, if anyone was hoping for Gotze

http://www.espnfc.com/soccer-transf...eal-to-re-sign-mario-gotze-from-bayern-munich

The Jitty Slitter · Jul 21, 2016

lynesjc said: ↑

Not picking on you, just using this as an excuse to talk about transfer policy costs vs. benefits.

Outline of CL payouts
Last year's EPL payouts
This year's EPL projected payouts under the new deal

It's a little hard to put these numbers into perspective at the moment given the volatility of the GBP. But the main takeaways are this:

Winning the CL this past season was worth around 94m euros (78m GBP) depending on which country you're from.
Finishing in the CL spots in the EPL last season was worth between 93-100m GBP.
Finishing in the CL spots in the EPl this season is estimated to be worth between 132-146m GBP. (In a sense, the Xhaka signing was "free".)

As we all know, the round of 16 appears to be our CL ceiling. Strictly speaking, making it one step further to the QF's is only worth an incremental 6m euros (4.9m GBP) in prize money. Having two more televised matches would also probably result in more tv market pool monies being earned, and there's also the additional match day revenue from having an additional home fixture. I can't calculate those, but I don't think it gets you anywhere near 25-30m euros.

Now, we've heard reports about how Leicester City sold tons more shirts and booked tons more stadium tours last season during their epic run. Same thing with Iceland this summer (shirt sales, tourism boost). But I don't know how much upside the top clubs like Arsenal really have in this regard.

Let's say we had done the double last season, winning the CL and the EPL. The difference in domestic payout would've been 1.2m GBP. The incremental CL prize money would've been at least 28m euros (23.2m GBP), not accounting for variance in tv money pool between England and Spain and incremental match day revenue from a couple more home games. Let's call it 26m GBP for argument's sake.

So, total incremental revenue for Arsenal last season from doing the double would've only been worth roughly 27.2m GBP. I think we can all agree that the squad needed substantially more than 27.2m GBP worth of signings to make that happen, and still does .

From a purely financial perspective, you can see how the law of diminishing returns quickly begins to manifest. And this is where the difference in perspective between the owners and management of the club and those of its supporters comes into focus.

Ask each group this question: What is the purpose of the Arsenal? I think Kroenke and Gazidis would answer "to achieve high levels of success both on the field and off of it." The supporter answer is far more direct: "to win trophies."

Neither side is wrong and both have a point.

Does it make sense to spend 200m GBP on transfers to gain an incremental 30m GBP worth of revenue? In the short-term, maybe. Over the longer-term that is unsustainable. I also believe there is limited upside to the commercial revenue given that we're already near the top of the class on shirt sponsorships, match-day revenue, etc.
Click to expand...

Great post!

Sadly this comes up every year and is easily debunked when you look at Chelsea's rather stagnant financials.

Despite having won stuff they are in the same boat as Arsenal - i.e also rans.

I would add the following additional points

1. Commercial revenue is largely just a function of the TV audience. As Scudders builds the value of the rights globally, so the value of the primary sponsorships increase. Arsenal just rides the gravy train on that.

2. There is only extra commercial value in being the Man Utd of your league - and now demonstrated by the key Adidas sponsorship. The same thing is shown in germany with Bayern. There is no opportunity for Dortmund to become Bayern 2 in their domestic league. It's not a market position.

The exception to this is City who have a strategic position based around Abu Dhabi's global ambitions.

So basically from a business point of view, Arsenal just surf the Scudamore wave.

Gunning4Chelsea · Jul 21, 2016

I don't like this Wanda .
Icardi is Italian for Doug Christie ?

MilesW · Jul 21, 2016

AEAAFC96 said: ↑

I'll say this about Pogba: Love him, but if anybody thinks United will win the league if they have Pogba, they're insane.

Payet did much more for France than Pogba did. Sissoko did what Pogba should've done against Portugal.
Click to expand...

It's not so much the player but rather the amount of money involved. It just makes the whole things seems less "fun" I guess.

gunner0007 · Jul 21, 2016

Did anyone watch the Wenger interview? Anything new?

crazy150 · Jul 21, 2016

has anyone said it lately? Fcuk this window! I feel better

gunner0007 · Jul 21, 2016

Oh, and may as well squash those Icardi rumors.

Messi Minutes @MessiMinutes
Icardi:

"I'm here, and I'm happy here, I say that all the time. My contract at Inter is to 2019. They're my team." pic.twitter.com/0zgXY9kYMg

Messi Minutes @MessiMinutes
Icardi:

“My entire family's objective is to stay in Milan...I'm happy in this city, as are Wanda and the kids." pic.twitter.com/HsGv63ZvwG

TxTechGooner · Jul 21, 2016

would anyone WANT Icardi or any of these other spares? he would be a depth signing, not a title winning type player sadly.

mebeSajid · Jul 21, 2016

TxTechGooner said: ↑

would anyone WANT Icardi or any of these other spares? he would be a depth signing, not a title winning type player sadly.
Click to expand...

No title winning striker is going to move this window. Unless Lewa goes to Madrid.

TxTechGooner · Jul 21, 2016

mebeSajid said: ↑

No title winning striker is going to move this window. Unless Lewa goes to Madrid.
Click to expand...

I'd make a run at Lukaku..
we are always a few steps behind actually title contenders when it comes to transfers post Highbury.

it's incredible how far we are behind Chelsea when it comes to the buy and stash game.
Buy young talent, stash them at clubs all over Europe, bring back the ones that come good. They've certainly messed it up by selling top talent, but at least they bought them in the 1st place and made huge money on their sales.

Who is supposed to play CB for us next season? we only have 1 guy who can be relied upon... maddening.

elessar78 · Jul 21, 2016

NorthBank said: ↑

Liked your post. But on that last sentence it left me wondering are we really "top of class on shirt sponsorships"? Even if we're close, surely we're not top of class on shirt sales, right?
Click to expand...

I read that as we're with the top group. Yes, we're "with" the United and Real's in sponsorship but they're still beyond us and there is a tier below us.

elessar78 · Jul 21, 2016

lynesjc said: ↑

Not picking on you, just using this as an excuse to talk about transfer policy costs vs. benefits.

Outline of CL payouts
Last year's EPL payouts
This year's EPL projected payouts under the new deal

It's a little hard to put these numbers into perspective at the moment given the volatility of the GBP. But the main takeaways are this: . . .
Click to expand...

Your post blew me away for it's greatness, so I linked to a fellow supporter who is not on BigSoccer. He pissed on your masterpiece because you used "shirt sales" as a metric—which he says is a debunked myth.

I apologize. Our fellow fans are assholes.

The Jitty Slitter · Jul 21, 2016

mebeSajid said: ↑

No title winning striker is going to move this window. Unless Lewa goes to Madrid.
Click to expand...

No way does Bayern let Lewa go to Madrid

Why would they?

Gunning4Chelsea · Jul 21, 2016

The Jitty Slitter said: ↑

No way does Bayern let Lewa go to Madrid

Why would they?
Click to expand...

Only if lewandowski's agent forces the move for 26 mil eur in annual wages and real meets bayern' astronomical transfer fee

Unlikely

mebeSajid · Jul 21, 2016

TxTechGooner said: ↑

I'd make a run at Lukaku..
we are always a few steps behind actually title contenders when it comes to transfers post Highbury.
Click to expand...

Disagree. Think Lukaku's first touch makes him a liability for the way we play.

it's incredible how far we are behind Chelsea when it comes to the buy and stash game.
Buy young talent, stash them at clubs all over Europe, bring back the ones that come good. They've certainly messed it up by selling top talent, but at least they bought them in the 1st place and made huge money on their sales.

Who is supposed to play CB for us next season? we only have 1 guy who can be relied upon... maddening.
Click to expand...

Agreed as to all of the above.

MisplacedSpainard · Jul 21, 2016

We are looking to be properly f'ed for years to come unless we get a new manager after Wenger with the strength to make the club run in a different direction. Just like time value of money. Your brand and image is something that must be managed and the club are painting quite the terrible image.

mebeSajid · Jul 21, 2016

MisplacedSpainard said: ↑

We are looking to be properly f'ed for years to come unless we get a new manager after Wenger with the strength to make the club run in a different direction. Just like time value of money. Your brand and image is something that must be managed and the club are painting quite the terrible image.
Click to expand...

That's harsh dude - the club's image hasn't changed. Changes will be necessary once Wenger retires, especially for the youth setup, and some division of responsibility will be necessary because too much is on Wenger now.

But the club doesn't have a terrible image by any means. It's just irritation during the transfer window that's talking.

TxTechGooner · Jul 21, 2016

I think a trio of:

Sanchez - Giroud - Aubameyang

with

Xhaka-Ozil-Ramsey (Cazorla/Wilshere)

that at least puts you in the conversation. now who plays CB?
another issue..

charlie15 · Jul 21, 2016

elessar78 said: ↑

Your post blew me away for it's greatness, so I linked to a fellow supporter who is not on BigSoccer. He pissed on your masterpiece because you used "shirt sales" as a metric—which he says is a debunked myth.

I apologize. Our fellow fans are assholes.
Click to expand...

Very good article addressing transfers myths. It also touched on shirt sales...

http://thesetpieces.com/features/transfer-window-myth-busting/

DaPrince84 · Jul 21, 2016

MisplacedSpainard said: ↑

We are looking to be properly f'ed for years to come unless we get a new manager after Wenger with the strength to make the club run in a different direction. Just like time value of money. Your brand and image is something that must be managed and the club are painting quite the terrible image.
Click to expand...

It's not just Wenger.

Kroenke and the Arsenal ownership the last decade have been perfectly fine with getting close but not good enough. It's a long con.

MisplacedSpainard · Jul 21, 2016

DaPrince84 said: ↑

It's not just Wenger.

Kroenke and the Arsenal ownership the last decade have been perfectly fine with getting close but not good enough. It's a long con.
Click to expand...

I agree but someone has to stop it.