I'm going to have to think about this one myself, before I cast a vote. New England seems like the likely choice, but we all know what they did down the stretch last year, so maybe it's not that simple. I realize my "editorial comments" to the poll are confusing. Haven't had my coffee yet. The poll is about who IS NOT going to make it, not who will. My bad.
Good poll, you beat me to it. I'm going to have to say DC United. Although they have looked (at times) like a much better team this year than other years when they have missed the playoffs, I just think that Ray Hudson's MLS career is meant to end soon; and missing the playoffs for the third consecutive year will seal the deal. I think (and hope, since I like the Crew) that the Buddle-led Crew are finally getting back to the April cohesion we enjoyed several months back. That leaves New England. Hell, these guys could miss the playoffs just as easy as DC, it all depends on who plays the best down the stretch. What needs to be taken into consideration is that DC got 6 of their points in a recent home-away series with a struggling New Enlgand (remember "the comeback?") If those teams meet up for that series in a different part of the season, DC doesn't get away with those six points and DC takes New England's place in the cellar. But I could "if-that-but" all day long. It all depends on who gets/stays hot. Columbus (knock on wood) seems to be coming around. Who's it going to be, DC or NE?
Columbus (4th place; 2 pts up of Revs) has 4 out of 7 on the road remaining, one each against division foes. Three points from this weekend's home Burn game is a must for the Crew. DC (3rd place; 4 pts up on Revs, 2 up on Crew) has a game in hand, and 4 out of 8 at home. Last game at home versus a fading KC (who knows how they'll be playing then). Could easily come down to that, and you'd have to favor them in that matchup. But next two games are SJ at home and LA on the road; probably need a point or two at least from those games to keep apace. NE (last place) with 4 of 7 at home, and a game on the road at Dallas. 3 points v. the Crew at home on 9/28 would seemingy be a must. Two games away to Metros will be extremely tough, especially this weekend w/o Twellman. In summary: DC, 4 points up with a game in hand, a huge plus. Crew must get 3 points this weekend v. Burn, and then scrape for points with 4 of next 5 on road. NE has to hold serve at home with 4 out of remaining 7 at home, with key game v. Crew at home on 9/28.
DC United has that magic for missing the playoffs. The Crew are finally healthy so they should make move up the standings. With the Crew, Fire, and Metros almost locks for the playoffs the leaves it down to the Revolution and United. I have more faith in the Revs ability to get a point than I do in United finishing the season strong. So DC United will miss the playoffs for the 4th straight year.
Subjectively speaking, I think you are wrong about DC. I think the team looks to finish strong. Objectively speaking--while I agree that they are back on track and a team to be respected if not feared, I would think twice before calling the Crew (or anybody but the Fire, who seem to be pretty cozy) a 'lock' in this four-way dogfight. The standings are too close.
What if The Crew lose to Dallas? Have you guys noticed how much press The Crew are getting? I'm afraid of the ol' jinx making an entrance. "Oh, we'll get three points from Dallas..." Heads up. I mean, losing to Dallas at home will certainly halt any momentum whatsoever. In April The Crew were on the short list to win it all, and we all know what happened after all of the exposure. Plus, teams I like usually have a heartbreaker nature about them (read: Miami Dolphins, USMNT, Portland Traiblazers, Columbus Crew.)
Standings right now DC United 30 pts Columbus 28 pts New England 26 pts Sep 13-14 DC United v. San Jose -- 3 pts Columbus v. Dallas -- 3 pts MetroStars v. New England -- 0 pts Standings Sept 15 DC United 33 pts Columbus 31 pts New England 26 pts Sep 20-21 LA Galaxy v. DC United -- 0 pts MetroStars v. Columbus -- 0 pts New England v. Colorado -- 3 pts Standings Sept 22 DC United 33 pts Columbus 31 pts New England 29 pts Sep 25 MetroStars v. DC United -- 1 pt Standings Sept 26 DC United 34 pts Columbus 31 pts New England 29 pts Sep 27-28 DC United v. MetroStars -- 3 pts New England v. Columbus -- 3 pts for NE, 0 for CLB Standings Sept 29 DC United 37 pts New England 32 pts Columbus 31 pts Oct 4-5 Columbus v. DC United -- 3 pts for CLB, 0 for DCU Dallas v. New England -- 3 pts Standings Oct 6 DC United 37 pts New England 35 pts Columbus 34 pts Oct 11-12 New England v. DC United -- 3 pts for NE, 0 for DCU Chicago v. Columbus -- 0 pts Standings Oct 13 New England 38 pts DC United 37 pts Columbus 34 pts Oct 18-19 Metrostars v. New England -- 1 pt DC United v. Columbus -- 0 pts for DCU, 3 for CLB Standings Oct 20 New England 39 pts Columbus 37 pts DC United 37 pts Oct 25-26 Columbus v. Chicago -- 3 pts New England v. Metrostars -- 3 pts DC United v. Kansas City -- 3 pts Final Standings New England 42 pts Columbus 40 pts DC United 40 pts So then it comes down to head-to-head between Columbus and DC United. They are 1-1 to date with an even 3-3 goals. I am picking Columbus to win both their final matches which would give them a 3-1 tie breaker advantage over DCU. Playoff Matchups Chicago v. Columbus MetroStars v. New England It just seems that New England has the easiest route here. Obviously, the Oct 19th game Columbus at DC United is going to be the key game -- and in my scenario above, that's the only upset I have picked. That may not happen, but there will be upsets somewhere else. I'm going with DC United to miss the playoffs again.
Good stuff. You came to your conclusion with a little more effort than I, but hey we showed up at the same place. DC is sittin' out the playoffs again. I hope. People complain about the playoff format, but these next couple months are going to be crazy. I can't wait. I'm a little nervous for the Crew this weekend, I can totally see them losing at home. Please God No. The excitement would be the same in the West if Dallas hadn't decided to check out so early.
A "little" more effort? Yikes! In a month's time we'll know a lot more. The Burn have actually played pretty well for 80 minutes or so in both of their last two games - both losses. If they can maintain it for 90 minutes, the Crew will be in for much more of a battle than people think. (Of course I picked a Crew 3-0 win...) I guess the odds are that every other year of so some team is going to stink so bad that no matter how many playoff spots are handed out, they still have no chance. This year's it's the SouthSuck Burn. The good thing is they'll probably be back strong as ever next year, as long as Jeffries doesn't totally ruin it again.
That is exactly what worries me about this Saturday's game. I had a dream I went on vacation and forgot to record the game. It was actually a nightmare. Proof positive that I'm officially a heroin addict to another bi-polar team. Just what I need. The thing with the Byrne is this: they suck. Sure they're playing okay now, maybe they can play spoilers for one of the Eastern conference players, still too little too late. But hey, in two years they are going to have a momentous year when they get their own stadium. That won't be huge for The Byrne alone, it'll turn into another Step Forward For Soccer in America. Those are always fun.
The closer and closer I get to Saturday the more and more I feel it...The Byrne are going to beat Columbus and I'm going to be miserable. Buddle will get a hat trick in the losing effort, but Brad Davis and...and uh, Jason - wait no, uh...someone else for Dallas, yeah, somone else will lead a very unexpected offensive onslaught in Crew Stadium.
Too close to call. Even the Metros are not assured of a playoff spot. With games in hand over Columbus & New England, both the Metros and DC United have the upper hand right now. But things can change dramatically very quickly. I personally think that DC United has what it takes to make the playoff and they enjoy a favorable position right now. If DC United can beat San Jose this weekend things will look much brighter for DC United. However, I would not count any team out just yet. It is going to be a very exciting end of the season.
Updated Sep 15 With the results this weekend, gotta throw MetroStars into the mix now... Results Sep 13-14 DC United 2-1 San Jose -- I got this correct) Columbus 3-2 Dallas -- correct MetroStars 1-2 New England -- wrong Standings Now Metrostars 34 pts DC United 33 pts Columbus 31 pts New England 29 pts Sep 20-21 LA Galaxy v. DC United -- 0 pts MetroStars v. Columbus -- 3 pts for NY, 0 for CLB New England v. Colorado -- 3 pts Standings Sept 22 Metrostars 37 pts DC United 33 pts New England 32 pts Columbus 31 pts Sep 25 MetroStars v. DC United -- 1 pt each Standings Sept 26 Metrostars 38 pts DC United 34 pts New England 32 pts Columbus 31 pts Sep 27-28 DC United v. MetroStars -- 3 pts for DC, 0 for NY New England v. Columbus -- 3 pts for NE, 0 for CLB Standings Sept 29 Metrostars 38 pts DC United 37 pts New England 35 pts Columbus 31 pts Oct 4-5 San Jose v. MetroStars -- 0 pts Columbus v. DC United -- 3 pts for CLB, 0 for DCU Dallas v. New England -- 3 pts Standings Oct 6 Metrostars 38 pts New England 38 pts DC United 37 pts Columbus 34 pts Oct 11-12 MetroStars v. Dallas -- 3 pts New England v. DC United -- 3 pts for NE, 0 for DCU Chicago v. Columbus -- 0 pts Standings Oct 13 MetroStars 41 pts New England 41 pts DC United 37 pts Columbus 34 pts Oct 18-19 Metrostars v. New England -- 1 pt each DC United v. Columbus -- 0 pts for DCU, 3 for CLB Standings Oct 20 MetroStars 42 pts New England 42 pts Columbus 37 pts DC United 37 pts Oct 25-26 Columbus v. Chicago -- 3 pts New England v. Metrostars -- 3 pts for NE, 0 for NY DC United v. Kansas City -- 3 pts Final Standings New England 45 pts MetroStars 42 pts Columbus 40 pts DC United 40 pts New England wins the head to head against the MetroStars 2-0-2. Columbus wins the head to head with DC United 3-1. Playoff Matchups Chicago v. Columbus New England v. MetroStars
Re: Updated Sep 15 I realize you didn't say these are sure things, but with the way LA, Clb and Col are playing, the results could go exactly the opposite of how you're picking them. In which case, instead of this: you'd have this Met 34 DC 36 Clb 34 NE 29 i.e, the Revs need points this weekend, especially since it's at home. but playing a high flying Rapids team with Chung having fresh legs after a week off, it won't be easy. will be interesting as always.
No, not sure things -- just my analysis / picks. Which means that at least 2 of the 3 are going to be wrong .
No, they haven't clinched yet, but they could clinch this weekend with a win combined with a New England loss. If New England wins, they'd be a single point from clinching with a win and a Columbus loss or 2 points from clinching with a Columbus draw or win.
The Metrosexuals will miss out again. Big home and home series v. the revs will make it interesting final week but... when it is all said and done.. I think its going to be almost as tight this year as it was last year witht he following going like this. 1. Chicago- 2. New England- 3. Columbus 4. Metros 5. DC