Peaking as the Playoffs Begin

Discussion in 'MLS: General' started by Scorcho, Oct 21, 2003.

  1. Scorcho

    Scorcho New Member

    Jan 23, 2003
    Portland, ME
    Looking back at previous years, I've found something interesting. We've all heard how important peaking late in the season is... but I just discovered how true that is. More often than not, the teams with the best records in the 5 matches before the playoffs are the ones that make it to the MLS Cup. Check it out:

    2002
    New England 4-0-1 13pts --MLS Cup Runners Up
    Los Angeles 4-1-0 12pts --MLS Cup Winners
    Colorado 3-1-1 10pts --Semi-Finals

    2001
    Chicago 4-0-1 13pts --Semi-Finals
    Los Angeles 4-1-0 12pts --Cup Runners Up
    Miami 4-1-0 12pts --Quarterfinals
    --------------------------------------
    San Jose 2-2-1 7pts --Cup Winners

    2000
    Chicago 4-0-1 13pts --Runners Up
    Kansas City 2-0-3 9pts --Cup Winners

    5 of the last 6 finalists have had the best or second best form in the league going into the playoffs. The only exception is San Jose in 2001 (and I would point out that the league took 11 days off between the season and post-season that year, because of the Sept. 11th attacks).

    That said, these are the teams with the top form at the end of this season:

    New England 4-0-1 13pts
    Kansas City 4-1-0 12pts
    Chicago 3-1-1 10pts
    San Jose 2-1-1 7pts

    It'll be interesting to see if this trend holds true.
     
  2. crestuden

    crestuden New Member

    Apr 5, 2001
    Kansas City is an interesting team. They looked to be the class of the league early on then fell in a huge slump and are just starting to turn it back on. I think they can make the push and make it to MLS Cup but I don't know if they can win it all. I put my money on the Fire, with Soldier Field back and the best talent in the league.
     
  3. ojsgillt

    ojsgillt Member

    Feb 27, 2001
    Lee's Summit MO
    Very true, but the final is played at HDC. Solider feild won't have much advantage there. During the middle of the summer their was a MLS Cup prediction thread. I called out a repeat of 2000. I may be right.
     
  4. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    Just to throw it out there so that ppl can get adjusted to the idea...

    IF (and granted this is a big IF)...

    the Galaxy plays like it did on Saturday, when for the first time things started to "click" and they carried out a game plan,

    IF...
    the Galaxy builds on this game and can come up w/ a strong game plan(s) for Spartan Stadium,

    IF...
    the Galaxy takes this momentum into KC or Denver and pulls out a victory,

    then I wouldn't be surprised that the G's take their second straight. Their problem all year has been 1. lack of an effective offensive midfielder 2. mental lapses in an otherwise solid defense 3. a general lack of .... j'en sais quoi... "clicking". If the G's can get these things together, the home field advantage at the Cathedral will be tremendous.

    That said, I personally would not bet on this. But it definitely could happen.
     
  5. SABuffalo786

    SABuffalo786 New Member

    May 18, 2002
    Buffalo, New York
    LA is definitley going to beat San Jose. This past Saturday was huge.
     
  6. Bryan Gividen

    Bryan Gividen New Member

    Mar 8, 2003
    Provo, UT (BYU)
    If Los Angeles beats out San Jose, they have the title.

    As for peaking, this is true, but there is something about the Chicago Fire that makes them seem like a step above everyone else. They've been consistent throughout the entire season and I think if they can really turn the heat (no pun intended) up, they can cruise through the finals.
     
  7. PZ

    PZ Member

    Apr 11, 1999
    Michiana
    Club:
    Ipswich Town FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    MET 2, SJ 0
    SJ 0, COL 0 (OT)
    SJ 0, LA 3

    How can the Smurfs be considered as one of the choices for teams that are peaking?
     
  8. JMMUSA8

    JMMUSA8 New Member

    Nov 3, 2001
    Webster
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    they shouldnt be, everybody know they choke at the end.

    The hottest team in the league is def the revs. 4 straight wins and 5-0-1 in the last 6, 6-1-1 in the last 8. Revs have to be considered a team to go far because of their end of the season surge, so don't be suprise if they are playing in LA on the 23rd of Nov.
     
  9. Scorcho

    Scorcho New Member

    Jan 23, 2003
    Portland, ME
    I didn't mean to imply that San Jose is peaking. I put them on the list because they are a team many have predicted to make it to the Cup. But I certainly agree, they are NOT peaking. The L.A./San Jose series is starting to look more interesting after the Galaxy's win last week. If players other than Ruiz continue to score, LA will be dangerous. But I predict they won't make it far if their only production comes through him. The same can be said about Colorado and Spencer. Kansas City's success will depend on their defense... so will New England's. As for Chicago, if they continue to underestimate New England, they will get burned.
     
  10. lufty

    lufty Member

    Aug 21, 2000
    YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST....

    KC v. NEW ENGLAND :)
     
  11. BenC1357

    BenC1357 Member

    Feb 23, 2001
    KC
    If the "post season streak" theory is true you're right on. I am still not convinced, even after 4 straight wins, that KC has what it takes to get a result in Colorado and beat SJ on the road. Now if they squeek by CO and get LA at home, I like our chances.

    And IF KC did make it to the Cup, we've got Chicago's number. :) New England I'd be worried about because Chris Brown would do something like score a hat trick...
     
  12. JMMUSA8

    JMMUSA8 New Member

    Nov 3, 2001
    Webster
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    no need, hes injured, but you have to watch for Fabbro and balls ricocheting off of him and into the net.
     
  13. FlashMan

    FlashMan Member

    Jan 6, 2000
    'diego
    Club:
    --other--
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    why? it was the most meaningless game of the whole season.

    the "season" starts nov. 1. everything else is just blather.
     
  14. JMMUSA8

    JMMUSA8 New Member

    Nov 3, 2001
    Webster
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Its one game out of 30. Not impressive enough in my book. The season series is 1-1-1, with goals aggregated goin to LA with 4-2. That means SJ only let up one goal in the first two games of the series. But what am I talking about, San Jose chokes in the playoffs last year against the Crew, so I guess its possible for them to choke this year against LA. That being said, I'll give you my predictions on the playoffs

    First Round
    West

    SJ vs LA, LA wins - SJ not good in the playoffs of any kind, i mean they lost to the Sounders in the Open Cup, LA may be bad, but they arent A League bad.

    KC vs Col, Col wins - This was a tough decision to make. KC is hot now and should take that right into the playoffs and Col is fizzling out, but playoffs is a time where the hero's shine. Harkes picked Spencer for MVP, and i think he'll show MLS fans why. Tight series, high scoring.

    East
    Chi vs Clb (or DC) - Chi wins - First off I think it will be Clb in and not DC. DC has not scored enough non-set piece goals to make it into the playoffs. But no matter who it is in this series, Chicago wins hands down. Dave will prepare this team well and will have two convincing wins to show why they are #1 in MLS.

    NE vs NY - NE wins - NE has owned NY this year (except for there mishap at home, which i believe will play a huge part of this series). I don't expect any different as the Metrostars have been slumping in the scoring department lately. With NE being the hottest team in the league (earned 16 out of a possible 18 in their last 6, 19 out of 24 in last 8, including two 2-1 victories against NY in NY) I believe they will roll into the first round with a tie or win in NY and a win at Gillette.

    Second Round
    West

    LA vs Col, Col wins - Colorado has won the season series against LA 2-1-1 with aggregated goals being 4-4. Another close series but the lack of midfield that LA has shown this year will result in their loss.

    East
    Chi vs NE, NE wins - Will Beasley's comments come back to bite him in the ass?, I think so. Revs have dominated the season series against Chi winning it 2-1-1 with an impressive 10-5 aggregated goals ratio, including a 5-1 win (worse defeat ever in Fire history), and a previous 3-0 win. NE has the best record against Eastern Conference opponents and that will lead them to MLS Cup for the 2nd straight year.

    MLS CUP
    NE vs Col, NE wins - A new star will emerge and he's Twellman's buddy. Pat Noonan, probably the most underrated rookie in MLS will take over the helms of scoring and get the goals the Revs need to win it all. A close game but the Revs midfield will be strong enough to shut down Col powerful trio.

    And of course all of you know that I would pick the Revs, just like I did last year. And look happened last year.
     
  15. uclacarlos

    uclacarlos Member+

    Aug 10, 2003
    east coast
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    Spain
    but it was the way the G's played. It was the fact that for the 1st time there was a cohesive game plan. They showed SJ's weakness. I don't see SJ winning the whole thing, unless they address their slowness and vulnerability to counterattacks.
     
  16. PZ

    PZ Member

    Apr 11, 1999
    Michiana
    Club:
    Ipswich Town FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I guess if the Smurfs consider the Shield meaningless.....
     
  17. AriesFlame

    AriesFlame New Member

    Nov 28, 1999
    Minneapolis, MN
    Won't argue with your analysis, but you're forgetting that the regular season means nothing come playoff time.

    Here are my predictions:

    East

    (#1) Chicago v. (#4) DC/Columbus: Both United and the Crew gave the Fire a difficult time this year, with the Men in Red winning only once against each team so far. Neither team, though, seem to want the #4 seed and did their best to give the other team the right to face Chicago. The Fire are gaining momentum at the most opportune time, not just winning games but hardware in the process. They've had nightmares at RFK (MLS Cup 2000 still gnaws away at Fire fans), but the Fire are neither the Cubs nor the Red Sox.

    Barring any wayward BarnBurners running onto the field and grabbing the game ball or Damani Ralph snapping and buggy-whipping Ray Hudson into the 5th row, the Fire should handle the Crew or United without much trouble.

    (#2) NE/Metros v. (#3) Metros/NE: As much as the Revs fans want to believe in a repeat performance of 2002, the going will prove to be a lot tougher this time around. The Metros, while inconsistent, are a dangerous team when on their game and will punish any team that doesn't put them away early.

    This matchup is difficult to call, but the loss of TnT could very well tip the scales against the Revs if overtime is required.

    (#1) Chicago v. (#2/#3) Metros: This match looks like a whitewash, but observant fans should remember that none of the regular season games were blowouts. The Fire won the series by a total of 3 goals. Coach Sarachan would be derelict to underestimate Coach Bradley's desire to upend his former team. Dropping the Open Cup only adds to the Metros need to beat the Fire.

    As the semifinal will be at the New Soldier Field, that desire is not likely to be satisfied in front of possibly 30,000+ fans. The BarnBurners should start looking at flight schedules to Los Angeles (just stay away from Florence and Normandie).

    West

    (#1) San Jose v. (#4) Los Angeles: Galaxy fans are justified in taking comfort in last week's win against the Quakes. San Jose is in dire need of a pit stop before they lose their tires on the final turn. Points have suddenly become hard to come by. However, the Galaxians need to remember that LA has found numerous ways to lose on the road (some of them not their doing).

    A whipping like last week could help the Galaxy survive the trip to the Bay. Anything less will mean the end of their title reign.

    (#2) Colorado/KC v. (#3) KC/Colorado: A tale of two cities' teams. It was the best of times for Kansas City (More fans coming in, new players, and an MVP candidate in Preki). It was the worst of times for Colorado (1 point in 6 matches, Grimandi bidding adieu before he even bade bonjour, Zizi Roberts playing like a member of ZZ Top). Maybe the correct reference should be the movie "Trading Places" going into the playoffs. The Rapids, while leveling off lately, are a serious contender for the Cup while the Wizards have beaten themselves more often than any other team.

    This matchup looks like a candidate to end in PKs, but Colorado may end things in Mile High before the Wizards can formulate a response.

    (#1) San Jose v. (#2/#3) Colorado: This match would have upset written all over if it were in the thin air of Denver. In the tight confines of Spartan Stadium, however, the Rapids can only hope for some luck to carry them past the Quakes and into Victoria Street.

    Ultimately, Donovan may take it upon himself to force the Rapids fans to find other avenues of entertainment over the fall (Hey, the Broncos and Avs aren't too bad. The Nuggets--hey, the Broncos and Avs aren't too bad).

    MLS Cup 2003

    Chicago v. San Jose: One team fought numerous injuries and National team commitments. The other fought low expectations and numerous departures. Each team has a forward tandem that merits constant vigilance (Razov/Ralph for Chicago, Donovan/DeRosario for San Jose), defensive lines that are rarely prone to mistakes, and goalkeepers who are not easily or cheaply burned.

    In the interest of journalistic integrity, I will refrain from making a prediction. The best team, however, will definitely makes sports history.
     
  18. Beakmon FC

    Beakmon FC Member+

    LA Galaxy
    United States
    Jan 10, 2002
    The OC
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Just Think: If the MLS had followed the 'advice' of many 'experts' on Big Soccer, the season would be done and the Chicagofire would be champs....nothing left for us to discuss.....

    PLAYOFFS RULE!!!
     
  19. JMMUSA8

    JMMUSA8 New Member

    Nov 3, 2001
    Webster
    Club:
    New England Revolution
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    i 100% totally agree, MLS needs European qualities (no overtime, etc) but should keep playoffs because I've always said, the best time in sports is playoff time.
     
  20. Goodsport

    Goodsport Moderator
    Staff Member

    May 18, 1999
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp But San Jose didn't choke the year before, earning them more trophies than the Revs have ever won to this day. :rolleyes:

    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Honestly, the Earthquakes may win it all this year or they may not, but past playoff performances are not much of an indication of how any team will do this year in the playoffs.


    -G
     

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