https://soccerment.com/expected-threat/ Expected threat (xT) is essentially a machine-learning model that uses ball-location data to measure how much a player’s actions increase (or decrease) the chances of a goal being scored by the team in the next 5 actions. Thus, it is, in a sense, measuring how much a player’s actions progress the ball into more dangerous locations. So it is a complex measure of a player’s value in ball progression and playmaking. Not surprisingly, by this measure, Messi is elite both as a passer and a dribbler: The chart shows Messi increasing attacks’ threat with passing more than anyone else and increasing attacks’ threat with dribbling more than anyone, in the 2017-2018 season. There’s also data in the link on the 2020-2021 season, where Messi has the highest combined expected threat total per 90 minutes, but it looks from the charts like there may have been 2 or 3 people that season with higher xT from passing specifically (but Messi overcome them in total due to having higher expected threat from dribbling). This once again shows Messi being an absolutely elite playmaker, as it is squarely a playmaker’s job description to move the ball into more threatening positions, and Messi is clearly the best in the world at it. _____________________________ Relatedly, that same link includes the following chart as well, which relates to a similar measure of how much a player’s actions (including passes, dribbling, as well as losing the ball) adds (or subtracts) to the danger of attacks: Specifically, on the x-axis, this chart shows Expected Offensive Value Added (xOVA) for the 2017-2018 season. Expected Offensive Value Added is a machine-learning-driven model that basically takes any pass or shot a player makes and measures the expected goal value of the shots and the expected assist value of the passes (i.e. measures the chance that a pass to a player in that exact location/scenario would end up being an assist), and then it subtracts the expected assist value that existed each time the player received the ball. This therefore is a slightly different way of measuring the amount that the player increased (or decreased) the team’s chances of scoring from where it was when they received the ball. Since it uses xG and not goals when a player ultimately shoots, this measure is unaffected by the player’s actual finishing if they take a shot, but instead just measures the value added by the offensive actions made by the player leading up to that shot. It is therefore essentially a measure of playmaking (including for ones’ self). In any event, the individual data points on the chart aren’t labeled with their names, but we can tell that the upper-right-hand corner one is Messi because the chart maps xT on the y-axis and we know from the prior chart that Messi is the one with just above 0.35 in combined passing and dribbling xT. Thus, we can tell that Messi was #1 in this measure as well in that season, since the data point that is him is also the right-most point on the chart (i.e. it has the highest xOVA per 90 mins too). As such, Messi is the best playmaker by another complex measure.
Continuing with this, there’s actually more complete analysis of the latter-described measure above (Expected Offensive Value Added—see my above description of it). See the following chart for xOVA for 2017-2018 through 2021-2022: As we can see, Messi is 1st in this measure by a significant margin. Again, this measure is essentially a measure of attacking contribution, which basically seeks to measure how much a player’s actions increased the chances of a goal being scored by himself or a teammate (again, see my above post for more description). https://soccerment.com/the-very-exclusive-xova-club/ ________________________ Data-Driven Analysis of Messi’s Role Interestingly, on this question (which shouldn’t actually be a question) about whether Messi’s positioning and role is that of a playmaker or not, this article also refers to something called The Clustering Project—which seeks to define players’ roles using tons of data. It is described as follows (in red): “In The Clustering Project, recently written together with Antonio Gagliardi (foreword by Fabio Paratici), we outline a new framework for player classification and characterisation, moving away from traditional player roles based on position within a formation, towards a data-driven approach based on players’ actions on the pitch. We have identified 13 clusters of players who cover broadly similar functions on the pitch, according to stats related to defence, build-up, chance creation and finishing. Each outfield player is clustered on the base of his performance metrics which determine his inclusion in a cluster, however certain players may share similar traits to more than one cluster (i.e. Mbappé is a hybrid between a Mobile finisher and a One-to-one explorer). The players’ clustering profile is evaluated on a seasonal basis (so a player may switch cluster across different seasons), the total value is calculated through a weighted average across seasons with the most recent one being the most important.“ So this is a highly data-driven way of defining what a player’s role is. And this model assigned Lionel Messi to the “Chance Creator” cluster. Yet more evidence that Messi’s role is one of a playmaker.
I like you as a poster mate for sure and remember you made many good posts. Would you say there is some kind of similarity between the bolded parts I'm quoting though? Maybe I'm in the middle of the debate (although trying to stay out of it I suppose still, so hopefully I'm not risking dragging myself back in now). I do think the era he played in and the Barcelona team boosted his stats and gave him an ideal platform (for a while at least), and I do think he's not one of the most creative/inventive players, and I even think that it's true that in some games he didn't do a lot really special but came away with mega stats (the famous Leverkusen game for example).....but I think he does have special abilities of his own, and that his overall capabilities/effectiveness are somewhere towards the top of the all-time list, and that at his very best he does look like a 'different than normal' player. Whether a video like this could be made for Messi I'm not sure ....but on the second part of the series below, at 6:17 the purpose is not to highlight the Messi goal but it is actually a special goal not many players would come close to scoring (and on another similar Pele comparison video - maybe not one of the ones above? - I know there was a Messi dribble into the area that also stands out genuinely as a special play - it might have been the one at number 1 on the video below, but number 2 also shows a nutmeg combined with a dribble that would come into the stand-out top quality player category I think to be fair for example) 20 Lionel Messi Dribbles That Shocked The World | HD - YouTube I doubt a good video of this type could be made for Messi either (and it's only Real Madrid footage I think IIRC): But having said that at this point I'd concur with Messi having been better at peak as well as over career I think, compared to Zidane. One player can be more of a genius, and the other can still be better of course. If we're talking about Pele I'd think different still personally (as hard as it is to compare - obviously not as hard as it is to compare a Giussepe Meazza to a Messi though for example, where the instinct/assumption from me included is probably to think well Messi at his best was probably better, even though some testimony and even a little bit of footage can point to Meazza being to some degree both a bit of ball control wizard and creative inventor, and a very good dribbler who scored a good amount of goals including solo goals!)
Its called efficiency which allows him to put the numbers in all aspects of attacking football that you cant comprehend or straight out deny. Its okay not prefer his playing style. Thats taste. But to deny that he is the most dominant player of this generation club and country is silly. He has no equals except Pele.
Ronaldo wasnt his rival until Real won 3 ucls in a row and Portugal won Euro 2016.. Its team success. Thats not even the best Cristiano. 2017 ucl is the only campaign of those in which he did something remarkable and its his greatest legacy.. there is really no debate between Messi and Ronaldo. And Cristiano is better than anyone in last 25 years
You really think Messi doesnt have creative plays? The other guy is troll but to not think Messi in 15 years elite football hasnt compiled vast majority of creative plays is a stretch. Do you want to go there really? First goal nutmeg Etc.. it is difficult to find clips of single play, but there are countless that come on top of my mind.
I didn't mean to say he didn't have any at all, no, and I almost mentioned the Champions League run in 2014/15 for some such moments, such as nutmegs and skills in midfield. I don't think I used the best Zidane video actually to be fair - we know there are others that show predominantly his ball manipulation skills and ideas though (which was what I was referring to, and I do think he has a wider and deeper repertoire in those areas than Messi does).
Of course. Obviously Zidane is more stylish at manipulating ball in the same place and air.. zidane is better at being Zidane than messi and Messi has built his legacy on producing repetitive but unstoppable moves but should he be penalized for that? His other mvoes be overlooked? Compared to the likes of Robben, Ribbery, Hazard, Iniesta, etc.. Messi is much more creative and has a wider range of "skills" than them, but his other abilities outshine creative plays because those win games. This is just another angle to Messi being so good that he has standards of its own. People run out of things to criticize him for..
Of course Messi isn't a normal footballer (he is one of the greatest), but he hasn't surpassed everyone in history either. There's enough evidence to suggest that. Not the best in overall career stats. For example: Not close in 5-year peak (interestingly, Pele was assisting at the rate of Messi and Maradona combined!): Not close in goal contribution in finals: Statpadding in Spain (data from Transmarkt) Performance in el clasicos for example: One can go on and on with the data, which clearly show that both you and @moodiomemo are exaggerating (at extreme ends). Countering one exaggeration with another is not very prudent.
Repped both posts, because I think they both have merit - like I say I feel like I'm kind of in the middle on this (maybe it could have been perceived more on the 'anti Messi' side....until the bar was moved on that!). It's true I think that Messi has an element of Robben, plus an element of Iniesta, in one player, when at his best. Neither Robben or Iniesta are normally put into any GOAT or 'best ever' debate though to be fair....
IMO he is Robben (with ultra-dribbling) + Iniesta +creative genius + free-kick top ability+ great penalty taker and supermentality (late in career)
I feel like in some respects/situations Iniesta is probably a better creator, in other ones Messi (so not completely that Messi is better in that area).
TELLING THE TRUTH IS BEING BOOMER?????? OMG THE WORLD NEED TO END ...AHHHAAAA . ILL PRAY FOR YOUR GENERATION .LOL YOU YOUNG KIDS DO NOT HAVE IDEA WHAT MARADONA REPRESENT , RIVELLINO REPRESENT , ZICO AND PLATINI REPRESENT BUT AS YOU SAID IN YOUR POST THIS IS YOUTUBE TIMES (MIDIA AND NUMBERS AND LIKES ETC) DO YOU REALLY BELIEVE A ROCK N ROLL BAND TODAY IS BETTER THAN ROLLING STONES, LED ZEPPELIN OR METALLICA BECAUSE THIS BAND HAVE 30.000.000 LIKES IN YOUTUBE MESSI NEVER WILL BE BETTER THAN ROMARIO ID LIKE TO SEE MESSI IN IPSCHWICH , LOGRONES, IN BAHIA(BRAZIL) OR IN EMPOLI ID LIKE TO SEE IF MESSI WILL MAKE THESE TEAMS TOP THE WAY MARADONA DID IN NAPOLI ILL SAY IT FOREVER HERE AND I HOPE EXIST A YOUNG KID HERE TO PROVE IM WRONG - MESSI IS A NORMAL FOOTBALL PLAYER. HES NOT SPECIAL AND NOT A GENIUS WHAT THE LEGACY MESSI LEAVE TO THE SPORT???? NOTHING HE DO NOT CHANGE NOTHING. HES NOT MAKE ANY REVOLUTION AND HE NOT LEAVE LEGACY HE WAS PUT AS NUMBER 1 BY THE PRESS AND THE MIDIA HES A FAKE PRODUCT CREATED BY THE MIDIA
ZIDANE IN THE FIELD AND WHAT HE REPRESENT FOR FRANCE IS TOTALLY INSANE LEVEL COMPARED TO MESSI .ZIDANE IS MILES AHEAD AS PLAYER , LEADER(MESSI LEADER???? LOL) AND COACH MESSI IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EUROPE IN ARGENTINA HE DIVIDE OPINIONS MESSI BOUGHT WITH EUROPEAN PRESS A LOT OF FAKE GOLDEN BALLS AND HE HAVE MORE GOLDEN BALLS THAN ROBERT DE NIRO OSCARS LOL
NUMBERS , NUMBERS AND NUMBERSS IN THE FIELD MESSI MAKE SOME STUFF AS ZIDANE , ROMARIO, RIVELLINO??? WHAT THE WONDERFUL PASS MAKE DID IN YOUR CARRER???? PLEASE SHOW TO ME HERE OKAY FROM THIS SHIT GENERATION CR7 DEBRUYNE INIESTA ETC HES TOP NUMBER ONE....TO YOU GUYS...LOL AHHAAAAAAAA WHOS THE ALL TIME PLAYER FROM CROACIA????? WHATS THE BIGGEST FOOTBALL PLAYER CROACIA DID? IS BETTER THAN PELE, MARADONA??? WHAT HIS LEGACY??? HEY KID STOP TROLL OK YOU SAID IM TROLL THE FORUM BUT THESE ARGUMENTS DOESNT MAKE ANY SENSE IM CHALLENGE YOU PLEASE PUT A VIDEO HERE AND CHANGE MY MIND YOUTUBE GENERATION RIGHT? PLEASE SHOW ME MESSI IS A GENIUS, A GOD , THE PERFECTION, THE MICHELANGELO DAVID PLEASE SHOW TO ME IM WAITING YOUR RETURN - WITH THE "GOD" VIDEO MAKING MARVELOUS AND MAKING RAIN
I don't think people should be perceived as being anti-Messi or pro-Messi when it comes to a discussion using data (instead of using unverifiable terms such as a creative force, having supermentality etc.). The data are what they are. Messi has put up data, which if you remove Pele from the equation, can be argued to be superior than almost anybody else's (not that I have seen data from every player). However, using data, it is also possible to argue in favour of other players depending on what one wants to consider as surrogate markers of performance (e.g., performance in finals, goal contribution, specific stats at peak etc.).
WE HAVE A PLAYER HERE AND HES ONE OF THE MOST UNDERESTIMATED PLAYERS EVER EUROPE DO NOT NOT HIM....AND THIS YOUNG GENERATION DO NOT KNOW TOO MUCH ABOUT HIM HE DESTROYS CRUYFF IN 1974 IN SPAIN AND BREITNER AND NETZER TOO(BARCELONA AND REAL MADRID) BUT HE WAS A GOLDEN GENIUS HE WAS ZIDANE BEFORE ZIDANE EXISTS AND IN THAT TIME HE WAS NOT A MIDIA GUY (HIS PERSONALITY IS QUIET) BUT HE WAS A GENIUS HE WAS IN THAT BRAZILIAN TEAM IN 1974 AND ZAGALLO WAS NOT A GOOD MAN WITH HIM HIS NAME IS ADEMIR DA GUIA (DOMINGOS DA GUIA SON) IN 1965 HE MAKE THIS KIND OF PASS AGAINT BOTAFOGO (GARRINCHA) - AT 20.22 SECONDS PLZ ID LIKE TO YOU GUYS SHOW ME MESSI MAKE A SIMILARY STUFF. A WONDERFUL PASS ITS NOT ASKING TOO MUCH WITH YOUTUBE RIGHT??
YEP HE DO NOT HAVE CREATIVE PLAYS AS A GENIUS AS HE USED TO BE ???? A WONDERFUL PASS??? PLZ SHOW TO ME BECAUSE TO YOU IM TROLLING THE FORUM BUT...WITH ALL RESPECT TO EVERYBODY (ILL NOT WANT ATTENTION) IM CHALLENGE ALL OF YOU OK PLEASE PUT A VIDEO HERE MESSI MAKING A WONDERFUL PASS AS ZIDANE BERGKAMP ROMARIO MARADONA ZICO SOCRATES ETC AND YOU GUYS WILL WIN AND I STOP TO POST HERE PLEASE CONVINCE ME IM WAITING
AHHHAHAAA THIS IS HILARIOUS I ASKED TO YOU MARVELOUS PASS AND GENIUS PLAYS . THAT TRICK NOBODY WAS WAITING UNDERSTAND??? THIS IS LONG BALLS ONLY AND THIS IS VERY SIMPLE TO "A GENIUS" I WANT A GENIUS MOMENT AND "THAT PASS" VALDERRAMA IN YOUTUBE HAVE MORE WONDERFUL SKILLFULL PASSES MOMENTS COMPARED TO MESSI AHHHAAA PLZ PUT THAT GENIUS MICHELANGELO 1000% PERFECTION MESSI MOMENT ILL WAIT FOR THE VIDEO YOU DO NOT CONVINCE ME
Why is it unfair? Exact same stats are calculated for everybody (except the statpadding stat). It is not my personal take. It is Messi's data.
Where to begin lol To not go into more in depth analysis of different eras and impact individuals could have on the pitch here are few obvious ones: There are no video records of all goals and assists for players in the past. God only knows what theyve counted in for Pele's assists, etc. It reduces players worth and impact to goals and assists. There is a whole convo on Messi being the best in terms of progression of the ball. El classico stat penalizes Messi for his longevity of career. Divide his el classico stats into 2 categories. The first 20 matches, the latter 27 matches and you will get completely different, mcuh more impressive stats for the first 20 matches.. and that is somehow compared to 6 el classicos by R9? Having 0.7 non penalty goals in 47 el classico matches is more imrpessive than 1 non penalty per game in 6 matches. Now if Messi were to leave Barca in 2014, he would seemingly be a much better performer in el classico, but would he? And "statpadding in spain". Yes. Messi stapadded in the top 2 league in the world. Where is the same data on others? Messi has very healthy distribution of goals and assists compared to opponent. There is no statpadding. What is he supposed to do? Not play or score against Eibar? And to suggest Messi is irrationally focused on padding stats against weaker teams is stupid. He is often the laziest play on the pitch in meaningless games. You must have confused him with someone else.
So, basically we should cherrypick parts of Messi's career in which he was good and look at endpoints in which he is apparently at the top, however meaningless, and ignore all the rest? If the data for other players are better than Messi's, then they must be fake. That's not how things work. I'll post his rival's data as well (with the hypothesis that there is no difference in statpadding) These sentences are meaningless and contrary to the evidence. Who might that be? There must be hundreds who have statpadded against minnows like Messi. But which one are you thinking of?