Jesse Marsch out at Leeds, rumored for Southampton job

1. Disagreed.
2. Slap Shot is a phenomenon.

Insofar as Marsch goes, him bringing in MOAR worker bees in Armas and McKennie to supplement his already hard-working side shows that he's out of his depth. He's the football equivalent of the White Sox's Rick Hahn; Hahn festishizes relievers, while Marsch wants MOAR WORKERS!!!

Leeds at the window needed:
1. A striker (Bamford sucks ass.)
2. A defensive organizer (Their defenders all suck)
3. A MF who can unlock an opponent with a pass. (Harrison is MLS quality.)


They still need all 3. Jesse shat his pants this window, and rightly paid with his job.

 

This is hastier than I thought they'd be. It's almost a 180 from the signs they were showing with the recent player investments. And the result at Forest, in isolation, wasn't particularly bad.

But they could just never seem to have gotten over the hump under Jesse, in spite of the promise they showed. He was a very stubborn bloke.

This is a blow to our coach's rep in the EPL/Europe. It wasn't a disaster. But it was another underwhelming tenure.

For Jesse, I don't know what's next. I wouldn't take him for the USMNT after the rigidity he showed. Unless, for whatever reason, he wanted to be an assistant. But I could see the timing aligning for him actually being hired as the manager.

The player implications are more important. Much of our core is now stuck at Leeds. We don't know how they'll be received by the new manager, and if they'll fit the system as much. Hopefully it's not some bunker survivalists or slow possession guy & he has some track record for rating Americans. Otherwise this could be a disaster for us.

 

Forest was a must win I guess.

 

I wonder where Marsch will end up now. MLS? Maybe as an assistant somewhere within the Red Bull organization? Giving Ted Talks?

 

I know some people hate these sort of stats, but I'll post them anyway.

Table based on Expected Points (and actual Table Position in Parentheses)

https://understat.com/league/EPL

1. Man City (2nd in EPL)
2. Arsenal (1st in EPL)
3. Newcastle (4th in EPL)
4. Man United (3rd in EPL)
5. Brighton (6th in EPL)
6. Tottenham (5th in EPL)
7. Brentford (7th in EPL)
8. Liverpool (10th in EPL, with 2 games in hand)
9. West Ham (16th in EPL)
10. Chelsea (9th in EPL)
11. Aston Villa (11th in EPL)
12. Leeds (17th in EPL)
13. Fulham (8th in EPL)
14. Leicester (14th in EPL)
15. Wolves (15th in EPL)
16. Southampton (20th in EPL)
17. Nottingham Forest (13th in EPL)
18. Crystal Palace (12th in EPL)
19. Everton (18th in EPL)
20. Bournemouth (19th in EPL)

There are two teams that are underperforming their expected points by 5 or more spots in the table (West Ham and Leeds), and two more overperforming them by that amount (Fulham and Crystal Palace, though Palace's actual points are nearly identical to their expected points).

Roughly three quarters of the table (14 teams by my count) are almost exactly where their expected points would predict them to be, which tells me that this is actually a pretty useful stat.

The question is whether the few outliers -- including Leeds -- are outside of that expected range due to coaching decisions (and it certainly could be poor in-game management explaining a lot of dropped points), or due to luck that will eventually even out. But those stats to me at least suggest that Leeds' table position did not reflect their overall play.

 

can any of you who follow leeds super closely confirm or deny that armas was retained while some of the other assistants are out with jesse? and can you tell me on a scale of 1-4 how interesting that is (the scale is actually to 10 but i cant care about assistants more than a 4 in any scenario)?

 

Let's put aside our American hats for a minute.

Jesse was unable to adapt to the league - and after the opposition realized counter pressing at Leeds had not changed and that Jesse is not an attacking type of coach in terms of fluidity and structure ... it was only a matter of time till multiple coaches (NForest and others) had their systems in place to brush Leeds aside. Just contain their attack and eventually they will implode with the killer goal they yield.

the biggest concern is that his team looked like they knew they could not routinely score. I think what spelled his end was the psychology side of it.

All coaches have to learn to adapt ... even Pep and Klopp know this. Jesse did not and Leeds started to look like they lost confidence in him.

 

That's an excellent question. All I can do is go back to the eye test. Leeds didn't play smart when I watched them. THAT is on the coach.

 

He was retained for now and there's some chatter he's going to be the interim until they find someone new. I imagine he'll be out once the new coach comes in though.

 

This is good and comes back to what I think was the biggest issue in that Leeds struggled to translate good performances to results. They had a number of games where they outplayed their opponents where it wasn't translated in the final score.

One of the reasons I thought he was more secure is that it was reported in the Athletic (including as recently as this week) that the board was very much aware that the teams underlying numbers were good and they thought it'd eventually even out.

 

IIRC, RasenballSport Leipzig also underperformed its xG under Marsch.

This is definitely the type of stat that is positive if it happens over a short period, but that flips if it continues over months and months.

 

I think Jesse was somewhat the victim of Red Bull's willingness to move him up so quickly. I think he's a very charismatic guy, I think he's good at the leadership aspects of the job and I think he buys into RB 100%, so he rocketed up.

The issue is that I think the continued promotions didn't really let him work through and adapt to some of the areas he's probably not as good in. At Salzburg, his European results were lacking compared to Rose before him and the guy who came after. Leipzig and Leeds have been an issue.

I think his next spot, if he wants to get back to the top, should be a place where he can learn and improve whatever gaps he has.

 

It will be interesting to see where Marsch lands next, after being fired from his last two jobs...

Jesse Marsch’s next job now important to his future trajectory. Sacked in Leipzig after a few short months & sacked (reportedly) by Leeds after less than a year. Where does he fit & will he get a chance to work at another European club that fits his ideas?

— Derek Rae (@RaeComm) February 6, 2023

 

No result in isolation is usually that bad, which is why you can't look at it in isolation. I don't know that it will "hurt" American managers rep in the EPL, because I'm not sure there is anything positive to hurt. FWIW, I think Marsch is not even as good a manager as Berhalter, who at least did make the US defensively solid and his possession based game is about defense and not offering chance to the opposition. I can't see Marsch's system ever working at a high level because you have to basically be superior at every position for it to function, and so much of the passing in it is just terrible, knocking it forward as quickly as possible almost without regard for what is in front of you.

 

The PL is sometimes just too damn cutthroat.

(1) Leeds, on talent alone, are a bottom-half PL team. No one would have predicted that they were competing for Europe, and the goal all along was to avoid relegation.

(2) Leeds are near the relegation zone, but they still haven’t even been in the relegation zone. For a bottom table team, you have to expect that they’re going to move up and move down on where they should be from time to time.

(3) Leeds have struggled for problems with injuries. All clubs struggle with injuries, of course, but some clubs get harder than others. I don’t think Leeds had the maturity or depth to account for their injury issues, and they always needed some luck to keep their best fit.

(4) Leeds are incredibly young. They need time to mature. No one should have looked at this team and thought, Leeds are in their peak years. It won’t be for another 2-3 seasons before they reach that point.

(5) Leeds have won some good games, and they’ve made every game a fight. Of course, I get it. No one cares what the scoreboard says, so long as the job gets done. But at the same time, no one has yet to wipe the floor with Leeds nor embarrass Marsch.

(6) If Ten Hag could hold onto his job at Man Utd, with the squad and resources they have, and with the poor results Man Utd started off with, you have to say, the American received a lot harsher treatment, and he was fired a lot sooner than some other managers.

That said, I blame Marsch for not bringing in a better center forward in the winter window, and not upgrading their defense. Of course, I like the idea of an all-American PL team, but Leeds did not need Weston McKennie. They needed someone who could score. And someone who could prevent the other team from scoring. That was it.

 

Maybe the fair expectation was a draw. The game played like a draw. They lost by 1. Typically with firings there's a breaking point, and that comes off a particularly unexpectedly bad result. Like losing at home to a fellow relegation-battler or a drubbing of any kind. I don't think the Forest game was any additional info to draw from. If he was going to be sacked, it already should have happened.

We're in a process of trying to build a positive rep when it comes to managers and players at the top level, no? This was a speed bump, at least, in that goal.

Marsch was better in the same league and did solidly in the Champions' League with Salzburg.

As far an offense or defensive based system goes, it's 6 in one half, and half a dozen in the other. The goal is balance. Neither really had it. I mean we scored 2 intentional goals in 4 WC matches. We were really hanging on by a thread. Turner saved a goal v. England & Zimmerman v. Iran, otherwise we don't even meet expectation.

It's a very flawed system, but I don't think that's an accurate characterization of his approach at this point. You described more their Salzburg style of getting it forward with longer fw passes, after TO's. Marsch played plenty of possession after the takeaways at Leeds. It was just a high line w/ misfits at cb & rb that did them in. The bad finishing is somewhat characteristic. Maybe a product of them being tired. Then he made bad in-game adjustments when they were tired.

I also don't think the system requires them being better. It's more of a try-hard system for over-achievement of clubs with out a lot of talent. It works better against good teams, until they tire, then it requires them to sub generously and sit-in to hold the lead (which he didn't do so often). But then they shouldn't open themselves up to the counter against weaker sides. And he almost always did. That was his undoing.

 

I mostly agree with the rest of your post but I don't think the Ten Hag comparison is a good one. All Man U had is two poor games to start the season, but nothing more than that. And in game 3 they beat Liverpool and it's been fairly smooth sailing since then.

Man U also brought in Casemiro after those first two losses, and Leeds doesn't have the resources to bring in a player of that caliber.

 

Well, he is available.... /s

 

could not agree more.

the Forest manager simply had Jesse's number and Leeds ownership and the fans could easily see that. And it was not the first time. It is a results based business ..... I do think Jesse needs to come back to the States and reinvent himself - to include being much more adaptable and cerebral (a little less emotion and more tactical in his thinking) ....

 

Well said. Hopefully going forward the Arteta example will loom larger for fans and owners.

 

Any word on whether it was out of the blue from Marsch’s POV? I wonder if he had an ultimatum and knew it was coming.

 

That's the good and the bad of the Premier League.

The average tenure of a Premier League coach is about 2 years.

Jesse made it more than one.

Most clubs don't give new coaches much time to implement a plan. Arteta is one that really was, and Arsenal is reaping the rewards.

Patience runs out quickly. Managers with much better track records than Marsch get fired if they're not meeting expectations. See Tuchel, who was fired despite winning the frickin' Champions League. Ranieri won the damn Premier League with Leicester (Leicester!!) in 2015/2016 and was fired shortly thereafter in 2017. If Ranieri can be fired by Leicester, then anybody can be fired.

And by the way, there are a ton of coaches who've been fired in the Premier League.................and then go on to be successful elsewhere. See Marco Silva of Fulham. Since 2017 he's been relegated/resigned with Hull, fired from Watford, and fired from Everton. Now doing great with Fulham.

 

im not trying to be a smartass but he knew his teams record. and their upcoming schedule. and his history of dropping points to teams they are talented enough to compete with.

take all those matches that could have gone either way, or where leeds had the better match, or "should" have gotten points based on league position- its bias on our part, man. it just is.

for every miracle, last gasp point they get they drop 4 or 5. ill say it again, if marsch were polish you would not only not have a problem with this you wouldnt have even noticed he was a prem manager. im speaking generally, to all those who cant get their heads around this utterly predictable firing of a manager who consistently leaks points. at no point in his leeds tenure has he done above the absolute bare minimum, and that was once. barely.

 

?? Struijk got burned on the wing because he's as nimble as an aircraft carrier, then made an unnecessary foul when a teammate was covering for him, then botched a clearance right to the goal scorer in the span of a single play.

 

The issue here that is an interesting perspective but I haven't heard mentioned is that Leeds was pretty perfect for him. A team that was actually used to playing even MORE pressing than Marsch does - Bielsa is probably the only manager in the world who runs a more intense pressing system than Jesse - already had players drilled in that style and mostly recruited for that style.

So you would think that along with a summer transfer window and a winter window where they invested in players that fit that style, Marsch would be able to show us all his style can work and get results.

Well, they didn't. What was it, 2 wins in 19? You can quote me any stat you want. That will get anyone fired and it is deserved.