2023 Breakout Youngster

Discussion in 'USA Men' started by TarHeels17, Jan 30, 2023.

  1. TarHeels17

    TarHeels17 Member+

    Jan 10, 2017
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Not to steal @Patrick167's thunder, but everyone seems to be yearning for a new thread, and with the European season underway and the Club World Cup starting in just a couple days for Seattle, I didn't wait to wait any longer.

    U22 (2001 and younger) with less than 10 USMNT caps is what we are calling a youngster.

    Here are the previous winners:

    2016 Christian Pulisic
    2017 Weston McKennie
    2018 Tyler Adams
    2019 Sergino Dest
    2020 Giovanni Reyna
    2021 Ricardo Pepi
    2022 Joe Scally

    I don't believe there was an official vote, but from reading through the comments last year, it appears Scally was the most mentioned guy who was technically eligible, although the merits of his year being truly "breakout" are up for debate. That's 2 years in a row where the winner wasn't clear, and also isn't currently a lock starter (technically it's three years in a row for the latter for reasons that will hopefully be long behind us at the end of the year, but I digress).

    Following in the steps of @Patrick167, here's the top 10 most likely candidates to win with no further explanation (based on my previous track record in these threads, I fear for these players' 2023s):

    Keven Paredes
    Justin Che
    Quinn Sullivan
    Taylor Booth
    Cade Cowell
    Paxten Aaronson
    Josh Wydner
    Jonathan Gomez
    Tanner Tessmann
    Nico Tsakiris

    It skews towards attackers because, as we saw previously in the year Pepi beat Richards, winning as a defender is difficult. We also have more foresight this year, given that the January window is effectively over, a month of European soccer has passed, and we've had a January camp come and go.

    The following players within the age bracket would be considered ineligible:
    Gio Reyna (by caps and former victory)
    Ricardo Pepi (by caps and former victory)
    Yunus Musah (by caps)
    Joe Scally (by former victory)

    I would also consider Balogun to be ineligible, since he's already broken out, but has yet to commit. I personally would make the same argument against Tillman, but I would understand if others disagreed.
     
  2. TheFalseNine

    TheFalseNine Moderator
    Staff Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Jul 15, 2014
    Norman, Okla.
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Love this thread, one of my faves. Thanks for keeping it going!
     
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  3. TheFalseNine

    TheFalseNine Moderator
    Staff Member

    Arsenal
    United States
    Jul 15, 2014
    Norman, Okla.
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Based on the massive sample size of one match, I’d say Taylor Booth was in the driver’s seat. :)
     
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  4. Southern Man

    Southern Man Member

    Jun 14, 2008
    I think Cade Cowell is the most ready to make an impact, but I don't know if he will get the opportunities needed to shine.
     
  5. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #5 Clint Eastwood, Jan 31, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 31, 2023
    ITs a weird one. Cuz he really did break out in club soccer in 2021 when he was a starter in the Austrian Bundesliga. And was called up to the senior USMNT for their friendly against Bosnia that year.

    Then he fell off the face of the earth as Bayern stashed him in their reserves.

    Now he's back. Based on age eligibility, he's there.
     
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  6. TrustingtheProcess

    Philadelphia Union
    United States
    Jun 11, 2021
    Philadelphia, USA
    Yeah, I think Bayern's pettiness really cost him a WC spot. He's was hell of a player with Bayern II and in Austria.

    He really settled into the Netherlands after a somewhat rocky first two months.
     
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  7. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    Its kind of funny that Musah has not been acknowledged for this despite being the best at a younger age than all of those listed here and still currently younger than most of the candidates including Booth.​

    I guess Musah fits into a new category: too good to “break out”, and would make him the top US prospect of all time.
     
  8. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
     
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  9. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    I think the big issue there is that Musah didn't commit to the USMNT until the spring of 2021. Then he didn't officially become cap-tied until the fall of 2021 (because Berhalter didn't use him in the summer of 2021 tournaments).

    There were a bunch of options in 2021. Voters were slave to a recency bias as Pepi had JUST made important goal-scoring contributions in WCQing when we did the voting. Musah was just as important for the USMNT in that 2021 WCQing (although wasn't picked for the first window).

    Chicks dig goals.....................

    I happened to think Chris Richards would also have been a better candidate in 2021 based on his play at Hoffenheim. But Chris didn't have the USMNT impact in 2021 (due to injury) that Pepi did.
     
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  10. gray2cm

    gray2cm Member

    Aug 11, 2012
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    I agree that this should be Booth. He's really playing at a high level in Holland right now.
     
  11. deejay

    deejay Member+

    Feb 14, 2000
    Tarpon Springs, FL
    Club:
    Jorge Wilstermann
    Nat'l Team:
    Bolivia
    I don't particularly care about Musah and Balogun for this thread. I will only be voting for youngsters developed in our YNTs or in the US itself. It needs to be said that most years the winner has been a player in the BL. It's probably going to be Paredes this year.
     
  12. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    Musah was receiving limited minutes at his club when he was getting called in to the national team. Gattuso gave him a larger role last season.

    If this acknowledgement or award cannot capture Musah’s performance at the World Cup and lead in to the World Cup, in which he was our youngest player ever to receive those kinds of minutes, then what does it actually capture?

    Just because there is an arbitrary set of rules doesn’t mean that those rules mean anything, and if they do not capture the best player in the group in which you are trying to quantify, then the rules deserve to be tossed out.
     
  13. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    You love to make this point, but as someone who voted for Pepi, I wasn't slave to anything. He broke out more than Musah in 2021 in the sense that I think he progressed more, and he was more valuable in 2021 WCQ than Musah. People forget that Musah wasn't great at his club in the early going.

    What players did after, or who is the better prospect or even who is the better player is only relevant in my voting terms of the breakthrough aspect.

    That's all. We view it differently, not that those of us who voted for Pepi are idiots who are slaves to recency bias.

    (And please don't talk about Pepi's goalless streak at the end of the year. Yes, I know. But if that's your reason, I evaluate 2021 as a whole, and it'd be you was was overrated recency.)
     
  14. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    It's not a best young player award.

    It's a breakout youngster award. And you need rules, because without them you spend much more time debating the defintiion of youngster and breakout (which we still do because the definition is limited) than the player.

    US Soccer already has a best young player award, and not shockingly, Musah won that.

    If folks have idea for alternate rules, that's cool. But I think no rules just degenerates. I doubt Yunus Musah cares.
     
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  15. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #15 Clint Eastwood, Feb 1, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2023
    I didn't vote for Musah, because I personally thought he broke out in 2020. :) He was actually better for Valencia in the first half of the 2020-2021 season than the second half.

    I'm an FCD homer, so of course love Pepi. In 2021, I voted for Chris Richards. I thought he was playing at a higher level in club soccer at his position in 2021 than Pepi was at his. But the USMNT contribution of Pepi was superior to Richards.

    There's no right or wrong answer here. Every voter will have their own definition of impact. Some will value club impact as much or more than national team impact. Scally managed to win in 2022 with little to no national team impact. The point with Musah was that he didn't fit as neatly into a nomination year as some other players. Pepi 100% broke out in both club soccer and the national team in 2021.

    Musah was nominated by people in 2020, 2021, and 2022. :)
     
  16. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    It seems that the rules did not include the biggest break out opportunity of all: the World Cup.
     
  17. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    #17 Clint Eastwood, Feb 1, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 1, 2023
    Anyway, I'm totally with the original poster's nominations for 2023.
    It sure seems like Booth starts the year in the lead. However, Paredes is rapidly catching up as he plays in a superior league.

    As the year progresses, national team impact will be an interesting determinant. A player could have a great U20 World Cup, Nations League or Gold Cup to really convince voters. Just like how Pepi's performances in WCQing in 2021 pushed into the #1 spot on a lot of ballots.

    I would add to the nomination list...............Chris Brady. He looks set to potentially be the starting keeper for Chicago and the US U20s at the World Cup this year. By the end of the year, we could be pretty excited about him.
     
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  18. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    By the way, Utrecht already realizing they may not be able to hold onto Taylor Booth. He may be in a bigger league for the second half of 2023.
     
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  19. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    At the risk of starting an off topic fight, I thought Musah was disappointing at the World Cup. Of course, I expected a step forward.
     
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  20. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    These are all good predictions. Paredes has a huge edge in that if he breaks through at Wolfsburg, he's already at the highest levels. Booth looks like the real deal, and Brady should beat out Spencer Richey for the Chicago job.

    If January camp wasn't a mirage, Cowell could have a monster season. Carrizo -- who may got with Argentina -- is rumored to be starting preseason for NYCFC. I'd be a little surprised if that holds true simply on size, though.
     
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  21. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    For sure. Cowell, and plenty of other young MLSers, are potential breakouts. We could make a big long list. Edelman for NYRB. Neal with LAG. The list goes on.

    But all are playing catchup to Booth and Paredes.

    If voters have a Euro-based guy to vote for, they typically do.

    [Or an imminent Euro move, like Pepi in late 2021.]
     
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  22. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I'm not really going to give Booth extra credit for the Eredivisie over MLS. I think it is a better league, but not so much so that it overrides gaps in performance, and it's a pretty open, offensive league so the counting stats are probably not that different.

    The Bundesliga will be different. But Paredes will have to take more PT for that to really come true, I think.
     
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  23. Clint Eastwood

    Clint Eastwood Member+

    Dec 23, 2003
    Somerville, MA
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    I think Booth has a good chance to start the year with an exceptional campaign in the Eredevisie, impact the USMNT at the Nations League and/or Gold Cup, make a move to a top 5 league in the summer.................and by the end of 2023 be a regular contributor there.

    But who the hell knows. That's why this thread is fun. And every poster has different considerations. For instance, I might convince myself that Booth actually broke out in 2021. He was a regular in the Austrian Bundesliga and earned a USMNT callup to the Bosnia friendly. Its possible that if there's another great breakout, I can be convinced to send my vote elsewhere..................
     
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  24. NietzscheIsDead

    NietzscheIsDead Member+

    NO WAR
    United States
    May 31, 2019
    NO WAR
    He was generally praised as a break-out performer abroad. It was his coming out party internationally, which would probably be one of the most important elements to consider for an acknowledgement like those are attempting to make in this thread.
     
  25. gogorath

    gogorath Member+

    None
    United States
    May 12, 2019
    I'm a Taylor Booth fan. I was wrong about him in the youth ranks, when I didn't think he was special. Once I saw him in Austria, I was impressed. The skill was always there, but he had more speed and dynamism than I remembered.

    And I'd definitely call him up. But I will say that he's far more of an attacking player -- and a ton of his games this year have been at winger -- than he is an 8. That ups his competition for the USMNT if the coaching staff doesn't see him as much as an 8. Not that that is everything.

    The other piece is pretty simple. The jump up to a Top 5 league -- which I expect he gets -- definitely may require some adjustment. Heck, movement to any new team sometimes requires adjustment. De la Torre, who was pretty good in the Eredivisie if less goal producing, took six months. Pepi has similar goal production, and we don't know if he's ready.

    That's why I think Paredes has an edge. He's had his six months already. If he grabs a spot at Wolfsburg, Booth likely has to get that move AND deliver in one year. Tight timeline is all.

    I definitely wish he was more of an 8, but he definitely seems to be moving forward more.
     
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