I believe it just says that they will qualify through Nations League. Since there's a semifinal, it makes sense four of the six are from there. But I don't think anyone has said how those last two get determined.
Right. A lot depends on how times 5 and 6 are decided, but before that is the draw. So if the teams that qualify are Cuba, T&T, Hair and Guatemala (maybe French Guiana). The pots for the draw are from CONCACAF rankings, not where the teams finished in the 22-23 completion, I think. So as of now, something like: Pot 1: Mexico, US, C. Rica, Canada Pot 2: Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras Pot 3: Guatemala, El Salvador, T&T, Cuba (French Guiana might be more likely than Guatemala right now.) This assumes that Panama doesn't jump Canada between now and the draw. And El Salvador might move up to pot two. I think ALL results (not just NL games)are included in the ranking so depending on when the draw is, the Gold Cup might be really important for some teams.
Gotcha. Thanks. So it's possible to get El Salvador. But it's going to be incredibly unlikely to get Canada or Mexico, unless Canada collapses. I'm just assuming that Canada is too talented not to get through their group -- they have Honduras at home.
Well it’ll depend how seriously they take it, but it’ll be a good test for MLS if they do. Interestingly the SPI Club Rankings have both LAFC and Philadelphia above River Plate and a number of MLS teams (and Argentinian teams) ahead of Boca (who SPI rates quite lowly despite them currently leading the league). It has the top Mexican teams and top Brazilian teams way ahead though. I think the top Argentinian teams are probably better, but I don’t think they will be several levels above. With the Argentinian teams I think the league overall is down and with the economic situation in Argentina (inflation has been as high as 100 percent), I think alot of players have been trying to leave (see Alan Sonora trying to come to MLS).
Based on current Concacaf rating which is how they make pots, and likely group B winners: Pot A: Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Canada Pot B: Panama, Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras Pot C: Guatemala/French Guiana, El Salvador, Trinidad/Nicaragua, Cuba/Guadeloupe For the easiest possible groups, you're probably cheering on Canada to manage to go 0-2 this window to get relegated and move Panama into Pot A, and for French Guiana (ranked 15) to hold off Guatemala (9) in League B. Then you are looking at something like: A: Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Panama B: Jamaica, Haiti, Honduras, El Salvador C: French Guiana, Trinidad/Nicaragua, Curacao, Cuba/Guadeloupe
I think this is right, but Canada wouldn't be guaranteed a place in pot 1, even if they win their group. They have to finish top four in the index. Still seems likely, but that would depend on all of their results compared to Panama, not just the NL finish. (But that's only if Concacaf does the 23-24 NL draw the same way as they did for the 22-23 version of NL.)
I doubt the South American clubs will take it very seriously. They don't consider the USMNT or MLS clubs as serious opponents, but more like a Caribbean minnow or San Marino.
A possibility that the next coach should be unwilling to accept. "We choose to go to the World Cup, not because it is easy, but because it is hard. Because that challenge is one we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win." -- Gregg "Bounce Pass" Berhalter
It is just not a true statement that South American countries think of the USMNT “like a Caribbean minnow or San Marino.” I think you’re probably right that the clubs won’t take it seriously, but because they view MLS that way.
Speaking of the next coach... If the timeline for the hire really is the end of summer then the first games the new coach has with the team might be the fall fixtures for 23-24 Concacaf nations league, meaning these games are suddenly much more important. A three-team/four-game group that will determine whether we get to participate in a huge tournament taking place in the US.
You might be correct since this WC has had its field expanded too much. But South America has only had its number of spots increased by 1.5 to 6. Oceania is now even guaranteed a spot. If the US played all its qualifiers at home then you are pretty much correct but by having to play away I do mot think we would do well in COMNEBOL particularly playing away. I think that the only conference where the US would come close to being a surety for qualifying is Oceania. We would not qualify out of Europe and Asia or Africa would be no better than a 50/50 shot. As much as I would like to see the US playing meaningful matches away from home and as far as possible away from CONCACAF there just is not even one conference, except Oceania, where we would have a better chance to qualify that CONCACAF. But the WC has now so diluted the talent that the initial qualification process is less important. That alos means that there will be more bad to horrible matches at the next WC.
That's a ridiculously pessimistic take, considering that we've advanced to the knockout rounds in four of our last five World Cup appearances. A team that generally expects to advance to the knockout rounds is a team that has a good chance of qualifying from any confederation.
In fairness, FanOfFutbol has the late comedian George Carlin as his avatar pic, so you should expect him to be cynical at a minimum.
Put a trophy on the table and South Americans will fight for it. And, well, I kind of hang out with South Americans - I'm married to a Colombian, our region has an enormous Brazilian population - and I can tell you that the footy fans among them no longer consider MLS a joke.
Mexican teams were very competitive in Libertadores, so I believe SA teams will take it serious, won't be a top priority but something to do to hopefully raise the team's international profile. It seems they will qualify though regional club competition. Is MLS already at a place were you expect team to be among the top two in the region? I hope C'bol adds 6 C'caf teams on a permanent basis; I just think C'bol's Copa America should be played in SA. Hopefully they will iron out C'caf future participation.
I kind of expect there to be some sort of playoff among the second place teams to determine who plays in the Copa America participants. They can play those games the same window as the championship final four are played.
I'm guessing a lot of that has to do with Brazilian dominance of the Libertadores now that the economics of Argentinian teams continues to worsen. Boca won the league but it wasn't in very impressive fashion and was more down to everyone else stumbling. I don't know about the Mexican teams though. They definitely throw a lot of money around at least.
Good news, if true: Edgar Moreno @ConcacafEdgar The 2024 Copa America will be an officially added to the FIFA Calendar for both Conmebol & Concacaf which means all the clubs will be obligated to release players for the tournament even for the six Concacaf members.
With the amount of spots we have now, yeah probably, but in the traditional WCQ and seeing that the US tied in points with Costa Rica against much weaker teams, I really doubt that. I don't know how seriously most will take it, there were a lot of cups in south america that were official but people really never cared (Copa Nicolas Leoz, Copa Master, Suruga Bank)
The clubs releasing Concacaf players will be (rightfully) livid if true. It would mean seven consecutive years of mandatory player release for major tournaments: 2021 - Gold Cup 2022 - World Cup 2023 - Gold Cup 2024 - Copa America 2025 - Gold Cup 2026 - World Cup 2027 - Gold Cup It's madness. Plain and simple. If a joint Copa is going to be a permanent fixture going forward, at least one of the Gold Cups needs be axed (or taken off the calendar).
While we might all agree with that, CONCACAF never will as fhe Gold Cup is their primary revenue generator. I will say it is likely the US sends a B team to the Gold Cup this summer, while the Copa America will be as strong a team as we can send.
This is where FIFA, in theory, steps in and tells Concacaf that they can't have their cake and eat it. At least if they want to retain some semblance of being a somewhat balanced regulator that considers the interests of all (including the clubs). Three competitions (2 Gold Cups, 1 Joint Copa) on the FIFA calendar per cycle on top of the World Cup is just too many. But of course Infantino's FIFA has more often than not chosen a confrontational path with the clubs. It's not a strategy that is going to work out in the long run. Not for FIFA. Not for the confederations.
Well it’s not the Gold Cup that will determine if we qualify, but this fall’s Nation League. Which I expect we will send our best players to.