News: Camp Cupcake - Post WC 2023 Edition

Discussion in 'USA Men: News & Analysis' started by Eighteen Alpha, Nov 3, 2022.

  1. no exit

    no exit Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Nov 20, 2019
    I don't watch a ton of Liga MX, so this is a pure stat review, but I'm a bit tepid on Zendejas. This year we're talking about someone who's a teench above-average in creating goal or assist opportunities (60th percentile), above average in progressive passing (69th), and is an elite outlet (90th percentile in progressive passes received). He also a plus in terms of defensive activity.

    So we're talking about a pretty good but seemingly not elite winger in Liga MX. A decent comp, statistically speaking, would be Paul Arriola -- who's a bit of a bete noire for many in the fanbase. Of course, doing it in Liga MX is more impressive than doing it in MLS, but then again it's less impressive than in a top Euro league. He seems like a solid depth piece but not a contender as a starter, unless he has another massive step forward left in him.
     
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  2. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I haven't seen Zendejas in years since he played for FCD but Arriola is a good comparison. He may be more skilled but I'll have to wait and see. Both are terriers and every team needs a few of those.
     
  3. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    He's borderline elite in goals/90 relative to position - it's 92nd percentile. 37th percentile for assists though. Tends to look for his shot. But when he doesn't, I've seen plenty of accurate passes. Something to build off.

    The possession #'s are pretty good. I don't see the carrying #'s anymore, but he's seemingly a plus at that. And we miss it when it that's out of the lineup.

    He's good in duals. Don't know about pressing. So it would even out. He'd not be a total defensive liability, to benefit from contribution in attack & position.

    Arriola is a poor comparison. He never had more than 2 goals in a LigaMX season. Zendejas has been at 4+ in 4 straight samples. You're also talking a rangy, effort guy vs. a skill one.

    It's also not necessarily more impressive really that he's doing it in Liga MX. MLS may have more talent at this point. LigaMX is more competitive on the daily. It's not linear. Some players are going to do better in one, others in the alternative. It's not useful data, beyond a jumping off point.

    I'm relatively agnostic about his future, while sharing there's some intrigue despite his profile, and I can see analogs of the better versions of his style that have been pretty successful in the game.
     
  4. no exit

    no exit Member+

    DC United
    United States
    Nov 20, 2019
    Sure, the goals are elite. But as we've seen from Jordan Pefok and others, we should care about the expected goals. And there, Zendejas is above average but not necessarily a standout.

    Arriola's MLS numbers are a perfectly fine comp. Arriola last year was 75th percentile in xG+xA in MLS; Zendejas 60th in Liga MX. Both of them were 85+ percentile in progressive passes received. Arriola was 52nd percentile in progressive passes...Zendejas 69th (certainly a solid edge there.)

    Basically, run down the numbers for Zendejas, you're looking at an above-average guy relative to the competition. The question is how impressive you find the competition. Obviously it's better than MLS but somewhat worse than the best Euro leagues -- which means something like "depth, but not a starter" is a perfectly reasonable and correct projection.
     
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  5. thedukeofsoccer

    thedukeofsoccer Member+

    Jul 11, 2004
    Wussconsin
    Club:
    AFC Ajax
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    XG, to rate individual performance, is junk science. What the Pefok situation tells us is to not get lured by a small sample & for many players finishing confidence runs in streaks. In Zendejas' case, he's scored across 4 apertura/clausuras. That's not a small sample. It's who he is now, and possibly almost always. He warrants credit for that. He can score, at least in LigaMX.

    If this is where the data points are leading you, you need to go back to the drawing board w/ these being your criterium. Because style-wise, they're quite different players. Arriola isn't technical or nuanced in his game but he's relentless and at slower speeds he can hit a shot or pass.

    Zendejas is going to be more effective in a possession game when he can find the ball and operate thru smaller spaces, Arriola on the counter when he has space. That means the style of team and league is going to translate better for one or the other.

    Where you're going to see the vast difference statistically is in possession and out. Zendejas is plus in a vast majority of possession categories, while Arriola is in the negatives. But Arriola can make runs to stretch the d. And he can pressure. While Zendejas can ball win. Decisively wins in his area, Arriola out of it.

    It's a pretty pointless comparison.

    Again, you're saying things like "it's obviously better than MLS", when there are counterpoints that make it far from obvious, like MLS spending more $ and producing more talent than Liga MX these days. But LigaMX has more passion + still some degree of pro-rel. Presence in those leagues v. the other just doesn't tell us anything either way.

    Arriola also has the negative of having proven he's not good enough/doesn't translate. Zendejas is a blank slate. He's in the category of a dice roll now. He could end up translating everything he's done in LigaMX to Copa America/WC & Spain. It's not that you're necessarily going to be a 6 at this level, when you're an 8 at a lower one. Stuart Holden was borderline best XI in MLS of yesteryear (a worse version), and then he immediately did the same thing in the EPL. So step right up!
     
  6. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  7. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    The most inform abroad was Wright with Sargent close second
     
  8. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    If Zendejas helps set the new floor at the winger position for this cycle, that's a pretty decent floor...

    Established: Pulisic/Reyna/Weah/BAaronson
    Moving up: Paredes/Tillman/Mihailovic/PAaronson
    Floor: Zendejas/Arriola/JMorris
    Others who could emerge: Konrad/Cowell/Koelosho/Clark/Gutierrez/Mighten
    Probably below the floor: Gioachinni/Mueller/JLewis/etc.

    Move a few of those guys around as you want (maybe Morris is now sub-floor, maybe PAaronson is still in the Others, etc.)

     
  9. xbhaskarx

    xbhaskarx Member+

    San Jose Earthquakes
    United States
    Feb 13, 2010
    NorCal
    Club:
    San Jose Earthquakes
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
  10. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    And those two got the bulk of the minutes at the WC.
     
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  11. Red Card

    Red Card Member+

    Mar 3, 1999
    Club:
    New York Red Bulls
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    John Tolkin is one to keep your eyes on. Left back. He has come up through the Red Bulls youth system. Very good defender. Very good fighter for loose balls. Good passer but not too aggressive offensively. Now 20 years old (4 months older than entitled Gio) he was defender of the year for the Red Bulls. Also he is mature for his age. This is probably his last year in MLS.
     
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  12. IndividualEleven

    Mar 16, 2006
    Zendajas Stats: percentile for position

    Non-PK Goals: 92
    Assists: 20
    XAG: 37
    Pass Completion %: 62
    Dribbles: 56
    Progressive Passes: 51
    Tackles: 81
    Int: 78
    Blocks: 78
    Aerials: 59

    Strong defensive numbers. Has a nose for goal.
    Pefok, Hoppe, Sargent, and Dike.

    I'd love to see Ferreria get minutes in a wide position. He has good pace and passing ability.
     
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  13. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Fair point but Philly had the best defense in MLS last year so it's probably better than any CONCACAF team. Concerning Top 15 international teams - we play them so seldom now with all the NL crap that it's hard to measure and comparing our forwards against each other shows none of them to be a solution yet. I still get your major point and that's while he has scored in MLS he needs to prove he can score on the international scene as a small forward from a secondary league. He really needed/needs to go to a top 5 league to improve now. MLS will start to be diminishing returns.
     
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  14. Pegasus

    Pegasus Member+

    Apr 20, 1999
    Club:
    FC Dallas
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Agreed and it would be great to raise the floor all over the team. The team was exhausted against Netherlands because there wasn't much WC caliber depth. Next time it would be great to be truly at least two deep at each position. I should say three deep since there are so many injuries. Lose Richards? Hopefully someone a bit better than Long is there who the coach is seemed afraid to play. DLT not 90 minute ready? Then someone just as good makes the roster so the kids get proper rotation (I actually think had Reyna not been injured so much this would have already happened but then we always have lots of injuries so we need another mid at the level - or two or three).
     
  15. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    Even though Ferreira is GGG’s #1 guy in the heart, I don’t see European clubs rushing to throw a big money at him. So far MLS exports over $20M is very rare. You can understand why Aston Villa rather using that on player like Jhon then in Ferreira.
    So far most US forwards are pretty in range of $10M-$15M. Pepe was a little inflated for sure. Maybe first one to break if he switched is Balogun.
     
  16. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I don't think Ferreria is fast, he has average speed.
     
  17. dlokteff

    dlokteff Member+

    Jan 22, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    Wrong



    edit: And it's Jayden Nelson (not John) which was later cleared up.
     
  18. tomásbernal

    tomásbernal Member+

    Sep 4, 2007
    Club:
    Portland Timbers
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    Your opinion on this differs greatly from fact. There are other things to argue about that aren't so clear, but Ferreira's speed is not one of them.
     
  19. Ghost

    Ghost Member+

    Sep 5, 2001
    Ferreira has major wheels.
     
  20. Shaster

    Shaster Member+

    Apr 13, 1999
    El Cerrito, CA, USA
    Ferreira is fast but he didn’t drive aggressively in the attack. Kind of like when Pulisic in the form or like today the new guy Mudryk in Chelsea.
     
  21. gomichigan24

    gomichigan24 Member+

    Jul 15, 2002
    Club:
    Manchester United FC
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
     
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  22. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I'm going by eye test. I can't remember him beating anyone on a foot race..
     
  23. Excellency

    Excellency Member+

    LA Galaxy
    United States
    Nov 4, 2011
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Ferreira did something I don't think I've ever seen before: He receives the ball in the box, turns around and back passes from inside the box to the center circle. That's called chance dese-creation.
     
  24. Excellency

    Excellency Member+

    LA Galaxy
    United States
    Nov 4, 2011
    Club:
    Los Angeles Galaxy
    Because Berhalter played him at the 9.

    Go to minute 2:00

     
  25. LouisZ

    LouisZ Member+

    Oct 14, 2010
    Southern California-USA
    Club:
    FC Barcelona
    Nat'l Team:
    United States
    I saw the clip. He still doesn't seem fast. The CB is as slow as molasses. My money would be on Arriola, De La Fuente, Weah, Pulisic, Jedi, Adams, etc. etc..
     

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