Herschel’s wife expected of campaign staff to achieve 50% of black vote among other things. Republicans did this to themselves. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/07/herschel-walker-georgia-senate-campaign-flaws-00072692
I believe that was Trump's fault as well, though. Trump was telling his voters that voting was rigged, and there was no point in voting. That had an effect. Without that, I doubt Warnock wins the runoff.
Going stupid does pick up new voters who would not otherwise participate, but the strategy is not without drawbacks. Take, for example, Cobb County. Its demographics are - 49% White Non-Hispanic 26% Black 14.5% Hispanic 5.5% Asian 5% Other This, roughly speaking, is how Georgians vote - White - 70% GOP Black - 10% Hispanic - 40% Asian - 30% Other - 30% Combining those figures leads to an expected vote percentage of 45.8%. But Herschel Walker only got 40.5%. The reason? Cobb County is significantly better educated than the national average. Win the dumb, lose the smart.
This is my beef with the pivot to blaming trump for everything Like yes maybe a mythical Youngkin type MAGA-lite candidate could have won off the back of Kemp, but it is not at all clear that primary voters would vote for such a candidate - they went overwhelmingly for the most crazy candidate possible. Blaming that all on trump seems odd to me, when Trump is notorious for jumping in on the candidate who looks like they will win the primary rather than any huge strategy
Hmmm. Trump went to war on Brian Kemp, and from the vote totals it appears that Trump's supporters not only showed up in November, but voted lock, stock, and barrel for Kemp. I'm really not sure how much Trump's droolings affect actual voting behavior, in either direction. I suspect that Hershel did himself in more than Trump being an impact. I mean, I don't have direct evidence for that, only the circumstantial evidence of Kemp's results, but you don't have direct evidence either, nor I think circumstantial.
The runoff I was referring to was the 2020 runoff. Election day was January 5th, 2021, a day before the insurrection, and the height of the election denier movement. Trump was practically telling Georgia Republicans that their vote didn't matter, and don't bother voting. It's all circumstantial, yes, but I truly believe if Trump had kept his mouth shut, Republicans beat Warnock (and probably Ossoff as well).
Rick Wilson of The Lincoln Project routinely mentions that the democratic party in Florida is DOA, and the republican not killing it in statewide elections in Florida would be a huge upset.
There are no better quotes in politics than the ones from the defeated primary rival’s consultant after the candidate that beat them eats it in the general. Even by that standard this is a wild quote. https://t.co/OmiGruytoJ pic.twitter.com/hiOjzWgFvC— This American Adam (@adamconner) December 7, 2022 A series of unfortunate events…
Yeah.. The media doesn't generally do the "votes remaining" correct, or, at least, they don't making it easily understandable, IMHO.
When I saw it, it was reporting about 3.4million votes and 99% reported. Another 120k votes came in after, which would make that 99% really 97%. Almost all the latest-counted votes were for Warnock in the most populated districts, He got about 80k/120k in that last bit.
You mean the runoff against Loeffler? I dunno. A lot more people voted in that runoff than in this one. I know TFG said a bunch of crap about rigging. But he also came down and campaigned for Perdue and Loeffler prior to the runoff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections has exit polls. Among married people, men voted more Republican by a little, with Republicans winning married men 59-39 and unmarried men 56-42. Among unmarried people, men voted more Republican by a lot, with Republicans winning unmarried men 52-45, and Democrats winning unmarried women 68-31. That is a net difference of 44 percent. Wikipedia does not have exit polls for the 2020 House elections, so I used the presidential election. In that case, the net difference between unmarried men and unmarried women was 19 percent, so it was much greater this year. My guess is that unmarried women got more Democratic because of abortion. Latino Men had a big change from Biden by 23 to House Democrats by 8. White women got more Democratic and were 37 percent of voters, which is up from 32 percent in 2020. Ages 18-24, and 40-49 got more Democratic, and ages 25-29, 30-39, 50-64, and 65 and older got Republican, but it some cases the difference is so small that it would be within the exit poll margin of error. LGBT or not made a bigger difference this year. LGBT went from Biden by 37 to House Democrats by 70, and non-LGBT went from Biden by 2 to House Republicans by 8. Veterans went from Trump by 10 to House Republicans by 26. Trump won people who picked "economy" as the biggest issue by 66, and House Republicans won people who picked "inflation" as the biggest issue by 43. House Republicans gained more about rural people than urban and suburban people. Democrats benefited from the percent voters who are urban going up, and the percent of voters who are rural going down. People who think abortion should be illegal in all/most cases went from Trump by 53 to House Republicans by 79, but they went from 45 percent to 37 percent of voters. Questions that were not asked in 2020 cannot be compared to now, so the remainder of this post is only about this year. Democracy in U.S. threatened voted for House Democrats by 2, and was 68 percent of voters. Democracy in U.S. secure voted for House Republicans by 6, so it was not a big difference, and was 30 percent of voters. When there are only two choices, they should add up to 100 percent regardless of rounding, and even if you round all numbers down, the sum could never be 98 like it was. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections has vote percentages for about half of House districts.
Yup. GA general: Warnock = 1.946m Walker = 1.908m GA special Warnock = 1.816m Walker = 1.719m Warnock dropped 130k Walker dropped 189k But here is what is interesting. Looking at Gov race: Abrams = 1.813m Kemp = 2.111m So in the General, Warnock was +133k while Walker was -203k In the Special, relative to the Gov race, Warnock was +3k while Walker was -392k. So relative to the governor's race, where both candidates had strong name recognition (I assume), Warnock overperformed while Walker significantly underperformed. I think the numbers (not just here) show both how weak Walker is/was as a candidate, but also how solid (strong?) Warnock is as a candidate.
Who says gen z are slackers https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/07/teen-mayor-arkansas-jaylen-smith/
Boomers.. Boomers are the ones that said they are slackers. On the other hand, people who have actually been around GenZ know they aren't to any greater amounts than any other generation.
On the flip side, we Boomers are no more stupid and self-indulgent than any other generation. Yeah sure Trump is a Boomer. But Musky is not. And GenZ will in time produce its own Trump/Musk. Sad but inevitably true.
That shit is first ballot Hall of Fame. It was funny enough to start with. I lost it at And an orphanage.
I followed the GA races via Pod Save America and I agree you can't so simply blame it all on Trump. Perdue and Loeffler were poor candidates. Especially Perdue which was revealed in his run against Kemp.
Kemp benefitted from his 'war' with Trump. I agree it is not clear if Trump's endorsement matters, but I think it does help with 'normal' voters if you can campaign with genuine independence from him - similar to Youngkin who was able to position as a non-Trump republican To me the obvious problem with Walker is he was a terrible candidate on his own merits, yet smashed it in the primary. So an issue of gate keeping in the local party.