Ecuador NT (Post-World Cup)

This is a tricky situation....

Mexico has a great base of players and they had an ambitious objective = Tata out

Germany has an objectively fantastic squad...they always have an ambitious objective. Anything less than a semifinals berth = Flick out

Belgium had an objectively fantastic squad with high expectations. Anything less than a deep run = Martinez out.

I don't know why we would assume anything different our end. The cycle is over (due to an accelerated calendar). Alfaro got us to a World Cup and it was a big achievement considering all the uncertainties before WCQ, but we got to the big dance, played some razzle dazzle ball for 2 games, and when all we had to do was win or tie...we lost and were completely outplayed for an entire half in the process which undoubtedly caused confusion and lowered morale from the whole squad. Herein lies the issue - why don't we ever aspire for more? Why do we settle for "good enough"?

Our squad, as has been said almost to the point of near exhaustion, has an unknown ceiling of potential. We sold ourselves too short, and in a WC full of surprises, we now look to have underperformed rather than actually "wowing" the tournament and the bracket. Enner was leading the scoring table. We conceded 1 goal in 2 games. We held the Dutch to 1 shot on goal (conceded a goal in the process), which is basically unheard of. These tournaments show us where the cream rises to the top...young players grow up in front of our eyes over the course of a month (Mbappe as an example in 2018 or James in 2014), but we failed. Ultimately, it lies on the back of the coach who couldn't squeeze the last drops of juice from our guys when it mattered the most.

Considering how almost every team has exposed some major tactical, physical, or general flaws in the process, the knockout rounds are ripe for major upsets. Can we say that a focused and firmly planted Ecuadorian squad is an inherently inferior team to Senegal, Japan, Morocco, USA, England, Spain, Argentina, Poland, or Australia? I leave France and Brazil out because for now, they seem to be the elite teams in the tournament (even though the French lost and Brazil without Neymar can be upset).

Alfaro is placed in an unfair position where the assumption that the team WILL improve simply because he's at the helm. Like with school or even a job, pupils and employees get comfortable with a leadership style, but it doesn't necessarily equate to guaranteed improved output. With coaches, it's a similar process. Players can get lazy and complacent with existing expectations and defense of flaws because the leader also tries to save face in the process. Coaches are brought in to stretch limits and test old assumptions with a clear goal in mind - to surpass the predecessor, AND while their positive effect/impact isn't guaranteed either, there's stability in transition (as odd as it sounds)...new ideas and fresh eyes will expose new or unseen gaps. If the team is good enough, and mature enough, they'd excel under any leadership. In that respect, who is actually considering Alfaro's flaws?

We've seen enough examples where he's tinkered with formations and lineups at inopportune times. The same issues that made us lose to Peru at home and drop points away in Venezuela. The same problems that were raised when we made tactical adjustments to an already working system against Senegal. We paid a bitter price for that gamble. Hincapie's red card is now the second in an elimination match, and while the context of each card might be different, it shows a pattern.

Some of our lads will be going to teams that are consistently playing Champions League football, and they'll be under the microscope like never before and the pressure for perfection will not be tempered with the "he's still young" rationale. If you start slacking, you'll see the bench, and good luck trying to win back confidence. The English tabloids and sports journals are ruthless. A few other countries have similarly harsh media outlets. One way or another, they're entering a pressure cooker of stress and they MUST perform. We must demand the same from them in Ecuador, and we must hold any coach to a similar standard of pressure. No more excuses.

It's also a leadership dilemma for the FEF - will they make a tough and possibly unpopular decision with a growth mindset in mind, or will they settle for more of the same? Will they put their money where their mouth is and make a splash to PUSH/DEMAND for progress?

 

1- International media sees a darling, but we still have to live with the consequences of poor decision making. Who takes accountability? Someone needs to own up to the failure, and the only course to fix it is a radical change in mentality. Alfaro is a 60 year old man with a long coaching track record/pre-set mentality of how to operate. We can get great press, but that doesn't equate to a team succeeding, and if anyone gets a pass, it develops a culture of complacency and not taking a long hard look at what truly failed.

2 - There are great teams from prior instances who might have also been robbed or been unjustly treated, but did they control their own destiny going into their last game? We can conjure up many reasons for failure, but at the end of the day, it was a self inflicted wound that killed us.

3- True, but it's the difference between coaching youngsters to overcome deficits and perform regardless of the stage- Alfaro failed on this point. Not entirely his fault since he's never been there before- the only large position he held prior to Ecuador's NT was Boca, and his results were lackluster at best. When we've had the bag in our hands during the WCQ process and were in similar positions, we always fumbled it. Remember games where all other scorelines worked to our advantage and we managed to lose winnable games? It's a chronic issue with our team. We can't ride momentum for more than a few games before something goes sideways. Since 2020, we've had 2 strings of 3 or more-game victories...
Oct 13 2020 - WCQ Home game vs. Uruguay
Nov 12 2020 - WCQ Away game vs. Bolivia
Nov 1 2020 - WCQ Home game vs. Colombia
Mar 29 2021 - FRIENDLY Home game vs. Bolivia
Followed by an away and home WCQ loss to Brazil and Peru

Oct 27 2021 - FRIENDLY AWAY game vs. Mexico
Nov 11 2021 - WCQ Home game vs. Venezuela
Nov 16 2021 - WCQ AWAY game vs. Chile
Followed by 1 friendly and 2 WCQ draws (home and away) to Brazil and Peru

The best streak we ran was from March 29 2022 until November 29 2022 with a 9 game unbeaten streak where we scored 6 goals and tallied up 6 draws + 3 wins- 1 WCQ draw vs. Argentina (matchday 18), a friendly draw vs Nigeria, a friendly draw vs Cape Verde, a win vs Qatar (WC), and a draw vs. Netherlands (WC).

It seems to me that we're dropping the games where we can really tilt the scales in our favor...someone always wanted it more than us when survival was on the line.

4- They also don't have to deal with the mental lapses and can enjoy the better parts of the team's performances without trying to pick apart the flaws to perfect a machine. Ultimately, they aren't accountable or directly impacted by his decision making.
------

It seems like we're in a relatively favorable position even with a 3 point docking to do well in the qualifiers, but where we need coaching acumen is for tournaments...the 1-month commitments that we can't seem to crack. Copa Americas are almost always failures and 2 noteworthy transitions came from this situation. No coach, since Bolillo Gomez's tenure has survived a second cycle and their undoing is usually the Copa America where we're eliminated and humiliated in the process. Bolillo left after 4 straight losses in the tournament in 2004 (replaced by LFS)- on top of a disastrous start to the WCQs. LFS was fired after 3 straight losses in the Copa America in 2007 that put him in the hot seat and then 3 straight losses in WCQs in 2007 (replaced by Vizuete).

Quinteros also failed at the Copa America and was fired when we couldn't lock down a 2018 qualification when we had ample opportunity to qualify. We know the scandal that ensued las loyalists quit the NT as a result...since then, the team was forced to radically change and things did improve. The shock therapy worked once before...we got back to the WC.

I know what I'm saying is probably unpopular, but sometimes we have to look at moderate success (qualifying to the WC and failing to advance with a hand stacked in our favor) through a more pessimistic lens to really understand underlying problems. We still have trouble scoring, we've tried many forwards and strikers (save EnnerGoat) who can't net goals, and we're looking at a completely different goalkeeper roster. World Cup Qualifiers kick off in 2023, and Alfaro can't play tinkerer anymore. He can't fix old habits.

CEOs who founded companies get voted out by their boards and investors when companies get too big for them to manage- this is generally commonplace business behavior because someone with more experience managing larger scale projects are required. Voters have the ability to push out ineffective leaders through elections (not always succeeding, but referendum votes are telling stories), and coaches get sacked for more frivolous reasons. Just look at the other side of the equation, and objectively ask yourself if Alfaro should stay on with all the flaws and issues we see. If we fail at another Copa America or start stumbling early in WCQs, what excuse will we have? When we had the chance to make a change, we gambled on a "safe bet"- prior history of Ecuadorian football shows that was always a bad choice. It's the burden of leadership that is currently saddling the FEF. I know they are deliberating some of the things we're discussing.

Remember, this is a federation that backtracked on Jordy without ever playing a match, and a federation that completely overhauled its branding and image/likeness- perhaps unpopular at first, but this a new breed of leadership. I know they're really thinking about it.

Alfaro might choose to retire and go back to commentary...we don't know what's in his mind. If the Ecuadorian press can get into his head, imagine what the scrutiny was like in the WC. It's exhausting and might have broken him. We don't know until he says something. But what I see is weakness...he's a mild mannered man who leads kids with an empathic heart. Having met him on 2 instances, the guy won't be ready to lead these same guys when they are in another echelon of their game. In a few years, those young men on the NT will count in their ranks superstars who will think and operate differently. Back in the day we saw Mendez, Hurtado, and others undermine coaches and hold their own agendas for how to lead the squad internally...the coach couldn't manage bigger personalities and the team suffered as a result.

We need to prepare for a future where we'll be dealing with celebrity footballers. We used to only count 1, maybe 2, massive names in our ranks...we might have 5-8. Alfaro, to me, is not that man. If he stays, I'll support the decision and hope we can really improve, and it'll be the happiest moment to admit my error. I just have a feeling this won't go over well.

 

I'd say the only issue with overconfidence is when it's actually not backed up on the field. Otherwise, it's just understanding self worth and entering the pitch with a winner's mentality. That's how Real Madrid or France walk on to the pitch every game...and they win far more than they lose.

 

Maturity and humility don't always align cleanly. In fact, there's clear conflict in many cases.

I'd say the most important element to Maturity is EQ. This is where we typically stumble as a team...and also as a region (LATAM) / the developing world.