Well, we're now down to our final ten matches of the 2022 MLS season. And that means only one thing: The Chase... is ON. Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 48 13 +26 (9, 75) MTL 43 13 +2 (9, 70) NYC 42 12 +18 (10, 72) NYRB 37 10 +7 (9, 64) CLB 34 8 +5 (10, 64) ORL 33 9 -8 (9, 60) MIA 33 9 -9 (9, 60) ------------------------------- NE 33 8 +2 (10, 63) CIN 33 8 -3 (9, 60) CHI 30 8 -6 (9, 57) CHA 29 9 -9 (9, 56) TOR 29 8 -6 (9, 56) ATL 29 7 -3 (10, 59) DC 22 6 -20 (10, 52)
Interesting observation... if you go by PPG, Orlando would be the only team with a negative GD that would be above the line. New England is currently 8th, but would be 6th on PPG, and they have a +2. They have the exact same GD as Montreal, and Montreal is currently in second place.
We *should* see teams eliminated fairly soon, amirite?Five teams can finish with a max of 59 points or fewer. Miami and Orlando currently just above the line and they can finish with a max of 60. Of course, this makes the assumption that teams win out. We know they won't, but the crystal ball can make a few probably-safe predictions on the teams currently at the very bottom. Our next three games *should* be winnable which will definitely put the hurts on them. Barring epic collapses, Philly and Montreal are all but in. My way-too-early prediction: We're in, but it'll come down to the last week to determine if we get a home game. In reality, there's probably about 9-10 teams playing for 4-5 spots. It'll be a fun few weeks.
Not THAT soon. It would take a minimum of four matchdays for DC, who's at the bottom of the pile, to be eliminated. That's if they take no points and the last teams in take maximum points. As for us... there's going to be a lot of shuffling for the middle of the pack, us included. We have a game in hand, and those points could get us into a points tie with the Bulls. We're also one disastrous weekend away from being in 9th.
We have a chance to win next 3 games and make a move . With NyCFC faltering we absolutely could move up to 2nd in the east best case scenario. I also think we could get hot and win MLS. However the congested schedule (3 mid week games) and how healthy we are come playoff time means everything. If healthy fully we can beat anyone. If we have injuries we can easily fall apart and miss the playoffs. Going to be fun and nerve racking at the same time
Crewster Point standings through Sunday: EAST Philadelphia 9 Montreal 7 NYC 6 NYRB 1 Columbus -2 New England -3 Orlando -3 Cincinnati -6 Miami -6 Chicago -6 Charlotte -7 Atlanta -7 Toronto -10 DC -17 WEST LAFC 15 Austin 12 Salt Lake 4 Dallas 0 Minnesota -1 Nashville -3 Portland -6 LA Galaxy -6 Vancouver -6 Seattle -7 Colorado -8 San Jose -12 Kansas City -13 Houston -14
8/16-17 LAFC 1-0 DC ATL 1-2 NYRB TOR 2-2 NE NYC 1-3 CHA DAL 1-0 PHI Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 48 13 +25 (8, 72) MTL 43 13 +2 (9, 70) NYC 42 12 +16 (9, 69) NYRB 40 11 +8 (8, 64) CLB 34 8 +5 (10, 64) NE 34 8 +2 (9, 61) ORL 33 9 -8 (9, 60) ------------------------------- MIA 33 9 -9 (9, 60) CIN 33 8 -3 (9, 60) CHA 32 10 -7 (8, 56) TOR 30 8 -6 (8, 54) CHI 30 8 -6 (9, 57) ATL 29 7 -4 (9, 56) DC 22 6 -21 (9, 49) * Toronto actually has played one more game than Chicago, but they have the tiebreaker on GF for the moment.
So does FC Food Lion print up t-shirts for the first time they don't win the wooden spoon (but still miss the playoffs)?
I think the ship might have sailed on a home playoff game. NYRB picked up their 11th win last night. Not sure we can get 4 more wins than them down the stretch on top of making up 6 points (7 to avoid the tiebreaker). Barring complete collapse, we'll make the playoffs. It looks like we're just one of the bunch of mediocre teams that with a bit of luck make the playoffs and if not, just miss out. It would be great if we could start putting a string of wins and good games together. The time to start playing our best ball is now.
This is a biennial Molino "hot boy" year, which means he will be forcing his way into the lineup any time now and becoming that third threat we need....ON TOP OF the fact that it's also a biennial Caleb Porter success year. The stars have aligned in 2022! What remains to be seen is if those 2 most crucial factors combine to make us a late season juggernaut.....or they cancel each other out and were still just the same mediocre Crew team that went out this transfer window and acquired 1 good player hoping it would be enough to make the playoffs.
I'm not making any predictions about this, but I don't think it's as dire as you're making it out to be. We have two matches in hand on them. If we win those, we're tied on points with eight other matches left. All we'd have to do is be one point better over the course of eight games. Like I said -- not a prediction. I'm not convinced we're anywhere near consistent enough to bank on anything.
I don't quite agree that we're out of the running to host a playoff game. We have two games in hand on NYRB, so there are the six points we need to match them. Then we're just looking at keeping pace and beating the Jersey Boys when they come to The Dot (which, given our home form, does seem like a big ask). Looking at our schedule, I think we're in a decent spot to jump up to fourth: vs Atlanta @ Cincinnati vs Miami vs Chicago @ Montreal @ Miami vs Portland vs NYRB @ Charlotte @ Orlando If we play up to our potential, I'm not afraid of any of these team. Aside from Montreal, all of our road matches come against teams below us in the standings. As for the home games, NYRB is probably the toughest matchup. Still, I'd assume we need max points from the next four games to claim one of the top four spots. And, you know, it'd be nice to figure out how close out games when we have the lead. On the flip side, NYRB play five of their last eight at Red Bull Arena, but they have a worse home record than we do. They also play Montreal, Philadelphia, New England, and NYCFC down the stretch. That being said, I'm not sure we're considering the correct NY team. I think there is a reasonable chance that NYCFC drops out of the top four. NYCABC have been mostly ungood since Ronny Deila departed: (I think NYCFC's record under Deila this year was actually 8-3-2 with a +15 GD but close enough) They haven't won a match in nearly a month. They're on a three-game losing streak. Five of their last nine are on the road, and they ain't exactly road monsters. Obviously, losing Taty has also hurt. On top of that, we have a game in hand; that brings us three points closer to their 42 if we take care of business. Of course, we'll still need to bridge that five-point gap. Either way, we are in a prime position to get that fourth spot. It is, as you said, time to start playing our best ball. SUNSHINE!! Long story short:
Well, @KCbus and @chr1st you've convinced me. If we concede that Philly and MTL are locks for top 4 at this point then we are fighting with the 2 Yorks and the Revs. None of us have more than 2 wins in the last 5, so there isn't a lot of heat coming form any of us. We have the most favorable schedule of the bunch. All that is in our favor. My trouble is that we haven't won 2 in a row all year, our bench is about as impotent as can be, and a couple teams below us, namely TFC and Cincy, are starting to look like they may be figuring it out. I'm not sure our Only IX will have enough juice to nudge us up from the 1.42 ppg team we've shown we are through 24 games to the 1.6 or so that will be needed for a top 4 finish. It's going to be fun to find out though! Let's Go CREW!!!
Our game in hand is basically the completion of the game at Charlotte. If we win that, we're in good shape. Or if we drop points there, we could regain them elsewhere but that makes it harder. Anyway, we should get a home playoff game in round 1.
After Saturday, 8/20: RBNY 1:1 CIN DC 0:6 PHI (WOW) MTL 4:0 NE (ALSO WOW) MIA 2:1 TOR Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 51 14 +31 (7, 72) MTL 46 14 +6 (8, 70) NYC 42 12 +16 (9, 69) NYRB 41 11 +8 (7, 62) MIA 36 10 -8 (8, 60) CLB 34 8 +5 (10, 64) NE 34 8 -2 (8, 58) ------------------------------- CIN 34 8 -3 (8, 58) ORL 33 9 -8 (9, 60) CHA 32 10 -7 (8, 56) CHI 30 8 -6 (9, 57) TOR 30 8 -7 (7, 51) ATL 29 7 -4 (9, 56) DC 22 6 -27 (8, 46) Toronto had been on a roll; I'd be lying if I said I didn't like the fact that their jets got cooled a little bit. This Wayne Rooney thing is really working out for DC, ain't it? Montreal now unbeaten in seven. Miami unbeaten in five.
Sunday, 8/21 CHI 0:2 NYC CLB 2:2 ATL CHA 1:2 ORL Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 51 14 +31 (7, 72) MTL 46 14 +6 (8, 70) NYC 45 13 +18 (8, 69) NYRB 41 11 +8 (7, 62) ORL 36 10 -7 (8, 60) MIA 36 10 -8 (8, 60) CLB 35 8 +5 (9, 62) ------------------------------- NE 34 8 -2 (8, 58) CIN 34 8 -3 (8, 58) CHA 32 10 -8 (7, 53) CHI 30 8 -8 (8, 54) TOR 30 8 -7 (7, 51) ATL 30 7 -4 (8, 54) DC 22 6 -27 (8, 46) Orlando with a win late on the road, which jumps them all the way up to 5th.
Sunday, 8/27 NYRB 3:1 MIA CIN 2:2 CLB PHI 6:0 COL CHI 0:2 MTL CHA 0:2 TOR Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 54 15 +37 (6, 72) MTL 49 15 +8 (7, 70) NYC 45 13 +18 (8, 69) NYRB 44 12 +10 (6, 62) ORL 36 10 -7 (8, 60) MIA 36 10 -10 (7, 57) CLB 36 8 +5 (8, 60) ------------------------------- CIN 35 8 -3 (7, 56) NE 34 8 -2 (8, 58) TOR 33 9 -5 (6, 51) CHA 32 10 -10 (6, 50) CHI 30 8 -10 (7, 51) ATL 30 7 -4 (8, 54) DC 22 6 -27 (8, 46) Starting to see some real separation between the top 4 and the rest. Toronto still has work to do, and not a lot of games left to do it in. But if they manage to sneak in, they're going to be the proverbial team that no one wants to play.
After Sunday, 8/28: ATL 3:2 DC ORL 2:1 NYC NE 1:2 LAG Points Wins GD (Games remaining, Max Points) PHI 54 15 +37 (6, 72) MTL 49 15 +8 (7, 70) NYC 45 13 +17 (7, 66) NYRB 44 12 +10 (6, 62) ORL 39 11 -6 (7, 60) MIA 36 10 -10 (7, 57) CLB 36 8 +5 (8, 60) ------------------------------- CIN 35 8 -3 (7, 56) NE 34 8 -3 (7, 55) TOR 33 9 -5 (6, 51) ATL 33 8 -3 (7, 54) CHA 32 10 -10 (6, 50) CHI 30 8 -10 (7, 51) DC 22 6 -28 (7, 43) How long until we give DC the Spoon?
This is so messy and really not looking particularly good for us. We only have more wins than DC. If any of the teams below us get warm, they are very likely to have the tiebreaker against us. We've gotten 3 ties in the last 3 games against 3 teams below us in the overall standings. Two of which are eastern conference hopefuls. We also have a surging Miami 2x in the next couple weeks and Montreal, the hottest team in the league over the last 10 matches. We really need a win vs Miami on Wednesday.
On a positive note, Miami is pretty poor away from home. And Chicago, after a mini hot streak has become, well, Chicago again. Only one goal in their last 3 games, and they played a man up the entire second half at the weekend. A minimum of 4 points should be expected from these two games. Anything else would be a huge disappointment. Maybe Caleb would view that as negative, but at some point this team needs to perform near the level we are told that they are at.